Mike Huckabee Leader of the Pack - image Politico
, Public Policy Polling, a decidedly left of center polling institute, has, since early January factored that Mike Huckabee, former Govenor of Arkansas, would be the best choice for the GOP Nomination. There analysis was based, not on his polling numbers at the time (which were lower, in some cases than other GOP “contenders”), but rather on how well he would fare against each of those considered competition. This particular Pollster is one to watch, as they have an unusual ability to forecast correctly, and have a fairly solid record. One need only look at the races and analysis for the 2010 election on their website Here publicpolicypolling.com/surveys.asp">, to get a sense of their overall methodology and accuracy.
The Huckabee Factor:
In a poll released on January 21, 2011 Huckabee, in a sample of 512 likely Republican Primary Participants, bested the front runners in double digits. (Republican candidates for President in 2012 used for this survey were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune.) Huckabee leads Romney by a full 10 points, Palin by the same amount, with the balance most in single digits. Only 16% were, at this point, undecided this early in the game. Polling for second choice, (should a preferred candidate fail to run), Huckabee fairs equally well.
In reviewing the marginals, the poll was heavily weighted with those Republican’s who considered themselves conservative at 73%, with 25% moderates, and 3% who consider themselves liberal. Keep in mind these are individuals who historically vote in Republican primaries. This, however, does not indicate the poll was intentionally skewed to a more “conservative” share of voice, given the recent Gallup Polling that indicates Conservaitves ideology among the U.S. Populace, continues to increase, and leads both Moderates and Liberals. In addition, Gallup surveyed Republican’s in particular, and those results, 72 Connectives, 24 Moderate and 3 Liberal, are in concert with the Public Policy Polling methodology In other words, Public Policy Polling was “conservative” (meaning cautious) in their polling schematics.
The firm released as new poll as of the 22nd of January, focused on the State of Texas. Setting the stage – why Texas? Texas, which just increased its clout in the upcoming 2012 presidential race, due to increased population, will experience a gain in Electoral College votes. Texas, in this instance, has gained 4 seats (see 2012 Electoral College map on www.270towin up to 38, making Texas one of the richest in Electoral College votes, only bested by
In the poll released January 22 and taken on the 20th, Huckabee leads President Obama in the Texas by 16 Points – the balance of potential candidates:
Mitt Romney has a respectable 49-42
advantage, and Newt Gingrich a 48-43 lead. But homegrown Perry only matches the
president at 45%, and Palin posts an insignificant 47-46 edge.,
In these polls, marginals reflect the makeup of the electorate in Texas perfectly. One can “follow” Public Policy Polling on either Facebook, Twitter or through a feed reader available on their blog publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com. Given the fact that none of the above mentioned potential candidates has actually “announced” an intention to run (with perhaps the exception of Mitt Romney, and that other potentials such as Mike Pence of Indiana are not included in the polling (Pence is still undecided as to which race to run in: Indiana Govenor or National Race). However, those political junkies will not have long to wait. Huckabee indicated in a recent interview that he will make a decision in June of 2011, which, incidentally, is the same time frame he choose for the 2007 run. Sources in Arkansas, however, do indicate the former 2-1/2 term Govenor from Hope Arkansas, will enter the fray.