So Long Harry and Thanks for All the Fish! The President’s Legacy – Will He or Won’t He Work with the GOP once freed of Reid?

The title is in reference to Douglas Adam’s 5 part trilogy beginning with A Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy and ending with “So Long and Thanks’ for All the Fish”. Basically if one has any familiarity with this irreverent take on life and its karma – then Harry Reid is about to become of those characters, the villain who is given his comeuppance, as the party faithful flee.

Tomorrow will be a day of historic proportions some pundits suggest, however, it may also be the tipping point in a mid-term where the population, in general, rejects, not only the Administration’s policies, but the progressives as a whole. Time of course, will tell, however, a recent Suffolk poll on the Massachusetts Governor’s race is telling. The Marginals (here) are chock full of surprises: In this poll, Baker leads Coakely for the Governor’s office by 4 points, and the President’s approval in MA remains underwater at 44%, Hillary Clinton’s visit to help out Martha Coakley had a net zero effect, with 61.4% suggesting it made no difference at all and finally, 28% watched Fox News more than any other network. The poll was based on Massachusetts political enrollment, 51% Unenrolled, 11% GOP, and 38% Democrat (approximately) – which does not bode well across the board for Progressives. The Ballot questions are also of interest, most favor keeping the casino and reject including bottled water, etc. in the states bottle return program.(Boston Herald)

North to New Hampshire, is the Scott Brown Race against Jean Shaheen, which is, at present a tie, Iowa was a tie, until a Des Moines Register Final poll showed no contest at all, with Earnst up by 7 points, and the Democrat Candidate suggesting she looks like Taylor Swift (Politico)

It is indeed a world gone somewhat wild. Given that the Republicans are set to take upwards to 10 seats (as some models show Iowa as a toss-up), and additional congressional seats, the President will be in a position to get things accomplished, should he be of that mind. With Reid gone from the equations (possibly a loud and obnoxious voice in the Senate to be sure, but no longer hampering votes and legislation from seeing the light of day, the President will have more opportunity to pass or veto as he sees’ fit.

Should the President reject overtures of bi-partisanship from the new Congress, then they have a loud enough group going into 2014 to continue to “Bushwhack” him, and the White House will also fall to the GOP – which, given history, is more than likely to happen even if the President was granted sainthood.

That said, a legacy is at stake, and rather going down in history as the rival to Jimmy Carter, he does have the opportunity to come out of this looking a lot more like Bill Clinton. The question remains, will he use the next two years to thwart the congress by any means (including overreach of the Constitution), or will he “play ball” and give and get in the dance of legislation?

Voters Are Angry – From MA to CA – Pelosi Begs for Cash as Rome Burns – Rand Paul in 30 States Supporting Candidates - Small tsunami or Armageddon?

According to CNN voters are somewhat miffed, to say the least, a full 60% or greater are angry at the direction of the country – that type of anger, the pollster suggests, is exactly what drove the wave of 2010 – the U.S. House takeover by the GOP. (CNN). What’s more, Nancy Pelosi is reported to be asking for cash from her minions in the Congress as the situation in House races is dicey again this mid-term. (Politico).

If that’s not bad enough, that rascally Rand Paul (KY-R) is running ads in Kansas of all places, to support the Senate candidate in that state. In addition, Rand’s PAC has been busy this mid-term, in other states where there is a need of support. Revealed by ABC news Rand has visit 30 states in this mid-term. (ABS News).

The standard GOP team for 2016 must be having conniption fits – Rand, not the ideal GOP candidate due to his many faults, such as voter outreach in groups largely ignored by the Party due to “belonging to the other party”, and darn it, a different approach to tax payers money (not spending it), and foreign policy (let ‘s not get overly involved) – yet he’s got the Reagan mojo going, and is undoubtedly the only candidate they have, or more precisely the nation has, that is a) willing and b) capable of reining in the insanity. That’s this opinion of course, however, historical patterns do play out – it is time for change in a positive direction – a candidate that will appeal to a large cross-section of the populace.

Massachusetts is seeing an anomaly as the GOP Candidate for Governor, Charley Baker, has been endorsed by almost every paper in the state, including the Boston Globe(Boston Globe) and the Springfield Republican.(Masslive) This is just the icing on the cake with Martha Coakley's 9 point deficit in the Boston Globe poll.

Two competitive Congressional Races are shaping up in MA – John Chapman against Incumbent Keating in the 9th district, and Richard Tisea versus newcomer Seth Mouton, standing in for defeated former 6th district rep, Tierney.

In New Hampshire, Scott Brown has taken the lead slightly over Jean Shaheen, whose supporters are sticking yard signs everywhere about the state touting her close relationship with the President – they will receive thank you notes from Brown’s campaign come that Wed. Morning in Nov.

The theory goes as follows, if Massachusetts has suddenly gone slightly purple, and then what of the rest of the nation where blue is not normally the flavor of the month?

Never mind the Tsunami – Armageddon is upon the Democrat party, and they know it. It is time for new leadership of the JFK ilk to pull my father’s party out of the ditch – not one capable person on the horizon that fits the bill.

2014 NH-MA Update – Brown Gains on Shaheen, Baker-Coakley Tied - New -Obamacare at Tax Time

The Boston Globe is reporting that Scott Brown’s gain’s against incumbent Democrat Shaheen is due to the “anti-Obamacare” sentiment in the Live Free or Die state (Boston Globe). Given the fact that USA Today announced those who did buy Obamacare with Subsidies will be seeing a penalty at tax time. The gist:

A significant benefit of the Affordable Care Act is the opportunity to receive money-saving tax credits up front to cut the overall cost of health insurance, but now hundreds of thousands of consumers could owe back some of that money next April.

Those affected took advance payments of the premium tax credit for health insurance. Some married couples could owe $600 or $1,500 or $2,500 or even more. It might feel like a raw deal for some who are already suffocating under the escalating costs of health insurance.

(USA Today)

Unless some sort of miracle occurs, and the trust is regained in politicians who have pushed this policy forward (all Democrats), then Brown should handily win in New Hampshire, and have plenty of company in other “safe” Democrat Senate and Congressional races nationwide. If that issue were one alone, it would not play as well, however, there is the immigration issue, the ISIS issue, and a host of other scandals that will have far reaching effects (see 2016).

The Massachusetts Governor's race also appears to be tied up: Rasmussen got involved and found the race at a dead heat with 1 month to go. (MASSLive) Martha is, perhaps, the worst second chance candidate the Mass Democrats could have fostered. Favoring raising taxes, scandal after scandal, and a very weary electorate should see Baker in the corner office. The only thing that makes this a “may” is the ability of the Dem boots on the ground to miraculously come up with 30,000 extra voters 11 hours before any given election (should the odds not be in their favor.) If Baker and the State GOP do not have poll watchers and attorneys present at most of the major cities, then it may still go Martha’s way. The Secretary of the Commonwealth has left the million plus dead and missing voters on the roles for just such an occasion. Incidentally, those same dead voters collect ebt cards . Local news stories, which do not appear to have much of an effect when the balloting is done. In order for Baker to best Coakley he needs to be 5 points up. When that happens, it’s a Baker Governorship.

WSJ/NBC Poll – Obama Confidence Low - Approval Sinks – Nation Rejects Both Major Political Entities

Most American's having difficulty telling DC Democrats or Republicans apart - image toonrefugee.com

The latest WSJ poll is out and according to NBC News the nation is no longer divided on President Obama’s capabilities; they are disapproving by the widest margin to date. In the same poll analysis by NBC, they note that the Republicans in Congress are doing worse than the President – and nearing the end of the article, note that most voters would rather not see their incumbent in office any longer (NBC News).

That was made evident last week in the stunning (to D.C.) defeat of Eric Cantor to College Professor, David Brat. One might suggest that that scenario will play out in coming primaries, regardless of which Party flavor, in the ensuing months. When it comes to the general, one might predict 40-50% of the seats will changes hands, which is not, by any means a conservative figure, however, when one looks closely at the 2013 local elections (yes, this anti-incumbent fervor had a trickle-down effect) – the incumbent lost in large numbers, in cities small and large.

As the leadership of each major political party has been called into question as of late, the 2016 prospects of those Libertarian Leaning politicians is looking up.

In the past weekends IA GOP convention Rand Paul (K), spoke to a room that decidedly changed their minds regarding the Senator, having previously been committed to other potential candidates, they came away deciding that Paul was the better choice, or at the very least, someone they would vote for .(U.S. News)

At the Massachusetts Democrat Convention Martha Coakely and Steve Grossman will face off in primaries against two others who made the ballot, according to the Boston Globe , the winner of which will face Charlie Baker for the Bay State corner office. Normal Massachusetts politics generally has a solid candidate going into the general, with either little or no primary challengers.

One might see both major political party fractioning in the ensuing years, as well as shifts, the Democrats becoming decidedly Progressive Socialist while Republicans more Libertarian in nature. Voter angst against the status quo will undoubtedly ensure that this scenario plays out either in whole or in part.

Massachusetts 2014 Governors Race – Primary Challenge for GOP – Charlie Baker and Mark Fisher – Could a Republican retake the Governor’s office?

It goes without saying that Charlie Baker will be seeking the Governor’s office this year as Deval Patrick finally exits. He will, however, face a challenger, Auburn, MA businessman, Mark Fisher. Fisher, who is more Tea Party, offers a non-politically connected option to those Bay State primary voters – His website: www.markfisher2014.com offers an about Mark, as well as an issues page. Charlie Baker who ran in 2009 against then incumbent Deval Patrick, managed a loss of 1% based on a third party (Independent) candidate – or someone who was a Democrat conveniently turned Independent in time for an election. Baker’s website www.charliebaker2014.com offers issues and insight into the candidate as well.

In Massachusetts politics one is instantly inclined to ask – “why bother” when Republican’s run against what is the Democrat machine in the Bay State. However, Boston Magazine suggests that with the top Democrats vying for the Governor’s office, there is not a great deal of confidence.

It would be the same if all nine of the Congressional seats (mainly incumbent Democrats) were also facing challengers, there would and should be a lack of confidence. The reason is not that the Bay State has suddenly turned red – by no means. It is more the anti-incumbent and anti-political party – that should have anyone who paid the slightest attention to the statewide local elections nervous. There were good and not so hot, mayoral races (outside of Boston) that went either way – with incumbent Republicans and solid Democrat mayors finding themselves short on vote, being replaced when it was thought not quite possible.

Since Massachusetts has been cast in the roll of what to do to win national elections, one might want to take a hard look at who is the least “political party” candidate and factor that person as a possible contender for the win. Of course, that does not take into consideration the usual Massachusetts.

Martha Coakley, MA AG, brings Federal Suit to Halt Catch Limits Decimating Mass. Fishing Industry

There are eleven nations that fish off the U.S.coastal waters, where US fishermen once could do the same - before Fish Catch - image of US Coast Guard Intercepting Foreign Fishing Vessel - article from Marine Science Today

Massachusetts State Attorney General, Martha Coakley, hasfiled a lawsuit against the Federal agency, NOAA, to stop the catch limits affecting the fishing industry in Massachusetts.

Catch Limits on fishing imposed in 2009, under the Obama Administration, have led to higher costs for consumers as the concept of supply and demand has driven prices of fresh fish up over the ensuing years, especially in states where fishing is a major industry.(WGME) In addition, the Federal Government has prepared ways to offer assistance to fishermen, as a result of the disaster caused by catch limits(FAS.org). Meanwhile, foreign fishing fleets are under no obligation to follow NOAA laws, and have been fishing unfettered offshore on all coasts with impunity.



New Bedford Fishermen protest against fish catch regulations - image Boston Globe

Therefore, the entire science behind the fish catch limits, is, in a word utter nonsense – most grocers now sell “sustainable, farm-raised fish”, which held the inland corporate fishing industry, however, does nothing for those self-employed fishermen who have enjoyed the waters off the Bay State since the Pilgrims landed. Higher costs for the regular folk, disastrous for the local fishing industry, and wholly ridiculous, as foreign fleets fish offshore, and are not subject to any “catch limits”.

Go Martha.

Trouble in Beantown! MA 2013 Senate Race - Markey up by Only 4 Points over Gomez – Michelle Obama to Boston for Markey Fundraiser on May 29th

Markey (left) and Gomez (right) - image AP via Politico

Ed Markey, the long-serving Democrat Congressman from the Massachusetts 5th District, is up against some narrow odds against newcomer, GOP candidate, Gabriel Gomez. A national poll from PPP (which is a Democrat leaning pollster), has Markey and Gomez only 4 percentage points apart – with a margin of error of 2.5%.

Gomez is starting out as a pretty popular candidate, with 41% of voters rating him favorably to 27% with an unfavorable opinion. Beyond having good numbers with Republicans he's at 42/24 with independents, and actually seen narrowly positively even by Democrats at 33/32. Voters meanwhile are more divided on Markey, with 44% holding a positive view of him to 41% with a negative one. He's at 31/50 with independents.

For a Republican to be competitive in Massachusetts they need to win independents by a hefty margin and get a fair amount of crossover support from Democrats, and right now Gomez is doing both of those things. He's up 47/31 with independents and winning over 21% of Democratic voters. Both those numbers suggest that some folks who supported Stephen Lynch in the primary are being a little reticent about supporting Markey in the general.

(PPP)

The pollster goes on to note that the good news for Markey is that Obama is very popular in Massachusetts. However, that did not work out so well for Martha Coakley who ran against Scott Brown in the 2010 special election.

Coakley was considered to have made mistakes, gaffes such as being unable to name a sports team; however, one might also point to the fact that in yet another high profile race, Markey is nowhere near the 15 point lead that Coakley had out of the gate. Coakley was known statewide, while Brown was little known. In this instance, Gomez had been working the state in person for months, as well in advertising buys introducing himself during the primary, to households throughout Massachusetts. Markey on the other hand, is not that well known, and his advertising amounted to little more than Al Gore like claims and the usual pro-choice messaging. Social issues are not a pivotal issue in this particular race, as Gomez is the candidate the Democrats wish they had.

Gomez is young, Hispanic, smart, successful and a former Navy Seal – compared to Markey, who looks like a great-grandfather of NARAL.

How much trouble is Markey in? Given the popularity of Obama in Massachusetts, the Boston Globe is reporting thatMichelle Obama will be headlining a fundraiser for Markey on the 29th of May – the ticket is priced at $37,600. The Globe goes on to note that the White House is prepared to do anything to help Markey – a reliable progressive voice in the Congress. The problem with Markey is he won by a margin of 58 to 43 percent.(Boston Globe) which sounds like a solid Democrat lead, however, those Lynch Democrats, and the Republican’s, and Independent's that voted for Lynch as a Blue Dog Democrat, will, in all likelihood, end up in the Gomez column.(See PPP Poll for Verification.)

Again, as a reminder, Obama personally came to Massachusetts to campaign for Martha Coakley in 2010, and that did not work out as well as expected. (Politico) That may necessary again, considering the circumstances – Gomez is not Scott Brown, he is extremely aggressive, out of the gate, with in-state and out-of-state ground troops that came in during the primaries. Brown did have ground troops, but that came weeks before the special election. There isn’t justification to compare Brown to Gomez (yet, so many articles in the news are dubbing Gomez, the next Scott Brown), they are in no wise similar, the only link is that they both are – Republican’s in Massachusetts, and Gomez is, of all things, an Hispanic Republican.

While Markey represents everything that is wrong is Washington – the status quo.

The only attributes that would make Gomez even more dangerous to the Democrats – if he were a woman and African American, making him a representative of the three “guaranteed Democrat voting blocs”, but one, being Hispanic is dangerous enough. What next? With Texas Senator, Ted Cruz, making a dent in the Democrat “owned” demographic,

Democrat heavyweight William Blaine "Bill" Richardson III has openly questioned the legitimacy of Texas Senator Ted Cruz's Latino heritage based solely on the Texas senator's politics

(On ABC This Week – Richardson stated :)

"I don’t think he should be defined as a Hispanic. He’s a politician from Texas, a conservative state...."

(examiner.com)

Perhaps Richardson ill need to make a trip to Massachusetts with Michelle Obama to remind the base that Gomez isn’t really Hispanic, he’s a Conservative….

Of course, as the progressives try and paint Gomez as “Tea Party”, which is laughable, they may indeed attempt to lump Gomez, with Cruz, Rubio, Martinez – all Hispanic Republican’s – who, despite some Tea Party support for the later three, those Hispanics that are conservative are no different than anyone else who finds that defending their political points of view, comes with labels, some of which have overtones of racism. Democrats (national) for all their party of inclusion hype, are starting to sound a lot like the narrative one hears about the counter-party – racist, angry old white men.

Anti-Incumbent Fever Catches On – the Long Hot Summer of Discontent - Tea Party Expansion

What began as small pockets of individuals meeting in groups and venting their frustrations over high taxes and Congressional Representatives that either failed to listen, or disparaged those who dared to question the wisdom of deficit spending of historical proportions has morphed into a viable political force – the Tea Party. The Tea Party has fielded and supported candidates for both the House and the Senate across the country, and those candidates are not recessing for the summer. One will hear about a group of “angry white men”, yet when looking at the Tea Party on a local basis, one finds that the opposite is true – not only are tea party groups inclusive of all ethnicity's and races, they are also inclusive on all political affiliations - the most prominent being those “unenrolled” or “independents” who previously felt neither major political party had what the individual was seeking.
What is it that Tea Party members are seeking in a candidate? The seek a candidate who offers strict adherence to the Constitution, someone who has worked for a living and understands the needs of the average American, someone who is fiscally responsible and believes in a balanced budget and, most importantly, tax cuts. Those members are specifically interested in someone who has not set foot in Washington DC. Yet, they are not exclusive to members of their own Party, they will support candidates who echo their core principals, which most often are registered Republicans.


The wisdom that has, for generations, pervaded the political class, is that of “experience”. For example, ads will run in Congressional races touting the 3, 4, or 10 terms a Congressional Representative and/or Senator has served; noting that they hold the keys to more benefits for their respective states due to their appointments to high profile committees. Candidates that ran against incumbents in the past, faced grilling from Editorial Boards and journalists, (and still do), about their “lack of experience”. Today, however, that lack of experience is particularly appealing to a growing block of voters, many of which have never attended a Tea Party meet-up and/or know all that much about the party.
The new wisdom is, simply put, if someone cannot get a house in order in a specific amount of time, or has consistently voted against the wishes of their constituents, or has voted for spending measures, then they are no longer considered a viable candidate and therefore, should be replaced, preferably by someone who has never served in the Congress. A true citizen legislature is what is sought by a growing body of voters – Tea Party or Democrat, or Green Party or Libertarian or Republican.
The dissatisfaction with the current two-party system did not begin, as one would be led to believe, as a response to the election of Barak Obama, and his policies which mirror those of former President Jimmy Carter, it began when the individual noticed they had no choice at the ballot box in each and every election – by that – most incumbents ran unopposed, and or opposition candidates were so few and far between with little funding, no media attention and a lack of cohesive support. Massachusetts, for example, has for years been considered the “Bluest State” simply because Democrats dominated all aspects of politics in the state, from the local and state level to the few Federal seats available - the logic followed, that no Republican could get elected in the State. Massachusetts was not an anomaly, other states followed suit, and the entire Northeast looked to be a sea of Blue with each election cycle.


This change began to evidence itself in 2006 and 2008, when additional candidates began to appear on the ballots, where none had appeared before – from California’s 8th District to the 4th District of Massachusetts – these individuals ran against deeply entrenched politicians and were immediately dismissed by both the media and the electorate – however, the later did not dismiss them entirely, with the candidate receiving at the least a percentage of the votes – giving those who were tired of seeing the same name on the ballot an option, which gave them hope for the future.


In Massachusetts, in 2008 and 2009, individuals began to look at public service, doctors, landscapers, and those who served in the military. In January of 2010, one Scott Brown became the first Republican elected to the Senate from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and it shocked the political establishment – who immediately dismissed his election as a “fluke” – blaming Martha Coakley, the Democrat who ran as opposition, for running a shoddy campaign. “They” didn’t get it. Had the media done its research they would have found established anti-incumbent candidates who had formed committees and were ready to run for Congress, the State Senate and the State Legislature.


The Tea Party, a response to the high taxes imposed on U.S. Citizens, began to throw support to these candidates, and has also begun to field candidates of its own.
Words of wisdom from an 86 year old unenrolled voter from the Bay State, who is not affiliated with the Tea Party – but understands the basics of economics gone astray – those currently in office do not deserve to be reelected, ordinary people can do a better job. The intent: to vote for anyone who is not an incumbent. That one older individual is not alone, younger voters, Hispanic voters, the individuals who have had enough, are looking forward to November and the opportunity to vote for the anti-incumbent. Democrats in Massachusetts specifically, are looking to voting for Republican’s for the first time since January 19th, 2010. One coined it, a Revolution, a Silent Revolution at the Ballot Box.


Therefore, when candidates who are either endorsed by or directly fielded by a Tea Party, hold a rally, they draw a crowd. One such that bears mentioning is one Allen West Allen West for Congress West, a candidate for the Florida 22nd, is one of the anti-incumbents to watch. According to the FEC West has to date, raised $2,065,855, while Ron Klein, the incumbent Democrat, has managed to raise $1,860,453 . The fact that West, in a District that leans Democrat, is doing so well with individual contributions at this stage of the game, speaks volumes. A 4th of July You Tube video of West is shown below. It is evident, by his speech, how the population in general views the 2010 election.


In fact, as the days progress, deeply entrenched politicians who were previously considered “untouchable” are now facing opposition – a newly released AP Article speaks to the problems faced by Russ Feingold this election cycle. This would not have been part of the political conversation two years ago.

As the Tea Party grows, and more importantly, the sentiment of the voters aligns with Tea Party principals, going into November on can envision a new Congress forming, one which will hold a few incumbents, and those who were voted in as anti-incumbents which will be in Washington to hold everyone accountable to this and future generations.

Adam West, Florida 22nd District Candidate, Speaking Before a Ft. Lauderdale Tea Party

Charles Baker – GOP Nominates the Strongest Candidate for Mass Govenor in Decades – Mihos States the Better Man Won

Charlie Baker, Candidate for Governor of Massachusetts - image Masslive

The Massachusetts State GOP held its convention this past Saturday in Worcester, MA - a convention that was palpably enthusiastic from a standpoint of both the candidates as well as the attendees, many of which were first time convention goers. With 4,000 plus in attendance, it was difficult to believe one was in Massachusetts – the State commonly referred to as “The Blues State”, or by most pundits writing about the states politics and specific races “Safe Democrat”. The concept that Massachusetts is "Safe Democrat" “think” may need to be revised and quickly.


Enthusiasm at State GOP Convention with Bakers Nomination - photo blog


The new blood flowing into the party sees over 170 Republicans’ running for state and national offices in 2010, with many districts seeing Republican primaries for both the State Senate and Legislature as well U.S. Congressional districts for the first time in decades. This decries the common misconception that, although Scott Brown won in Massachusetts, there are few if any Republican’s running for statewide office.

The Top GOP Ticket sees Charles Baker for Governor and Richard Tisei, (the Minority GOP State Senate Leader) for lieutenant governor. State Representative Karyn Polito received the nomination for treasurer; and accountant, Mary Z. Connaughton, for auditor. According to Jennifer Nassour, State Party Chair, there are two potential candidates to take on embattled Attorney General, Martha Coakley, yet signatures must be collected by May 4th, which the Boston Globe dubs a “Herculean task” That said, one can see Jennifer Nassour take on the challenge and get the job done.

Baker, who will run a three way race against incumbent Deval Patrick, and Democrat turned Independent, Timothy Cahill, offers voters a fresh face and common sense ideas to get the Commonwealth back on track. Although currently polling behind Cahill in one poll by 2 points (Western New England College Poll), the poll, taken prior to the convention also notes that 10% of respondents are currently undecided, and Bakers name recognition, at the time of the poll showed that 40% of the respondents chose “never heard of him” as an option. That will undoubtedly change as Baker strengthens his brand throughout the state.

Baker is at once charismatic and has that “boy next door” appeal, without seeming in the least elitists. One might say he is similar to Scott Brown, but only in the way in which the two men both worked to get through college, and their ability to relate to the “the rest of us."

Baker won the nomination in delegate balloting between himself and Christy Mihos. Mihos has since given his nod of approval to Baker, stating that the “Better man won” Kudos to Christy for being a “class act”.

What makes Baker the man for the job? He has the experience in running a business, the former embattled Harvard Pilgrim Healthcare, and turned it into a profitable enterprise. He also brings State government experience to the table having served as Undersecretary for Health in the Executive Office of Health and Human Services in the Weld administration. However, it is the personal side of Baker that seals the deal – in his remarks during the convention, he spoke about the lack of opportunity in the Commonwealth, and as a parent, he wondered if his children would move elsewhere to find opportunity (as many have, and many continue to do), and how, should the State Continue on its current path, many parents would have to either get on a plane or travel a distance in order to see their children and grandchildren. It was a moment of speak from the heart, and it resonated with those who see children leaving the state, or preparing to leave, to seek homes where the taxes are not as high and the opportunities do not include a life in the service industry.

Therefore, Baker is, indeed the better Candidate for the Governor’s office, based on background, experience and empathy for those citizens who are struggling to make ends meet under the never ending request for new taxes coming out of Beacon Hill. The argument will be made - how will Baker get anything done with a legislature and Senate that is completely made up of Democrats? That will remain to be seen, as November approaches and the dust settles, odds favor that the 170 plus candidates vying for state offices as well as congressional offices, will even the field and make the path for reform under Baker a bit easier than it has been for past Republican Governors.

Although early in the game, one can predict, based on past Massachusetts gubernatorial races, where a third party is involved and the incumbent has numbers that are less than favorable (34% approval for Deval Patrick according to the Western New England poll), the more Baker is among the populace, personally and through advertising, his stock will rise, and Cahill will fall into the usual independent category of 6% come November. Of interest a recent online poll (which one cannot give too much credence, however, it did come from the Springfield Republican website – Masslive.com (which Western Massachusetts is not normally a stronghold for Republicans (with exceptions of Chicopee, Westfield and other communities who voted overwhelmingly for Brown, while Springfield voted for Coakley) – the poll results thus far: Baker: 45%, Cahill 26% and Patrick 21%. Although the actual statewide numbers may be closer to Patrick 34% (based on current approval and WNEC poll, Cahill 12% (giving him the benefit of the doubt) and Baker 54%.


Masslive.com polls shows Baker with Strong Lead

Barney Frank (D-MA)Seeks Second Stimulus – Spending Till The Chickens Come Home to Roost – 2010 Re-election Strategy Unhinged

Barney Frank, Chair of House Finance Committee, Up for Re-election 2010 - image bilerico

The Boston Globe’s, report on one of their favorite political sons, the 4th Districts, Barney Frank speaks to the need for a second stimulus in order to “create jobs and avoid a double dip recession”. Frank, who is the Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, brought out economists to speak on behalf of the necessity for a second stimulus, one from a dot.com company, Moody’s, suggested that the first stimulus did not go far enough.

Frank, understanding that he is up for re-election, has not proposed any legislation, rather used his time to lay out a case for a second stimulus, bash the Republican Party, and talk about job creation. The fact of the matter is that the first stimulus, saved public sector jobs, and created public sector jobs, however, little evidence exists that the Stimulus has created private sector jobs, which are vital for economic recovery. One reason, CBS News 2-18-09) only 23% of the first stimulus will be spent through 2010, with much of the monies targeted for projects that will not be in place for years. Therefore, a second stimulus seems hardly wise in this instance, but it does pull at the heartstrings of those voters who are living in the hard-hit 4th District.

Frank must have missed the Jobs Bill that was agreed to move forward yesterday, in the Senate. Should the Senate vote today to pass the bill, which would add an additional 13 billion to the already top-heavy budget. One can bet the house that Frank will be behind the President’s Health Care Reform package that the CB0 can’t even begin to calculate costs. (New York Times) Should the Senate push this version of Health Care through with a “simple majority”, no one knows how big the final price tag will be for the continually suffering public.

Frank, who has seen multiple contenders come out of the woodwork in recent weeks, including members of his own party, will have his hands busy the next few months, defending his positions on a variety of issues. The populist front runner, Republican Earl Sholley, (website) had run against Frank once before, in 2008. In that election, Sholley had entered the race late, a virtual unknown, who managed to receive 70,000 plus votes. It should be stated that there are not 70,000 Republican’s in the 4th district. Giving those observers a clue that Frank did not, at the time, did not have complete trust from the electorate. Times have changed and the economy, under Frank’s watch (literally), has turned for the worse. Key cities in the District have higher than average unemployment rates, (The Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a 13.1% unemployment rate for that city in year end 2009) and suggesting a second stimulus when a first has hardly touched the district (private sector), may not be enough to save Frank’s job in 2010.

Sholley, at first glance, does not appear to be the “perfect candidate”, however, he is a staunch fiscal conservative and strict constructionist who makes no excuses and shoots from the hip.

Sholley faces a primary challenge from several newcomers to the race. Those that entered when it was apparent that the 4th district could, indeed, be won by a Republican, include Sean Bielat (website here), recently of Brookline. Bielat, gained some national recognition when interviewed by Huffington Post during his visit to CPAC. The Boston Globe did a piece on Bielat and the fact that he was a “newcomer” who had entered the race against Frank. The Globe used the article in an effort to downplay Sholley’s candidacy, noting that he had run several times without a win. (History Lesson: Several of our most revered Presidents and office holders ran multiple times unsuccessfully before being elected, among them, Abraham Lincoln) The article, using language that speaks to the inadequacy of the challengers paints Frank in a very capable and sympathetic light.

Of course, for a Conservative, running in Massachusetts, regardless of which Democrat one runs against, receiving press of any type is unusual and positive press is non-existent. The Globe, the weekend preceding the special senate election, was still publishing articles praising Martha Coakley and touting her impending win over Scott Brown. Even independent radio talking head, Howie Carr dismissed Brown’s ability to win, until the 9th hour. Carr recently wrote a piece on the 4th district candidates, which sounded alarmingly similar to the Globe’s point of view.

In the final analysis, regardless of which candidates end up running, from Green Party, to Republican, Barney Frank will not have an easy road to re-election, and it is probable that he will be retired in 2010.

U.S. Senator Scott Brown – The People’s Victory in Massachusetts – Analysis

For weeks, months, or possibly years, the pundits will be analyzing how Scott Brown, a State Senator from Wrentham, bested Martha Coakley, the clear Democrat front-runner, in what has been called one of the 5 greatest upsets in American political history. The blame game had begun well before the election, with both the Coakley campaign and the DNC pointing fingers at one another, with a media that was “shocked” that a Republican could win in Massachusetts. Health care, or health care reform, to be exact, was touted as the pivotal reason for Brown’s election. There are bits of truth to each: Coakley ran a lackluster campaign, that with the help of the DNC turned negative in the last weeks before the election and turned off the all important Independent voter, the media and pundits refused to acknowledge the fact, until yesterday, that the electorate in Massachusetts is dominated by unenrolled, or independent voters, which align themselves with neither party, and Health Care Reform, was one of the reasons that voters turned to Brown, but it was not the only reason.

Scott Brown won the U.S. Senate Seat on his own merits, by his own work and his ability to create a populist message with all sincerity - one which resonated throughout the Commonwealth. Additionally, his ability to stand by his own record, throughout the debates, in a straight-forward, no-nonsense way won over those who are sick of politicians who offer excuses - Brown “man’s up”. He shared his personal story with the populace, one which tells the tale of a young man, without the proverbial silver spoon, working his way through college, and never forgetting his roots, he is not above the rest of “us”; he is with the rest of us. Therefore, Browns’ natural ability to lead, added to the aforementioned, won the Senate Seat.
On issues, although health care reform was mentioned most often, Brown spoke, just as much about Cap and Trade legislation, foreign policy and his understanding from both a civilian as well as a military point of view. Brown is the real deal, right from the playbook of our founding fathers, a citizen legislator. His acceptance speech, was, like the candidate, at once, humble, telling those who he thanked for working so hard, how the seat belonged to them, it was “the people’s seat”, he then went on to sprinkle quick humor throughout the speech, and included what should be studied by one and all, that consider running for office – he was extremely gracious, both to Martha Coakley, but to the entire administration.

The electorate in Massachusetts, having witnessed several progressive administrations, including governors (Deval Patrick), Barack Obama, and then Jimmy Carter, rejected the policy of a one-size fits all, shoebox mentality that is chock full of entitlements, state and federal spending and taxing the daylights out of populace. As ads ran with words like “good progressives of Massachusetts, and “Obama’s agenda” sprinkled throughout and approved by Coakley, one could feel the anger rise amongst those who call themselves Independents.

This will be the message that will continue to be sent as the 2010 races come to the forefront. There are several congressional districts in play in Massachusetts this year, and the incumbent that sits on their laurels, makes few visits to a district, or follows a party line to the letter, is facing a populace in the Bay State that has clearly had enough. The message is clear, it is time to mix it up and send like-minded citizens to Washington. Although Health Care may or may not be an issue by the time the games, already underway, begin in earnest, which is only one of the issues that propelled Scott Brown forward.

If one has not seen or heard his acceptance speech, one should take the time to watch the clip below, and although one might have to go far to find another Scott Brown from Wrentham, as he is who he is, there are men and women standing ready to fight for the people’s seats, in every district in Massachusetts and in every state in the nation.

Suggest watching the following candidates closely (Seats are projected, what else? "Safe Democrat":

From the Massachusetts 2nd Hampden, Dr. Jay Flietman www.jayfleitman.com.

Dr. Flietman will face entrenched Congressman Richard Neal nealforcongress.com who has a voting pattern over the past decades that refuses to cross a party line.

From the Massachusetts 4th District, Earl Sholley SholleyforCongress.us, a populist Independent Republican, who is an avid historian specifically regarding the Constitution and the model of the Congress.

Sholley will face, for a second time, Congressman Barney Frank Barneyfrank.net, the man who is most associated with Freddie and Fannie, and otherwise, needs little in the way of introduction. His voting record speaks for itself.

Therefore, when pundits ask “how” Massachusetts could elect Republican’s, they should understand that, the colony which broke the yoke of England to form the United States of America, has the ability to endure heavy taxes and great burdens, but for only so long. The fact that Massachusetts residents have a higher tolerance level than residence of other states, should send a clear message to those citizens who would be legislators to step up, and remember Scott Brown’s words in speaking to the citizens of the Commonwealth: “You are the machine.”

Today, Massachusetts Finally has a Choice – Brown vs. Coakley – U.S. Senate Race

For what seems like decades the voters of Massachusetts have had few choices if any when it came to most state elections, however, today the choice is there, in the form of one State Senator, Scott Brown. It is not so much that names have not been on the ballot, not that other candidates in the past were not worthy to hold a seat in the State Legislature, the Governor’s office, the U.S. Congress or the U.S. Senate, it has been a battle of name recognition and the quality candidate combined that turned the Commonwealth that gave history a Republic in the new world, into a state the pundits consistently called “Safe Democrat”. It has been so lopsided as far as one political party is concerned, that most often another name is not even on the ballot. In the past, when going to the polls, one found oneself focused on the ballot initiatives more than the actual candidates.

Today, voters go to the polls in Massachustts with a clear choice to fill a vacant U.S. Senate Seat – on one side they have Scott Brown, a Republican from Wrentham, MA who has been a State Senator for three terms. Brown is part of a small group of Republican’s that sit with a majority of Democrats on Beacon Hill. In 2006, this blog found Scott Browns website for constituent services and became interested in the Republican from Wrentham. His monthly newsletters to constituents here are filled with tips for constituents, and updates about what is happening in their government. In subscribing over a period of years, one found that Brown takes care of his constituents, listens to their needs, and offers suggestions. In addition, he does not always vote party line, but weighs the value of each piece of legislation regardless of the source before making a decision. This is the type of legislator that every district in Massachusetts would welcome. Brown, a conservative, is also a moderate, not too far to the right, nor too far to the left, but pragmatic when looking at a given issue. In other words, someone with some common sense and intelligence with a love of country that is apparent by his thirty years of service in the National Guard.

Martha Coakley, a former district attorney from Middlesex County and in her first term as Attorney General for the Commonwealth, is a different story. It is not so much that Martha Coakley is not a good Attorney General, or that she hasn’t done her best for her constituents in that particular position, however, her qualifications hardly suit her for the State Senate, let alone the U.S. Senate. It is not her decision making process, it is her extreme devotion to party over the people of the Commonwealth that makes Coakley the least desirable candidate in this particular race.

This Senate race has garnered a great deal of national attention, but it is, and remains, the race of the people of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. In all the endorsements, visits from party dignitaries and a great deal of advertising, robo-calls and the like, the only deciding factor is the actual candidate and that candidates qualifications to best represent Massachusetts, not for a party, not for a President’s agenda, but for the people. In the past several years, Brown has made that his priority, and in this campaign, his sincerity in his promise to continue to do so, is what makes him the most qualified to be the next U.S. Senator from Massachusetts.

Throughout this campaign, in speaking to those who would vote in Massachusetts, one simple instruction was given, investigate both candidates and then make a decision. A candidate, regardless of party, should be “given” a seat, or “entitled” to a seat, because of party, but because of a proven record. The last week or two saw advertising that was so chock full of fabrication (politely put) regarding Senator Brown’s record (which is available online), that it smacked of desperation, and arrogance. Arrogance that the good people of the Commonwealth lacked common sense and would do as they were told: vote for the President’s Agenda. The ads barely mentioned Martha Coakley as candidate.

One cannot predict the outcome of today’s election, although polls are giving Brown the edge, and Scott Brown clearly has the momentum, rest assured nothing has been taken for granted. Last night felt like Christmas Eve all over again, and that’s a rare feeling for moderate conservative thinkers in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. As we head to the polls in approximately an hour, the choice is there, and as the country watches, rest assured, the people were given a choice, they reacted to the choice, and, after the dust settles, and a decision has been made by the people. Side note: spotters from both parties (including unenrolled) will be in place at each polling station throuout the Commonwealth). Finally, regardless of the newspaper endorsements, regardless of the pundits from both inside and outside the Commonwealth and regardless of the perception that Massachusetts belongs to one political party – the Commonwealth belongs to its citizens.
Polls open at 7 am and close at 8 pm.

The next races to watch U.S. Congressional: The Hampden 2nd and the Massachusetts 4th District.

Mass Democrats Prepare – Two candidates eye Scott Brown’s MA Senate Seat. Coakley’s outside Aid Irks the Commonwealth Electorate. Analysis

A candidate from the Democrat Party, Peter Smulowitz, a physician from Needham, has already begun to campaign for the Massachusetts State Senate Seat that is currently held by Scott Brown. Today, the Boston Globe is reporting that Smulowitz will have competition from within his own party. State Rep. Linda Harkins, is also contemplating running for the seat.

Former front-runner for the vacant U.S. Senate Seat, Democrat Martha Coakley, has been either eclipsed or tied by Republican Scott Brown, in recent polls, and some sources suggest that the Democrat Internal polling is just as dismal. Brown, who has support by grassroots campaigning, speaks to all the citizens of the commonwealth as evidenced by the headline article in the paper that endorsed Coakley, the Globe. In an article today under Mass Senate Election 2010 entitled “Brown Pushes Far out beyond His GOP Base” a reporter for the Globe actually does a good job with a profile of Brown on the campaign trail. Brown’s fundraising has soared, with individuals contributing over 1 million dollars in a 24 hour period, while Coakley is relying on Washington Fundraisers to get up the funds to finish the campaign, using negative advertising.

It is apparent that the handwriting, if not on the wall, is in the minds of those savvy Massachusetts Democrats who eat, live and breathe for their hold over the Commonwealth, which is why, with Coakley’s popularity in serious doubt, they are prepared to go after a the 3rd term State Senators seat. This campaign has turned from an "us versus them" Political Party norm into a people of the Commonwealth versus the “machine”. With every negative ad, including the one in which Coakley’s staff misspelled “Massachusetts”, with every story about another Washington fundraiser, or help from outside sources, residents of the Bay state are standing up – it appears it is not so much about Brown or Coakley, for that matter, it is about the distaste for the sense of “entitlement” shown by one Party that feels they a)own a senate seat, and b)own the Commonwealth – Brown has become an icon for the Bay State.

Pundits and polls aside, it is a “call to arms” that has gone out to friends, relatives, and neighbors, to take back the State where the Nation was formed, it is the pride of the people of the Commonwealth that is going to make the difference in this election, regardless of political affiliation. Coakley has not lost the race yet, but with every letter that is passed around suggesting that the ‘dead will be voting” to emails from Organizing for America (Obama's Campaign), exhorting residents of neighboring states to “help” in the Massachusetts election, she is getting that much closer to finishing out her first and only term as the States Attorney General. Had she run on her own merits, the outcome may have been different, it is the “outside” aid including fundraising, and that is irking those inside the Commonwealth. It is, therefore, no surprise that Brown’s Senate Seat is seen as “soon to be” available.

Scott Brown Advertising Response to Coakley's Attack Ad - Brilliant

Scott Brown U.S. Senate Candidate Response to Martha Coakley, U.S. Senate Candidate Attack Ad - MA. Senate Special Election, January 19th, 2010.

Brown Coakley U.S. Senate Debate - Brown Clips Coakley in Final Debate

The final debate for the U.S. Senate was held this evening at UMass Boston. (The full debate is available hereat C-SPAN). A portion of the debate from NECN is shown below. David Gergan moderated, the debate style was not as engaging as the last debate held on WGBY Springfield, which was a bit more "free-wheeling". Brown stood fast to his independent stance, showcasing his knowledge of foreign policy, while Coakley harped about "Bush-Cheney". Best line of the debate: The opening when Gergan asked Brown an opening questions regarding "Ted Kennedy's seat" - Brown's reply was quick and to the point - (abridged) - This is not Ted Kennedy's seat, this seat belongs to the people of the State of Massachusetts.

Independent Candidate Joe Kennedy held his own, although Gergan mentioned 20 times that he was not related to "The Kennedy's", and gave him little to no opportunity to answer questions. On substance Brown won the debate handily. Both Brown, Coakley appeared tired.

The end result is not only one of ideology but of legislative experience: Coakley, elected in 2006, has served as the Commonwealth's Attorney General while Brown is on his 3rd term in the State Senate, having served previously as a State Representative. Brown is decidedly a moderate conservative, who will cross the aisle, while Coakley is a pronounced Progressive Democrat. Brown came off as the guy next door - Mr. Smith goes to Washington if you will. Coakely came off as a somewhat arrogant and at times, uninformed or intentionally misleading.


New England Cable News Debate Coverage

Poll Stunner - Obama Approval in Massachusetts Drops To 44%

Public Policy Polling Reveals Obama Approval in Mass. at 43%

A poll released yesterday by Public Policy Polling on the U.S. Senate Race in Massachusetts, revealed some interesting statistics on Massachusetts changing views. In reviewing the poll methodology one finds a sample of 744 likely voters using automated phone polling (see Rasmussen using same methodology). The Commonwealth’s voter registration is not in sync with the survey – for example: in indentifying voter affiliation: of those surveyed: 44% of the respondents: Democrat, 17% Republican and 39% independent/other. The makeup of the Bay State, based on the 2008 Election Results by the Massachusetts Secretary of State Democrats show party affiliation as follows: 36.95%, Republicans: 11.62%, Unenrolled (Independent) 50.75% and the balance (Green Party, Libertarian, etc.: .68% (less than 1%). Therefore, the poll by Public Policy was heavily weighted in Coakley’s favor, and in President Obama’s favor, given the same criteria.

The returns from the general election for the Bay State were “typical” Obama received 62% of the popular vote compared to McCain’s 36% Fast forward to the Mass. State Senate Poll: On the question of Approval from Bay State Voters: 44% Approve, 43% disapprove, with 13% “unsure”, on the question of Health Care Reform: 41% approve, 47% oppose, and 12% hold no opinion.

It is the common misconception that Massachusetts is in a virtual bubble when it comes to voting for the Democrat over a Republican or Independent Candidate, however, when one parses the actual electoral makeup one finds a group of voters who have become disenfranchised, increasingly conservative, and the majority reject the current administration and specifically the issue of Health Care Reform.

Yes, in Massachusetts.

Obama’s falling popularity is, in part, reflected in the numbers Brown is receiving, but only in part, as one has to look at Coakley favorabilitys. Also of interest, the DNC is sending former President Bill Clinton to “stump” for Martha Coakley. Clinton will be stopping in Boston to attempt to boost voter enthusiasm for Coakley. Although popular in the Bay State (at one time – no recent data), Clinton has his job cut out for him. The environment is decidedly not in favor of the Party in Power. This is not necessarily about Washington, although it plays a significant roll, it is also about the corruption on Beacon Hill, and a growing unease with the Democrat Party in general. If Obama’s approvals are this dismal in a state that he took by over 30%, what are the odds of Coakley pulling off, what now would be an “upset”?

MA Senate Update – Poll – 1-9-2010 - Republican Scott Brown Leads Coakley 48 to 47

The latest poll is now showing that Republican Scott Brown is leading Democrat, Martha Coakley in the race to fill the vacant Senate Seat in the January 19th, MA Special Election.

The pollster, Pubic Policy Polling just released the data this evening:
From their blog:

Here's the reality: the Republicans and GOP leaning independents are going to come out and vote for Scott Brown. There's no doubt about that. But there's also a much larger pool of potential Democratic voters in the state. If Coakley can get them out, she wins. But this race is well past the stage where Democrats can take it for granted that will happen. It will be fascinating to see what happens the final ten days and we'll do a second poll on the race next weekend.

One gets the feeling, here in Massachusetts, that Brown is crossing party lines, pulling not only the Republican and Independent voters, but Democrats in growing numbers. Brown held a Town Hall today by phone for residents of the Bay State – this bloggers phone has been ringing off the hook ever since. It will continue to be an uphill battle, one should take nothing for granted, here, in MA – but the fact that the Secretary of State refuses to certify the election for 10 days to wait for absentee ballots, makes one believe that the Democrats are taking no chances. In addition, that move seems to have solidified the vote behind Brown. There is a “take no prisoners” attitude by the electorate one has not seen since November 1979. If Massachusetts is to make history, the citizens of the Bay State cannot lay idle based on polls, and it appears that, for the first time in decades, they are more than aware of what is at stake.

Poll Resultshere

Rasmussen MA Senate Poll Results: Coakley has 9 Point Lead over Brown Margin of Error: 4.5 – Key: Brown Leads Independents 65-21%

Rasmussen Reportsreleased the first polling for the Massachusetts Special Election to fill the U.S. Vacant Senate Seat today. Democrat, Martha Coakley shows a 9 point lead over Brown, with a margin of error of 4.5 and 7% undecided. Rasmussen did not include Libertarian Candidate Kennedy in the polling, rather listed: other candidates, which may have skewed results in Coakley's favor. The biggest factor in this particular poll is the lead Brown has among Independent Voters - based on Rasmussen: Brown leads 65 to 21%.

Contrary to popular MSN opinion – Massachusetts in this instance is not “Safe Democrat” – The Bay State has a horserace on its hands. Due to the fact that in special elections in Massachusetts the Republican normally has the advantage, plus the high percentage of unenrolled voters turning to Brown (the majority of the electorate in MA) and the money is on Scott Brown to win.

Rasmussen Reports Polling Mass Special Election Race – Citizens Poll Shows Brown in Lead over Coakley – Science and Grass Roots Polling

The Washington Independentreleased a short article last night noting that independent pollster Rasmussen, was polling the Bay State for the January 19th, Special Senate Election. Rasmussen had confirmed to this blog that there would be a poll, but did not give a date. It should be noted that there are very few polls conducted by national pollsters in Massachusetts races – races in the Commonwealth are normally considered “safe Democrat” – as in “why bother wasting resources” (See CQ Politics article here regarding Scott Brown’s newest television ad which began running yesterday. (Ad below) The logic used by CQ Politics is that Coakley is heavily favored in the race, yet there has been no known data to back this up, with the exception of Coakley’s FEC report being slightly higher than Browns.

Money can’t buy votes.

Brown has been highly visible, crisscrossing the state, and doing one bang up job on the ground, while Coakley has been – non-existent. Other than one web ad, rebutting Brown’s first televised ad little has come from the alleged CQ Politics frontrunner.

The next debate is set for February 8th in Springfield, MA on WGBY Television. WGBY is a public television station, which has the smallest market share in the DMA, that said, there has been a growing interest in the race, on the “ground” so to speak in MA, therefore, one might expect an increase in their rankings for the 8th .

To date, there has been one unscientific poll, a citizens poll taken by a husband and wife team blogging out of Buzzards Bay. the poll was conducted using a phone book, calling all corners of the Bay State, over what appears to be several days (or weeks) – the results available here have Brown up by 11 plus points. Although of interest, the poll was conducted based on one question, regarding who one would support in the special election – Brown or Coakley. Understanding that these individuals were motivated by a lack of polling, and had no prior polling experience, one has to give them credit for putting in those hours, and at least presenting results – results that can be used to compare with other polling data released by Rasmussen. That said, they did not include the third party candidate: Joe Kennedy, and did not ask party affiliation.

In Monday morning quarterbacking (guilty), had they asked both, they may have found that putting Kennedy in the “mix” would yield a different picture. The reasoning: most Massachusetts voters are just beginning to be aware of the race, via Browns advertising. Asking a Democrat to choose between Republican, Brown, Democrat Coakley, or Libertarian Kennedy, may see those Democrats who would not vote for Coakley under any circumstances, voting for Kennedy based on name recognition alone. Additionally, asking party affiliation, would have given insight into which the Unenrolleds are choosing, as well as who the Democrats will ultimately choose. That’s the information that is gleaned during internal polling, which may be why Martha has been so silent as of late. Knowing you’re within the margin of error in Massachusetts and a Democrat means that the race might be tight, but the chances of victory slim.

Trolling for votes

Another reason that Coakley may feel she has an edge – corruption in the State Party’s get out the vote. The Blog SISU on the Brown/Coakley race, suggests that Coakley’s will be aided by an inordinate amount of “dead people” in order to get her over the top. Although one would think that might not be necessary in the Bluest State, it is not uncommon for activists to troll nursing homes in order to get a vote for the Democrat candidate. (Personal experience, mother with dementia, in a nursing home in Western Mass, was about to “vote” for Al Gore, although she had no idea of who Gore was, or who I was – resulting: volunteer was summarily shown the door – letter to Secretary of State – result ignored.)

Therefore, based on the theory of corruption put forth by the SISU blog, and the alleged corruption that may be employed – one would have to assume that ACORN, the SEIU, (who cannot control their membership when it comes to the voting booth), and a plethora of nursing homes and mortuaries (or cemeteries) in the state, are polled and vote for Coakley, will it be enough to get her over the top? One also has to ask would the State’s Attorney General knowingly stoop to such a crime?

The most likely scenario at this point: should the poll come within the margin of error, or be within 10 points (either way), the race is going to be tight. Brown, who has the edge on Coakley in experience (MA Senate) as well, getting his message out to every nook and cranny in the State (which is resonating with voters). In addition, it is which candidate can actually inspire to get out the vote – Brown’s grassroots organization is tight, Coakley does not have a grassroots organization, and will have to rely on the same old “machine”. Turnout is critical and the grassroots is motivated. Should the above-mentioned hold – Scott Brown will be going to Washington.

Note: Rasmussen polling, although an independent pollsters, has come under fire from DNC activist as being in the RNC’s pocket (so to speak), due to the fact that polls taken show a rejection of both programs and candidates. That said, the methodology used in the polling, random phone calls in a given area, (much the same as the non-scientific poll mentioned above) and automated polling (key in an answer), make that claim fallacious to say the least.) What to watch for in the Rasmussen Poll: the marginal – voters’ polled, political affiliation, and the inclusion of the third party candidate.

The result of the Rasmussen poll will be published once available.

New Scott Brown Television Ad

MA Senate Race: Brown Strikes First - TV AD Begins Run Today

Breaking news fromThe Boston Globe - Scott Brown, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, is the first of the three candidates for the MA Vacant Senate seat, to begin to run television ads. Martha Coakley has yet to begin advertising.

The ad, shown below, entitled Different People, Same Message, speaks to the conservative values of John F. Kennedy.