Friday, August 26, 2011

AP-GFK Poll - Republicans More Vested in Current GOP Fieldtes – 43% Dems Included in Poll – Missing: Obama Clearly Unelectable

From AP-GFK Poll Toplines: Democrats Leaning Towards Republican Candidates - Image: From APGFK Poll PDF Toplines

From the Miami Herald – the Headline: “AP-GfK Poll: Most Republicans happy with GOP field” belies the fact that the majority of those polled were Democrat, or Democrat leaning Independents. The Poll toplines can be found here in PDF. Those with the highest favorability ratings in this particular schematic are: Rudy Giuliani at 50%, Michele Bachman at 35%, Mitt Romney at 39%, Sarah Palin at 36%, Ron Paul at 37% and Rick Perry at 33%. Rudy Guiliani taking a substantial lead in a Republican poll as an unannounced candidate gave this blogger pause. As a result, a closer look at the Toplines revealed the fact that 32% of those polled as Republican’s included only 9% “Strong Republican, as opposed to 43% of Democrats at 13% Strong Democrat, which skews the poll results if, in fact, this poll headline suggests a Republican poll only. That said, with favorability ratings at above 32%, one understands that Democrats are engaged in the GOP candidates. Are they more likely Tea Party Members? The Tea Party, much maligned by the press as well as the Administration and Democrat Congressional Reps and Senators, attract more moderate Democrats and Independents – although no official polling has been done, Tea Party Groups are a mixture of political ideology and parties, all however, are vested the Constitution and Fiscal Restraint, which attributes can be attributed to either major political party moderates.

However, if those Democrats polled are vested in Republican Candidates, across the board, then one has to ponder the fact that up to 18% of Democrats are seriously looking at the GOP field. If this schematic is accurate, any one of the GOP nominees would be the next President, which is in line with Generic Ballots from Rasmussen August, 23, 2011 Generic Presidential Ballot 2012, where any Republican bests the President by a margin of 48%, to 43% (Obama).

In addition, as of this week Gallup’s Presidential Weekly Job Approval, shows Obama holding steady at 40%, which is a low point for the administration. In addition, most pollsters understand that there is a 5 point deficit to that poll, including the margin of error. At this point in time, should the economy fare worse or maintain its current status over the next three to six months, it is highly improbable that Obama will be reelected.

Moreover, the AP/GFK poll headline should have read: “Across the Board, Democrats and Republicans are more Interested in the GOP field than in previous months” – a more accurate headline, however, unlikely to get any attention from the press.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Obama Golf’s on “Miss Me Yet” Bush T-shirt Infested Vineyard, Rick Perry Rockets To Top of Gallup GOP Polling – Analysis and Satire

While the Polls Turn - Obama on the Vineyard - image

The President is on Martha’s Vineyard, whereaccording to the AP, he’s finished an island tri-fecta, playing three courses during this vacation. It’s not all fun and games for the President, he was also briefed on Hurricane Irene, which computer models now show is headed directly towards New England (and the Vineyard). This trip, “Miss Me Yet” George W. Bush T-Shirts, have made their return to the New England exclusive playground, replacing pro-Obama gear in the gift shops - Ouch.

Recent Update on Path of Irene - Image My Fox Dallas

While Obama was out playing golf, Rick Perry, Govenor of Texas and GOP Presidential Candidate, managed to zip to the top of the charts of the most recent Gallup Poll, knocking out Romney as front-runner. The poll included Republican’s and Republican “leaning” independents, who preferred Perry to the other candidates listed (in order of choice): Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Tim Pawlenty, with other and No Preference drawing the majority of the responses.

Perry bests the other candidates in the following categories: men and women, 30 to 65 plus, (Ron Paul leads the 18 Plus with 29%, however, Perry comes in second with 21% to Romney’s 11%), Perry leads the Midwest, the South and the West, and virtually tying the Northeast! Romney does best among Liberal to Moderates, while Perry cleans house among Conservatives. An Interesting category was added as the last question: Church attendance and frequency thereof. Perry leads across the board, whether that voter attends church weekly or not at all. One has to ask, what’s religion got to do with a GOP Presidential Race and when was that question last poised to those being polled regarding a Democrat? Is it a relevant question? Yes, only in the sense that it now indicates Perry appeals to a broad spectrum of those who may or may not step foot in a church, synagogue, mosque or what have you. This also opens up a whole can of worms when it comes to tagging Perry as over-religious – watch the Debate questions yet to come: Guaranteed for Perry: “What would Jesus do?”

That aside perhaps the most telling statistic in this poll: the large number who previously had no preference (or other) in May: 31% has dropped to 19% in August – which is still a considerable portion of those that would pull the lever for anyone who is on the ticket. (Moderate to Conservative Democrats were not included in this poll – and it is not without some curiosity as to how these numbers would have stacked up in a broad based demographic.

To sum it up, Obama is on Vacation on an island targeted by a large hurricane, he left Washington ahead of a large and rare earthquake, Rick Perry, perhaps the most conservative of the “Tea Party” and GOP contenders both socially and fiscally, is leading the pack of Obama’s replacements (although not a foregone conclusion, the Presidents Poll numbers make his reelection highly improbable at this point), and, of course, the elephant not in the room: Palin, who looks almost moderate in comparison, has yet to make a firm commitment of any sort. Notes: Palin did endorse Perry for his reelection to the Texas Governorship. Lastly, Republican’s, Republican Leaning Independents and possibly Moderate Democrats who were not polled, would prefer any of the Republicans to the current office holder, giving new meaning to “Generic Republican bests Obama Polls” (see Rasmussen where anyone of the above mentioned would best Obama by 5 points in a general election (if it were held this week).

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

President Obama – Polls Continue to Slide Into Carter Terrorist, The GOP Options, Polling on Perry, Palin, Romney – Parsing the Polls

The battle for 2012 polling favors Republican (unnamed) image Media.eyeblast

Looking at a wide range of polls at the beginning of the week, Rasmussen Polling (Conservative Trend), has the Generic (unnamed) Republican Candidate besting Obama by a 5 Point Lead, with seven percent of those polls undecided. In the Republican Field Sarah Palin, who is not a confirmed candidate (as speculation is rampant that she will enter), polls below Obama by 50% to 33%, with 15% preferring some other candidate and 2% undecided. At first glance, those are dismal numbers, however, Palin has an announcement that will end the speculation sometime in September (possibly), at that point, polling Sarah Palin will matter, at this point, it is basically gives the appearance that Obama can best someone with a GOP “brand”.

However, to lend some form of sanity to the polling process employed by Rasmussen, his latest poll shows Congressman Ron Paul, perennial straw poll winner, in a statistical tie with Obama. This begs the question: How did Rasmussen find all those random Ron Paul Supporters? Alternately, How bad is the state of the nation when Paul, a perennial Congressman from the State of Texas, a Libertarian leaning Republican who would close borders, and let the world implode, while focusing only on the Fed, ties the field?

Gallup Polling shows Obama’s daily approval at 38%, and Gallup would be considered a “Conservative Pollster”, (Conservative in this instance meaning cautious), this screams Carter territory with no chance for Reelection. Gallup on the GOP Field in General includes both those announced and unannounced, with Texas Governor, Rick Perry, who declared last week, rising in name Recognition. Of the top tier in name recognition: Palin leads, followed by Giuliani, Romney, Gingrich, Bachman, Ron Paul, Perry, Santorum, Cain and at the bottom of the pack Huntsman. Of those in this poll, the top two most recognized, have not yet declared. In reality, this is a meteoric rise for the Texas Governor, considering a week has passed since the buzz began.

In viewing the entire field on Gallup’s Main 2012 page, which includes all candidates (and not yet announced) in a file that can be exported, one finds that Palin’s approval stands (percentages), strongly favorable, 24%, favorable, 45%, unfavorable: 18% and strongly unfavorable 10%, she comes in third overall, behind declared candidate Herman Cain, who holds first in this poll, and Rick Perry, again in his first week out. What this indicates, is more than who is raising or falling in the ranks, but what type of candidate impresses GOP, a non-political class candidate, or more to the point “Tea Party” candidate.

Public Policy Polling (unapologetic, Democrat Leaning Pollster), latest National Poll, shows Mitt Romney statistically tied with Barack Obama, followed by Rick Perry (down 6 points from the President), Michelle Bachmann, (down by 9 points), and Cain (down by 10 points, but up from the previous week). Again, Palin in put into the mix, polling at 40% to Obama’s 53%, that said, the pollster indicates those numbers are up from 53 to 37% (Obama Palin respectively) in their last national poll. .

What this tells us is that three different pollsters, with differing ideological (or non in the case of Gallup) bents, all showing Palin in the field, along with Giuliani, and for unannounced Candidates, they poll well (despite what the pundits may spin). Name Recognition and favorability combined in all polls, continues to trend towards those candidates most recognized as Tea Party, which includes Palin, Cain and Perry. In other words, they are sick and tired of the Political Class.

The last words on Palin comes from Fox contributor and pollster Dick Morris and American Spectator’s Robert Stacy McCain, who’s headline “Still Waiting for Sarah”, is a must read. This is a first-hand account of events in Iowa by a journalist who apparently went more than the extra mile to try and ferret out the scoop on Sarah is an interesting take on the “will she or won’t she” media frenzy surrounding Palin.

Dick Morris TV Lunch Alert, is a mix of barbs at Palin (and women in general), with a special note to Palin saying, stay out of the race, on the one hand, as she is “damaged goods” due to intense media scrutiny, (seriously, he said that), and secondly, that it would be interesting if she did enter the race so there would be a “girls primary”. Seriously he said that as well. One cannot tell if Morris has a horse in this race or not, but Morris on reading tea leaves (or polls) has a record that is somewhat mixed.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Sarah Palin – Will She? Won’t She? The Ghost of Reagan Says Yes

Palin keeps the pundits and media guessing - it is her decision in her own time, or in Reagan's Timeline - image republican redefined

Sarah Palin’s PAC ”Set the Record Straight” regarding Karl Rove’s comments that he believed Palin would enter the 2012 GOP race, given a Video Release that appeared Presidential and a planned trip to Iowa on September 3rd. The trip to a tea party event, which is free to attend, has been moved to accommodate larger crowds. Real Clear Politics posted a radio ad that the Tea Party will be releasing this week in Iowa for the event (Read listen to commercial clip here. The advertisement includes clips from Palin’s speech, and speaks to the overall ideology of the Tea Party Movement, however, does not indicate an announcement, rather a “call to action” by the Tea Party and Americans in general to get involved.

Over on CNN blog, the notion that Rove would be the last to know if Palin would be announced is given as reason she is not running This article was also linked with Kudos on Palin’s PAC website, giving the impression that her announcement might include a Nay not a Yea, as Rove predicted.

That said, no one knows when Palin will announce, however, one has to believe that a decision has been made, whether or not she will run, the question is: Where would this announcement take place and when? Is September too late? History tells us no, as Ronald Reagan entered late in the fall and went on to win the nomination and the Presidency.

Around the Conservative blogosphere:

Red State reports that Palin is not running, taking an exchange from her Iowa State Fair impromptu press conference – noting that she had to make a decision, which would allow her supporters who to support in a timely fashion as evidence that she is not running. Red State, one should note, held the conference where Rick Perry announced his candidacy – let the games begin.

Town Hall reports under Finance that Palin’s degree trumps Harvard’s, an understatement, but a small sliver of “endorsement” of Palin’s fiscal conservative credentials.

Perhaps most important, over the last two days, John McCain, 2008 GOP Nominee who brought Palin into the game, spoke on national talk shows and noted she would be a “formidable opponent”, (CBS News) – and Fox’s News Greta Van Suskeren, asked McCain the same on last night’s broadcast – he stopped short of endorsing her.

That said here’s a bit more that might give rise to the speculation for a run:

A Palin based group ison the ground with funds in New Hampshire, where the State GOP said there is no activity on the ground – however, candidates skip primaries strategically, therefore, one can anticipate that if Palin does enter the race, her focus may not be the northeast (immediately).

Is it September, or is it October?

Palin will be joining Glenn Beck on a “Defending the Republic” tour. Beck’s Tour’s highlight a variety of political figures, specifically Tea Party or independent, but the date and place of the Tour is interesting in and of itself.
St. Charles (St. Louis) MO – the date: October 7th at the Family Arena October and the Heartland? (Although Glenn Beck? Really?)

Or Possibly November?

Nov. 13, 1979
Reagan announces his candidacy for president. After winning the party's nomination, he chooses George Bush as his running mate. The platform calls for "a new consensus with all those across the land who share a community of values embodied in these words: family, work, neighborhood, peace, and freedom."

Nov. 4, 1980
Reagan is elected president in a landslide victory over incumbent Jimmy Carter.

Trying to second guess Sarah Palin may be a novel way to spend time, and the former Governor of Alaska certainly keeps the press and the rest of us guessing, however, considering the many comparisons made between Palin and Reagan, and knowing that Palin has a keen sense of history and its place in the grand scheme of American life and politics, one can look to Iowa, possibly, but one can also look further into October.

The rush of the pundits and the political establishment is all about the money, and Palin, although she will need those donors has a significant grass roots campaign already in place, supporters who would invest millions to see her vindicated, and a strong sense of what is right for her and for her nation. The emphasis is on the nation. Watching Palin over the past few years, one can only come to one conclusion: although she insists and rightly so that her family comes first, there is no doubt that she puts the Nation in the forefront, and since the state of the United States directly impacts her family, it would be her political and moral duty to step up to the plate in a leadership role. As President? That remains to be seen, and the time and place of any announcements will be Palin’s and Palin's alone. This is why there is such brouhaha over Rove’s presumptuous statements – that and the fact that it is Karl Rove.

Palin, ever the political animal, (and that is a grand complement) may hold a conference on September 4th, to announce just to stymie Rove – but one envisions Palin giving herself as a servant to the American People to the American People, regardless of any predictions Rove might make, and again, in her own time. She has a great reference to timing in Reagan, of which she is well aware.

From a Conservative Feminist Point of view, the sooner would be better, and the call “Run Sarah Run”, resounds, regardless of the establishment GOP, Sunday Talk Shows, and blogs such as this, the truth is: Palin appears to be the leader that has qualities and background in governing that would serve the American People well, being not too far to the right, but center – serving no politician and or political gain, but the public and the nation she truly and obviously loves – the question then becomes, does she have a choice?

Monday, August 22, 2011

Maxine Waters (D-CA-35) Up for Re-Election in 2012 – Tells Fan Club – “Tea Party Can Go To Hell” – Tea Party Grows in Stature

Maxine, a career politician, will be up for re-election for a 12th term in the U.S. Congress in 2012, and she’s hot on the campaign trail. In a “town-hall” style meeting in her district, Waters gave a rousing speech before a group that the Daily Caller referred to as: “attendees sporting purple SEIU T-shirts.” (See video from Daily Caller)

Maxine and her peer Charles Rangel (NY15) both faced ethics charges in Augsut of 2010.

Water’s remarks most likely stem from comments made by Col. Allen West, a Republican representing

"You have this 21st century plantation that has been out there where the Democrat party has forever taken the black vote for granted. And you have established certain black leaders who are nothing more than overseers over the plantation. And now the people on that plantation are upset because they’ve been disregarded, disrespected, and their concerns are not cared about," Rep. Allen West (R-FL) said on FOX News. “
. (Real Clear Politics with video)

Water’s appears to have taken offense, however, when one looks at the statistics, Water’s has a point, African American’s as a U.S. tracked “Class”, appear to have higher rates of unemployment. It is not so much that African American’s are on West’s virtual plantation, other “classes”, women, Catholics, union employees (11% of the U.S. Workforce), and college students, are considered Democrat by virtue of “perceived ownership” by the DNC. West was merely pointing this “ownership” in language that was clear and to the point. (Much like Comedian Bill Cosby has been known to do, and has been largely criticized, again by the professional west, for his conservative leaning comments.

The Tea Party appears to have replaced the “Red Menace” (also known as Republicans) as the “political party of choice” when it comes to DNC rhetoric as of late. This phenomenon clearly gives the Tea Party equal status in the eyes of a public, increasingly wary off “politics as usual” from the two main Political Parties’ in the U.S. and it is growing.
Maxine, and others of her “ilk” (i.e. Progressive Democrats), most likely do not have time to watch pollsters – a recent NBC Wall Street Journal (Talk about strange bedfellows), poll where 21% of the Public approve of the job Congress is doing, 33% either highly or somewhat approve of the Democrat Party, with the Republican Party faring less well at 24% (combined), and the Tea Party being the main competition at 30% (combined). (Data from August 2011). Apparently, Maxine does not approve of the Peoples Movement to bring fiscal sanity to the nation. The shot she made at the Tea Party was most likely a generalization and directed to Alan West, who was elected to Congress in 2010, as part of the Tea Party movement.

The beauty of this whole schematic, is that Waters, and other Progressives, will have a difficult time using the much overused “race card” with West for obvious reasons. What is most hypocritical of Maxine is that these same sentiments have been echoed in past elections by other professional leftist,
who looked to the Republican Party to provide leadership that was lacking in the DN and inclusion lacking in the DNC (Google News Archives, the Vindicator)

The problem for both major parties, from a moderate (independent) point of view, is that ownership of certain “classes” (this is derived from the Progressive school of thought, there are elites, and then there are “classes” underneath them), belong to certain parties ideologically and this “myth” is perpetuated by the media. The last time anyone checked, no political party “owned” any specific group, the notion of categorizing the American Citizen as a specific “ethnic, racial, or gender based “minority", is ludicrous, simply to the fact that all American’s have equal treatment under the Constitution as well as oversight by several government agencies, tonsure that every “class be treated” equally.
Are there racists, sexists, bigots, and the like still residing in the U.S. – of course, and that will always be the case, ignorance, as they say, is bills. However, how much different is the “bigotry” of individuals like Maxine, when painting the Tea Party (specifically Col West.) with such a broad brush? There simply is no difference.
The Tea Party is comprised of individuals from all political affiliations who are mainly fiscal conservatives, at first, loosely organized into groups, now having gained power within a short span of less than two years, placing sixty members in Congress. Should they organize by precinct/ward, state and become fully chartered as a national party, it would come as no surprise, if they eclipsed enrollment in both national political parties. That’s at least a year away, however, it is possible that this strictly grassroots, fiscal conservative, constitutional “people’s party” will do just that.

Which is why those on the Left are fearful, and those on the right, embracing the Tea Party in instances where elections are at stake, and they share a similar ideology. (Note: Tea Party candidates, as well as Libertarians, tend to run as a Major Party candidate, due to numbers, not unlike Green Party, or Progressive Socialist running as Democrats, due to shared ideology and numbers – it is the lack of foundation to those who hold ideals from smaller parties, that allows them to pair with a political party that is closer in ideology than another.) Should the American Public have to choose between three parties, or even four, would not our elections become more diverse, and would not the outcome be more true to the nature of our Constitution?

One fact that cannot be disputed: The Tea Party had nothing to do with the Debt Ceiling Fiasco. Democrats controlled Congress for two years prior to Obama being elected President, and for two years with Obama in control of the White House, for those four years, the Democrats failed to pass a balanced budget, reduce spending, or attempt to get deficits under control. The Tea Party was merely stating the obvious. Apparently the general public concurs.

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Sarah Palin 2012 – See you In September – From Pundits to the Press Belief that “She’s In” – What Took Them So Long?

Palin, Media in Frenzy, Iowa 2011 image Republican Redefined

Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska, 2008 GOP VP Nominee, and 2010 Congressional Makeover Artist, has indicated for the past twelve months or more, that she was considering a run for the White House in 2012. The Press, meanwhile, was focused on Palin’s daughter Bristol, and her appearance on “Dancing With the Stars, or any other opportunity to slam Palin either directly or through her family. Fox News Pundit, Karl Rove, was especially critical of Palin during this period, making several Fox New appearances, and letting Palin know just what this “old boy, from the old school, Washington Insider” though of her. Palin’s career, highlighted in the documentary “The Undefeated”, gives one the understanding that she is used to being maligned: by the Republican Party by the Press and by the Democrats (the later, only after she accepted the VP Nomination in 2008).
Over the last week, Palin, who had been in Ames IA during the Straw Poll, attending the State Fair, released the video below entitled “Iowa Passion”. Review the video and understand that this is the first shot heard round the Lower 48.

Apparently, Karl Rove, put down his chalkboard and watched the video (of course, there were other indicators, but for the sake of brevity, "Rove now believes that Palin will run for President."

Meanwhile, the media has ramped up watching every move she makes - this time to find a sign and “get the scoop” on her “announcement” – it’s a competitive industry. Knowing how much the press disdains Palin (see her surrounded in video above), it is becoming obvious, as the woes of our nation deepen, and as some of them have privately watched “The Undefeated”, the understanding of her political acumen, and experience, stamina and sheer will to take on the task – she may be the nation’s only hope, makes coverage critical.

From Politico: “Palin's Kansas City mystery tour”

“Sarah Palin apparently made a quick and, for her, unusually headline- and attention-free dash last week into Kansas City last home of the National World War I Museum.” (Politico)

First, the apparently “headline and attention free dash”, meant that Palin managed to evade the very media who is more interested in covering her, than she is being covered. (See Palin at Iowa State Fair, telling media to go follow someone else.) Secondly, the piece proves that any move Palin does make is a) of interest and b) must mean something!!

Yes, she may have wanted a moment of privacy or she’s gearing up her fundraising, or she’s being courted by an incumbent who may have to been as fiscally conservative as their constituents would prefer, and is in need of a little help from Sarah.

By way of example, The Hill Blog is now reporting that Palin’s power has reached the Senate, where Orin Hatch, is now trying to ingratiate himself with Palin in order to ensure his spot in the General Election. He’s facing a primary opponent, and without Palin’s support, may not make it onto the ballot.

She's a Powerful and Fair, Force to Be Reckoned With

She’s known to be outspoken, popular with a large percentage of the populace (not the Standard GOP, nor the White House, or Progressives, or, previously 100% of the media), but it is growing increasingly clear that the nation needs someone who has the ability to right wrongs, regardless of which Major Party Player, or special interest Group is Involved, will stand up for the people, has Tea Party Principals, and has been more thoroughly vetted than any other politician, living or dead (including all members of her family.)
With Sarah Palin, the nation knows there would be a champion of the people, not a champion of a political party. Closing: The Road to The White House, 2012, may be starting “late” in some pundits opinions, however, the fact that several recent two term Presidents did not announce until much later than their pre-primary opponents – Palin is: Tested, Vetted, Proven to Lead, Independent and Hopeful for the Future of the United States of America.

Finally, subscribe to Google News Alerts (Chose Comprehensive All Sources As they Occur), for all current GOP candidates, include Sarah Palin, note the discrepancy: 10 to1 over Romney and Perry, increase in the past week. Any Questions?

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