Friday, February 25, 2011

2012 – Huckabee Media Round-Up End February 2012 and Commentary.

Huckabee, Palin, Romney the "top tier" - image

Mike Huckabee, former 2008 Presidential candidate who took Iowa on a shoestring, former 2-1/2 term Governor of Arkansas, yes, ordained Baptist Minister, appears to have received a bit of positive press this past week, whether it be from Conservative or Mainstream outlets, as well as, shockingly liberal leaning outlets that are, for all intents and purposes, shopping around for the GOP candidate that they can “live with”, should President Obama go the way of Jimmy Carter and be truly unelectable. (Refer to Gallup State Poll on Obama’s popularity released earlier in the week.) There is no question that the 2012 GOP field, should it emerge as the “projected top tier candidates” of multiple polling organizations suggest, would be one of the most energetic and engaging group of contenders, which televised debates, would be the ultimate in “reality” television for political junkies (and the media who is eyeing those who, in a universe of probabilities, will be the 45th President of the United States.

Huckabee, who is on tour for his new book (reminiscent of 2007 and a similar book tour), has been doing he circuit, from appearance on talk radio, to Fox News, to the Colbert Report, Huckabee goes where not many GOP candidates would: to the right, down the center, and to the left.

Appearing on a segment of Laura Ingram’s talk radio show (clip below), Huckabee suggests that MSNBC personality, Chris Matthews, should seek help and get some meds (paraphrased), he talks about border security and how the US might emulate Israel, as he speaks to the real threat of open borders, terrorism. It is not that Laura Ingram is a heavy hitting conservative like Rush Limbaugh (more on that later), but she does have a right of right leaning tone, for the most part and does not mince words. She gave Huckabee a showcase, one which did not include a lecture (something she is prone to do).

The Gallup released a national Republican Poll Here where Huckabee, Palin and Romney appear in the top “tier” of potential candidates in a national Republican and Republican Leaning schematic. Huckabee tops the group with a slight 2 point difference, out of 17 possible (two of which have announced their intent not to run), candidates. Huckabee is followed by Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, both tied, however, when one looks at the marginal’s, and where Huckabee is currently leading among “groups”, one sees the 2012 potential more clearly: He scores higher on Republicans, than Republican Leaning Independents (again Romney and Palin tie), He scores highest among Conservatives, and surprisingly Palin scores higher among those who consider themselves Liberal to Moderate. Huckabee scores equally with men, but higher with women, and takes the “youth” vote (18-49), but lags in the boomer group (that goes to Romney). The geographic: Huckabee scores well above the top 3 in the South and the Midwest, while Palin and Romney tie in the East, and Romney stands alone in the West. Huckabee owns the larger block of Real Estate at this point. The Gallup headline: “Huckabee, Palin, Romney Tie for Lead in GOP '12 Preferences”, is statistically correct, given the margin of error (plus or minus 3), until one start to look at the marginal’s and individual questions.

The Washington Post, doing a Case For and Case Against, study of candidates, gave Huckabee a shot at the Case For: which included: He’s a Great Communicator, a “known Commodity, he exhibited Early State Strength, (the past for the future theory), and finally, The Man is a True Believer; the post understanding that there is a Christian base to the Republican Party that can make or break a candidate or, for that matter, a President. The Case Against, not yet published, will most likely rehash 2008, and those “issues” raised, but clearly not forgotten, from parolees, to being seen as “too liberal”, Huckabee has a record of having actually governed for 10-1/2 hears, during which, he did his job. That brings up issues.

New York Magazine’s article “Why is Mike Huckabee So Damn Nice to President Obama?” list instances where the Govenor has been pleasant to President Obama, and his wife, Michelle. The author then goes on to ponder if Huckabee is being nice because is not running, or because he is running. It is a clearly conflicted article. Huckabee does not act like other candidates, because he is different from the usual, he leaves personal attacks off the table (for the most part), but argues on policy. Someone who is level headed and appears to think about a situation, then act, not react.

These particular pieces, out of the 2,343 recent articles via “Google News” this morning when one queried simply “Mike Huckabee”, are an extremely small cross sampling, and frankly, there are too darn many news articles on that man. From his book tour stops in Iowa and South Carolina, to his stand on Islam, to Union Busting, etc., etc.

The book may have been the proverbial “bell weather” as to Mike Huckabee's intentions to run, however, Huckabee's PAC, may be gearing up for more: A “money bomb” asking for donations of $20.12, is on the site here . If one feels that Huckabee needs a clear signal to run, spending the $20.12 may help him consider making an announcement before June 2011.

Should the thought of Sarah Palin, (given recent conversations with cherished New York State of Mind friends, who are now experiencing what can only be termed “Palin Derangement Syndrome” -) give one nightmares, there’s another reason to visit Mike’s PAC and send that $20.12 message.

Adding fuel to that Fear:

Speaking of Palin, the most powerful name in Conservative Talk, one Rush Limbaugh, did a piece comparing President Obama’s treatment by the media, and then proposed: If President Palin, did this: or that (full transcript here at It is interesting to speculate whether or not El Rushbo has somehow endorsed Palin, and or, more to the point, if his rather large conservative following thought he did. To be fair, this blog does not listen to Rush Limbaugh, or most talk radio (with the exception of Howie Carr, (Boston Talk), during a 15 to 20 minute commute), therefore, this may not have been the norm - he may have done segment similar with Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney, in which case, it was missed.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Gallop Poll Obama Approval high in 10 States – Projection: 2012 Adjusted Electoral College Map: Obama: 191, Unnamed Republican: 337

A Gallup survey on President Obama’s approval rating in 2010 (available here) headlines his high approval rating in Hawaii, and 9 other states, however, the balance fall below 50%, with 20 states listed as average: approval between 44 and 48%, the balance of the 30 states are at 43% and below, giving an outline of the possible 2012 presidential outcome. (See Map below)

Should these approval rankings stay at present levels, and translate into 2012 Electoral College results, Obama, the incumbent would garner 195 Electoral College votes, needed to remain in office: 270
(See hypothetical 2012 Electoral College Map Below from

Additionally, the level of Electoral College votes will change with the 2010 census, as districts are redrawn and certain states having lost population will also lose seats in the Electoral College. The New York Times has an interactive map on Electoral College votes here (See Map Below).

In this scenario: Texas gains 4, Arizona 1, Utah 1, Nevada 1, Georgia and South Carolina 1 each, and Florida 2, or a pickup of 11 for the unnamed Republican, on the incumbent side: Washington gains 1 for the incumbent: The total now becomes: 196 to 343 (R). The States that lose Electoral College vote are: Iowa, Missouri and Louisiana (all minus 1), Michigan and Ohio minus 3, for a total of minus 6 for the Republican or 337. States in the Obama approval hypothetical that lose seats are: Pennsylvania 1, New Jersey 1, New York 2 and Massachusetts one, or a net loss of 5, giving the incumbent a total of 191 Electoral College votes.

Given the current state of Foreign Affairs, (Middle East), the threat of 26% inflation in food and clothing in 2011, and the immediate rise of the price per gallon of gasoline, added to a stagnant unemployment rate near 9%, it is somewhat conservative to use the Gallup 2010 approval as part of a hypothetical projection. Given the results, it would behoove the nation to look carefully at any and all Republican Candidates as it is, based on the above scenario, probable that one of them would be the 45th President of the United States.

As the GOP Presidential candidate field has also been hypothetical based on who may run, or who has hinted at a run, it is unlikely that the nation will have a clear idea of who the candidates will be prior to possibly June of 2011. There is more to weigh in this particular instance for anyone who is remotely interested in running than whom they may or may not be able to best, as the 45th President will inherit a scenario that appears Carteresque and one that might have made Ronald Reagan take pause. That said, the candidates that do emerge will have a clear understanding of just how desperate the situation may be, and how Reagan, although elected twice in what can only be considered landslides, (given the fact that he took Massachusetts twice), lost popularity while putting the nation back together over a 3 year period. It goes without saying that these candidates will have to put political ambitions aside, and have a pure desire to right the course of the nation, and the knowledge to do so, as in an individual who has had the experience of Governing a State, as opposed to an individual who has been invested in the legislative side of government.

Mike Huckabee, an increasingly potential GOP 21012 candidate, cautioned recently that Obama would be difficult to beat, but not impossible, and he is right – it will be the candidate chosen by the GOP and GOP leaning independents (and possibly some Democrats) that will either instill confidence in a weary public, or not. Additionally, as Obama’s campaign manager uses the Massachusetts model of “How to elect Deval Patrick” and apply that to the Obama campaigns, one must watch for a third party candidate (i.e. Trojan Horse). Suggest reading treatments of the 2010 Gubernatorial race narrowly won by Deval Patrick over Republican Charlie Baker (by 2 points), with the Democrat turned Independent, Tim Cahill, increasing Patrick’s chances which ultimately gave the Governor with the lowest possible approval rating in Massachusetts a second term.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

2012 Update – Mike Huckabee Book Tour Begins, Has Not Ruled Out Presidential Run, Shades of 2007

Huckabee, The Book that Will Decide the 2012 Run - image Amazon

CNNblogs article on Mike Huckabee’s recent book release, “Huckabee Ready To Test His Message”, offers a glimpse at 2012 with the following:

"It kind of gives me an opportunity to take that message to the people rather than to wait to be one of 12 people on a debate stage getting four minutes worth of questions," Huckabee said.

Another look at the 2012 future of Mike Huckabee comes from the DesMoine Register:

"Part of the process is to be able to gauge reaction to the message," Huckabee said of the book, titled "A Simple Government." "And the message in this book is very much a part of helping me determine if there's interest in what I stand for.”

That is a direct statement regarding his serious consideration of a presidential run in 2012, and how he is framing the basis for a decision to run. No need for tea leaves here, as there are striking similarities between Huckabee's response to this release of ”A Simple Government, Twelve Things We Really Need from Washington, and a Trillion We Don’t and his 2007 release of the book: “From Hope to Higher Ground, My Vision for Restoring America’s Greatness in 12 steps, which drew this response from reporters who queried Govenor Huckabee on the 2008 Presidential race: “Former Arkansas Gov Mike Huckabee said for weeks he d decide on a White House run if he got a positive reaction to his new book From Hope to Higher Ground “

Mike Huckabee, who is currently polling very well nationwide is hypothetical matchups, is one of the best candidates in a field of “hypothetical’s”, having run a state government for two and a half terms, and having been able to improve the state of Arkansas on many levels, including streamlining the DMV, balancing budgets, improving schools, and treating the office of the Govenor, not as his personal territory, rather as belong to the people of the State. A bigger plus for music fans: He pardoned Keith Richards. The man has a track record, and although there are detractors who will point out two or three instances in a 12 year term as Govenor, that are somewhat dubious to begin with as “slurs” on Huckabee, the fact remains that few can match his record on governing.

His move to Fox News, as a commentator, as well as his weekly radio ala Steve Harvey addresses, and now, his book tour, with subsequent pre-tour national television interviews, puts Mike Huckabee in practically every living room in the country – people get to know Mike Huckabee, they recognize him, and in polls conducted in those “hypothetical 2012 match-ups”, his favorability ratings are consistently high.

He has name recognition, and he also has the underdog factor: Enter Mitt Romney, former one term Massachusetts Govenor, and 2008 Presidential candidate. It is no secret that some enmity was present during the 2008 campaign. Romney and Huckabee are two very different personas, Huckabee more down to earth and Romney with an appearance of being “carefully packaged” (either fairly or unfairly). When it came to the Iowa Causes, Romney spent millions to Huckabee’s thousands, and Huckabee pulled out a stunning win – the fact that he was able to be that likeable, credible, and on a shoestring candidate, made Huckabee the perfect candidate for a campaign that was doomed from the beginning (2012) as the Republican Brand was so badly damaged, from Congressional races to the race for President, it was doubtful from 2007 that success would be a word used in any Republican race.

Times change and 2012 puts all Republicans in better brand shape. In the terms of branding, Huckabee is perhaps, in better shape as of this moment than any other candidate. Those who shop in advance for someone to support, regardless of party, and in the case of 2012, because of the perceived weakness of the Obama presidency by Democrats, Independents and Republicans alike, Huckabee is one who is repeatedly chosen as a President those shoppers could live with. It is the understanding that in each Presidential election there will be winners and losers, and Huckabee makes no bones about how hard campaigns can be, and that, just perhaps, President Obama may not be quite so easy to best (based perhaps on money, but.. money can’t buy a nations love), however, he’s sitting in the cat bird seat right now.

How long before Huckabee announced the formation of an exploratory committee and will it be “too late” according to those Beltway pundits who rarely get “it” right? One would hazard to estimate that following the book tour, which apparently ends on March 3rd, of 2011 Huckabee’s announcement could come as early as May, 2011, although he’s mentioned June as a “deadline” on more than one occasion (merely a month later). What Huckabee gains by waiting: an opportunity to get out and meet and greet in key states (see the tour list), valuable face time on the nations cable and news networks, talk shows, et al., and the ability to weigh the candidates who will have announced. Additionally, there were only two GOP debates in 2007 before June, the balance of the 18 televised debates held after August 2007. (Source, complete with video of each debate, worth revisiting –

Will Huckabee run in 2012? He hasn’t said no, and he hasn’t said yes, but his book, “Simple Government”, and subsequent tour schedule, certainly indicates his clear intentions to “seriously” weigh a run, and should his new book, not unlike the 2007 model, prove to be popular with those in Florida, Iowa, Texas, Oklahoma et al, then Huckabee will indeed be the peoples candidate in 2012.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

The Return of the Misery Index – Obama Now Faces Inflation and Unemployment to Mimic Carter’s Administration.

Food and fuel prices continue to rise each monthas consumers feel the pinch, at the pump as well as the local grocery store. The Consumer Price index has risen 1.6% in the last two months, which on the face of it, appears to be a minimal increase (WWLP- Springfield), however, with wholesale prices rising (Reuters), across the board inflation is eminent.

When inflation begins to climb, and that rate is added to the unemployment rate, one is experiencing what is known as the “misery index”, which is a combination of both the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate. At no time in history has this been more severe than under former President Jimmy Carter, the eventual outcome was a one-term Carter Presidency and the beginning of the Reagan Era.
To date, President Obama has followed the Carter model in all aspects of governing, it should, therefore, come as no surprise, should he encounter a misery index to equal Carters.

The Commodity Factor

First Protests in Support of Wisconsin Public Employees held in Texas, Nevada and North Carolina draw “hundreds” to State Capitals.

Austin Union Members (some Teachers) protest in support of Wisconsin - photo the

In Austin, Texas over 200 Union members, some of them teachers, protested at the state capital (Austin Statesman), in Nevada hundreds of Public Employees Union Members protested in solidarity (Las Vegas Sun), and in Raleigh NC activists rallied to show support for their Wisconsin counterparts (WRAL), however, most of that article was dedicated (video and print) to the protests in Wisconsin, not mentioning turn-out at the Raleigh rally. Additional rallies are planned for today through the 24th in sixteen additional states, with a few counter protests planned by State Tea Party groups. The apparent lack of interest by rank and file demonstrates two important facts, one, most of the nation’s schools are out on winter break for the week, and the rank and file would rather stay out of the “fray”. Perhaps, just perhaps, teachers in districts across the nation, may want the opportunity to compete for higher wages based on competence, and be independent in the ability to join or not join a union in those states who do not offer “right to work” laws (which ban unions from mandatory enrollment of employees).

In Wisconsin, the Union has conceded, to date, to the slight increases in deductions for both health and pension, requested by Governor Walker, , however, they are standing somewhat adamant about the Governor’s proposal to end collective bargaining on benefits only, and institute a right to work provision whereby teachers would have the option of opting out of joining a union. In addition, Union leaders have asked teachers to return to the classroom this week. A move that would prevent teachers from being fired at the local level where school boards have that ability.

Meanwhile, the Governor refuses to back down, while the Wisconsin Democrat State Senators remain in hiding in Illinois in order to avoid voting on the budget bill that would end union dominance in the public sector. While out state, WI Republican Lawmakers (who are in the majority and can, therefore, vote on bills with the exception of the budget), will work as usual. This move by the Democrats in the Senate has not gone unnoticed by state residents given the comments made under an article at the Madison Journal when they first fled the State.

What this boils down to is the realization by teachers, unions as well as the public, that there simply isn’t the money available to continue to fund up to union standards. In Detroit, Public schools are consolidating, to make up for budget shortfalls, which includes laying off teachers and staff and closing half of the public schools. (Detroit News). This is what occurs when a state has fewer taxpayers than public employees and those on the proverbial “dole”. This may be why attendance at rallies in support of Wisconsin Public Employees has been somewhat slim.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Teacher’s Union Calls for Protests Monday-Tuesday –Urge Teachers to Wear Red – Counter Protests Planned – The Ballot Box will Decide Union Relevance

Teachers Unions have called for protests today and tomorrow February 21st and February 22nd, at various locations in states across the nation. A list of the locations can be found here: at, with the Massachusetts Teachers Union, call for action, here at

Interestingly, the protests in MA to be held at the Springfield City Hall Steps and the Massachusetts State House in Boston, suggest that teachers wear “red” for solidarity, and the website gives instructions to teachers on how to use Facebook and “Tweet” their support for the protests. Interest on Twitter appears to be somewhat lacking for the MA Teachers Union, a search for tweets using #MA4WI, shows approximately 55 “tweets”. The majority of "tweets" coming from the initial “tweeter”, massteacher, with tweets from other state unions urging protests - the newest posts from those who are deriding the protests in MA wondering how many teachers will actually show due to the Commonwealth’s schools vacation week.

Meanwhile, Tea Party Members in the Bay State are planning counter protests; while Tea Party and Conservatives across the nation weigh in on whether or not to protest; due to fear of violence from Union members, with some believing the Teachers and Unions involved in protests are doing enough damage to themselves without outside involvement.

In any event, those in the Western Massachusetts are, will most likely see a protest of some sort on the City Hall Steps in Springfield tomorrow, between 4 and 6 on the 11 o’clock news. Massachusetts teachers are able to protests without fear of repercussion from school districts due to a scheduled vacation; however their counterparts in Wisconsin are facing possible unemployment.

From the Washington Examiner:
Governor Scott Walker indicated on Sunday that without the compromises he has proposed, up to 12,000 state workers will be out of a job. The general populace may not be showing that much sympathy for the union or anyone affiliated with the protests as doctors who had handed out sick notes to teachers who called in sick (for 3 days), are being hit with emails and telephone calls that are less than complementary – this from smack dab in the middle of the protests.

The idiom, “for the children” isn’t flying any longer, as the national and local press report on the union organization receiving help from Obama’s, “Organizing for America” and the SEIU, who managed to bus in 10’s of thousands of “protestors” to Madison.
What’s on the line? Union dues dollars that would fill the coffers of Democrats running for reelection, and as Walker remains steadfast in his proposal, should those Democrats who fled the state be brought back (Walker is using the State Police to hunt them down per the Wisconsin State Constitution), and a vote be taken, those teachers in Madison would have the right to work, without the current rule where they must join a union and pay dues. The fear of those who run the unions and their political counterparts is that this will have a snowball effect nationwide.
One can hazard to guess that Walker, who is steadfast, and who, unlike the SEIU and those who have no interest in the Teachers or the Children, understands the Wisconsin State Budget limitations, without the modest increases in participation in benefit and pensions programs requested by the Govenor, as well as the right to work without being forced to join a union, the state will, in all likelihood, layoff 12,000 workers. One can hazard to guess those workers will be teachers.

Herein lays the crux of the matter, unions have their purpose in protecting those who have no voice, and work in occupations that can be life-threatening- the top ten include the following industries: (based on occupational related fatalities reported by the Department of Labor Statistics) Fishermen, Logging (Timber Industry), Farmers/Ranchers, Steel Workers, Sanitation Workers, Aircraft Pilots, Roofers, Coal Miners, Merchant Mariners, and Millers. Numbers 10 through 20: Power Line Installer, Police Officer, Fireman(woman), Oil and Gas Crew, Cement Makers , Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs, Truck Drivers or Material Movers, Constructor Equipment Operators, Slaughterhouse and rounding out the top 20, Security. Not on the list: teachers and government employees. No kidding. How to the rank and file (Teachers Unions) feel about the “opt out” of a union option?

Visit a Tea Party Meeting.

One might think that the Tea Party is, according to published news accounts, nothing more than right wing activists, however, in visiting a local Tea Party Meeting, those in attendance were, surprisingly, a mixed bag, from State Employees disgusted by the system, to rank and file Democrats, to the retiree concerned about health care reform, to students concerned about the debt, Libertarians, Republicans, Democrats and Independents, Black, White and Hispanic, and yes, teachers - are all invested in the Tea Party principal of fiscal conservatism and less invasive government. Go figure.

As the unions self-implode using staged protests, disrupting the lives of parents (who work) and their children (who should be in school in Madison), and those Democrat Lawmaker who fled Wisconsin (or those in other states that are thinking about doing the same when, not if, similar proposals come to the Governors desks of states overburdened by pensions and benefits for state workers under union rule), the taxpayers will use their best available weapon – the ballot box. It goes without saying that those in Wisconsin and elsewhere, are no longer receiving news from one source; and for the Unions to attempt to turn statehouse rallies into Greek-like protests scenes to meet their objectives may realize the opposite result – perhaps this may fly in Massachusetts or California, but…with these states so indebted and dependent upon Federal aid, how much can they possibly bleed those systems?
Counter protests, or no, the Unions are receiving enough press and it appears that those who pay taxes and fear a Greek-like State, will have the final say. Frankly, no fan of unions for those holding higher degrees, as it takes away from those who actually need a union, it would bring a breath of fresh air, and perhaps higher graduation rates to the states: In Massachusetts where it is reported that the best schools are located, an 80% graduation rate is just fine: Reports here by city Http:// shows the City of Springfield with a 53% graduation rate (as of 2010). How’s the graduation rate in your state? If Massachusetts is allegedly the best the nation has to offer?

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Battle in WI, University Professor Signs Absentee Notes for Teachers – About the Children – Hardly - Transparent Mantra Grown Tiresome to Taxpayers


A story on Maclver Institute complete with video and 8 x 10 color glossy’s, shows exactly how desperate the unions are to keep the chaos going at the WI State Capital. A college professor was noted as singing absentee sick notices for teachers so that they would be able to call in “sick”. The rhetoric is high, and it is getting tired - specifically the old: “it's for the children” tagline that every state, city and or hamlet that wants to end the stranglehold of organized labor hears chanted on the evening news. The problem is that parents are beginning to put two plus two together, and have an inkling that it is more about the teachers and the unions that it is about educating the children, who are, for all intents and purposes, used as pawns in the never-ending quest for more money for the teachers, which is passed onto the union and then to the Democratic National Committee.

The fact that the Democrat Senators fled the state of Wisconsin may end up reversing their rather slim fortunes completely once they stand for reelection. The move is transparently an attempt to prop up a union that props up a political party, and in the end, hurts the educational system “for the children”. Those seeking reelection would have been better to place their bets on their constituents rather than on the winos that hold the nation hostage. Although one must agree that firefighters and police, or any other job description that puts on in harm’s way may need protection, those who hold master degrees, and face the dangerous job of teaching our children (and poorly one might add, considering where our educational system stands), do not.

Many of those teachers mahy not care to be in a union, however, it mandatory to join, in some states, there are opt outs of unions, but a new employee (teacher) must pay a “fee” to opt out, and then face the criticism of the union members. If these so-called educators spent more time actually teaching the students, rather than propping up a policies machine, perhaps the U.S. would be in better shape educationally speaking.

It is the people of Wisconsin and other states where similar measure are sure to follow, that will ultimately make the decisions for the Unions, they will simply not hire those responsible for propping them up. From those in any given State Legislature to the Federal offices of the Congress and the Presidency, those taking an active role (Obama’s campaign arm in 2008,Organizing for America, trucked in extra bodies to the WI State Capital in order to enlarge the protest), will find out how much respect the voters have for organized labor.

Those who will be caught in the middle, should collective bargaining be off the table are those teachers who hang onto the union. Conversely, those who will walk back to class, stand a good chance of keeping their careers intact and, incidentally reaping financial rewards, with a combination of raises and benefits given most professional with the same degrees (minus the hefty monthly union dues). Quality teachers are those who will not stand with the unions, but with their students, because they care more for their profession than for politics. It is as simple as that, and it is perceived as such by those who hire: the taxpayer. Walker is standing firm in the fact of the budget battle, and in retrospect for the nation.

Fast Fact: Nationally, union membership is projected at 7.1 million. (Bloomberg)

Fast Fact:90 Million People cast ballots in 2010)(MSNBC)
The math speaks for itself.

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