Friday, August 08, 2008

Obama’s Poll Woe’s – It’s the Women, Stupid

Several articles have posed the question: “Why isn’t Obama in better shape?” Polls continue to show the Democrat Presidential Nominee in a statistical tie with Republican, John McCain, after a much ballyhooed and media blitzed world tour, where it was anticipated that Obama would widen the lead between himself and McCain substantially.

So, where to cast the blame? First, media saturation: Apparently, getting to know Obama 24/7 may have been too much for the regular folk: - there is a new symptom”Obama Fatigue”.

Second: That scoundrel, John McCain, has had the nerve to run an attack ad comparing Obama to Paris Hilton, both the Obama campaign and Miss Hilton shot back, only her method appeared to chide McCain, rather than mock. In the Hilton “ad”, McCain is depicted as the oldest celebrity, and Hilton goes on to give an overview of an energy plan that resembles McCain – she does not mention Obama. This ingĂ©nue has given McCain a boost – between McCain’s hysterical Obama ads, and Ms. Hilton’s spoof, McCain has passed Obama in views. Significant – you bet – You-Tube demographics are youth oriented.

Thirdly, (these are not in any specific order), and most importantly - Women. The New York Times is asking "What does Hillary Want”? That answer should be as plain as the nose on anyone’s face – the nomination - and vidication. Is she a power driven, crazy woman who is so self-centered that she wants to lay waste to the Progressive party’s dreams? No – she’s a realist. Understanding that once the public got to know Obama, despite the best efforts of the DNC, his campaign and the media to give the man a proverbial pass - the honeymoon would fade and McCain, not exactly a darling of conservatives, would tighten the race, eventually leading the Republican Party to another term in the White House. What the patriarchs in that Party failed to notice, (but Clinton did) was that women, were beginning to take notice of Ms. Clinton’s treatment, by the press, by her peers, and by the Party elite – it was transparently sexist. As the Howard Deans and Jimmy Carter’s increased the pressure on Clinton to pack it in and embrace Obama, a backlash occurred that crossed party lines. Conservatives, many of whom no longer had a “dog in the hunt”, were looking at all three remaining candidates - and women, conservative women, were leaning – Clinton. She was prevented, by the men in her Party, and by the media (and one power-hungry Nancy Pelosi) from breaking that coveted glass ceiling. The old adage “Hath no fury” should have been taken into account.

Regardless of the outcome of the Democrat Convention, (Clinton supporters would love to nominate, and oust Obama), John McCain will have positioned himself so that, barring a major catastrophe, he should handily win the White House, in a year that was touted as a sweep for the DNC (and all this with the help of some angry and frustrated women who thought all was possible.) Will the DNC be ready to listen in 2012?

Thursday, August 07, 2008

John Kerry - “In a Corner” Tour – Primary Woes Continue

John Kerry, Junior Senator (D) Massachusetts, who is facing his first primary challenge in 23 years, has made several appearances in the Bay state in the past few weeks. This is the first time in decades that Kerry has been forced to actively campaign for his seat – one would expect that Kerry, a national figure, popular with the party elite, would be a shoe-in for reelection – but there are doubts.

Ata recent campaign stop in Quincy, Kerry was surrounded by 25 supporters and his campaign stop in Framingham, netted a crowd of 100, where “almost all wore Kerry stickers”.

Although the Polls have been kind to Kerry, a recent Suffolk University Poll indicates that the incumbent may be in bigger trouble than previously anticipated. Barrack Obama’s lead in Massachusetts is tumbling (Jeff Beatty Republican predicted a McCain victory in Massachusetts in July) and John Kerry’s lead over Jeff Beatty is just breaking 51 % in the poll of 400 respondents - not good new for the incumbent this early in the game. The Republican challenger, Jeff Beatty has only begun to run television ads in the Bay State – holding back until after the results are in from the September Democrat primary.

What seems to be Senator Kerry’s problem in a state that has been taken for granted for years? There may be several answers, but one that comes immediately to mind is – Clinton Supporters. The junior senator, who began backing Obama in 2004, endorsed his candidacy after the majority of his constituents voted for Hillary Clinton in the February 2008 primary. Ed O’Reilly appears to be a favorite of those Clinton supporters who have yet to embrace Obama, and Kerry has become a target.

The ACTBlue website also shows an indication of how well Kerry is doing against his affable challenger, Ed O’Reilly. O'Reilly is garnering donations from Progressive Clubs and Clinton supporters - 258 individuals with 7 different organizations donating to his campaign in 2008. On the other hand, John Kerry , has a measly 4 organizations supporting him in this cycle, with exactly 4 donations to his campaign, a noted departure from previous years.

To learn more about the challenged and the challengers visit:
Ed O’Reilly and his campaign – Ed O’
Jeff Beatty and his campaign – Jeff
John Kerry and his campaign – John

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

House Republican’s Revolt against Pelosi Continues – Oil Prices Continue to Fall

The Price of Oil has dropped again yesterday, to 118.60 as speculators backed away – coinciding (coincidentally) with the third day of protest by House Republicans. The House was called into recess last week for a five week vacation by Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Pelosi had continued to block a vote on an energy plan that would allow for offshore drilling, a popular energy plan with U.S. consumers. House Republicans continued to call for a vote, after Ms. Pelosi shut down the House, turned off the lights, and tried to silence those that were calling attention to the nations’ energy crisis.

The first noticeable drop in the price of oil came after President Bush lifted the Presidential Ban on Offshore Drilling, on July 14. At the time, oil was trading at $145 per barrel – a week after Bush lifted the ban and called on Congress to act, oil fell to $128. On Monday, oil dropped again - below $120, and the trend continues while House Republicans continue to call for action.

Although Pelosi publicly continues to stonewall, calling the House Protest a "war dance of the handmaidens of the oil companies.", Politco reported that she is privately telling those Democrats who are in danger of losing a seat, to go ahead and back offshore drilling. John Boehner, Republican Minority Leader, has asked House Democrats to join in an effort that would force the speaker to bring the Republican energy bill to a vote.

What can the “we the people” expect? The House Republican’s have vowed to continue their occupation of the darkened House and speculators will continue to look for excuses to back off oil futures – fearing that offshore drilling will become a reality. Should Pelosi come to her senses, allow the vote, and should it pass (which it is fairly apparent it would handily) America’s mere ability to tap into the nations vast oil supplies will send the price of oil to reasonable pre-Democrat controlled house levels. The nation cannot wait much longer, with home heating costs expected to double this year, those living in the Northeast, West and the Heartland, who don’t have the financial resources of a Pelosi, Kerry or Obama (recently changing his mind on offshore drilling), will be forced to bear the burden of her politically motivated inaction. Additionally, the people pay attention - Pelosi and companys shift with political winds - and subsequent actions speak to character and trustworthiness - these individuals, from the Oval Office through the House are merely hired by the people - political fortunes, like political winds, are subject to change.

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Jeff Beatty – Batting 1000, predicts Republican Victory in Massachusetts.

Jeff Beatty, Republican Candidate for U.S. Senate was on hand to throw out the first pitch today for the American Legion Baseball Tournament at Szot Park in Chicopee. . He was introduced to a strong round of applause, and after he threw out the first pitch - came off the field to words of encouragement, “I hope you win” - players and bystanders alike reached out to shake his hand.

There is something about this candidate – he is likable. The first thing one notices about Jeff Beatty is his ready smile - his hand outstretched in greeting - the kind of guy you want for your next door neighbor – not the “untouchable politician” looking for the next “photo opp”. Watching Beatty walk through the crowd, stopping to chat or take a picture – one quickly understands his grassroots appeal – Beatty has a genuine interest in what the other guy or gal has on their mind – he listens. He has a brand of subtle charisma, soft spoken – yet authoritative and intelligent – a leader. This assessment is from one who has had the opportunity to meet and listen to a few politicians at the state and national level over the past 40 years – those who have run those who have also-ran – Beatty is poised to succeed.

He agrees with the majority of Americans when it comes to the nation’s energy crisis - something that is one everyone’s mind – Beatty is in favor of offshore drilling – accessing America’s oil supplies and increasing the nations capacity to refine.

He also understands the political landscape. Back in early July, he predicted that McCain, with a 20 plus point polling deficit against Obama in Massachusetts – would begin to gain, and eventually take the 12 Massachusetts electoral votes. Good call - a recent 7 News/Suffolk University Poll shows Obama’s lead over McCain in Massachusetts has fallen to 9 points. Although there is this preconceived notion that Massachusetts is a Democrat stronghold (the only state that McGovern carried in 1972), the heavy concentration of those unenrolled voters (51%), can produce a Republican win in presidential races (Reagan, 1980 and 1984), Senatorial Races (Edward Brooke, Republican (also the first African American to be elected to the Senate) 1972, and the Governor’s office (Weld, Romney). It is all about the political climate, and that climate is subject to change. There is a certain South Dakota, circa 2004, atmosphere in the Bay state.

Ed O’Reilly, Democrat Gloucester, has a Kennedyesque charm and may surprise both the Bay state and incumbent John Kerry in the September primary. Kerry, who has deep ties to Barrack Obama, dating to the 2004 Democrat convention , endorsed the Illinois Senator against his constituents wishes (the Bay state Democrats overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton’s candidacy), this and his stance on the Iraq war, led to O’Reilly garnering well over 15% of the delegates necessary to place him on the September primary ballot, at the Democrat Convention in Lowell.

Therefore, it is now a question of who Jeff Beatty will face in November – an incumbent who 51% of voters polled believe should be replaced (Suffolk University Poll) or the affable, but left-of-left, O’Reilly. Massachusetts will be the state to watch this November.

Photographs taken Szot Park, Chicopee - Non-Professional

Obama’s Boston Birthday Bash - $28,500 Dinner Ticket

Barrack Obama spent the evening in Boston amongst friends, in an effort to raise additional cash for his “victory fund”. Tickets for “dinner with Obama”, were set at $17,000 for an individual and $28,500 per couple, or for most of those left in the Bay state, the cost to heat a home for the winter, pick up the tab on the Bay states Mandated Health Care Reform bill, and general financial support to the state in the form of Income Tax (On the Ballot to Repeal), Sales Tax, Gasoline Tax, and sundry other fees. The sharp contrast between those that have (Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry) and those that are trying to survive (actual Baystaters') is evident in the party that was once herald as belonging to and fighting for “the working man”.

The article also notes that many Hillary Clinton supporters came out to toast and open their wallets for Barrack. Out of $5,000,000 raised - $700,000 came from Clinton supporters in the Bay state, a signal taken to mean all Clinton supporters are on the Obama band-wagon. That may mean some Clinton Supporters who have the cash on hand to throw at Obama are going in that direction, but it does not include the rank and file Massachusetts Democrat voter. Social networking sites such as MySpace, which continues to be home to many political campaigns grassroots efforts, tell a different story.
Hillary Clinton 2012 grassroots MySpace site has over 63,000 “friends”, with calls to action - bulletins urging donations to Cindy Sheehan’s campaign – Cindy Sheehan is campaigning for Nancy’s Pelosi’s seat. Not everyone is on Obama’s bus – specifically women (Democrats) who feel that the best chance for their party to regain the white house, slipped through their fingers when Party Leaders, like John Kerry (D. MA), threw their support behind Barrack Obama, often against the wishes of their constituants.

Both Kerry and Pelosi are facing opposition from within their own party – in Kerry’s case, Ed O’Reilly, a populist Gloucester, MA resident, is gaining ground and momentum as the September primary approaches. While John Kerry had a stop in a local donut shop in Framingham that drew an embarrassing 50 supporters, Ed O’Reilly around the state appearances have been well-received – he relates to the base, and he even looks a bit like a Kennedy! Who, in the Bay State would support such a candidate over the much “revered” John Kerry? How about Clinton supporters?

Meanwhile, yesterday Obama appeared to switch his position, yet again, on offshore drilling, while in the company of “Save the Planet” Pelosi. Pelosi is being called to task by House Republicans - who are scheduled to continue to protest over Pelosi’s refusal to allow a vote on offshore drilling, instead, calling the House into recess for 5 weeks. John McCain, to his credit, said Congress should reconvene to deal with the energy crisis – the only person who can call the Congress back into an emergency session is the President – so far, no interest from the White House in supporting those Republican congressmen protesting on the Hill.

As Democrats continue to ponder why Obama and the rest of the Democrats are not showing huge gains in the polls, (Latest Opinion Polls give McCain a 1 point lead nationwide) the “average Joe and Jane” are looking at ways to heat their home this winter, drive to work, and continue to pay for groceries – all they understand is that it costs $28,500 to sit down with Obama for dinner and Nancy Pelosi would rather stump for her book than take the time out to vote on Offshore Drilling. Although most media is treating the Republican House Protest as some sort of “prank”, and most articles are found, if at all, buried on Fox, CNN and like websites, increasing awareness through social networking sites, has people admiring those that would stand up for and communicate directly with – the people. It also highlights the differences between the party “elites” and their constituents – nothing should be taken for granted in 2008.

Monday, August 04, 2008

Live from the House - Republican Patriots Day Two

The Republican House Members are back in session. It does the heart good to see those who represent the poeple doing their job. These principaled individuals give hope to the future stablity of our nation.

House Republican Uprising - Live Blog

Open Lettter to Nancy Pelosi from the Republican House Leadership

The Republican House Revolt - Day Two

House Republicans August 4th – Patriots Continue America’s Energy Debate in Darkened House

House Leader, John Boehner (R. Ohio) and Roy Blunt (House Whip, R. Missouri) sent a memo to Republican members of the House and their staff on over the weekend urging them to continue to protest and debate America’s energy crisis on Monday. John Culberson (R. Texas) and other house members, will continue to provide updates to constituants via Twitter today.

To what end? The call to action by this group of House Republicans is in the interest of the people, unlike their Democrat counterparts, led by House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi. Pelosi called the House into recess on Friday (5 week summer vacation), while House Republicans continued to protest and debate on the floor. Pelosi has continued to refuse to allow a vote on offshore drilling, despite the fact that the Democrats have a majority in the House and should, if one were to believe they were “one party in concert”, easily defeat the Republican Energy proposal. So, what could possibly prevent the Speaker from putting an end to this? The only logical conclusions are that Pelosi feels she would lose if the bill were put to a vote, or she is simply so power driven that she cannot see the trees for the forest.

Nancy has been busy, she’s promoting her latest book and she is also pushing her choice for the Democrats V.P. pick
Chet Edwards,on Obama. Surely within five weeks, she might find the time to address the American people’s needs? Perhaps she may even take time to notice that Cindy Sheehan, , her San Francisco contemporary, is expected to make the ballot and run against Madam Speaker. In a year where the Democrat controlled Legislature continues to poll at historically low favorability ratings, it would not come as a shock should Ms. Sheehan replace the speaker. (Think San Francisco.)

Republican’s have asked Ms. Pelosi to call Congress back in an emergency session to vote on this bill. From John Boehner’s website: “It’s not a request we make lightly. But the American people are suffering,” Boehner and Blunt said in the memo. “The consequences of continued congressional inaction on gas prices are unacceptable. We’ve called on the Speaker to call Congress back into an emergency session this month and schedule a vote on the American Energy Act. We must continue to make a stand until the Speaker complies.”

It is about time that the people we hire (those citizens who we, the people, vote into office to represent our needs) took action on our behalf. The type of “revolt” that the Republican house members began on Friday is exactly what makes one proud to be a part of this great Republic. They are displaying true patriotism. With an issue that is so urgent to the public, it is surprising that not one member from the other side of the political aisle has joined in an attempt to put the needs of their constituents over the wishes of their party master.

Playing “devils advocate”, one might argue that this group of Republicans are only looking for media attention and that they are playing on this issue in order to drive up the stock of the Republican Party. However, were that true, why would they have continued to debate without a single national media outlet available? (House Speaker Pelosi effectively kicked out the media on Friday, shutting down C-Span and removing reporters from the House). With the House still in darkness, and with limited ability to reach the public, the few will continue to speak for the people. Hurrah!

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