Democrat Petere Smulowitz eyes Browns MA Senate Seat - image Beth Isreal
Democrat Peter Smulowitza physician from Needham, Mass. met with the Attleboro Democrat Committee this week. Smulowitz has already begun campaigning for the State Senate Seat currently held by Scott Brown. Smulowitz is the first to announce his candidacy to fill the State Senate Seat, as the likelihood of Brown taking the U.S. Senate Seat becomes more of a probability – he is the first Democrat to step forward. Republican State representative, Richard Ross, has expressed an interest in the running for Brown’s seat, but has not begun to actively campaign. From this perspective, in the Eastern Part of the State, where the population is heaviest, the Democrats getting a replacement ready for the vacant State Senate Seat speaks volumes about their confidence in Martha Coakley, the Democrat Candidate going to Washington. One thing about Beacon Hill, it is all about the stranglehold the Democrats have on Massachusetts state government and the opportunity to pick up an even greater majority by one seat, has them on the move.
Tonight, the Western Part of the State has the opportunity to watch a debate on the Public Television Station: WGBY Springfield There appears to be some confusion as to the actual airing of the debate: The State were in, will air sometime between 7PM and 7:30 and last approximately one hour – podcasts are available to those outside of the are here
The debate will feature the two major candidates, Scott Brown, Republican, Martha Coakley, Democrat and Joe Kennedy, the Impendent Candidate. What to watch for: Brown will fend off several direct attacks by Joe Kennedy, who will sound as if he may be campaigning for Martha Coakley. This has occurred in the last several debates. It was at Coakley’s insistence that Kennedy be included, her handlers’ assumption was that Brown and Kennedy would appear to be similar – not the case. Brown is anti-war and pro-abortion – so much more in line with Coakley than Kennedy. As to Coakley, she has, in past debates, spoken directly to her base.
Watch specifically for references to Karl Rove/Dick Cheney/Republican Attack Machine references in respect to Brown. Brown, who is a moderate and has a record of crossing the aisle, has been garnering attention from outside groups. One PAC has begun running ads in the Bay State, which Brown has denounced. The ads are on the line of “attack” ads – (i.e. Ads painting the opposition in less than glowing terms.) John Kerry immediately jumped to Martha's defense by a reference to the Swift Boat Veteran.
Brown’s ads, to his credit, have not mentioned his opponent, rather have been about what he feels is good for the stae, the ad by American Future Fund is in stark contrast to Browns personality. Again, as in past debates, Coakley may continue her march left, in order to speak to those Democrats who outnumber the Republican voters in the State. The problem is that the majority vote comes from Independents, who are aligned with neither party and who Brown (according to a Rasmussen Poll) is drawing 3 to 1. The hour-long debate, which will be watched by those who turn in on Friday nights to WGBY, or are heavy political junkies, will do little to reach those who prefer to watch paint dry than tune into anything political (the majority of the voters). For comparison, all candidates’ ads: Browns 2, Coakley’s 1 and the PAC will be shown below.
The nation, specifically from a grass roots perspective has begun to realize that it is more than possible for a Republican to take seat in Massachusetts, no matter if it was a seat held by 47 years by one, Ted Kennedy – the average voter is going to look at the following in the voting booth (those who get out and vote on the 19th) Brown (R), Coakley (D), and Kennedy (L) or possibly (I). As the news is not a priority for most people in this day and age – unless you consider “entertainment tonight” news, then an average Democrat is going to see a choice between Coakley and a Kennedy – they’ll have no clue as to what the “L” or “I” stands for – let the reader decide who the Democrat that cannot stand voting for a Republican will pull that lever for (goes to bias against women, and the fact that Coakley hasn’t been visible in the Commonwealth.
Brown has, in recent days, begun to make believers out of those in Washington, specifically the NRSC and the GOP, who, at this late date, by raising funds, most likely want to at the very least, be able to take credit as the likelihood of a Brown making history becomes more plausible. It is more likely, however, that the individual donations and those working phones from afar for Brown (Chicago gets extra points), will do more in making this horserace in the Bay State one of the most exciting “special elections” in a long while.
To date, there has been no word of a visit from Obama or Biden or any other “high profile” democrat to Rally the Troops in support of Martha Coakley – there are two scenarios – they either believe the situation is such that a Republican simply cannot win, or understand that it would be another wasted trip (see Virginia and New Jersey). The jury is still out – and the outcome of such may be predicable based on past results.
Scott Brown First Ad
Scott Brown Second Ad
Martha Coakley 1st Senate Ad (to date)
“Attack” Ad by America Future Fund
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