Thursday, October 09, 2014
From the Boston Globe: an op-ed piece giving Baker the edge in the last debate – with a blow by blow account (read story here of where he bested the rest of the Candidates.
In addition new polling out suggests that Charlie Baker is over Coakley by sufficient points so that adding dead and illegible voters is now out of the questions. An Emerson Poll gives baker a 5 point lead, out of which he’ll need 2 points to compensate for the dead and additional voters, - he still wins. That takes into account the possibility that the dem’s will have time to pay attention to Martha, There are congressional races that may have odd outcomes, as in oddly enough the republican won! Richard Tisei, is one of “those” Republican’s that may be rightly walking the halls of Congress before long.
One can bet the house that Baker will be swinging his way to the nomination – given the serious advertising he has placed to attract, not the 12% republican base in the state, but the unenrolled and yes, he’s got the democrats on his side.
See YouTube video below.
Smart, very smart
Welcome to the new Massachusetts!
Wednesday, October 08, 2014
Senate Elections 2014 – NC Debate leaves questions – Hagan hammers Millionaires – clueless on Kennedy Equal Pay Act. Picking Harry Reid’s Replacement.
It’s difficult to tell which races will be the one to finally push Harry Reid (D-NV) off his mighty perch, and send him back to the floor of the Senate in order to finally get something, anything done. Granted a conservative here, but unenrolled, as disgust for both organized political parties is what drives a clear vision of what might be wrong in Washington. This fuels a constant infatuation with CSPAN and debates around the nation for the Federal Senate and House seats up for grabs in less than a month. Grab the popcorn and possibly some aspirin as this is not for the impatient, nor those who cannot stand another slogan; especially that darn “war on women”.
Taking a quick look at the races on Real Clear Politics, it appears that the following races are “toss-ups” based on the latest polling: AK: Begich (D), AR: Pryor (D), CO: Udall (D), GA: Open (R), IA: Open (D), KS: Roberts (R), KY: McConnell (R), LA: Landrieu (D), NH: Shaheen (D), NC: Hagan (D) . (Real Clear Politics). The control of the Senate rests on a handful of seats, 6 – which, one might note – is a conservative estimate. Looking at the aforementioned races - and employing some handicapping – on these: Sullivan trumps Begich in AK, in AR - Cotton tops Pryor, in CO – Udall trumps, GA, Perdue, IA, Ernst (that’s by a hair), KS: Orman, (I), LA, Cassidy, in NH, Scott Brown, and in NC, Tillis *Based on last night’s debate.
Therefore, we have 7, plus the 3 open seats in considered safe Republican (MS, SD, WV) and that brings the number to 7 – with 9 Democrat takeover’s – and Udall Safe (so far). The Senate needs to start seriously considering who would fit the bill to undo the damage Harry Reid has done, and to get things moving – at the very least a pretense at work. This will also allow the House, who has passed a slew of bills which have all been denied a vote at the Senate (sitting on Reid’s desk) a chance to either pass or not, depending on merits.
Back to Hagen, The News and Observer notes that neither candidate pulled any punches, however, it also appeared that they could not step away from attacks, one liners aimed at the people who have to choose between the two and figure out which one is more reprehensible – in this opinion that would be Kay – she appears to be earnest until she drags out that War on Women, and BS about having to pass an Equal Pay Act, whereby Tillis actually understands there is already one on the books, signed by one John F. Kennedy in 1963, and it just needs to be enforced. Probably the best place to start would be Washington DC. The Dem’s need new talking points, and the President has supplied the GOP for this election, but they’ll need something new for the next. Otherwise, it is no wonder that anyone with any sense sees this as a chess game of more entitlements vs. less government – and will vote accordingly.
One has to ask, if JFK signed an Equal Pay Act in in 1963 (remarks and information courtesy of University of California at Santa Barbara), why was there a need for others? – Why not enforce the law on the books? Because, women in general, as consumers, and potential voters, are considered a minority, due to what? Sheer numbers suggest that without political division women would rule (literally), therefore, not enforcing certain laws, keeps major political parties in force (equal pay, border security, blah, blah, blah). Did Tillis remind Hagen that this was the case? – Nope, he just stole the President’s line about the agenda this election, and that was, in essence the entire debate. It is a good line, but..as far as debates go..I’ve had better with my Beagle.
About polls, personally they play a part and suggest a lean one way or the other, however, given the man on the street theory, whereby, people have had it across the board, (apparently the improving economy has not trickled down to what used to be the middle class), then bloodbath is the only word on would suggest for the Progressive Democrats this election, and with only 2 years to recover, anyone running on the aforementioned ticket in the general, should have the DNC front the entire bill.
As a betting individual using polls and politics, there is margin of error. For example in 2012 there was no way to convince this individual otherwise that even Mickey Mouse would have been able to ace the presidency under a GOP ticket – however, there was a miscalculation - there had to be a type of candidate in play to get both Tea Party (fiscal conservatives) and Evangelicals (those that believe certain religions are cults and therefore would not vote for say – a Mormon) – the theory by the RNC that no matter who they choose as a candidate would be better and that the base would go along, apparently were wrong. Leading to a gross error in prognostication on my part – go figure.
Monday, October 06, 2014
Media Readies for Inevitable – GOP control of Both Houses of Congress – the back end of Lack of Trust in Government.
A recent AP/GFKpoll suggests that American’s, in general, do not trust the government to keep them “safe”, and or help them out in a crisis. (AP). In reading the polling data, it crosses all party lines, and is pretty damming to the theory that Big Government is better government.
Which leads one to the mid-terms and beyond – the Washington Post (not unlike the New York Times and other media outlets this morning, is suggesting that the Republicans will surely take both Houses of Congress – citing 2006 as an example – the year when the Democrats took control of both house due to Bush unfavorability. (Washington Post)
Yet, somehow that does not cover the magnitude of what may take place this November, even with a lower turnout than expected, one might see what the word Tsunami cannot convey. Noting that the President’s policies are on the board in this election (paraphrasing form one of the many articles on the latest gift from the President to the GOP), the most unimaginable has taken place – the rank and file of the party has gone missing, leaving only the 27-29% of diehard Progressives to carry the banner forward.
Somehow, the two short years between 2014 and 2016 are looking more and more interesting, in that perhaps, for the first time in recent history, the GPO might put forth a candidate that has some actual credibility with their multifaceted base – and should that happen, and it is quite possible given those named (with glaring exceptions – Bush, Romney, and Christie), this would bring the planets of the Congress into alignment for decades. According to Gallup Polling a shocking 76% of the nation believes we are on the wrong track. Given the mix of polling data and reality, the time has come for a revival – especially with the newer, younger GOP who are more concerned with the Constitutional Liberties of all citizens, than the usual Party Lines. One sees a Phoenix rising from the ashes of the past few general elections and the propensity of Candidates trying to blend in with - not differentiate from the other party.
Grab the popcorn, and pop the Champaign should the House gain seats on the GOP side, and the Senate bring in more than the 6 measly seats predicted. That said, should the President start to play ball with the Senate and the House, one might see a different sort of 2016 – one in which both parties become competitive. A man who is not without common sense, would see that a legacy is on the table, and possibly move to the center – in order to get things moving. However, that’s a stretch at this point.