Donald Trump to Speak to Nashua NH Sold Out Chamber of Commerce Business Expo Today – Telegraph to Carry Speech Live – Latest PPP Poll Analysis

Donald Trump will speak at the Nashua, New Hampshire Chamber of Commerce today – the event, a business expo at the 700 member Chamber is sold out. The Nashua Telegraph will carry the event live on its website at www.nashuatelegraph.com/topics/trumpnashua. Trump will be speaking at the event luncheon, which will take place from 12 to 2.

Trump, has indicated that he will make an announcement regarding a run as a candidate for the GOP 2012 Presidential nomination, after the end of his realty TV show, “Celebrity Apprentice”. Trump, who began by polling at the top of the GOP pack when included in 2012 polls, had fallen to 6th place in Public Policy Polling’s May 10th National poll. Although the pollster has been described as “a firm with connections to prominent Democrats”. and is known to lean towards Democrats, it is usually, towards the end of any given campaign cycle, accurate within the margin of error. The pollster’s releases have focused heavily on the Obama birth certificate issue, when including Trump in its polls and specifically highlighting the issue in connection with trump in all releases.

The latest poll of 602 likely GOP voters included Trump on Question #5 for favorability; with a 34% favorability rating, 12% unsure. Palin had the highest at rating at 61%, besting Gingrich, Romney, Trump and Huckabee. In the 6th question Trump is included in a field of eight candidates and one category: undecided – he places above Michele Bachman and Tim Pawlenty, ties with Ron Paul and polls behind Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin and Romney. Mike Huckabee takes the lead on this poll with 19%, 11% was undecided as to any of the potential announced or unannounced candidates. The poll included the question of the President’s birthplace with 48% of respondents believing the President was born in the U.S. (Public Policy Polling). In the prior National Poll released in April Trump was not included in the favorability questions, rather thrown in on Question 9 as a "finally what if?" question. The pollster has included Trump on all State polls since April: polls are available here.

Although jumped on by the media as “proof” that Trump has taken a dive among GOP voters nationwide, Trump’s political fortunes are subject to the reality of the economy and specifically Donald Trump. It remains to be seen how the media will cover the speech today at the Nashua Chamber: expect questions regarding Trump as a “racist” on his questions on the Presidents birth certificate and or the latest PPO poll. The media has taken a keen interest in Trump; which has taken away some of the vitriol aimed at Sarah Palin. Huckabee, who also has yet to announce due to contractual arrangements with Fox (similar to Trump and Palin), has enjoyed the least scathing coverage by the general media. Should Trump, who appears to be rather thick skinned when it comes to the media, announce his candidacy, (based most likely on internal polling, which one can bet the house, is taking place), it will be interesting to see how the media, and Hollywood react. Incidentally, the media to date also considers Trump potential candidacy as “not serious”, viewing it as a “publicity stunt”. In this opinion, it is not only a serious bid, but one that will surprise and in all likelihood Trump the media.

2012 GOP Update: Huckabee Not Out of the 2012 Race

From Newsmax (normally consider the source, but….), Mike Huckabee has vehemently stated that the rumors of not running with the 2012 GOP Pack of GOP Presidential GOP hopeful nominees has been “greatly exaggerated”. A report coming from a “staff” member in South Carolina last week indicated they were told to shut down, as there would be no campaign. Huckabee quickly responded.

Fox News is now pressuring Huckabee to make a decision, due to the fact that if it appears he is pursuing his bid on the network, Fox would be forced to give equal time to all candidates – a meeting is apparently scheduled within the next few weeks.

One thing that is missing from every single story regarding any candidate who is “sitting on the fence” so to speak is the following: Prior to 2007, candidates rarely announced before summer, and George W. Bush in 1999, announced late in August (causing a bit of a hubbub with other candidates who had declared earlier in June) – Bush, as noted went onto win the nomination. Therefore, Huckabee is clearly in the race – and he should be:

One: Huckabee polls better than any other candidate overall, regardless of the pollster, lately he is tied with Donald Trump (who is also serious, despite the Press, of mounting a bid). Two: he knows history and politics, and has no need to do anything other than take his time and watch his competition. Huckabee is no fool when it comes to politics, and there are several factors to consider. Of the top runners: Romney simply cannot carry the nomination, neither will Gingrich or Santorum (the two who have announced) Bachman, although popular, will also not make it past the east or west coast (although it appears there are ten states there, which Obama may take in 2012, and that’s it. Therefore, for now, Huckabee is in the catbird seat.

To this blog it would be highly unusual if Huckabee does enter the race sooner than he would like, but it is apparent he will be entering the race.

Gallup: Trump (Tied with) Huckabee, Romney Palin Lead Pack of “Possible” GOP Presidential Contenders – Trump is Serious

The 2012 Pack: Trump, Huckabee, Romney & Palin - image sources: westernjournalist, truthwins, business week and buddhistblog



Gallupincluded Donald Trump in a first polling of Republican potential GOP candidates, with the result that Trump tied with Huckabee for the top slots, followed by Romney and Palin, the balance of the 11 potential candidates did not receive double digit support. What was most interesting was the breakdown of the type of support these “candidates” might receive: According to Gallup Trump’s strong suit is moderate and liberal Republicans, with Huckabee garnering the majority of support from Conservative Republicans. The Poll conducted over five days and released on the 21st, included 1000 plus Republican and Republican Independent leaning voters, with 10% having no opinion when Trump is included in the mix. A second segment of the poll, without Trump, keeps the Leaders in the same positions: Huckabee, Romney and Palin, however, the no opinions jump to 17%.

With Romney one of the few out of the 15 categories (two of which are “other” and “no opinion”), who has set up an “exploratory committee, the results speak volumes regarding those who have not announced, or do not intend to set up such a committee, and their ability to be competitive in the field. The top three who have yet to announce due to contractual agreements: Trump, Huckabee and Palin, will, undoubtedly expand their leads once the formal announcements are made beginning in May/June of this year.
Gallup goes on to note that although the front runners in early polling may start strong, they do not necessarily end up with the nomination, giving the following examples: Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton in 2007, and Joe Lieberman in 2003.

The Gallup is one pollster who is “conservative”, not in ideology by in careful analysis of the field, and unlike the rest of the media/pollsters who are impatient with the lack of “publicly committed candidates”, does not entirely see this as a weak point as far as the process is concerned, cautioning that it is early in the game. This might be due to the fact that Trump was, until yesterday when this report was undoubtedly released, not considered a serious candidate.

That changed with remarks and phone calls made over the past twenty four hours. Trump called on ultra conservative pundit, Charles Krauthammer to make a case for his seriousness as a candidate, convincing Krauthammer that Trump, despite Krauthammer’s views on the man being somewhat less than glowing, is serious about the candidacy.(Source: Politico)

Additionally, during an interview on Fox News’ Greta Van Susteren’s “On the Record”, a telephone interview between Donald Trump and the Fox News Host, made it very clear that Trump intends to run, with an announcement set after the last airing of the NBC hit “Celebrity Apprentice”. Trump, also made it clear he would do nothing that would endanger efforts to remove Obama from the White House, vis a vis an independent campaign, it is clear that Trump believes, and the poll supports, he would be able to run as the Republican nominee, not as an independent candidate. Trump, with his take no prisoners approach to interviews, went on to disuses a wide range of topics, giving a variety of answers that appeared to be “half” of what the man might be thinking – he went on to level Karl Rove for his recent criticism of Trump’s candidacy by pointing out that it was Rove’s advise and leadership position within the Bush White House that drove the Republican Party down to the point where it would have been impossible for any Republican to be elected. It was a pointed, to the point, Trump style drubbing of the former White House advisor who many moderate Republicans consider irrelevant – or those Republican’s outside of the Beltway. The Video is below.

When the field of what will become, when late spring and summer brings the “front-runners” announcements, firm the real speculation will begin. Going out on the proverbial limb, as all those who play reverse Monday Morning Quarterbacking: It is, from this point of view, a matter of time before Palin and Huckabee join Trump and Romney, with Trump appearing to be the one of the three to accounted earliest (Palin may surprise), It would therefore, be a natural to pair one candidate who is able to reach the larger voting bloc, or those Moderate Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents, with one who would be able to attract the hard core conservatives. That leaves two at the top, one of which would gain the nomination via the primary process, with the other left in a strong position to join the ticket as V.P. Knowing now that Trump watches polls, and if the current trends continue: Trump would have the nomination, with likely V.P. Mike Huckabee (who has publicly said he would not turn it down (see Ingraham interview). Of course, this is based on the assumption of the current poll, which has Palin and Romney paired as appealing to voters from all ideological views of those polled by Gallup.

It would appear, that a ticket with Donald Trump/Mike Huckabee, would cover all bases, including those Democrats (moderate)who are now looking for an alternative and droves of voters who are seeking someone who is not a “politician” in the traditional sense (which includes Sarah Palin).

Of course, it is far too early to speculate, although it is in the nature of the political junkie to do so, but, this one blog strongly believes that should Trump announce, and he is serious, he will win the nomination and go on to win the Presidency. It is far too easy to criticize the man’s failings, be it his hair, or his way of attacking an interview, with the gusto and non-politically correct demeanor which is endearing Donald Trump to many both inside and outside the Republican Party. It will, of course, be the press, as well as those on the left, and yes, the Cocktail Party Establishment Republican’s who will continue to downplay Trumps importance, and dare one say - in the exact same manner in which decades ago, they downplayed one Ronald Reagan.

Note to Trump and Palin: Massachusetts is not a winner take all primary state – there are those who would work for a Trump or Palin ticket in the Commonwealth – it’s a mere 15% that places one on the ballot, and judging from those searching for “How to Volunteer for Trump (or Palin)”, coming from Massachusetts (no kidding), it would behoove anyone considering a Presidential run, to set up camp, even grassroots, a minimum of 4 months before the primary, and invest a little time in the State that gave the nation: Barney Frank, Ted Kennedy, Richard Neal, and a host of nefarious characters – not to mention one top GOP competitor, Mitt Romney.

Clip from Trump Fox Interview


or Link: Trump on Rove

GOP 2012 Roundup: Trump to NH, WSJ likes Pawlenty and Romney, Palin’s PAC gets new look, Desperate Beck calls Huckabee a Progressive.

Palin and Obama, Obama's Rivals for the 2012 Nomination will most likely be known by July - image media bistro

ABC is reporting that Donald Trump will be heading to New Hampshire to meet and greet arranged by his political aid, Michael Cohen. Yahoo News (among others), suggests that Michael Cohen is Donald Trump’s, Karl Rove. Cohen, who had worked in the past for Democrats, knows the tactics and how to fight “like a girl” (a la Palin) when up against a machine that is what it is, while most Republican’s are in a word “extremely polities and refuse to offend”.

The Wall Street Journal talks to the fact that Obama’s approvals are down, while Tim Pawlenty is making headway in collecting funds, and Mitt Romney leads the President in the Marist Poll. The focus on Romney and Plenty appears to come from the fact that both have declared forming “exploratory committees” – the bulk of the articles is a virtual shopping list of Presidential “don’ts” all of which appear with the Presidents moniker.

Meanwhile Sarah Palin’s PAC has gone through a top notch metamorphosis this past week, and Palin’s speech in Madison, have got Ben Smith over at Politico calling the week: “Palin’s Return”. (Of course, he had to throw in Trump and Bachman as reasons Palin might seeking more face time media wise.) Palin, who will do things in her own time, and in her own way, is still, along with the majority of the front runners in polling taken place since November 3, 2010 (post-Midterms), still undecided.

The State Column blog is reporting that Mike Huckabee is apparently seen as a threat to Mitt Romney, as Glenn Beck has taken off the gloves and is now calling Huckabee – a “progressive”. Seriously – Beck has come out strong against Trump for saying the exact same things Beck has said, against Palin, and now Huckabee – we are looking for an article where Beck has gone negative on Romney – he may be saving him for last, unless of course, George Sorros does something that can keep Beck in at least two of three headlines. Huckabee, the 2 and ½ term Governor from the State of Arkansas, had committed the crime of crossing the aisle in order to get things done, he pardoned Rolling Stone’s Keith Richards, he did raise taxes after having the state’s populace vote on the subject, and he has most definitely, like any other human in office, made a mistake or two (none of the aforementioned fall under that category.

The GOP field of Presidential Candidates will not likely take shape much before June or July of this year, with those who appear to be sitting on the fence possibly pulling a “George Bush” and announcing in August. The hue and cry from the media, belies the fact that prior to 2007, announcement for Presidential bids, normally came later in the year prior to the election, and debates were held, not in May, but in October of those years. Apparently, this crop of potential Presidential candidates, many of whom are under media contracts which are renewable at some point between now and then are taking it “old school”.

Meanwhile, the President is campaigning on Facebook where according to MSNBC he is attempting to “excite young voters”. What the President may or may not know is that the youth vote, might be more enamored of another rising star, one who can promise them jobs, rather than Obama’s recycled hid your grandmother, the Republican’s are coming, parlance that worked in 2008. In quoting one definite youth voter from UMASS – who voted for Obama in 2008 – “He’s old news – we need someone who can get us out of this mess, but someone “cool”. Go figure.

2012 - Huckabee Leads both GOP and National in Latest Polls - Should Consider Post June Announcement - Opinion

Huckabee - Trump May Give Incentive for Earlier Announcement

a Farleigh Dickenson Poll link here released on the 31st of March, shows Mike Huckabee in a virtual tie with Obama (46/46) for the presidency. Furthermore, Huckabee also leads all “possible Republican Candidates” in Gallup’s “GOP Positive Intensity Tracking” poll. It is just a matter of when, and if, Huckabee will announce his formation of an exploratory committee, that has most media in an uproar as not one candidate (with the exception of Tim Pawlenty), has given an indication that they would announce much before June or later of 2011.

If Huckabee announces sooner than later, however, one can bet his lead would increase exponentially. Given Trumps entrance onto the national 2012 stage, Huckabee should consider the implications, given that some of his base may consider Trump as a viable alternative.

2012 Update: Gallup Sees No Front Runner, Boston Globe on Romney in New Hampshire

Gallup Dismayed - GOP Field is Tied! Huckabee, Palin Romney - photo credit: freedomslighthouse.net

Gallup, in a study of GOP Frontrunners from 1952 forward, finds that the 2012 “potential candidates” offer no clear frontrunner, in what Gallup terms as an “anomaly” this late in the game. However, in 2008, McCain was paired with Rudy Giuliani, who bested McCain at this stage of the “campaign”, with McCain emerging after Giuliani dropped out of the race, and the New Hampshire and Iowa contests were past. It was the South Carolina primary that gave McCain the green light he needed in order to emerge as a front-runner in the eventual field that included both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

As of the last Gallup Survey taken in February, Huckabee led both Romney and Palin by 2 points, in other words, a statistical tie. Herein lies the conundrum faced by pollsters, there are three strong contenders for the 2012 GOP nomination, none of which have formally announced. Palin has hinted at running, and has made a staff change to her PAC that indicates she may most likely run. Huckabee, with the release of a book and subsequent book tour across early caucus states, as well as the South Carolina battleground, will decide late (in terms of an actual announcement), in June or July of 2011. Romney is declared in all but making the statement official, the former MA Govenor came out this past week with the declaration that he was the most qualified GOP candidate. Although some politico’s may find this to be a negative for the GOP, the fact of the matter is, that overall, a healthy field of strong candidates (and that does not take into account those who have not yet emerged and maybe just as strong as the current well-known three), offers Conservative and Conservative leaning voters the more options than in previous contests, and delaying a formal announcement while laying groundwork for a campaign, is akin to having money in the bank. What will break or make the eventual nominee (which said person will not necessarily emerge until after the South Carolina primary or later for that matter) will be a cohesive effort on the part of all conservative wings of the GOP party to coalesce behind that person – something that may or may not happen, similar in scope to the 2008, doomed from the get-go, GOP nominee.

In 2008, with the taint of the Republican Brand, it was unlikely that whoever ran on the ticket would win the election. However, since the tide has turned, and it is the Democrat brand that is in that position, there will be little difference in who eventually takes the nominee, even if the matter is not settled until the GOP convention.

Strategically, it makes sense that the nominee be delayed over time, giving President Obama no clear rival until the 11th hour – in this scenario, Obama would have to contrast his policy against three or four (unnamed GOP), which would further waste resources. Additionally, if the President’s approval ratings for 2011 do not improve over 2012, it will not matter which front-runner emerges, that individual will most probably be the next U.S. President. Although, it will be a battle, the Gallup favorability ratings for 2010, show few states that will not fall to the GOP, should those numbers hold (currently 10). Gallup, it should be noted is a conservative polling firm, and by conservative, one is not referring to political ideology rather methodology – taking pains to go neither to the right nor the left.

The Boston Globe’s article on Mitt Romney in New Hampshire declares Govenor Romney a “novice no more”, by virtue of his previous run, and offers that he is in a better position to define himself more so than in 2008, as the issues then were less to his abilities (war in Iraq) than now, where the issue is the economy. That said, the article goes on to describe him as more comfortable, rather than “stiff”, as in 2008, but rightly suggests that his greatest hurdle will be his institution of mandated health care (Commonwealth Care) that was morphed into Obama Care on the national level.

There are, of course, differences, however, should Romney emerge as the nominee, it would take the debate over Mandated Health Care off the table, so to speak. Lastly, the subject of Romney’s religion comes into play – the Globe sees his Mormon faith as a deterrent in early states such as Iowa and South Carolina – that said, a quick review of recent (less than 50 years), proves that when the opposition is viewed as not desirable for the nation, and the frontrunner is a Mormon, that faith has little or nothing to do with electability. In 1972, one Richard Nixon, Mormon was elected to the Presidency taking every state with the exception of Massachusetts.

The aforementioned belies the Globes perception that the candidates electability may hinge on religion, whereby, history proves otherwise. In addition, as this nations laws demands a separation of church and state, with freedom of religion the root of the of the formation of the colonies which eventually became these United States, one must understand that, try and the opposition might, regardless of a Presidential Candidates personal choice of religion is concerned, it is that persons perceived ability of governing, that will rule the day. In this opinion, when one has a defined religion, it bodes well for the candidate, rather than detracts, going to personal character and conviction of a named faith. Those that would put labels on Catholics (Kennedy), Mormons (Nixon), and George W. Bush) (Methodist), may have done so but to little avail. ( source adherents.com)

In 2011 (to date), we have Obama (Christian), Romney (Mormon), Huckabee (Baptist), and Palin (Non-Declared Christian – (lack of sources offering a clear definition). In the end run, it will not be a candidate’s religious preference, it will be based on the state of the national electorate and the candidates perceived ability to govern effectively.

2012 Republican Update – Trump, Gingrich, Christi, Palin, Huckabee Romney

Huckabee, Palin and Romney remain GOP 2012 Frontrunners, although not yet announced - image freedomlighthouse.net

The 2012 Republican field is beginning to take shape, and although the majority of those names polled, have yet to announce their intent to run, (Palin, Huckabee, and Romney), all have expressed an interest.

This week saw Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey, entered the 2012 conversation by stating he knew he could win, however, would not enter as he had a job to do as Governor of New Jersey(NYMagazine) There are more than a few pundits who are hoping he will reconsider.

Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, has formally announced his intent to run, by forming an exploratory committee, and has suspended his contract, along with Conservative Rick Santorum with Fox News.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump made a trip to Iowa a sign that he is testing the political waters for a 2012 run.

The top three “speculated” candidates, Mike Huckabee, Palin and Romney have given timelines of sorts, and continue to dominate polls. A recentQuinnipiac Poll gives Mike Huckabee the lead, with Sarah Palin coming in as a second choice (Washington Post)

Huckabee, is on his book tour, and has noted that he will make up his mind on entering the race by summer. Although he pointed out in an interview on Fox News that he intends to wait, he is, as of now, sitting in the cat bird seat. In the interview with Sean Hannity, it was noted that Huckabee, unlike Gingrich and Santorum, has yet to suspend his Fox contract. Huckabee, never the conventional candidate, can, in this opinion afford to wait, giving time to test the waters, gauge the competition and hone is ability to fund raise.

Palin, who is also a Fox contributor is weighing when to enter (or whether or not to enter the fray), and like Huckabee, Palin is not a conventional Beltway politician. The Iowa GOP Chair weighed in recently via CNN saying it was risky for Palin to wait on a bid.

Meanwhile, Romney, is headed to New Hampshireaccording the Boston Globe “as his candidacy nears” In 2008, McCain bested Romney in the New Hampshire Primary, and the rest, as they say is history.

From polls and perspective, should Huckabee and Palin both decide to delay and announce between end of March and June (watch for suspended Fox News Contracts), both Palin and Huckabee appear to have the edge, although Palin does not pull in the first round of poll questions, or second in most polls, she does have the highest favorability in polls taken to date, the closest would be Mike Huckabee. Huckabee and Romney have taken the top slot in the majority of polls conducted by Public Policy Polling Public Policy Polling.com, however with Quinnipiac and others now jumping into the fray, different perspectives of each candidate and potential candidate will begin to take shape.

Huckabee, based on his current favorability and polling numbers, coupled with the results from the 2008 primaries (Interactive Map here at uselectionaltlas.org) may be able to announce in his own time.

In 2008, Romney took Massachusetts, Maine, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Wyoming, North Dakota, Michigan, Minnesota and Alaska. Huckabee took Iowa, West Virginia, Kansas, Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana and Georgia. It should be noted that Romney bowed out of the race early, and Huckabee continued on in order to keep both the party in the limelight and give voters a choice as they headed to the polls. Huckabee, in 2008, ran the campaign as an “unknown”, grassroots method, with very little cash on hand.

Based on the last analysis of the 2012 electoral map using Gallup’s 2010 Presidential approval rankings, one would anticipate that it would be wise, regardless of party or political ideology, to take a careful look at all Republican contenders, as that individual, has a strong probability of being the 45th President. Should Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin jump into the race, it is this opinion that they would be the front runners for the nomination, based on data available to date. It is, as of this point, impossible to pinpoint or speculate on which would take the GOP nomination.

Regardless, the 2012 GOP debates will be extremely informative as well as entertaining, especially if all players mentioned, and of course, Ron Paul, are in the fray.

2012 Roundup – Huckabee’s Hints of run more apparent, of Run in Iowa, Romney Get Praise from Deval Patrick, Palin Heads to India

As 2012 GOP candidates (officially unannounced) are put under a microscope by those in the media waiting for a confirmation of “will they or won’t they” throw their “hat” into the 2012 Presidential contest ring, at least three are making national headlines, and in key preliminary states, local headlines, in the hopes of drawing a conclusion that all or one of the top three (Romney, Huckabee, Palin) will make an announcement sooner than later.

Romney, who is polling in the top three at Public Policy Polling was recently praised by Massachusetts Govenor Deval Patrick for initiating mandated health care in Massachustts. (Boston Herald) Although Romney’s original vision for health care coverage in the Bay State somehow morphed into a billion dollar state deficit fiasco which was exported nationwide - this was after Romney had left office to pursue the 2008 Presidential nomination. What is interesting is that Patrick, who was headed to Washington to sing the praises of the program (which may be why he invoked the name of Romney considering the new makeup of the House and Senate), will have a hard sell, given the fact that the state went mandate crazy, the plan borrows from the Fed, and the costs of insurance premiums (private pay) have had two consecutive years of increases, some over 11% per year. Some political analysts (beltway) believe that “Romney Care”, will be the deterrent to the former Massachustts Govenor gaining the nomination. (Note: Romney has yet to declare)

Mike Huckabee is on his pre-presidential announcement book tour, from the Dubuque, Iowa Herald ” To shouts of "Mike in 2012!" former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee graciously acknowledged hundreds of energetic supporters Sunday in Dubuque”……. "I'd definitely like him to run because he listens to people and understands the importance of having both social and fiscal conservatism," said Donna Teubert of South Beloit, Ill.
To her and the crowd of loyal fans who came from Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin to see him, Huckabee said, "I'm telling (supporters who ask) that I'm seriously considering running. I'm watching the response to my book, which lays it all out so people will know what I stand for."

Huckabee, kicked off his campaign in 2008 after a book tour that took him into similar primary territory. Perhaps of more interest, on his Fox Sunday Show, Huckabee’s guests included both an African American clergy and a Hispanic Evangelic and their take of the Defense of Marriage Act. Huckabee, it should be noted, was listening intently to every word – what was especially interesting was the common ground found between the three. Although acting as a host and commentator, this arena allows Huckabee access to, what amounts to political intelligence for the 2012 general?

Sarah Palin, who is heading to India drew this headline from the New York Sun: “Palin Will Draw a Contrast With Obama in Her Visit Next Month to India”, which is refreshing considering the majority of the press is either focused on which shoes she’s wearing or her comments on breast milk and Michelle Obama. What is interesting in this particular instance is that when Palin makes an obvious inroad into the 2012 territory (see her trip to the Long Island Business Association in February), and receives half-hearted positive press from the New York Times, no less, the next three weeks are dedicated to leopard shoes in an attempt to marginalize her credentials.

One has to hand it to those millions of journalist who apparently have to go to the feminist side of any given candidate to be able to find criticism significant enough to call it “newsworthy”. From Hillary Clinton’s Hairclip to Palin’s Leopard Shoes, one has to wonder: What fashion faux pax might President Obama, (goes to Clinton), Huckabee and or Romney make, in the news press ongoing interest in fashion and politics. Would not these journalists fare better in say Vogue rather than in the local daily news?

Suffice it to say, the three at the top of the “anticipated” GOP Presidential nominee food chain, are moving in the direction of a decision at some point in the near future. In the meantime, the speculation and attacks will continue, until the actual announcement are made, and then, one can anticipate that, in the face of dismal poll numbers for the President, they will increase 100 fold, or one will rise above the others and be treated more “fairly,” should the writing on the wall be so obvious to all, that those who report, to sway you to decide, might pick the one candidate “they can live with” (actual quote from actual liberal). Money right now is on Mike Huckabee.

2012 Update – Sarah Palin on the Move, Media increases coverage, while Signs May Point to Announcement Sooner than Later.

Sarah Palin, Media watches for signs of 2012 run - image NY Sun


Sarah Palin has been the subject of more than a few media reports over the past few days, those in the media who would read into the slightest move of a “potential 2012 GOP candidate” seeking signs that the former Governor of Alaska is ready to jump into the fray, grasping at any conceivable “straw” that would indicate a run for office. The latest an AP report that Sarah Palin will be appearing before the “mainstream media” at a Long Island business group luncheon, taking questions for an hour with the media present and cameras rolling” (Forbes). The piece, compete with quotes from a Rutgers University Professor who hedges her bet by first noting the appearance is most likely financial (Palin, like most other politico’s are paid for appearances), then adding that it may also be a political move. The role of Republican Strategist in the article is play by Ed Rollins, who is, rolls out that her appearance may be political. He is, politely put, somewhat sarcastic in his view of her “first foray” in front of a camera and offers up the advice that one must be “be on guard and make sure your answers are precise." (>Forbes)

Last week, Palin hired a Chief of Staff for her Political Action Committee, leading all media to stand up and take notice: From above the lower 48, Alaska Dispatch.com’s “Palin Watch” gives an overview of media reaction and its obvious connection to a 2012 run, but offers no opinion, rather links to media sites covering the “story”.

The pollsters:

Public Policy Polling, released a poll and blog post on the GOP “field” entitled “Romney and the Birthers. The poll itself asked the usual questions as to individual candidates favorability, unfavorabilty and the percentage of Republicans and Leaners who might vote for a particular candidate. This time, the pollster also included a question asking if the respondents believed the President was born in or outside of the U.S. – what they found was that Romney does not fare as well as Palin with those who hold the belief that the President was not born in the U.S. Of course, on the face of it, that’s not news, but with this particular firm it is a telling jab. The firm is a Democrat leaning pollster, they have appeared, for the past two years, to be actively seeking an alternative to Obama, while at the same time propping him up the best they can. One can hardly blame them for a little partisanship, however, their polls, when the races are done, normally are spot on, within a point or two of the actual outcome.

Looking at the Marginals of the polls taken over the past several months tells the bigger story. Palin, is in the top “tier” of candidates scoring at or near the top of the potential GOP field. However, although she comes in third for the most part behind Romney and Huckabee, her favorability ranking is, 90 percent of the time, higher than the aforementioned.

The pollsters make no pretense to their preference on the GOP ticket, suggested reading Huckabee is the Best for Now, goes on to opine on why Huckabee may be better than Romney, Gingrich, or Palin as a choice for the GOP. This plug for Huckabee is interesting in the fact that at this stage of polling, the points separating all “potential candidates” is minimal. However, with the writing almost on the proverbial wall regarding the likelihood of a one-term Presidency for Obama, it is in the makeup of those who are politically vested to begin to look at the opposition party and make a choice as one of “them” is going to be the next President.

Spin as they might, as the polls continue into 2011 and announcements are made, the dynamics of the polls will change. It is apparent at the moment that Huckabee and Romney are faring better than Palin, (with that nagging exception of favorability) in a GOP contest. It is, as they say, a long way to Iowa, and the candidate who is out front first, will, in all likelihood, stay in the public eye longer, those who wait, may repent in leisure in this never ending cycle of American politics. Should Huckabee, who, in the past was not a strong fundraiser, but had the ability to turn thousands into millions of votes on a shoestring budget, waits until June or July of this year to announce, then one might find available cash heading towards those candidate who announce earlier. Two in particular, Romney and Palin, both have substantial cash on hand via their packs. One must however, never underestimate either Palin or Huckabee who are not predictable politicians.

How they fare against Obama in national match-ups is again, within points of one another (speaking of the top three Huckabee, Romney and Palin), with, the latest poll (see birther question), the President bested by an “unnamed Moderate Republican”, but overall winning the day over Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich and Palin, who come in behind the president in that order. Given the fact that in polling done in 2007, pitting Hillary Clinton and Obama, the President , Obama trailed Clinton by 22 points. Therefore, the national polls pitting Obama against any one of the “potentials” should be taken with a grain of salt. Moreover, it is useful to Palin (and her staff) to understand that, with points separating her from her male counterparts, her favorability ratings are more positive than the later.

The state by state polls, as well as national samples of the “GOP” matchups are available at publicpolicypolling.com/surveys

Heads up:

What is not being reported, but is worth noting is the increasing number of similar blogs, the purpose of which is Palin 2012. Within the past few days, these numbers have grown exponentially: To understand the scope in numbers of the all important grassroots bloggers visit The Book of Sarah, view the right hand of the blog template, and find a list of blogs for Palin, all using the same template. It is the beginning salvo. It is, in this opinion, more telling that hiring a Chief of Staff, more telling than speaking “on camera” before Long Island Business leaders (although that in itself, is, considering the aversion the business community has to Obama’s recently unveiled budget, which is not mentioned in the AP story of extreme reading the “tea leaves” interest.) – It is similar in scope to the 2007 Huckabee Model – How important were bloggers to Huckabee in 2008? Ask anyone in Iowa. Ask Mike Huckabee.

The break in communications: From a few weeks there was little communication from Sara Palin: From January 28th through February 11th Palin’s Twitter Account went black. The same could be said of Facebook. Granted, this is all “Tea Leaves”, but the break in daily tweets and her posts to Facebook, for a woman who is consistently in the spotlight, might indicate a decision was being made. The timing of the return of Palin to Twitter and the emergence of Blogs 4 Palin might be seen as a indication that a decision has been made, and, if one were to place any bets, an announcement will be made sooner than later. As Palin is competitive, and has been “First” in several categories (i.e. first woman to be Governor of the State of Alaska, First woman to run on the GOP Ticket as Vice President), it would not surprise if she were first to announce her candidacy for the office of the President and her intent to run in 2012.

Note: Huckabee continues to maintain his bloggers through his PAC site as well as through “Huck’s Army”, and although there are some indications that Huckabee will not run, there is more supportive “evidence” that he may. Again, from this perspective, an announcement on the part of the man who leads the pack should be sooner than later.

Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee (two former Governors) lead the field of GOP "potential candidates" image: current.com

In their latest 2012 Presidential polling of South Dakota Public Policy Polling surveyed a sample of 1045 South Dakota voters, matched closely to the electoral makeup of the state. In the case of South Dakota, Huckabee again, bests the list of potentials, with the exception of state Senator, John Thune. However, against Obama, Huckabee leads by 47 to 41%, Romney by 46 to 40%, with the balance of the GOP “frontrunners” (Gingrich and Palin specifically), trailing the President by 2 points (Gingrich) and 8 points (Palin). With this latest survey, the pollster views South Dakota as a swing state for Obama in 2012, based on the performance of McCain in 2008, who won the state by “less than 9 points”, and the performance of those who may or may not run on the GOP ticket.

In Arizona, which was polled on February 2nd, the state appears more competitive for the President, with Romney and Huckabee leading Obama by 49/43(Romney) and 48/44 (Huckabee). The balance of the GOP primary choices in this survey were limited to the top four, leaving Obama tied with Gingrich and ahead of Palin by 9 points.

In Republic State Primary scenarios, the latest polling shows Huckabee bests Romney, Palin and Gingrich in South Carolina, coming in behind South Carolina’s Jim DeMint by 4 points, and ahead of Romney by 6 according to a survey conducted February 1st by Public Policy Polling.

In the final analysis, according to Public Policy Polling, Huckabee and Romney appear likely to emerge as the two strongest candidates in early GOP primary states. Romney has been running the talk show circuit, appearing on the ”The View”, and showcased his agreement with Obama on the current situation in Egypt, noting that Mubarak should step down. He also appeared on the Dave Letterman show, spoofing a “Top Ten Things You Don’t Know About Mitt Romney”, which according to Politico was designed to show “voters he’ll be a better, more relaxed and relatable Mitt this time around”.

Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee has been in Israel, commenting on Palestinian Settlements noting that those Jewish settlers on the West Bank have a right to be there, which, according to the AP, is in direct opposition to International leaders including Obama. In addition the AP story casts Huckabee as an “evangelical leader and Fox News host”, rather than his primary role as former Govenor of Arkansas (not mentioned). Time reports that Huckabee’s views on the Obama administrations’ handling of the situation in Egypt are at odds – Huckabee believes that the administration was too quick to abandon Mubarak. Huckabee's views are at odds with Romney’s, who has sided with the Obama administration.
Huckabee, one must note, has been a staunch defender of Israel, as our only ally in the Middle East, and the recent trip gave the former Governor an opportunity to highlight his foreign policy views and where they may differ from Obama, and for that matter, Mitt Romney.

Although Romney has all but formally announced his intention to run, Huckabee, leads in the majority of polling by PPP to date - both men seen by that pollster as the frontrunners. That said, in polling against Obama in Massachusetts, Romney does not hold his own state faring better than the balance of the GOP potential candidates in the survey conducted on Dec. 3, 2010. In this particular poll, however, the electoral make-up is skewed towards Democrats, with the following discrepancy Democrats 42%, Republican 20% and Independents 38%. Massachusetts Independents dominate both parties, making up over 50% of the electorate, with Republican’s holding approximately 12 to 14% and Democrats 35%. To date, this is the only poll conducted by this pollster, where the electoral makeup did not closely match those polled. (Using voter statistics from Secretary of State Websites in each of the polls conducted.)

Overall, one can look for Huckabee to announce (or not), either end February or when his contract with Fox expires (or he takes advantage of any clause in the contract which allows him to bow out). Huckabee has noted, however, that if he announces, it will not be until June of 2011. That may accomplish two things: he will have a solid understanding of which states he fares best in (with thanks to PPP), regarding primaries, and will give him the additional time to sum up any late entries into the competition as well as work on foreign policy. In that wise, although considered a frontrunner now, (by pundits and pollsters) he would, in reality become a fresh face in the pack, one armed to the teeth.

Huckabee Continues to Lead Narrowing GOP Pack in Polling – Focus WV and NC – Pence Out – The East Coast Factors Huckabee?

Huckabee Continues to Lead/Polls Best in Hypothetical 2012 match up

Public Policy Polling has been conducting a series of State and National Polls featuring 2012 GOP “potential” candidates versus President Obama beginning as early as April of 2009 In that survey, Obama led the four top GOP Contenders, with Mike Huckabee gaining the highest “favorability” ranking of the top four (Huckabee, Palin, Romney and Gingrich). However, polling fortunes have reversed as of late, and Huckabee is clearly leading the pack in the polling conducted since early 2009. Obama had led all “contenders” up until January 22, 2010, when Huckabee took a slim lead over the President, with Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin falling points behind the President. The survey’s released since that point have had little changes as far as the GOP “Field” used for polling purposes is concerned, with Huckabee either leading or at the top of the “pack”.

In the most recent surveys, all 2012 potential GOP candidates best Obama in West Virginia, normally a stalwart Democrat state. (See full PFD report Here ). In this survey conducted on January 27th, 2011, Huckabee leads Obama by the widest margin: 54-36, Romney garners 4 points less, Gingrich, a 10 point advantage over Obama and Palin, for the first time, a 2 point advantage.

In North Carolina, however, Obama leads all Potential (GOP) candidates, however, Huckabee continues to Best the balance of the “potential” candidates in North Carolina.

While the media is concerned with the fact that no Republican has announced so “late in the game”, so to speak, however, when one looks at the 2008 general election, candidate announcements were made in 2007: Romney declared in February of 2007,, In January of 2007, Huckabee announced an exploratory committee, and at the end of January formally announced his intent to run, Guilianni announced in February of 2007, and John McCain formally entered the race in April of that year.

Therefore, in the grand scheme of things, the old adage, “act in haste, repent in leisure”, may be in order. Of the contenders, Romney and Huckabee both came “out of the gate” somewhat early, both losing to McCain who announced later in the Spring of 2007, giving his team more time to conduct political intelligence, and decide which way the political winds might be blowing before jumping in. Most of the top field, when asked, is looking at a summer announcement of intent, in that way, as it has been noted in several articles on the subject, overexposure is used as the reason for holding any formal announcements. The wait also gives those in the “potential top condensers” field, more time to review polls as well as see who else may enter or not, as in the case of one Mike Pence who announced this week, he will not run.

One also has to take into consideration that the “front runners” have been polled by a variety of firms since 2009, giving them the opportunity to weigh their political futures by the numbers, earlier, and with less of an investment. Additionally, the four in the top field, all have PAC’s (Political Action Committees) as discussed in an earlier article on GOP Potential Candidates Media A List”.

What the continued lead by Huckabee tells us, specifically from a polling institute that “leans Democrat”, is that Huckabee has a general appeal, even among some Democrats. In the words of one “New York, East Coast Elitist, Liberal (whom this blog highly respects), the reason may be simple: We don’t really expect Obama to win in 2012, so we need to see who we can stomach, Huckabee is the only one”. Pointed out: an irrational aversion to Sarah Palin (one which has no reasoning besides “I can’t stand her voice!”), an apparent remark by Mitt Romney at an event during the 2008 campaign that alienated the entire “pack”, and Gingrich, well, Gingrich is old and boring, like McCain. As the mainstream media seriously gets involved in reporting on those who have announced, one may still find Huckabee’s write-ups with a first paragraph lead-in describing the Governor as a “Baptist Minister”, however, one might find that the tone may change, specifically during the early part of 2012, should it appear that Obama cannot be reelected, and should Huckabee announce, the lead in will likely read “2 term Governor of the State of Arkansas, and watch especially for the Hope, AR tie in to the Clintons (real or imagined). As Huckabee continues to do well with Independents, (the Beltway Conservatives will be his biggest detractors), and with Democrats (not Progressives mind you), then it would appear that, from this perspective, Huckabee is sitting in the “cat birds seat” as far as the field of 2012 “potentials” are concerned. Granted, should Huckabee decide against a run, this becomes moot. On Trump entering the fray: This will make for theater, can you imagine those debates? (Ratings, Ratings Ratings!)

Romney Looks at 2012 from Hawaii– Huckabee and Romney As Front Runners – Analysis Taxes and Paroles

Mitt Romney & Wife on vacation an island away from Obama - image mittromneycentral.com

The Sacramento BeeSunday news included a piece on former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney, who is, coincidentally, on vacation in Hawaii at the same time as President Obama. Romney, who is touted as the “front-runner” for the GOP nomination in some instances, is a favorite of certain fiscal conservative groups, who “forgive” the former Governor for his Massachusetts Universal Health Care bill that was exported nationwide under Obama. Understanding that Romney’s vision of the Bay States version was not exactly the deficit ridden, mandate heavy, private insurance cost increasing behemoth that evolved once he left the legislation in the hands of a Democrat heavy State Legislator, it belies the fact that Romney, a savvy business man, must have foreseen the mess that would evolve once he left the Governorship to run for President in 2008. That aside, what is most often forgiven is the multiple “fees” imposed under Romney, including the “fee” for not complying with the State Mandated Program.

Although he initially opposed a “tax” for non compliance, he was fine with “fees” assessed on those that failed to comply” (Insurance Journal) . In any other universe a “fee” is a “tax”, unless one is looking for a “businessman” to run the country in 2012. When he first took the office of the Governor in 2003, then Governor Romney, hiked “fees” :

“If you own a gun or a boat, kill termites or teach horseback riding for a living or just want to learn to drive, you may have to pay more for a state permit.
Along with proposed budget cuts and reorganization plans, Gov. Mitt Romney sent the Legislature a four-page list of fees that would be increased to help balance the state budget. In all, the fee hikes would add $60 million in revenue next year. The proposed fee increases come on top of $290 million in fee hikes the governor imposed under emergency budget balancing authority given him by the Legislature in February that would be carried over into next year's budget.
While many of the fees hit businesses and special groups, few in the state would escape paying more for state services.”

The Fees (Tax increases):

“State college tuitions would be raised as much as 15 percent for in-state students
Free parking at many state parks, including Wachusett Mountain Reservation in Princeton, would give way to $2 parking fees, and a 15 cent deposit would be tacked on to juice, wine and other beverages that have escaped bottle deposits in the past.
At the Registry of Motor Vehicles, many fees would be raised.
Commercial license road tests would double to $40; drunken-driving license reinstatement would go from $300 to $500; learning permits would double to $30; a new $50 fee would be charged for emergency light permits; and the state would also bring in $507,000 by charging $2 each for bulk purchase of driver manuals by driving schools.
The Department of Public Health would begin charging a new $50 fee for all tuberculosis tests, to bring in $300,000, and hikes in license fees for hospitals, labs, radiation monitoring firms, and other licensed health-related businesses would bring the state an additional $3 million.

Elevator inspection fee increases would produce $3 million in new revenues, a hike in milk dealer licenses from $5 to $25 would raise $1.3 million.

Firearm registrations would triple to $75; fees for floats, piers and moorings would be increased 80 percent and boat registrations would go from $15 to $30 and $25 to $100. Surcharges on speeding tickets would double to $50 and current surcharges on drunken-driving violations would double to $250. “

(Worcester Telegram and Gazette, fee required for full article)

Which, the aforementioned may be why, those who are opposed to fees in states such as Iowa, the South, the Mid-West and places in between, failed to move then 2008 Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney past Mike Huckabee, the former Governor of Arkansas, who is often accused of “taxing” those in the State of Arkansas.

Additionally, he can be, of all things, Bi-Partisan! In a recent article by right of center blogger Michelle Malkin, she eviscerates Huckabee in her piece: “Malkin: Big Nannies of the Year”"

“Nanny State Republican Mike Huckabee, who used his bully pulpit position as Arkansas governor to campaign for Big Government-endorsed “healthier living” in public schools and private life, naturally sided with Mrs. Obama — and took a swipe at Sarah Palin last week for criticizing the White House usurpation of parental responsibility and rights. Huckabee scoffed at the idea that the feds are “trying to force the government’s desires on people.” But school bake sales are already under siege, and Mrs. Obama’s childhood obesity task force has already called for new and dramatic controls on the marketing of unhealthy foods. Did Huckabee miss (or does he agree with) Mrs. Obama’s officious rallying cry on child nutrition: “We can’t just leave it up to parents”?
God save us from more busybody bipartisanship in 2011.”

Ms. Malkin is either missing the point, or perhaps making a political point for the “fiscally conservative, fee happy Romney”. Governor Huckabee can be bi-partisan, when and if, it is in the best interest of his constituents, and asked for by his constituents. Apparently, addressing the issue of childhood obesity (health and strength of the nation’s future), is off the radar for certain conservatives, and any interaction with the “enemy” (i.e. a Democrat) is seen as treasonous.

That said, agreeing that parents should be the first point of defense for their children, the fact that many children in today’s society, depending upon the school district, are not offered “healthy choices” for school lunch, rather vending machines, and the like; with parents who may or may not be present and/or know what their children are ingesting must be considered. In the case of Huckabee - is not a question of “big brother”, rather a question of schools, paid for by the taxpayer, offering nutritious food for the students rather than “junk food”. Huckabee offered guidelines, rather than a mandate, including the parents in the process and ultimately changing the menus at schools to include more healthy “snacks” (from article: Star News via AP: “Arkansas Reaches Out to Overweight Kids, Schools help parents with fighting obesity” In addition he did not impose any lunch “fees”.

Of course, the two contenders have only hinted at a run in 2012, and have yet to announce, unless one can count Romney’s “hint” in the LA Times: “Running certainly seems to be on Romney's mind. His annual Christmas card showed a smiling Romney with his wife, Ann, and 14 grandchildren. The caption read: "Guess which grandchild heard that Papa might run again?"

Huckabee, Palin and a crowded field of “those speculated to run”, have repeatedly "coyly" dodged the questions of 2012 presidential runs. That said, as polls continue to show Huckabee gaining strength (CNN Opinion Research), coming in ahead of the entire pack of “contenders”. Not for nothing, the best polling (this opinion) group out there, Public Policy Polling has, in early polling, Huckabee ahead of Romney in the State of Florida.

As it now stands, the battle that may brew between Romney and the “fiscal conservatives” in the beltway, and Mike Huckabee, who is viewed as a more populist candidate, should they both decide to run, make this one very interesting fight in 2011-2012. Of course, this does not address the third front-runner, Sarah Palin, who, although currently “lagging” behind both Romney and Huckabee in a series of polls, should not be discounted. A great deal will depend on which one of the aforementioned has the rank and file, plus the “Tea Party, in full force behind any run at the Presidency.

A few facts:


Romney Pardons: He denied them all, including one for an Iraq War Vet, who when 13 years of age, (juvenile record) shot another boy in the arm, causing a welt, with a bb gun. The man was applying for a job and requested the pardon from Govenor Romney who refused. He was awarded the Bronze Star for his service to the nation in Iraq.”(UPI)

Huckabee Pardons: Although credited with pardoning one man by the name of Dumond, who continued to commit murder after his parole, his release and pardon was at the behest of the Parole Board, not Huckabee. The parole board “assumed” that Huckabee would have wanted the man paroled, as he had expressed some sympathy”. (Seattle Post Intelligencer) In fact, Huckabee presided over executions performed under the laws of the State of Arkansas which offers a contradiction of sorts to those who support the Huckabee as “soft on crime” theory CBS News. Or course, Huckabee did pardon, Rolling Stone’s, Keith Richards for a “parking violation” (Pittsburg Post Gazette”)

The point being that both Romney and Huckabee have made decisions as their respective State’s governors, which can either be excused and or not, depending upon one’s ability to face facts and dig a little deeper to look at the men (or women) who may hold the highest office in the land. One can, however, anticipate a colorful battle between these two “potential” candidates – what one cannot anticipate is how either will fare against one Sarah Palin, or should the constant speculation bear fruit, One Democrat Nominee, Hillary Clinton.

Gallop: Obama’s Approval Stagnant at 47% Despite Lame-Duck Successes, Mike Huckabee - 2012 Speculation As Challenger to Obama

2012 Hypothetical Race: Huckabee vs. Obama

Gallop released their daily presidential tracking for Dec. 30th with the President’s Approval rating remaining stagnant at 47%. 46% of the nation continues to disapprove of the Presidents job performance. Meanwhile, the 2012 GOP speculation heightens. A recent MSNBC report (video shown below), is tagged with the headline “MSNBC Promotes Huckabee”. The gist of the MSNBC report is a positive/negative look at the potential 2012 presidential candidate, former Governor Mike Huckabee. Huckabee is noted as being a conservative who does not immediately attack Democrats or the President, rather assesses each individual issue, on the other hand, the report begins with the, now typical moniker assigned to Huckabee: Baptist Minister. The “Baptist Minister” citation is a liberal “call to alarm”. The left views Governor Huckabee as “right wing religious nut” rather than his more updated calling as two and one half term Governor of the State of Arkansas. One would think that in a political arena, the fact that Huckabee was a successful Republican Governor in a traditional southern Democrat state might trump the fact that he was, in his lifetime, an ordained minister.

Huckabee, in 2005, was one of Time Magazines “American’s 5 Best Governors":

Huckabee has approached his state’s troubles with energy and innovation, and he has enjoyed some successes. Most notably, he created ARKids First, which offers health insurance to poor children and has helped reduced the percentage of uninsured Arkansans under 18 to 9% in 2003-04, compared with the 12% for the nation and 21% for neighboring Texas. Since he became Governor in July 1996, welfare rolls have declined by nearly half, and last year the state’s economy grew 4.4%, beating the national average of 4.2%.

The attacks on Huckabee during the 2008 GOP General Primaries were based on his fiscal policy – the man who created a budget surplus in Arkansas, raised the level of education, and generally improved almost every aspect of the State’s government (Again winning not one, but two terms as Governor in a heavily Democratic state), actually increased taxes. The New York Times ran the following article on Huckabee and the attacks from a particular right of center fiscal “Club for Growth”:

During Mr. Huckabee’s tenure as governor, he did raise taxes to improve the state’s roads and schools, with the support of both Republicans and Democrats in the state legislature. He ended his tenure with an $800 million budget surplus.
Mr. Huckabee lowered some taxes as well. But, on balance, he raised more than he cut and that’s behind the Club’s disdain for Mr. Huckabee.

What was left out of that particular article, as well as advertisements denouncing the Governor, was the fact that several states were forced to raise taxes due to: Federal Mandates increasing State's services.. Additionally, one must also be reminded that America’s best President (blog opinion), Ronald Reagan also raised taxes on more than one occasion.

As conservatives try to out-Reagan one another, the one man that can lay claim to actually having governed like the “Gipper” is that rascally Baptist Preacher and former 2-1/2 term Governor of the State of Arkansas. Should Huckabee actually decide to run, he would do well to counter the naysayers with a bit of historical fact.

As of this moment, however, every prominent Republican is included in the list of possible candidates, and the President may have dodged a primary challenge from the left of the Democrat party (Charles Rangel), however, it remains to be seen if a challenge will be mounted by a more moderate Democrat (Dick Morris via Fox News as well as rampant speculation from the press in general). It is simply, a time to speculate, with no clear idea of who will actually aspire to the nation’s top job in 2011-2012.

Note: Huckabee led Obama in hypothetical match up as of 11/4/2010 in CNN poll,(Politico) The poll referred to on MSNBC is from Quinnipiac Nov. 22nd, in which overall voters would prefer another candidate to Obama: 49-43%

MSNBC Video

2012 – The Year of the Woman – Tales of Pleading and Polls

The Future of the United States Presidency - 2012 - image: lavendarcastle.com

Historically, women in the United States have, for the most part, moved to the front of the political class more slowly than their male counterparts. Yes, women hold lofty positions – the office of Secretary of State held by Condoleezza Rice during the Bush administration and now by Hillary Clinton under the Obama brand and Nancy Pelosi, who has risen through the ranks to become the first female Speaker of the House. However, historical landmarks in 2008 were specific to women – Hillary Clinton being the first to run for President under the Democrat Party brand, and Sarah Palin, the first female Vice Presidential nominee under the Republican Party Brand and only the second woman to have been nominated for that position in this nation’s history. The first, Geraldine Ferraro, nominated by the Democrat Party in 1984, to run with Walter Mondale – all three, due a variety of circumstances, yet, while being applauded as having broken through the “glass ceiling”, Ferraro, Clinton and Palin all lost their respective bids. Clinton was shoved out, so to speak, having cornered the popular vote, the powers within the Democrat Party simply pushed Obama forward on the wings of the so-called “super delegates”, denying the nation the opportunity to vote for the only moderate left standing in the 2008 contests. Both Ferraro and Palin were tied to weak candidates, who would have been all but invisible had they chosen male running mates.

It is not that women haven’t held critical positions in both the public and private sector for the past thirty some-odd years, so why the blatant prejudice against women who run for the highest office?

Sexism is too tame a term (although appropriate in some instances) to use in the cases of the aforementioned – prejudice however, is not. The press, at every opportunity, took the option of critiquing wardrobe rather than accomplishments, and a simple “gaffe” produced innumerable headlines, days of talking heads and pundits analyzing the now “diminished” changes of whichever of these three women named, and all the while, ignoring fashion faux pas and horrific gaffes made by their male contemporaries (See Joe Biden).

As a result of the choice in 2008 between what was left-over, the United State elected the stronger (on paper – newspaper) candidate and with what result?

Unemployment is holding steady at close to 10%, (not to mention the underemployed and those who have stopped seeking employment), BP and the administration took 87 days to stop an oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico that has done untold damage to the environment and tourism, the Congress and President in concert, has pushed through more unpopular legislation, faster than any other in history. Foreign policy is a disaster, as the United States is, once again, considered a “paper tiger”, and Obama is openly chastised by political leaders from Europe, Latin America, Asia and the Middle East.

The pure hype surrounding the man’s candidacy, coupled with a lack of experience, and a penchant for ideology, has produced one of the worst presidencies in history – bar none. One must keep in mind that historians, are basically an ideologically driven bunch – writing a presidential biography is part science (backed up by historical data: documents, etc.) and the viewpoint of the author. As academics are primarily politically Progressive – it is no wonder there is often a disconnect between the reality of a Presidents performance as voted by the people and whichever Presidential Historian is assigned to an administration. Fortunately, history, (which has a habit of repeating itself) as a science, can be modified and updated by any historian who might be a competent researcher and who is able to discern fact from ideology dispassionately.

What of women? Historically women have made solid leaders, regardless of one’s political leanings, there is no denying the accomplishments of the UK’s Margaret Thatcher, Israel’s, Golda Meir, (most recent) to Elizabeth I, Catherine of Russia and Isabella of Spain. Women, who rule over vast nations and territories, do no worse and often better than their male predecessors and successors.

History, as previously noted, does repeat, and the United States may see yet another historical political accomplishment in 2012 for women. As the Obama brand weakens daily, and Congressional Democrats find their chances greatly diminished, certain moderate members of the party have begun to seek alternatives, and only one competent alternative comes to the forefront – Hillary Clinton. Immediately following the January 21st Inauguration of Barak Obama, Clinton supporters had begun to hope for a run in 2012. Now, just shy of two years into his administration, the calls for Clinton to run in 2012 are becoming more frequent, and moving from the blogs to the Washington Post. An article by Pete DuPont in the Wall Street Journal on July 15th makes the case for a Clinton Presidency in 2012. Although an “op-ed” and the opinion of Mr. DuPont, should one search Hillary Clinton 2012 on Google, there are 1,687,000 results, a number than has grown over the past few months.

One must understand that traditional Democrats are not particularly enthralled with the Progressive Democrats who have taken leadership positions within their party – a schism where the majority will, if given the chance, do what should have been done in 2008 and nominate Clinton as their 2012 Presidential Candidate.

Should this occur, who would Ms. Clinton face in opposition? With the Democrat Brand as badly or if not more badly damaged now than the Republican brand in 2006-2008, the Republican’s who may run at the White House, are anyone’s guess.

That said guesswork has produced a field of candidates that include: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee and yes, Sarah Palin. In a recent poll by Democrat Leaning Public Policy Polling, matching possible 2012 GOP candidates against Barak Obama results produced regarding two of the aforementioned, prove most interesting. The poll data (here) gives former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee a 2 point lead over the President, 47 to 45%, and polling higher among women (49% to 42%) than the President. Obama trails both Romney and Gingrich by 1 point (to date). That said, the match up of Palin and Obama is what is of most interest – although Palin places below her male GOP counterparts, at dead even with Obama (46%/46%), she is also now scoring higher with women (47% to 44%) than the President. Further, Public Policy Polling refers to Palin’s score as ”An Amazing Fact” because in March of this year she was at 35% to Obama’s 55% in a 2012 match up. Additionally, it appears that even though her unfavorability actually rose in the latest poll, she is still besting the current Pennsylvania Avenue resident.

What this tells us – The United States is preparing to look at strong women to lead. Although alleged to be polar opposites, one might find the two women closer on issues of substance and policy than either major political party would be comfortable with. Both are strong on defense, tough of foreign policy and have backgrounds to suggest fiscal responsibility – the criteria which voters in this election will seek. How credible is a Clinton – Palin match-up in 2012? Although early in the game, both women have enough political capital to push through the ranks to the top of their tickets. The outcome would depend a great deal on how badly the Democrat brand has been damaged, and if Clinton can pull away from the administration in time to convince the voters she does not prescribe to the Progressive ideology that many see as having destroyed our nation on so many levels. Palin, on her part, must get past the media, who were concerned about her “star-power” from the moment she accepted the GOP nomination in 2008 and began to draw larger crowds than Obama. Although ratings and circulation have fallen dramatically for Palins' detractors, it would be naive to believe that, regardless of who Palin would face as a competitor, the media would be prepared to eviscerate her. The saving grace should the match up be two women, pantsuits and updo’s would be off the table, and reporting would be forced to turn to substantive issues and differences between two highly qualified women. The result, voters would have a chance to choose between two candidates, knowing that the outcome would be favorable for the nation, regardless of who won the presidency.

Hillary Clinton and a Hint of 2012 - The Rumors Begin

Clinton with Palin - the glass ceiling calls - image: newsbusters

It has been known, for some time, that Hillary Clinton has maintained her 2008 campaign staff,, and adding fuel to the recent fire - was her absence at the State of the Union Address. These "facts" can be added to a CBS Interview where Clinton “suggested she would be a one-term Secretary of State”.

For those tea-leave readers out there, these bits of news may indicate Hillary Clinton is intending to run for the Presidency in 2012. It may also mean that Clinton did not disband her campaign staff until all the bills were paid, she had made the plans to be absent from the State of the Union long before the date was set, and finally, with Obama’s recent announcement that he would prefer to be a “really good one-term president”, she is preparing for a well-deserved retirement.
Retirement – not likely. Hillary Clinton, regardless of the popular theory that Obama won in a landslide, did, in reality, have the popular vote in the Democrat primaries. Clinton lost to Obama when the “Super Delegate” shenanigans, ousted her from a well-executed, hard fought campaign against a rising tide of Progressive think. It was classic highway robbery – with Pelosi and her daughter casting the final votes in favor of Obama. Clinton, in her party, is a moderate, not so far to the left (a la Pelosi) to be blinded to reality. She is also a patriot, had been strong on defense during her tenure in the Senate, and, some might note, as not pro-abortion enough as the groups N.A.R.A.L. and Emily’s list, got firmly behind Obama. Don’t even ask about N.O.W.’s defection. So much for so-called women’s groups and women in higher office, giving a well deserved sister a hand-up.

What Clinton would face in a primary would be overwhelming support (assuming that the nation continues on the current track of self-destruction), from the Democrats left within her own Party. It would be a war between those Progressives no one really understands (but there are definitions available), and the traditional Democrat (or the majority of the rank and file). The problem she would then face would be branding. It would not be the Clinton brand gone bad – it would be the Democrat Brand in its totality. Should she succeed in besting Obama (and that is not out of the question), the only hope she would have would be a very weak and very partisan Republican opponent.

In the minds-eye of a Conservative Feminist (with degrees of moderation and sanity), the obvious course would be a combined ticket featuring Clinton and either Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin. All three have had instances in their political careers where they have bucked the traditional party line, and therefore, are well equipped to set aside partisanship to do the will of the people. Against all odds of this ever occurring in the next century, in an ideal situation, the American people would benefit from an end of the never-ending partisanship that is present in Washington. Additionally, the preference would be to have two women, both competent, both with backbones, running the country. It would shatter the glass ceiling and give hope to women around the world. Chances of this happening are, of course, zero, but one can always hope that love of country will someday trump ideology. (the Utopian side of the Conservative Feminist.) The fact that an electorate can conceive of such a concept has recently been proven, in Massachusetts – where the “independent minded” (and there is evidence to support that fact) Scott Brown, became the new Senator Elect from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.