GOP 2012 National - Gingrich Leads, Florida- Romney plus 9, 32% May Change Mind – Romney’s Help from Washington Guard, False Attacks Helping Gingrich.

With latest Polling in FL - 34% subject to changing mind - Anyone's Guess as to the outcome on the 31st - image: skydandingblog


The latest national Gallup polling taken over a rolling period of January 22 -26 shows Newt Gingrich leading Romney by 32 to 24% - with Santorum and Paul Tied at approximately 15 percent each. The latest Florida polling out of Quinnipiac University shows Romney with a 9 point advantage, but – the kicker, 32% may change their mind, and 6% are undecided – welcome to Iowa and South Carolina.

In both instances Romney had been the favorite, only to squeak out a loss in Iowa to Rick Santorum and to get hammered in South Carolina by Newt Gingrich. To date it has been a 4 man race, although Ron Paul has yet to pick up a state “win” – he is picking up delegates in proportional states (Real Clear Politics), with only 4 states weighing in (including Florida) – there’s a long road ahead for the four candidates, and one cannot anticipate any of them dropping out of the race, especially with remaining primaries offering 24 proportional primary/caucuses, rather than “winner” take all delegates. This will allow the primary to play out beyond the usual Beltway’s dream of hurrying up and choosing an nominee – a tactic that did not work out so well in the 2008 election.

The concerted attack on Gingrich by the Old Guard, in support of Mitt Romney’s campaign, has done more damage to Romney than anticipated. The claims have proven to be false, and some, such as Tom Delay, is a former Speaker who left the Speakership with a moniker of “Toxic” (The Sacramento Bee). He has come out “against” Newt Gingrich, along with Bob Dole, former Presidential candidate, and a host of Washington Insiders – the barrage began with headline after headline on the The Drudge Report leading some to believe that Matt Drudge's news aggregate is in “in the tank” for the Republican Old Guard.

Of course, it took only twenty four hours for the facts to come out, noting that the claims made against Gingrich were just a wee bit false. Not unlike Romney’s ad, running in Florida in Spanish, which in Saturday’s Debate, he claimed no knowledge, until the moderator, Wolf Blitzer of CNN played the ad, where it clearly states Romney’s approval. This resulted with the usual Egg on the Face of Romney.

Gingrich, for his part, has been hammered incessantly for everything imaginable by Romney (sans the kitchen sink, but you can be that’s next) and the appearance is – desperation. No matter how one spins it, that’s the way it is playing out nationwide. Gingrich on the other hand, embraces his grandiose themes, and has solid Conservative Credentials that can be proven. He’s not alone on that stage, given his protégé, Rick Santorum’s outstanding performance in the last Florida debate.

Although there are only 3 days left before the Florida contest, with media nationwide (through a January 27th AP release) touting Republican Insiders Rise Up to Cut Newt Gingrich Down to Sizes, the article closes with those rank and file Republican’s choosing Gingrich as they “refused to be bullied” by Washington (The Herald).

What about the Florida debate performances? True, both Romney and Gingrich, from this perspective had back to back horrid debate nights, allowing Santorum to capitalize and win the debates. That said, Gingrich, who was attempting to be “dignified” (interview Fox Greta Van Susteren), came off as somewhat flabbergasted, while Romney hammered home his right to be successful – and specifically centered around the fact that both men had mutual funds which contained stock in the much maligned Freddie Mac and Fannie May. What Gingrich might had pointed out instead was the fact that Romney is surrounded by lobbyists for the same firm - (Daily Caller) which would have been, in this opinion, just as damning for Romney as his help from the Washington Insiders.

That aside, it’s anyone’s ballgame in Florida, and should those 34% of undecideds (or more accurately those who might change their minds) change them for Gingrich or Santorum, Romney may end up third, or second, to a Gingrich or Santorum win – the state, a “winner take all” will award the 50 delegates to the winner, even if it is by one vote.
From there it is off to Nevada, where Washington Logic dictates that Romney will handily win – however, again, that logic so far has won him New Hampshire only, and that is using the same scorched earth campaign tactics- a one out of three record, is not exactly the road to the White House.

The next debate is scheduled for February 26th on CNN, followed by the March debates prior to Super Tuesday: one in GA on the 1st (CNN), and one on the 5th (NBC) at the Reagan Library.

CNN 2012 GOP Florida Debate Winner – Rick Santorum – Paul Strong - Romney, Gingrich Battle – Romney Reality Check on Health Care

Rick Get's His Groove On - Best Personal Debate Performance of the 2012 GOP Contest - image WSJ Blogs

The last debate before the Florida GOP Primary was held last night on CNN – with applause and crowd reaction allowed, unlike the debates held on the non-cable networks. From the beginning of the debate, when Rick Santorum gave the “short introduction” he proudly pointed to the fact that his 93 year old mother was in the audience and lived in Jacksonville – he was on target the balance of the debate, looking the least flustered, the most informed – on both domestic and foreign policy issues. It was, however, a fluff question poised to all candidates by Wolf Blitzer: “Why they felt their wife would make the best first lady” – which would stand to endear Santorum to the crucial women’s vote in the Sunshine State - (paraphrased) – “She’s my hero” - he went on to speak of his wife, in terms of her intellectual accomplishments, personal sacrifices, and dedication to both family and country. (Ron Paul spoke about his wife in the terms of a man who values his partner, and one could tell he was just as pleased as punch that she authored “The Ron Paul Cookbook”, Gingrich was magnanimous in saying anyone of the women would make an excellent First Lady, followed by his obvious pride in Callistas' many accomplishments, especially in the area of the arts, and literature. Finally, Mitt Romney spoke of his wife’s dedication to family, and the illnesses she is faced with, something which, was heartfelt, however, came off as very “John Edwards”.)

After an extended and contentious back and forth between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich over the ads running by PACS in their name as well as ads run directly by the campaign, Santorum stepped to the plate and scolded everyone, speaking to the time spent going over personal attacks, rather than allowing time for serious issues, he appeared at once Presidential and authoritative. He was the most effective in the debate attack, specifically when it came to Mitt Romney and the Massachusetts Health Care Model, which is, as Santorum said, a disaster and a mandate. It was from that point forward; one understood that Santorum had risen to the top of the heap, not from any push by any specific group, but by growth in strength in the debate forum. One could see Newt Gingrich, on more than one occasion, looking at Santorum with pride – it was Gingrich’s teachings and personal aid that brought Santorum to the political arena – and, although, at this point, Gingrich, (who obviously had a less than Gingrich night) remains the best in the debate forum, Santorum is closely on his heels, and if there is a win in Florida, and this is quite possible, it will only serve to make Santorum stronger.

Although CNN noted there was no clear winner in the debate, and suggests that Romney even benefited, it is difficult to buy into that line of reasoning, when one reviews the debate tapes.

Gingrich clearly has an off night, on the defense consistently due to an onslaught of attacks, not only by Mitt Romney’s PAC and Romney himself (of which they play fast and loose with the facts), but by former Washington DC foes, and members of the Elite who fear nothing more than a Gingrich nomination. Although Gingrich’s life is a public record, and the majority (personal life aside) that is absolutely defendable, it is to his credit that he continues to stand strong, given the continuous and most often false assertions made against the Speaker. Nancy Reagan, in an address in the mid-1990’s noted (paraphrased) that Goldwater, (who began the conservative movement,) passed the torch to Ronald Reagan, who then passed the torch to Newt Gingrich – Nancy Reagan would never have been so magnanimous to Gingrich had he not been held in high esteem – her reputation for cutting off ties to those who would speak ill of her husband, is legendary. Therefore, the obvious all-out assault on Gingrich by the Washington Elite, in order to further Mitt Romney, or perhaps Jeb Bush should Romney fail to get the nomination, would have made it difficult for a lesser man to withstand.

Romney was the attack dog, and sounded on the one hand petulant and on the other, consistently angry – as if overcompensating to reassert himself as front-runner, after having won the State of New Hampshire only.

Ron Paul’s performance in the debate has also improved, to the point, where is the most approachable of the candidates, and when one stays very clear of foreign policy (in a Republican debate) he does extremely well, last evening was one of his best performances as well.

Notes: Neither Santorum nor Paul invested in advertising in the Sunshine State, however, the two Debates alone, would have given them enough exposure, plus the grassroots work, to compensate for the negative ads run by both Gingrich and Romney – he is in a better position today to pull a surprise victory in Florida than he was in Iowa, where he was polling slightly lower, and came up within days to take the state from Mitt Romney.
Suggested: Watch the entire debate to gain one’s own perspective rather than the “talking points” offered by those who would form an opinion for each individual (and that includes this blog)

Notes on the debate and GOP race in general

As far as the Hispanic vote will go in Florida and the nation, of the two candidates running, Santorum and Gingrich have the most appeal, regardless of the “endorsements” that any one candidate may make, it is the candidate that speaks to the variety of situations and understands there are clear differences between the Cuban’s, the Puerto Rican’s, the Mexican’s, the Costa Rican’s, the Guatemalans, and so on. Without a well-grounded understanding of each group and the problems faced by each homeland – and a strong emphasis of family and faith- one cannot begin to seriously court this very crucial vote in Florida. Both Gingrich and Santorum appear to be the most heartfelt when it comes to immigration, with the most reasonable approach, as well as foreign policy. American’s of Spanish decent are, for the most part, conservative.

Santorum would be the first Italian-American, Catholic, to become the nominee of the GOP, and in winning the White House, would hold that Distinction. The great Geraldine Ferraro, to date, is the only Italian American to rise to the political height as a nominee in the general election (Vice Presidential Candidate).

On the absurdity of Newt Gingrich’s NASA Plan – Gingrich’s plan for NASA is neither as “crazy” nor a “burden on the taxpayer” as portrayed by his detractors. As bizarre as it may sound to build a colony on the moon, it sounded, in retrospect just as crazy in 1960 when one John F. Kennedy suggested that there would be a man on the moon! What is the twofold immediate result of the concept of NASA in conjunction with Private industry working on such a project: first, jobs, not only in Florida, but when one considers the aero-space industry, one must consider New England, given that from the very large, to the very small “mom and pop” machine shop would be hiring, those hundreds of thousands to millions of jobs, created, from the sciences to technology, would translate into taxpayers. At a proposed tax rate of 15% (just for example) and a government investment of 10% (just for example) it would be a win-win for both the United States, in terms of advancing technology and cutting the deficit while reducing the unemployment rolls, and raising the bar for those students who have no goals. In his outline in Florida, Speaker Gingrich was accused of bang off the wall, and many resent spending one red cent on this type of program, without clearly understanding the ramifications: large program, mostly funded by prevented industry, creates millions of jobs, and increases the revenue, thereby cutting down the deficit, and increasing education and technology. That is the realty; therefore, Gingrich remains, despite the attacks, despite the fear of technology and or misunderstanding by some, the most brilliant guy on the stage. Just to clarify one very salient point he mentioned that if he were elected, this would be something instituted in his second term. Therefore, he was not promising immediate results, rather, giving a sound solution for future job creative in an industry that has continued to deliver since the 1960’ (before if one considers the fledgling program under President Eisenhower.




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Michael Steele: New GOP Entrant “Stupid”, Pollsters Asks The Question, People Answer – It’s That Simple

It’s the same old story, everyone wants a headline, and since there are so many polls, competition is getting tough, especially with a GOP field that is both contentious and solid – add to that mix, a Washington Elite fear of New Gingrich, and one gets the impression that those on the “right” including pollsters, who might take advantage of the situation, plant some doubt across the field and grab a headline. This is especially true of the Rasmussen Reports release yesterdayof a poll where 33% (34%) of “GOP voters say it would be good if new candidate enters the race”. Of course, when someone is asked a question, they tend to give an answer – it’s not a bad question, it’s just an odd question, considering the field began with eight candidate and has winnowed down to four. The problem with the four current candidates is obvious if one is in Washington and wants everything to remain the status quo.

Mitt Romney is imploding by now he should have been the front-runner, everyone said he would be the front-runner, from the pundits to the media, but that circumstance changed when Rick Santorum came out of nowhere to win Iowa by a handful of votes, (Romney at first was declared the winner), Romney won one of his home states (New Hampshire), and then Newt Gingrich, the most feared of all candidates by the same pundits, won by an historical margin in South Carolina. They are now in Florida where it appears the polls are either Romney or Gingrich neck and neck, or Gingrich leading Romney. It is the RNC’s worst nightmare, a candidate that will buck the system, and who is not perfect in the shinny, brand new toy at the age of 60, practically inhuman way one in that arena would expect. Perhaps that’s why Gingrich appeals to most of the electorate (even nationally), to Republican’s to Tea Party Leaner’s, to Independents and yes, to Democrats. Which, if one were rational and not so heavily vested in holding on to some “power”, would consider the perfect candidate?

Understandably, there are those who find the field weak, from the perspective of a Democrat operative, if one doesn’t’ say the most ridiculous things – then one isn’t doing one’s job.
Finally, someone with a bit of knowledge figured out that the four left standing, Paul, Gingrich, Romney and Santorum, are all just fine, and that any one of them (and by that this blog means any one of them) would be able to best the President and take back the White House. That individual may not sit well with country club Republican and pundits, but – in a word – tough.

In a piece by the Daily Caller Michael Steele, former Chair of the RNC, made some pretty smart points – (par usual), one, a late entrant would not be on the ballot in several states, (see Andrea Mitchell and insider knowledge that the Republican Elites will foist whoever they want on the rank and file at a brokered convention), and that the rank and file, would abandon the party if they felt that a candidate was being “foisted” on them.

No kidding, the Romney 24/7 shove down one’s throat coverage, has, if one wants to be realistic, pushed Romney down to a repeat performance of 2008 –which, those elites should have seen that coming – anyone with any sense of logistics understands that to win the White House, one must perform well in the South, and Romney just does not do it. If he somehow manages to squeak out a win in Florida, it is not predictive, due to the fact that a) it’s a big state with a 50% of the population from northern climes, and b) they have lost half their delegates in holding the primary earlier than allowed. Frankly, it might be, at this point, difficult for Romney to win Nevada.

That aside, the fact that the race continues is contrary to the notion that one must wrap it up early, get the nominee that’s approve by the Bush’s and the Coulter’s and the rest of whoever thinks they know better than the rank and file, is also outright stupid. The longer the race goes on, the more attention these nominees get, and if the battle goes on, it readies the eventual nominee for the assault coming from the left. To date, the one candidate that appears the least rattled by attacks and most sane when it comes to answering charges is one Newt Gingrich. Gingrich, by the way, is getting blamed for running ads (his super PAC) against poor Mittens Romney, when Romney’s PAC ads began in Iowa and decimated Gingrich – it’s the same scorched earth policy Romney employed in 2008 and was partially responsible for his campaign imploding by February of that year, and yet, the media ignores Romney and goes after Gingrich as if he were the anti-Christ of Republicans for answering false charges brought by an increasingly desperate Mitt Romney!

Therefore, let the chips fall where they may – for example this blog supports a Gingrich candidacy, for the following reasons: his baggage is old baggage, and it’s all public record, he is the smartest guy in the room, contrary to Matt Drudge and Ann Coulter, he hasn’t had a meltdown as predicted although they continue to try their best to help out Romney. Lastly, he got things done, in every field he choose, a Renaissance man, if one will, that was successful in Congress, until he bucked his own party, and then became so powerful that the Democrats had to trump up charges (all of which were dismissed, and he paid not a fine, but legal fees – he actually reimbursed the government then he fell on the sword and left the office (it is in the public record) Compare to Democrats Charles Rangles and Barney Frank – for how not to behave. Finally, someone who can literally unhinge the country club elitist of the RNC so badly has to be just right. It’s just an opinion of one conservative who has had to hold their nose and vote for candidates that were not perfect, in the sense that they were bound to lose the race – (Dole, McCain, perfect examples – who the Elites wanted versus anyone else who would have been a better choice.) One who wants someone who will turn on both parties when wrong, correct the media, reach across the aisle and get things done, and who's the smartest guy in the room. (This is worth repeating and repeating, and repeating)

Does this mean that if Rick Santorum or Ron Paul becomes the nominee that they will not have full support? Not one bit, however, coming from Massachusetts it may be difficult to cast a vote for the man who drove up the fees on every single service (from the DMV to fishing licenses to dog licenses), put into place a medical plan that drove personal premiums up over 60% in the last 5 years, and well, has positions that are not that much different than the current occupant – that vote may be hard to cast, if not impossible.
A third person entering the race, be it Jeb Bush, or pick anyone, would further drive the likely voter over the edge, and a third party candidate just might end up with a hefty amount of votes in protest.

Therefore, it’s not just stupid, it’s dangerous, as it would split the field and alienate the group that is not: the Beltway elites and pundits.