Friday, September 26, 2014

The Most Interesting – Rand Paul – Dr. vs. GOP and DNC Machine – What this means for 2016

According to Dan Pfeiffer, the top communications adviser to President Obama, Rand Paul is the Republican he finds the most “interesting”. This is due to his outreach to demographics currently believed to be “owned” by Democrats, and his stance on issues that would attract them. However, Pfeiffer went on to suggest that Paul does not have the organization heft. (BuzzFeed)

Buzzfeed is a left of center (for the most part) blogger platform, social media company, so articles written are more in the vein of “the top 15 this or that”. The audience is younger, which is what is playing to Paul’s favor. As to organizational heft, that’s to be determined, it is early in the game.

Although the rank and file members of the establishment GOP in DC have their hearts set on a standard Republican, a Mitt Romney, a Jeb Bush or yes, even a Chris Christie, it is not without a bit of angst on the part of those who would like to see a real change, that they are pushing the aforementioned. The simple truth is not one of them could actually win the Presidency. Breaking it down, Romney is a lousy candidate, nice guy, but he has baggage. It was not so much that he could not have won in 2012 – in fact, Mickey Mouse could have won in 2012, if, and this is the stickler – the 20 million evangelicals would have voted for someone in a religion they believe to be a cult. Simple reasoning suggests that were Romney to run again, the same religious fervor attached to voting, would once again rear its ugly head, and the Democrats could run say,. Biden, and lo and behold, we’d have a Biden Presidency. Bush has the name problem, part of a dynasty and one which there has not been enough time for the blind hatred towards his brother to elapse. Additionally, there is an anti-dynasty push through all demographics, therefore, not acceptable. Chris Christie, no explanation necessary.

What does that leave? Younger, qualified candidate that can attract not only the religious right base, but the independents as well as Democrats (some, not all), which is why this is going to be an extremely interesting race in 2016. If one understands that the vitriol pouring out against anyone who is not one of the Washington three (Romney, Christie, Bush), in the press, is due to the fact that populism is not in their favor, therefore they smear. The problem with this tired tactic is that while they retain their Washington lifestyle, Rome burns. Therefore, the man to beat, in this sense, would be Paul given the fact that there is grudging admiration on the left, and sheer hatred from the “standard right”. Of course that same may apply to Rick Perry and Ted Cruz, and other’s not yet known. This will be a determining factor in the sway of the entire nation towards a more constitutionally grounded government. Sometimes one just wants to throw the whole lot of them in a room, and suggest perhaps, just perhaps, they should let the process go its own way, and let the people actually decide, rather than their fully lined pockets. The aforementioned goes to both sides of the aisle.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

3 Afghan Soldiers Grabbed by ICE at Canadian Border – Terror Seeking or Seeking Asylum?

The three Afghan Soldiers who skipped out on the Bay State National Guard we’re stopped at the Canadian border.(Boston Heralds) They were detained by the Canadian Border Patrol(VOA News), and are now in the custody of I.C.E. (Worcester Telegram).

What this appears to be, on the surface, sans any conspiracy theories, given the opportunity to see a bit of the countryside, these three went to one of the natural wonders of the world, Niagara Falls, where they failed to, or did not desire to be in hiding. This is suggested by the manner in which they were easily nabbed by the Canadians. (Rather than any U.S. agency, which might suggest a standard policy for anyone out of the ordinary stepping across our border, see: southern border.) They were then taken by Immigration and customs agents, which would allow them to beg for asylum. Frankly, given the difference between the nations involved, one might suggest that the Afghans saw paradise and wanted to stay. They took a chance is getting a little tourism in before beginning what only can be a ridiculously dangerous process.

Of course, then again, this theory could be wrong, however, given the option of returning to a war torn nation, with a lousy climate, little entertainment, or chance of surviving past the age of 10, and staying in the US where one might get free everything, the later would be more appealing. As a society with all of its faults the U.S. is still the destination for those escaping poverty and politics worldwide, a safe haven if you will, giving opportunity to anyone, regardless of who one is, or is not.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Rand in San Fran – the Buzz – the Audacity!

The “Wire” asks can Rand Paul’s Brand play in San Fran?” in an article suggesting that he is stepping into territory not normally claimed by any GOP candidate – therefore, it’s about money. The Washington Post suggests much the same thing, while intoning “Why Rand Paul is opening an office in Northern California – obviously the money and the libertarians that live there.

They may be partly right, given that no-one knows the real reasons behind what the man does, except for – Rand Paul, however, maybe, just maybe, he’s onto something. Yes, California is not one of the first states to vote in any primary in the general elections, and yes, they do have Silicon Valley which has both the cash and liberty minded folk. However, it may also be true that one might go where no-one goes, simply to cash in on more fans, to find common ground and dialog with those thought to be totally closed minded and unable to communicate across an aisle. He is building bridges rather than putting up fences and regardless of the level of successes in this “blue” state, at least he is trying.

How many voters in state not New Hampshire or Iowa or South Carolina ever see an actual live candidate or potential candidate? – Very few. Heck, over here in Massachusetts, it’s like sighting a duck-billed moose. They fly over, drive through, but do not necessarily stop and actually talk to the people. One party believes it owns the Commonwealth, the other party, well; they wait until the tide turns and the Governor’s office is up for grabs (GOP and Democrats hold that office equally). That said the last candidate for a presidential primary that came to the Bay State was Hillary Clinton – good for her.

Hopefully Rand Paul inspires others to take a side road and visit those who live in entrenched areas, they may be surprised. Most “blue “states have one thing in common, an unequal amount of Democrats to Republicans and an overwhelming amount of “unenrolled, other party, independents” – those who will change minds or hearts. So, take the 3 electoral votes from New Hampshire and drive down the road, and possibly snag 9 or 10 from Massachusetts, it may make the difference. Logic dictates otherwise, and besides closed door, high ticket, campaign diner parties, the likelihood of any of the not yet and potential candidates of stopping in the Bay State to visit is admittedly slim. However, it is still admirable to treat California as if it were, say, any other state where the ordinary guy on the street gets to say hello to a possible future president.

Monday, September 22, 2014

2014 NH-MA Update – Brown Gains on Shaheen, Baker-Coakley Tied - New -Obamacare at Tax Time

The Boston Globe is reporting that Scott Brown’s gain’s against incumbent Democrat Shaheen is due to the “anti-Obamacare” sentiment in the Live Free or Die state (Boston Globe). Given the fact that USA Today announced those who did buy Obamacare with Subsidies will be seeing a penalty at tax time. The gist:

A significant benefit of the Affordable Care Act is the opportunity to receive money-saving tax credits up front to cut the overall cost of health insurance, but now hundreds of thousands of consumers could owe back some of that money next April.

Those affected took advance payments of the premium tax credit for health insurance. Some married couples could owe $600 or $1,500 or $2,500 or even more. It might feel like a raw deal for some who are already suffocating under the escalating costs of health insurance.
(USA Today)

Unless some sort of miracle occurs, and the trust is regained in politicians who have pushed this policy forward (all Democrats), then Brown should handily win in New Hampshire, and have plenty of company in other “safe” Democrat Senate and Congressional races nationwide. If that issue were one alone, it would not play as well, however, there is the immigration issue, the ISIS issue, and a host of other scandals that will have far reaching effects (see 2016).

The Massachusetts Governor's race also appears to be tied up: Rasmussen got involved and found the race at a dead heat with 1 month to go. (MASSLive) Martha is, perhaps, the worst second chance candidate the Mass Democrats could have fostered. Favoring raising taxes, scandal after scandal, and a very weary electorate should see Baker in the corner office. The only thing that makes this a “may” is the ability of the Dem boots on the ground to miraculously come up with 30,000 extra voters 11 hours before any given election (should the odds not be in their favor.) If Baker and the State GOP do not have poll watchers and attorneys present at most of the major cities, then it may still go Martha’s way. The Secretary of the Commonwealth has left the million plus dead and missing voters on the roles for just such an occasion. Incidentally, those same dead voters collect ebt cards . Local news stories, which do not appear to have much of an effect when the balloting is done. In order for Baker to best Coakley he needs to be 5 points up. When that happens, it’s a Baker Governorship.

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