Saturday, December 31, 2011

Breaking: 2012 Iowa Caucus Des Moines Register Poll - 41% Still Undecided! Romney Paul Top Poll

The final polling before the 2012 Iowa Caucus this Tuesday, January 3rd, shows that 41% of the respondents could still be pursuaded to chanage their minds - (Des Moines Iowa Register) - currently Romney tops the field with 24%, Paul in second place:

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.

However, over the four days the poll shifted, with Santorum pulling into second, Paul into third, and Romney staying at 24%. Gingrich, Perry and Bachman currently are 4th, 5th and 6th respectively. The poll has a large margin of error at plus or minus 5.6% - given the fact that the last few days of polling saw a shift with half of the 302 of the 600 likely voters polled.

In other words, no one has a clear idea of who will win, place or show in Iowa on Tuesday.

Friday, December 30, 2011

Iowa – Polling Varies to Extreme’s – Anyone’s Guess – Ground Game will Prevail – Ron Paul Organizational Strength

Iowa has been at the center of attention with newscasters touting poll after poll suggesting that Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and variations of Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will be the likely winners of the first 2012 GOP caucus. The latest Insider Advantage poll taken on the 28th of December, shows Paul, Romney and Gingrich in a dead head with Santorum in a statistical 4 way tie within the margin of error. (Marginals PDF hereat Real Clear Politics) A number of polls suggest either a Paul, Romney, Santorum win or any combination one can conceive of those candidates running (with the exception of Huntsman whose focus is now on New Hampshire). It will be the first three placements in Iowa that will count towards any “political capital” going forward to New Hampshire, where Romney is leading in polls, but where, again, one cannot pinpoint, by current polls and the variance that is going to come out in the top tier. It will be the state of South Carolina that will forecast which of these candidates can stay in for the long haul, by the placement of the top two – going forward, the candidate that can hold the South and Midwest on Super Tuesday, will emerge as the front-runner (or front-runners as 2012 appears).

All the Super PAC’s and candidates cash on hand will count towards the battle, in the sense that those left with cash will be able to make those necessary appearances and run advertising in states where they are not known – which is where the crux of the matter lays. With the media 24/7 news cycle it is doubtful that anyone who isn’t living under a rock does not know who is running for the GOP nomination. Even in Massachusetts, the local news is bringing the Republican contest into the first half of the news cast, the focus on Iowa and New Hampshire being so strong, that the affiliates are running national stories on the early contests, including commentary from the local anchors. It appears to be message, message, message and who can appeal across the board to a wide range of voters, including the Democrats who are now considering (and not in a paranoid, Democrat Operative voting for the Republican to spoil the race for a specific candidate, type of way, but in a sincere and selective manner, in which they will, many for the first time, and many for the second time in a matter of 30 years, cross party lines) voting against every political instinct instilled in a Democrat – for a Republican to lead the nation.)

Nothing speaks to this stronger than the marginals of the Insider Advantage Poll, and as a resident of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts (known as the bluest state), a Super Tuesday participant, one cannot help but wonder when those who always cast Massachusetts aside (with the exception of the 2009 special election for the Senate seat, won by Scott Brown) will finally poll the Commonwealth. It is not that Massachusetts would be a deciding factor in any Presidential contest (not withstanding the fact that the state offers 9 electoral votes, which, in a hotly contested race may make the difference), but it would offer a snapshot of the depth of the race, and which of the candidates those Massachusetts Independents (the largest portion of the electorate) were considering for the March 6th contest.

Who resonates, who is the candidate that will capture, not the Republican Party loyalists (otherwise known as the Country Club Republican Set (not unsimilar to those in similar positions in the Democrat Party), but those rank and file members who are making decisions based on the newscasts, the mailers, the candidates that show up in the state, and those that have volunteers in sufficient numbers to knock on doors.

One has to consider who has made appearances, that is likely to go a long way towards additional state and local news, and who has an established ground game. (See Campaign Tracker by the Washington Post – visits to States by Candidate noted in this interactive map). History will also play a factor, if one cannot succeed in the Southern States, one might as well be spitting into the wind, so to speak. Historically, those who have risen to the top of the pile, by virtue of either state wins in caucuses or primaries to win delegates at a convention, or those in a brokered convention, and who cannot, on their own merit, carry the South or the west, will choose a running mate that can – the exception being John McCain, a moderate who chose the conservative Govenor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, to boost the base. Consider the case of Kennedy, who chose Johnson in order to solidify the South, so important it was for that Massachusetts Democrat to have geographic representation in order to secure a win.

Therefore, one must look at strengths and weaknesses, endorsements being what they are, in the eyes of some, specifically those who are less inclined to watch the news more than once in a blue moon, or who pay little attention to the primaries, (this year, perhaps an exception). The GOP endorsements to date (running up to Iowa) have been made in large part to Mitt Romney and those endorsements have been mainly GOP establishment figures, Gingrich has received endorsements from, most recently a noted economics and Michael Reagan, Rick Santorum is being back by former Huckabee campaign personnel and certain evangelical leaders in the state, some of whom have gone so far as to suggest to other candidates that they drop out of the race. Ron Paul – has organization, the scope of which it is doubtful that anyone has bothered to look at with any seriousness – but they should.
Paul has, in the past, had the support of the youth vote (think Occupy Wall Street) but this has changed in the age of the Tea Party (think strict Constitutionalists) and now includes a wide spectrum of ages and individuals who are tired of “business as usual”.

A recent op-ed in the New Hampshire Union Leader by Publisher Joseph W. McQuaid entitled “Ron Paul is truly dangerous” speaks to the rise of the Paul Candidacy and the lack of media attention vis a vis Paul’s national security stance, one which many would conclude, as did Mr. McQuaid, are “dangerous” to the security of the nation. Mr. McQauid also points out that his appeal lays in his “domestic libertarian views” which “are quite attractive to some voters fed up with politics as usual”.

How organized is Paul? Take a look at one of the organizations that is backing Paul, to understand the scope of not only his campaign organization but what amounts to a “super pac” of supporters. The websites for reference are Young Americans for Liberty and the Campaing for Liberty (which boast 600,000 plus members). Granted this may not transform into votes, however, look back at the marginals of the Insider Advantage Poll to understand who is voting in the Iowa Caucus and those states through the end of March that offer proportional delegates to those placing, and open primaries where Independents and Democrats may vote and/or change affiliation to vote in the Republican Primary.

The Poll breakdown is shown below:

Insider Advantage Poll Iowa - click to enlarge

Iowa is of import as well as New Hampshire in measuring the depth of the organization of one Ron Paul versus the lack of grassroots organization of the establishment candidate Mitt Romney, leaving South Carolina and Florida to stop what may become a freight train. Those candidates that garner votes in sufficient numbers that cross party lines are at present: Paul, Gingrich and Bachmann, the three candidates that represent the most “outside of Washington” personas and are able to amass votes from all parties.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Update: Paul Scores in Iowa, Santorum Rises, Gingrich Changes Minds -Raises 9 Million, 1994 Kennedy-Romney Attack ads surface - More

From Politico: “In Iowa, Ron Paul is on time and on message” speaks to the Texas Congressman’s ability to fill a room, on time (literally) and his adherence to his message, anti-war, anti-Fed and pro-Constitution that is managing to attract more than the usual youth vote.

How well is Paul doing in Iowa? Michelle Bachmann’s Iowa campaign chairman just left for the Paul Camp” (Washington Post). Conflicting polls show Paul either leading or tied with Romney as of this past week. That said, in most polls, over 45 % of Iowa caucus goes are still undecided. This one is just about anyone’s game.

Enter Candidate Rick Santorum who has risen in the polls to a third place, the pollster, Public Policy Polling, shows that Santorum has the favorability rating of any candidate in Iowa (Politico). Santorum has been in Iowa from the beginning, he’s practically lived there, and it may just pay off. One might consider that money is the big decider in Iowa – not so: Recall Mitt Romney’s millions against Mike Huckabee’s thousands, and Huckabee’s win in Iowa in 2008. That said, Huckabee was leading in the polls two weeks out from the contest, and although the theme was he could not win due to lack of funds, it was quickly made apparent that “money can’t buy you love” in Iowa.

Newt Gingrich, the candidate with the biggest “target” on his back due to his front runner status which is now reduced due to Romney’s PAC and Paul’s attack ads, along with Bachmann’s robo-call attacks. Gingrich lost that distinction in both Iowa and New Hampshire, but maintains a lead in both Florida and South Carolina (as of this week). In Iowa however, on the ground, he is swaying voters: from the Spencer Daily Reporter: Regarding a town hall style meet and greet one woman got the media’s attention after telling her story, and receiving Gingrich’s answer:

Williams later said she was surprised by Gingrich's compassion, especially after viewing negative ads about him.
"I was truly touched with how kind he was about it ..." she said, with daughters Mollie and Morgan by her side. "Honestly, I thought he might just gloss over my question and he took a moment to let it sink in and then answered it."
Four years ago, Williams supported President Barack Obama and was leaning toward voting for him again, but does not know who to support following Gingrich's response to her questions.
In the closing remarks of his short stump speech, Gingrich extended an invitation to the crowd.
"I will not ask you to be for me because, if you're for me, you'll vote, go home and say, 'I hope he gets the job,'" Gingrich said. "I will ask you to be with me. We need you to be with us for the next four years. ... This is what America has to do if we want to be successful with our children and grandchildren."

In addition, the AP is reporting that Gingrich, over the course of the past three months has raised 9 million in campaign contributions no mean feat when one considers the negative ads. Again, a note of caution on those millions versus thousands and where that may end. Also, on Gingrich nationally, one pundit noted that Newt Gingrich was still doing well outside of Iowa because the rest of the states had not seen the negative advertising, however, one has to understand that every negative ad has been played on every major news outlet in the nation - making it difficult to believe that those living in Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, or Alaska for that matter, have not seen or heard Ron Paul’s or Mitt Romney’s attacks on Gingrich. This lends to the theory that negative ads do not always work as intended.

Speaking of negative advertising, the Romney Camp had better hope they don't work: Red State has uncovered a few ads from the 1994 Romney-Kennedy Campaign, several directly from the Kennedy Campaign and one from the DNC. These ads reference Romney’s platform of “job creation”, the same record he ran on in 2008 and is running on in 2012. The DNC ad shown below never ran, but this is most likely why the Obama Campaign would be set back if another candidate should take the lead - given the fact that they have more opposition research on Romney than anyone. A plus for the Obama campaign: the ad below would be revived, at little to no cost.

Alternately, on the individual mandate: Redstate again, came out with this little ditty on Willard “Mitt” Romney the headline? “TODAY, December 28, 2011, Mitt Romney Calls Obamacare “Conservative”.

Romney continues to defend the Massachusetts model he created (with a little help from Ted Kennedy), the plan which was the model for “Obamacare” and which has those uninsured in Massachusetts scrambling to come up with the cash to pay the Commonwealth for a)not being able to afford one of the three plans offered in the state (four if you count Commonwealth Care, which is not accepting new enrollees (open enrollment only), and is as expensive as the three “private carriers”, b) therefore “assessed a fee” that is equal to the amount one would have paid in premiums!! The money goes to – that’s a question often asked by those paying the Massachusetts equivalent to the IRS, or having their wages garnished in the event they can’t come up with the “fee” on time. There is, to be fair, a provision that allows one who is unemployed, and who’s employer does not offer health insurance (one must work outside the state to take advantage of this), to apply for a “hardship” waiver with the Commonwealth. The fact that the program is the largest portion of the Commonwealth Budget, bypassing Education, is also telling. Conservative – perhaps in its initial concept, whereby those earning more than $75,000 a year having to provide for themselves instead of skipping out on hospital bills. However, as it developed past theory into reality, it would be fair to say that $75,000 in Boston pre-tax is the poverty level. In addition, the lack of competitive programs makes it impossible for those living in the Bay State to buy insurance at a competitive rate – unless the Commonwealth opens the floodgates, and allows individuals to buy across state lines. (They did so with Auto Insurance and there was immediate relief.). Again, the original concept was ok, in theory, however, once put into practice….there are families in the Bay State that are suffering. (One would hazard to guess that if he is the nominee it would be difficult to contrast and compare himself to Obama on that front.)

All in all its a hard driven, dramatic, up and down GOP Contest, one which is on the plus side, getting a great deal of media attention, individual voters are interested (especially former Obama voters), and the roller-coaster of the campaign is nothing new - not as tidy as the GOP would like, but, this may end up being for the best, going down to the wire perhpas with two or three candidates going into the convention. All former bets are off, there's no way of telling at this point in time, who will be up next, who will be down, and who will be out.

DNC Campaign ad from 1994

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Sears to Close 120 Stores, 10,000 Jobs at Risk, Housing Prices and Foreclosures Decline - President asks for Rise in Debt Ceiling - Spending Continues

Playing Golf to reach a deal? Washington At Work - image

In the post-Holiday sales review, Sears has made the decision to close up to 120 stores, including both Sears and K-Mart, resulting in a loss of up to 10,000 jobs (Reuters), add to that the continual decline in housing, where foreclosures remain up and the average price of homes continues to drop. (PBS). With retail and housing slumping, and little to no manufacturing left within the United States, President Obama is asking for yet another increase in the debt ceiling to the tune of 1. 2 Trillion dollars. (Reuters)

The never ending spending that is emanating from the Congress can be found in a rather interesting report issued by Senator Tim Coburn, which(R-OK) (Full PDF Here) details wasteful spending while the economy continues to tank. Items included in the report are

• $75,000 to promote awareness about the role Michigan plays in producing Christmas trees & poinsettias.
• $15.3 million for one of the infamous Bridges to Nowhere in Alaska.
• $113,227 for video game preservation center in New York.
• $550,000 for a documentary about how rock music contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
• $48,700 for 2nd annual Hawaii Chocolate Festival, to promote Hawaii’s chocolate industry.
• $350,000 to support an International Art Exhibition in Venice, Italy.
• $10 million for a remake of “Sesame Street” for Pakistan.
• $35 million allocated for political party conventions in 2012.
• $765,828 to subsidize “pancakes for yuppies” in the nation’s capital.
• $764,825 to study how college students use mobile devices for social networking.

$764,825 to study how college students use mobile devices for social networking – seriously – this during a time where most people, from the lower to middle class are bypassing steak in the hopes of being able to afford hamburger at the grocery store, and with the state and federal taxes on everything from gasoline to pet food to garbage bags, to fees on phone lines, including cells, and every utility under the sun, one would think those who still have a job, and are “taxed enough already”, would anticipate that the government, would, at the least, use their tax payers dollars wisely.

Not so much.

What is needed is a leader who would have the ability to stand up to the status quo (as in Harry Reid) and lead the nation back to not just a recovery but an increase in prosperity that is available to every single American. There will never be another Ronald Reagan, but that said, we need someone who has the ability to work with both parties, who has a record of doing so, no matter if they anger both sides, and who will take their case to the public if neither side wants to play nice in the wasteful sandlot that is Washington DC. There are candidates that fit the bill, at least two, and as 2012 plays out in the caucus and in Washington that a leader emerges from the ashes of the GOP nominating process or President Obama, to put it bluntly, stands up to Harry and the Democrats and gets the Senate under control – the last thing this nation needs is another useless committee, but a decisive leader who would tell those idiots that the people hire: “No, you cannot have $780,000 plus to study social networking use by college students – you do that and It will be breaking news in 10 seconds”. It is a time for the nation to take a step backwards, to re-introduce welfare reform, to take a second look at proposals that would put the nation back to work, including cutting corporate taxes in order to bring manufactures back to the U.S., and if that means throwing the unions, the Democrats, the Republicans or the lobbyists and or corporate campaign contributors under the bus, so be it. How much longer do the American people need to suffer in the name of ideology and partisan politics?

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Ron Paul Chasing Romney in NH – The Big What If Game Changer for Romney and the GOP Establishment - Gingrich and Paul as the Last Men Standing

Paul and Gingrich in the debate format - image

From the Boston Globe’s: “Paul sparks passion in Granite State”comes an article that speaks to the depth of “passion” supporters of the Texas Congressman who would be President, elicits from supporters. These supporters have, in the past, been younger – college students and those in their mid-to late 20’s – times are a-changing. Paul is now garnering support not only from his traditional base of the youth vote, but from those who might otherwise be considered more conservative and not shocking at all, more liberal. Paul, who is a Libertarian and runs as a Republican, has a philosophy of limited government, individual freedom, and, perhaps most appealing to a great range of age demographics, a non-interventionist policy towards use of the military.

In random “kitchen table” conversations over the holidays, one found that those that are traditional Democrats are looking at Ron Paul as an alternative to the standard GOP as well as the incumbent, President Barack Obama. Generally, those in Massachusetts that are considered “solid Democrat” are also anti-war, on a scale that is perhaps larger than the balance of the nation. To find those individuals seriously considering, or committed to the Ron Paul campaign is at first startling, as it crosses party lines that are rarely crossed (see Massachusetts General Election voting history, where in only two cases in recent memory did the Bay State vote Republican: twice for Ronald Reagan.)

Paul appeals to those who are “sick of government” or “tired of all these wars” and alternately, those who want “government out of our schools, and our lives” – from hard-line Constitutionalists (i.e. Tea Party) to those who are still banging bongo drums in protest of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to the youth who see no recourse and no hope for the future as long as the government remains in the status quo.

It may explain why Paul is doing so well in Iowa; he has the ability to attract the grassroots support necessary to push a win in a Caucus state, one that allows independents to participate in the nominating process. Iowa is not the only state to prescribe to the “open primary or caucus” – in fact Paul’s supporters are well aware of the 17 states that allow open primaries, and of those states, most take place on or before Super Tuesday. That said, the GOP has released the 2012 delegate playbook (PDF download here form the Weekly Standard,) which suggest that some states adopt a “Winner Take ALL “ delegate allocation, however, it is anticipated that certain states will continue to offer “proportional delegate allocation”. In this process, states that are designated as winner take all release all delegates to the candidate that amasses 50% or more of the total primary/caucus vote. In states where the rules are proportional allocation, delegates are allocated based on the percentage of the vote candidates receive (see “participation trophy”). Those states are few and far between after Super Tuesday.

In general, the candidate that amasses the most delegates by mid-March is seen as the eventual nominee, not only in terms of the ability to raise money based on their standing, but also in the makeup of the balance of the primary states.

The Polls: From Real Clear Politics one finds a variety of GOP polls , from national to the primary states, using a method of a “combined” score used for all candidates (averages all polls taken to rank a candidate). At this stage, Ron Paul ranks third nationally, behind Romney and Gingrich; all three have double digit leads, with Gingrich and Romney showing double Paul’s percentage. However, at this early stage in polling, these numbers are extremely fluid, and are subject to change on a weekly basis. In Iowa, Paul leads within the margin of error, with Romney and Gingrich following, In New Hampshire Romney leads, with Paul and Gingrich following. In South Carolina, Gingrich has a commanding lead of 37%, but again, Romney and Paul follow and the same scenario exists in Florida. These are the first four states that hold either a caucus or primary.

As attack ads from the Romney and Paul campaigns have weakened Gingrich’s lead in New Hampshire and Iowa, the consequence has been a rise in the polls for Paul. In addition, in Virginia, the Republican Committee disqualified over 1,000 signatures for both the Gingrich and the Perry campaign (Gingrich was leading Romney in the polls in Virginia and Romney is considered the “GOP establishment choice for nominee”). The only two that qualified for the ballot were Romney and Paul. In 2008, Paul bested Romney by a large margin in Virginia – the state GOP in attempting to block Romney’s competitors, set up a probable win for Paul in that Super Tuesday State.

Taking all of the preceding into account, the opportunity for Paul’s campaign to take the lead in several states, with Gingers continuing to poll high in South Carolina and Florida, sets up a 2008 déjà vu for Romney, and the possibility to Paul to seriously compete, especially in states where there are more liberal/moderate primary and caucus voters, and large delegate shares. This brings up the question as to who the Democrats would rather have as an opposition candidate – Romney is their first choice due to the media and GOP focus on Romney, the Obama campaign amassed vast amounts of political intelligence on the former Massachusetts Governor, all but ignoring the rest of the candidates. At this stage it the game, it would be difficult but not impossible to attempt to garner the same intelligence against Paul and Gingrich, who both have long and open records, which are more difficult to distort. In addition, both Gingrich and Paul can claim Washington “outsider” status – Gingrich on the length of team out of Congress and Paul simply because of his Libertarian ideology. In Paul’s case, especially, an ideology that appeals to the Democrat anti-war base.

All bets are currently off the table as to which way this primary will go, however, the eventual nominee, should the current Presidential Approval rankings hold, will face an incumbent that has an average approval well under 50%, with a majority of American’s dissatisfied with the direction of the country, in numbers not seen since 1979 (the last year of the Carter administration, where President Carter, not unlike President Obama, saw a job approval spike in the later end of that year – to no avail.) Therefore, either Gingrich, Romney or Paul would be in a position to win the general, however, it is more likely, given the historical makeup of the 2008 general GOP primaries, that both Gingrich and Paul will be the last men standing, unless Romney can, on a national and state by state level, move past is 20 – 25% support, with New Hampshire currently, the only state where he is above 20% in pre-primary polling.

Monday, December 26, 2011

Gingrich a Look Back – The Bush Take-down and Rise of the Republican Congress – Reviled and Respected by Both Parties – The Negotiator and Deal Maker

Newt Gingrich and Bill Clinton talking Budgets - image Washington Post

From the Washington Post: a column by Bob Woodward, offers insight into the rise and fall of Newt Gingrich within the Republican Party and those in the establishment who still harbor resentment for actions taken by the powerful Speaker of the House. In brief, Gingrich is blamed by President H.W. Bush for his eventual loss of the Presidency, not for the fact that he actually was drummed out of office on the pledge that he would not raise taxes, then did so in a deal with Democrats, but because in this article, Gig rich clearly would not sign onto a deal that he felt was not in the best interest of the American People, and was not well negotiated, it was a bad deal.

This is of course, paraphrased, in an article that covers the history of Gingrich and the House by Woodward, and it is suggested that he entire article be read to fully understand how an outsider, one who does not go with the Republican Party, is treated by the Establishment, as well as how a Powerful Speaker who is also a Republican, and who works closely with a Democrat President to get things done (President Bill Clinton), is anathema to both parties who would prefer to sit back and draw partisan lines in the sand and call it a day.

Key words that stuck out like a sore thumb, better negotiation and deals – if that does not make Gingrich sound like the Donald Trump candidate, no one does. Which brings up a point – Trump has stated on numerous occasions that if the Republicans’ fail to nominate the right candidate, then he would run as an independent. Understanding that he may not be referring to Gingrich at all, but speculating that he may given the verbiage used and the former Speakers ideology about negotiating from a point of strength, in addition to the latest move of the Establishment GOP to oust Gingrich off the Virginia Primary ballot by disqualifying over 1000 signatures, insisting that each one must have a voter ID, whereas that was not a previous requirement, smacks of a set-up to knock Gingrich out of the race. (See the point that Romney may not make it past Super Tuesday and the possibility that Ron Paul may take Virginia) – Should Donald Trump carry through on his promise to run given the circumstances of the Republican nomination and not knowing which candidate he feels would be the best to broker deals and be the best negotiator, one can only understand that Trump will take votes from both Democrats and Republicans, in numbers sufficient to throw the race back to Barack Obama. It is the Democrats Dream.

The scenario of a third party candidate was the exact circumstance that led to the reelection of Deval Patrick in Massachusetts by one point – an election, David Axelrod, Obama advisor and campaign guru, watched closely and hoped to put into play for the 2012 general.

The Newt Gingrich as anti-Republican, and in plain language egotistical, is seen in the latest article from Politico, that headlines: Newt Gingrich, Bill Clinton battle over 1990s legacy one finds that there is no quote from Bill Clinton, rather those “Democrat Strategist” pulled for the beltway to remark on events in which they were clearly not involved. This completely contradicts Clinton’s own words, in an interview with Newsmax (Article Here: in which he Praises his “Old Foe, Gingrich)

Suffice it to say, that not one of the pundits have a crystal ball, nor the blogger or the hundreds of pollsters how have come out of the woodwork lately, to give an indication of how the vote will go in the GOP primary – but the constant media drumbeat is as follows: Mitt Romney will be the nominee, Newt Gingrich will continue to decline in the “polls”, and Ron Paul is not a serious candidate. One might recall the constant drumbeat for Romney in 2008 and McCain in 2008, two individuals who are keen moderates in the vein of an Olympia Snow of Maine, and who the Republican Party believes will be able to “play ball” and keep the status quo. It is the conservative candidates that who might cross party lines to get the job done, without caving in completely (See current Speaker Boehner), that are poison to both he GOP and the DNC.

It may well be that Romney is the nominee, and in that case, everyone from the Obama campaign (who has the opposition research to launch a very aggressive campaign against Romney) to the establishment Republican’s who have another Bob Dole or John McCain, will be thrilled, while millions of independents and Republican’s (not the political class) will find themselves either staying home, or going to the polls knowing that the vote they cast may have one of two results. Romney would lose, similar to those who have gone before with the same ideology and marketing, and /or Romney will win, and that means we have a former Governor of Massachusetts in the White House, and from this perspective, it will mean little change from one administration to the other – there will be no bold moves, and lots of compromises in order to maintain the status quo.

Of course, a lot will depend on Donald Trump and Ron Paul, who one can gather will have an impact on the outcome of the 2012 election. It appears that the GOP has grossly underestimated Ron Paul’s constituency, and his national appeal to those who would cross party lines – to vote for a man who has a foreign policy ideology that is slightly more progressive in practice than President Obama!

To achieve the above scenario, one must also takes into consideration that the media does not hold the sway they did in 2006 to 2008, and that the negative ads that Romney and Paul have unleashed on Gingrich will then be turned upon one-another. It will be a Phoenix that rises out of the ashes of that fiasco that will eventually gain the nomination. One thing may be stated without one prediction being made; the race may indeed be decided by March. The outcome of which, is anyone’s guess, but looking at current polling and should the GOP keep its hands off the state’s primary process, then that candidate may well be Newt Gingrich. Suggest watching Clinton Interview with Newsmax.

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