Congressional District Special Election – The Deep Divisions in the Democrat Ranks Will affect races in November. Analysis

The special election to replace Rep. Neal Ambercrombiehas Republican Charles Djou poised for victory in a heavily Democrat District. As Democrats have an historical advantage in Special Elections (some by running as Republicans – see the Pennsylvania 12th and of import, the New York 23rd, where Gillibrand won the seat by marching straight to the right), the Hawaii 1st, which is far from a swing district, being heavily weighted by a Democrat electorate, is unusual as the Republican is outpacing two Democrats vying for the seat. The two Democrats, Ed Case who is characterized as a moderate, and Colleen Hanabusa, who is a pro-union Progressive, have been fighting it out amongst themselves leading some pundits to believe this scenario gave Djou the advantage.

According to the Washington Post, the DSCC suspended advertising earlier in the month, thereby admitting defeat before a single mail-in vote was cast. The last ballots must be mailed and delivered by 6:00 pm Sunday ; half of the ballots mailed out have been returned, and results should be announced Sunday night.

Although recent losses in Senate and Gubernatorial Campaigns in Massachustts (Scott Brown), New Jersey (Chris Christie), Pennsylvania (Specter will not be returning) and Virginia (Bob McDonnell) indicate that, just perhaps, the general public has had, in a word, enough of Democrat Policies. The special elections won by Democrats in the California 10th, the New York 23rd and the most recent in the PA 12th, are more indicative of local politics, and special circumstances that led to the Conservative in the race, being defeated. The 10th District, alone, was rather ho-hum and a straight Democrat victory in a district that was more heavily weighted Democrat than any others. In New York, the Republican was more in line with the Democrat, and the Conservative Party Candidate, lost by a small margin, after the Republican endorsed the Democrat running for the seat. In Pennsylvania, the Democrat, again, ran as a Republican, Crist placed himself as far from Washington as he could – otherwise, the 12th, not the Hawaii 1st would have been the first to go to a Republican.

What appears to be missed by most analysts is the fact that there is a schism in the Democrat Party that is handing the seat to Djou. The differences between what can be characterized as a Moderate Democrat and the Progressive (i.e. socialist) Democrats has become clear in this particular race, and one can be sure, in every congressional race going forward. Moderate Democrats in 2008 were behind the candidacy of Hillary Clinton, those are the blue collar, working class Democrats, who were not buying the “Hope and Change of the Progressive candidate Obama. The SEIU, which has become a driving force within the Progressives, and has a clear socialist, agenda and appears to take its marching orders from Washington and Chicago. As Progressive (or those identifying themselves as such) are a small but vocal minority, the rank and file Democrats (or moderates), will, in certain cases, be battling each other in the primaries leading up to the November election. The problem arises that the public perception ties the two divergent factors of the Democrat Party together – the outcome, moderates are voting Republican or “Tea Party”, joined by a good percentage of those who indicate no party affiliation.

This scenario is crossing lines, where more moderate Republicans in Conservative districts are also in danger of losing seats (Recent upset in Kentucky primary, by way of example). With every special election, the pundits with the DNC and RNC both claim mandates, noting either that the Democrats are safe, and that the Republicans’ will sweep (later more historically probable), however, the bigger story is the schism with the Democrat Party. This will have a direct impact on the Congressional, and Gubernatorial races taking place in November, and as of now, key Democrats are in danger of losing their congressional seats, including Harry Reid, and, yes, Nancy Pelosi.

Those pesky conservative “Tea Party” people (made up of conservative, independents and yes, moderate Democrats) are everywhere and the organization has grown in leaps and bounds within the last few months. They will have an enormous impact on who goes to Washington in November.
As for Hawaii, the “Tea Party” resides in Maui (of all places), As well as Honolulu, Kauai, Kona, Ewa Beach and Wahiaw . Therefore, what is taking place is not a mandate for any party, rather a mandate against the factions within the Democrat Party. Those Tea Party acticits, regardless of party, will support the candidates who are Constitutionalist (Tea Party or no) - one that is most in line with their philosophy – which is most instances, but not all, is the Republican.

With a day left until the results are posted for the Hawaii 1st, one can listen to excuses by the Democrats about an “isolated” incidence of a rift between two candidates, but make no mistake, the implications go far beyond a mandate for the Republicans.

CT – Democrat Senate Candidate, Richard Blumenthal – More Lies Surface, Congressional Democrats Support At Any Cost – All Up for Re-election in 2010

Blumenthal - Pathalogical Defense Possible? Photo moonbattery.com

As Richard Blumenthal’s outright lies regarding his service in Viet Nam begin to pile up, Connecticut Congressional Representatives ramped up support, casting blame on his Republican opponent, Linda McMahon, noting a political attack. However, the reality of playing partisan, in the face of increasing evidence of instances in which Blumenthal has stated he served in Viet Nam, when he did not, may end up tainting those who are up for reelection, including Democratic Reps. Jim Himes, John Larson, Chris Murphy, Rosa DeLauro and Joe Courtney who also voted in for Health Care Reform.

The plan, apparently, is to hold onto Chris Dodd’s Senate Seat (otherwise known as the Seat belonging to the citizens of the State of Connecticut), so standing by Blumenthal is apparently the thing to do when faced with the possibility of a Republican taking a Senate Seat, which may, in the long-run cost the Party of Tax and Spend, its majority and put a halt to the current deficit party now going on in Washington.
The Hartford Courant www.courant.com">) has a parcel of articles, supporting the fact that Blumenthal appears to be a serial liar, right down to a report that surfaced where he had claimed to be the Captain of the Harvard Swim Team, despite his inability to swim.

Apparently, when the public is not thrilled with the party in power, those who are associated either pretend to be Republicans (see race in the PA 12th where Democrat Mark Critz won handily by supporting core Republican principals and only skipping off to fundraisers with Nancy Pelosi, when the Pennsylvania Press was asleep.) or they lie, about anything, and the end result has seen Democrats in office for years, many of whom should have faced criminal charges (See Charles Rangel NY).

Perhaps it is not so much anti-incumbent fever that has spread nationwide, rather disgust for those who mislead the American public and those who support them in partisan fashion so intense, it defies explanation. One has to, in the final analysis, understand that those we send to Washington to do our bidding, are human, after all, and subject to the temptations of life in the big city, that said, when an entire party supports corruption in every corner and for decades, the rest of the nation begins to look a lot like Beacon Hill and Chicago. It is what has happened, and that is regardless of party, to those incumbents who feel it is expedient to go along with Washington, while ignoring the wishes of their constituents, to lie about mundane things such as swim teams, or more egregiously, to lie about service to the nation, tax returns, prostitution rings run out of one’s own home, and expect to stay in office for decades, or as the past has proven kind to liars, crooks and thieves, run a Senate campaign based on fallacy – When will the voting public finally have enough? 2010 and 2012 will prove to be the litmus test for those who feel they can fool the people all of the time.

Therefore, those Connecticut Congressmen who have voiced their support for Blumenthal, have handed ammunition to Mark Zydanowicz, running against, Larson, Matthew Moulton Daly running against Courtney in the 2nd, Dan Debicella, and multiple challengers running against Himes, and Mark Daniel Greesnsburg running against Murphy in the 5th. A review of the last quarter filings with the FEC, shows the Republicans gained financial traction, prior to their support of Blumenthal. One would suspect it will be a long summer for those who both voted for health care reform, and supported an extremely flawed candidate.

Border Wars – Arizona Official Threatens To Cut Los Angeles Utilities over City Boycott - The Road to Anarchy

The Arizona Mexican Border - westcom.org

AnNCB Los Angeles article reports that an Arizona utility commissioner has threatened to shut off 25% of the cities power over their boycott of Arizona. Arizona’s new immigration law (which mirrors the Federal Laws) has the Los Angeles City Council up in arms – they cite the law as possibly discriminatory, although that City and the State of California are subject to the same laws via Federal statutes which are simply not enforced. With Arizona in harm’s way, due to increased violent crime directly linked to the open border and refusal of the Federal government to do its job and enforce and protect national borders, Los Angles and other cities who have issued similar “mandates” to employees to boycott Arizona are, in a word, ridiculous. It would make far more sense, for those who would see risk, to boycott Mexico, as it has erupted in uncontrollable violence, due to drug lords, gangs and random acts of violence which places United States tourists at grave risk. In addition, as Arizona and one suspects other border states, have had this anarchy spill over its borders, every State has the right to protect its citizens, specifically if the politically motivated Federal government refuses to do so.

Desperate entreaties by both Arizona Senators John McCain and Jon Kyle, have gone unheeded by the Administration and Homeland Security Head, Janet Napolitano, has placed a bigger emphasis on troops being sent to control the oil spill in the gulf, as that situation, gone untended for weeks, has taken priority. Calderon, speaking from the White House, gave the usual platitudes regarding Mexico’s partnership to stem the crime along the border, which, to date, has only worsened. The U.S. sends Mexico millions of dollars in aid each year to help with law enforcement; however, it appears not to have helped in the least.

One has to hand it to McCain – in defense of Arizona and in conversation with Napolitano:

"If you'll indulge me, we think we have another crisis on the border," Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., told Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano at a hearing this week. "I want to know about whether you're going to send the Guard to the border or not."
When she tried to explain other DHS improvements along the border, McCain cut her off.
"People's homes are being violated, and their families can't take kids to the bus stop," the senator fumed. "And you are very familiar with the issue, because you yourself asked for the Guard to go to the border back in 2006."

One also has to hand it to that Arizona Utility Commissioner, who has stood up to the insanity of those that live in isolation of progressive ideology, (and gated communities). One gets the impression, were those city councilors from Boston to LA living on the Arizona border, they’d be singing a different tune. One can hazard to guess that many in that state, fed up with the Federal Government and like minded municipalities, would help that commission flip the switch and send a message to LA.

In all fairness to the present administration, the preceding administrations did nothing but throw money at Mexico in an effort to help them police the border, while doing nothing to actually enforce the current laws and end the nonsense. One must understand there is such a thing as a “Green Card” and other methods to which law-abiding immigrants can get over the border, through a checkpoint. There simply is no excuse, and, as the crisis is coming to a head, it is time to take action and protect those on both sides of the border. With an enforcement of border laws by the Federal government, the human trafficking would be greatly diminished, gangs and drugs as well, giving a bit of peace to all those who are at risk from illegally imported criminal activity.

The fact that Mexico and the United States are separate countries appears to be lost on progressives, and those radicals who believe, wrongly, that certain sections of the U.S. are Mexican territory. There was a war, we won, they lost, case closed. As to the millions here, illegally, regardless of national origin (and that includes Europeans) should be given an opportunity to come forward and apply for a green card, to allow them to work here in the U.S. – or they can claim political asylum, giving up their Mexican, Irish, or what-have-you citizenship. As a fist generation American, with parents that did just that, and legally, it is beyond comprehension how, decade after decade, the disregard to this great nation is apparent, from both sides of the border. Arizona is an example of what is right about this country, and constitutionally, they have taken steps to protect themselves. While Senators McCain and Kyl literally spit into the wind trying to reason with Napolitano, a utility commissioner in Arizona gets it right. Should nothing be done, and the nonsense continue, the potential for real violence exists, by the citizens of the United States, taking measures to protect life and property, in those states most effected by illegal immigrants. It would be far better for this Administration or more likely the next, to lock down, once and for all, all borders, enforce existing laws, before chaos truly erupts. It is a lack of doing nothing, which is fostering any so called “racial” tensions, and that is the biggest crime having been committed.

PA-12th Congressional – Democrat Mark Critz runs to the Right to Defeat Republican Tim Burns in Murtha Seat Special Election – Rematch in November.

Mark Critz Website Issues Page - Running on Conservative Values

The PittsburghTribune headlined “Voters Promote Murtha’s Aide”, referring to Democrat Mark Critz who, with 70% of the vote tallied, had a 53% to 45% lead. The pundits on the right and left referred to this race as a “must –win” for both major parties, however, on the face of it, both candidates ran on conservative values. It would appear that, in this particular district, which has a history of “swinging” from one party to the other, voters had a choice between two candidates that were pro-life, pro-gun, anti-health care reform and anti-cap and trade. Although Burns was faced with a 2-1 deficit in voter registration, the fact that Critz, who was a former Murtha aide, campaigned on the identical side of the issues is key, additionally neither candidate appeared to be weak, and therefore, low voter turnout, or any other factor that can be touted, did not make a difference. How Critz performs in the short period between now and November will be telling, as the two will face each other again in November – the special election doubled as a primary.


Critz campaign Website, against Cap and Trade


Critz, who was supported by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is, for all intents and purposes, a “blue dog” democrat. Screenshots below show his campaign website and stance on the issues. In other national spotlighted special elections, most notably the Massachusetts special election to fill a vacant Senate seat, Scott Brown ran against an openly Progressive Democrat, Martha Coakley, who was supported and visited by Barack Obama. The night before the election, Burns joked on Fox News that he hoped Obama would visit Critz, as it would put him (Burns) over the top. He may have been right on that score.

Should Critz go to Washington and vote party line, come November, and again in 2012, he will be faced with the difficulty of defending his original issues. That said, it is entirely possible that Critz is sincere in his stance as a Conservative Democrat – and will follow the will of his constituents rather than the Beltway and the administration – he is in a similar position to Michigan Democrat Bart Stupak, who resigned after constituent backlash, once he cast a yes vote for health care reform, understanding that his chances for reelection were greatly diminished. Therefore, it will be job performance that will sway the voters of the Pennsylvania 12th in the long-run.

Charlie Baker, Republican Candidate for Govenor, Makes Stop in Western Mass. Local News Coverage Whines About Deval Patrick.

Charlie Baker in Springfield Yesterday - photo Springfield Republican
Yesterday, Republican candidate for Governor, Charlie Baker, kicked off his statewide “Had Enough?” campaign tour, with a stops in Framingham and Chicopee. The tour highlights Bakers plans to reduce spending on Beacon Hill, and putting a halt to the corruption rampant in Massachusetts government.

Local news coverage on the stop resulted in one article by the Springfield Republican Headlined ”Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick urges opponent Charlie Baker to stop Republican Governors Association ads” . In the article, Patrick, who was aided by negative attack ads in 2006, complains that Baker should stop the ads run by the Republican Governors Association which depict both Patrick and Democrat turned Independent third candidate, Tim Cahill in a truthful, but less than flattering light. Patrick held a press conference yesterday in Boston, to coincide with Bakers camping tour. The Republican, the only daily paper in the Springfield/Chicopee/Holyoke area, decided to go with the Patrick press conference as “news”.

In paragraph six of the article, the fact that Baker made a stop in Western Massachusetts is brought into play:

During a campaign stop in Western Massachusetts, Baker, former chief executive of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Inc., said that candidates are barred by federal election law from coordinating with independent advocacy groups like the Republican Governors Association.

“I can only control my own message,” Baker said following a rally at The Munich Haus in Chicopee. “I’d rather that all of these independent groups stay out of Massachusetts.”

Baker noted that independent advocacy groups ran ads on Patrick’s behalf during the 2006 election.

The only other indication that Baker was present in Western Mass is the AP photo that accompanies the article. It is precisely this type of reporting that has seen daily newspaper subscriptions drop 9% over last year. According to the Audit Bureau of Circulation, the Springfield Republican has an average of 67,181 subscribers. The current population of Chicopee is 54,941, Springfield,150,640 and Holyoke, 39,947 (based on 2008 estimates) or a total of 245,000.

It is one thing to preach to the choir, but when the choir has left the church, the smart move would be to balance the reporting, one story about Baker’s visit and one about Duval Patrick’s press conference about Baker. Over at the three leading television stations (websites), one AP article can be found at Channel 40 news, under Global news, headlined: “Even in liberal-leaning Mass., GOP eyes US House”, otherwise, no mention of Baker’s visit to the neighborhood.

Regardless to which political party one subscribes, a visit by a major candidate is news - the fact that this receives no mention other than to prop up the sitting Governor, who’s current approval, according to the latest Rasmussen survey shows Patrick with 11% viewing the Governor very favorably with 26% viewing him very unfavorably. The balance of respondents are somewhere in the middle. In this particular poll, Patrick’s performance has increased to 48% approval with 12% strongly approving, again the balance being somewhat. It is the very low favorable versus the unfavorable that paint the picture that larger dailies like the Globe and the Republican fail to see (or refuse to see).

Ned Bristol, of the Attleboro Sun Chronicle, on the other hand “Get’s it” – Worth reading his editorial ”Ross win good for Republicans, Mass.”. The article outlines the state of Massachusetts politics today and is right on the money.

As Charlie Baker goes from city to town to district delivering his message, the fact that the media continues to ignore him (not unlike they initially ignored one Scott Brown), will do little to effect the outcome. The only effect it appears to have is driving subscribers to alternative news sources.

Penn. 12th District Special Election Update – Latest Polling Burns Leads Critz 48-47 – only 35% of Dems Excited about the Race - Analysis

Businessman Tim Burns leads Democrat Critz in latest poll - image Tim Burns for Congress

Public Policy Polling released the latest poll on the race to fill the PA 12th Congressional Seat yesterday. The vote will take place on Tuesday, and according to this poll, will come down to the wire. Public Policy Polling is one of the more accurate pollsters, and specifically of more import as the organization is noted to “lean left” (although most likely not as left as say the Daily Kos, or The Boston Globe (see poll released one week before Browns election giving his opponent Coakley a 15 point lead), lending a bit more credence to those polls that are patently biased. The marginals are located here: showing Burns with a 1 point lead over Critz with 6% either refusing to answer or not decided.

Only 35% of the respondents approve of Obama’s job performance (always thrown into polls for good measure), but the kicker: favorables for Burns are at 44% while Critz has a favorable of 39%, additionally, only 29% of respondents approve of the job the Democrats are doing in Congress, statistically equal to the response for the Republican Congressional job performance. The political ideology of the poll: Democrats 55%, Republican’s 30%, Independents 10%, which is roughly in line with the makeup of the district. By party, Burns takes 22% of the Democrat vote, and leads Critz 52 to 31% with Independent voters. Finally, Republicans and Independents lead Democrats in the “excitement factor” of the race, with 52% of Republican’s eager to go to the polls compared to 35% of the Democrats polled.

The margin of error is plus-minus 3.4% with 831 likely voters participating over the weekend (May 15th & May 16th). Public Policy Polling notes that, due to the fact that both Major Political Parties are given low grades by the respondents, and finishes with the fact that neither party would be able to claim a “mandate” should the race finish by 1 point. Although one has to wait until the dust settles, it would appear that Burns overall favorability and the lack of enthusiasm by those Democrats polled, the 9% that are undecided (or flatly refused to answer), are the key to this particular poll – should they break for Burns (given the following factors: Pelosi and the Congress low popularity in the district, the low popularity of the Health Care Program and the lead in excitement among Republican’s and Independents, one can see this swing plus 4 points towards Burns in a heartbeat. It’s the enthusiasm of the Republican and Independent voters who lean Republican and the disaffection of the Democrat voters that will carry Burns to the finish on Tuesday. The real possibility exists that a split in the 3.4% margin of error can be added to Burns 1%, giving him an outright victory of 3 plus points, and as Browns race, (plus 5) was considered a mandate, any win over and above 3 points in a heavily Democrat district is a clear mandate for both Burns and the GOP.