Saturday, November 12, 2011
GOP 2012 Poll– McClatchy/Marist: Romney/Gingrich/Cain – What’s in a GOP Poll: 85% Registered Voters, 33% Democrats - Sample 347 Republicans
The GOP Field at Recent Debate: How they Stack up with 347 GOP voters - Marist Poll - image telegraph UK
The Wall Street Journal’s article on the latest GOP 2012 Presidential poll, praises Newt Gingrich for coming in second to Mitt Romney – Cain in this Poll places third, Ron Paul fourth, and the balance in single digits. According to the marginals the Marist poll used only the percentage of Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents to arrive at their conclusions, a sample reduced to 347 possible voters (not all registered). See poll examples below. Therefore, the sample, for a national poll falls short.
This is not to take anything away from Gingrich, who, one can hazard to guess is most likely polling past Romney, given the fact that Romney cannot get out of the 20’s in other polls. Cain came in third, questions for Cain focused on the allegations made by the Gloria Allred client and one other woman who came forward (the other remain anonymous) who’s credibility bears scrutiny. In light of this line of questioning, over 2/3 of respondents do not want Cain out of the race.
It is what is known as a somewhat leading poll. That said, Gingrich is picking up in state polls, passing Romney, and in states where it counts: Iowa and South Carolina specifically.
Therefore this is a made for news poll, rather than a poll to be taken too seriously. What is amazing is that the reporting on polls that contain a) unregistered voters and b) a larger percentage of Democrats than Republicans significantly reducing the sample,(for a Republican GOP poll), is taking place at all.
The polls that truly count: the one’s to which the media are not privy – the campaigns internal polls.
Highlights from this polls release are below – click on image to enlarge
The GOP field
Cain Support at two thirds of sample
Marist the nature of the poll and accuracy
Posted by Tina Hemond at 9:07 AM
CBS News and the National Journal will sponsor a GOP 2012 Debate tonight at 8 PM Eastern. The debate can been seen in its entirety on either www.nationaljournal.com and or www.cbsnews.com. CBS, the network, will broadcast the first sixty minutes of the debate, making way for a series re-run at 9 PM Eastern . It goes without saying that, as one of the three major networks, who operate on the public dime that the debate should be shown in its entirety on an FCC controlled network. Surprisingly, CBS is opting out of the last thirty minutes, forgoing ratings – the GOP debates broadcast to date, have boosted ratings for networks, including C-Span.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Move over Gloria Allred, Cain hires Top Legal Gun – Specialty - Defamation and Libel – On Allegations – Does The Electorate Care? Or Even Know?
Herman Cain wear that Cowboy Hat well (compared to some other politicians - Clint Eastwood Approved GOP Presidential Candidate, Herman Cain
A Reuters article released yesterday and getting little play in the media” Cain defamation lawyer hired to monitor accusations” should have those who would “lynch” Cain in the Court of Public Opinion thinking twice. Cain, throughout his career (which is well documented) and in personal tomes (he’s written a few books) has prided himself on image, specifically that of a man of integrity and one who values his family, specifically his wife, Gloria and their children. Therefore, it is not surprising that this man, who may be a political novice, and may have not pleased the media by the manner in which his political team responded to the allegations of sexual harassment brought by two anonymous and two not-so-anonymous but dubious characters, has hired one of the top layers who would have the wherewithal to get to the so-called bottom of this, determine if there was any intent to slander his client (Cain) and then bring a screaming civil suit.
Frankly, when a man of character is impinged upon, even if a suit took years, and there was sufficient proof that these allegations were patently false, then these women had better find the means to pay damages. The media and those who would see either Cain’s campaign derailed by false allegations/and or those would be more interested in keeping Cain in the spotlight over false allegations, while something else of political import might be taking place (i.e. taking the heat off someone in a position of power – care to guess?) would be responsible for the pickle these ladies will find themselves.
If they are false allegations, and they are brought to court (and it won’t matter the time-frame as far as this is concerned) the smart money would be on a slew of retractions, hazy memory and avoidance of the court, in order to protect oneself from perjury. Good for Cain, he is not only standing up publicly denying the allegations as patently false, the man is being smart – proactive – taking the steps to insure that he, or any other candidate for that matter, will not face baseless allegations for political purposes – again. He has taken the moral high road.
Putting aside that Cain’s actions to date, are to maintain his stellar reputation, does the general public really care, and or do they even know for that matter that allegations have been made?
Dick Morris, who came to the public arena after working diligently to reelect one Bill Clinton, (not once, but several times, from the Governor’s office in Arkansas to the Presidency) and who understands which way the wind blows with polls (such as polls are) also spoke to the Cain allegations in an article on his website www.dickmorris.com
“I learned something important from my polling in the Lewinsky scandal. While the political world and the media were focused on the narrow question of who was right, Clinton or Special Prosecutor Kenneth Starr, most voters opted for a third choice: "We don't care. We don't want to hear more about this. This is no way to run a government or choose a president." Some resented the public discussion of oral sex, noting that their children were watching. They didn't want to hear it.
So it is with the accusations against Herman Cain. We are mired in the worst economic condition in eighty years and will not tolerate more talk about who invited whom up to their room and for what. We don't care….”
Mr. Morris could have taken that a few steps further, only those who are heavily vested in the current process of debate and the general election have even taken notice. When looking at the total population of those who watch the GOP debates, as well as read a newspaper or watch even their local news (past the first 5 minutes when they get a brief synopsis of what took place), or national coverage, it is minuscule in comparison to the rest of the voting public. Take this little test: ask a group of voters (or voter aged individuals) that are not as “avid” a political junkie as oneself might be – and one will find that perhaps one of the ten is even aware of “something they might have heard about Herman Cain”, but cannot remember what it was, and if they have seen Cain, they are, this is priceless, not sure which party he may represent – if they even know who he is – five in ten have no idea. The kicker, making Dick Morris so very right, when told about allegations against Cain, the reaction is the same, so?
Granted this is coming from Massachusetts, however, Cain may owe Bill Clinton a debt of gratitude. Instead of Clinton coming off as a cad (and he did) he came off as some sort of hero, especially to the younger generation, and since the economy was good, well, the rest of his shenanigans did not matter.
Now, Cain is viewed as a novice politician who has not been in Government (huge plus), to those who know of him, yet may not know (because they do not read, nor listen to a news organization due to plain old apathy and times constraints, or mistrust of the media) are hard-pressed to believe the allegations. He may lose a few points in the polls to those conservatives who still follow the hang them in the court of public opinion regardless of the facts, in order to maintain the pristine appearance of the GOP (that ship has sailed, but they are quite unaware). Whoever though this would hurt Cain, may have overplayed a hand or two, in the long run – this primary and the general will be won by those who are savvy enough to do two things. Run opposition ads that are to the point, humorous and on message, without going negative. Advertising that is upbeat and pro job growth, and yes, Reaganesque, will win the day – the ads, even those ads from PACS that candidates can’t control, which go strongly negative, and even perhaps bring up allegations of sexual misconduct, will destroy that candidate – Cain, is the perfect candidate, because he has no dubious government record to defend, however, he has a personal record, and a corporate record which are exemplary – plus a compelling life story.
Regardless of who is the eventual nominee, (there are as of today, in this mind, two possibilities only – Gingrich/Cain as time has run out). Gingrich, to make a point, will be in the exact position as Cain, he has been away from government long enough, to make that distinction and any “dirt” that can be thrown, will be largely ignored (Thank you Bill Clinton), and one can see this becoming a two man race, the day after super Tuesday. The individual, who wins South Carolina, will be the front-runner and most likely stay the front runner, becoming the eventual nominee of the party.
Well Matched Idea Mean who Could Move Mountains and Drive the Beltway Pundits, and GOP Central (and the Obama Team)into a tizzy
Cain and or Gingrich will drive the establishment GOP and the Beltway Pundits into a tizzy (yet another reason one might get attached to either one of these candidates. These two in particular, have a quality that allows for both independents and Democrats, and Tea Party and yes, Republican’s without the proverbial stick up their back (those who cast stones as they are so bloody perfect), to enthusiastically cast a vote for either of these men.
A little historical perspective on the Obama administrations sudden upswing: Although small inroads into improvement in the economy can be seen at this point, the same happened during the final morns of 1979 under the Carter administration, then the bottom fell out, inflation rose, and we were dealing with Iran, in a most passive way – (Iranian ships are said to be in or nearing U.S. international waters (or 14 miles off the coast) – Carter’s job approval ratings were much lower than Obama’s are now, however, Obama, with the exception of a few states, has yet to climb over 50%, staying steady in multiple polls as the man who can be beaten. Should inflation continue to rise, and the summer of 2012 be as disparaging as the past three years have been, then without a third party candidate who is pulled out of David Axelrod’s hat, Obama would be unelectable. Cain and both Gingrich (known by those who have heard him speak, but are not political junkies as: the old smart guy), stand much to gain in that scenario.
The only thing that upset this scenario would be if the Republican Party decided, at its convention, to go to the Super Delegate model (those are not delegates per say, but Party loyalist, Senators, Congressmen) – this happened in 2008, when Hillary Clinton clearly had the popular vote, yet, once at the Convection, the Democrats when to the Super Delegate option, threw out the popular vote, and nominated one Barack Obama (stealing a phrase from Cain: Princess Nancy and her daughter cast the last two votes necessary to insure Obama’s candidacy). One would suggest that this type of action on the part of the GOP would, have serious ramifications for the party and for the nation.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
GOP 2012 CNBC Debate Winners – Gingrich, Cain, Bachmann – Full Video - Latest Florida GOP Poll: Cain, Romney, Gingrich
The CNBC GOP Debate Team - image Telegraph UK
CBNC hosted a GOP debate last evening from Oakland University in Rochester, MI. The debate opened to the introduction of the candidates – applause for Gingrich, Cain, Romney and Paul were an early indicator of the sentiments of the crowd – Romney was expected to do well from one of his home states, however, appeared less on top of his game than normal – Cain was effective on message and delivering crowd pleasing punch lines and Gingrich appeared most presidential –steady and obviously the leader of the debate team. Bachmann remained on message as well and had what was, perhaps, the most blazing and memorable remark of the night’s debate: On Obama: ”I would say that President Obama’s the one that’s wrong because President Obama’s plan for job creation has absolutely nothing to do with the true people that know how to create jobs. He should be going to the job creators if he wants to know how to create jobs. Instead he continues to go to General Axelrod in Chicago to look for his orders to figure out how to deal with the economy”(From CNBC Transcript)
Although after watching multiple debates, allowing only for thirty or sixty second answers and rebuttals, the candidates punch lines may sound a bit tired (putting it kindly), specifically Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan and Romney’s continued denial of the boondoggle that is Massachusetts Commonwealth Care – it goes without saying that candidates must repeat in a matter of seconds their key points – for those who may not have tuned into the last ten debates – however, puts the candidates at risk with hard core political junkies who are constantly seeking something “new” from each candidate. The Presidential debate platform, with the exception of only two that were held so far, is designed for sound bites and opposition research. (See highlights from The Washington Post). The two debates referred to that allowed for more time and interaction between the candidates were CNN’s Tea Party Debate, and the Lincoln Douglas Gingrich Cain Debate hosted by the Texas Tea Party (Video on C-Span and this blog).
What this debate, as all future debates will tell those aficionados’ of the political arena – who is comfortable in the forum, and who stands up to the pressure, not only of the debate but of the events affecting the candidate as well as the nation. From the CNBC Debate, the composure shown by Cain, Gingrich and Bachman and Ron Paul was remarkable – Romney appeared less at ease than in previous debates, Rick Santorum appeared harried as well as Huntsman, and Rick Perry is simply not cut out for public debates. (See Video’s of Texas Gubernatorial debates: example: YouTube, Texas Governors Debate )
The next GOP Debate will be held, for a second time, in the Lincoln Douglas style, on November 19, at 4 to 6 PM from Des Moines Iowa (C-Span will carry this debate). The debate will feature candidates Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum – Mitt Romney has yet to confirm his invitation to this particular forum.
The CNBC video in its entirety appears below.
Cain continues to maintain a lead in the polls – the latest out of Florida by Rasmussen shows Cain leading the field with a familiar spread: Cain 30%, Romney 24%, Gingrich 19%. It goes without saying that Cain’s rise to the top, and the subsequent, multiple allegations which have been leveled at Cain in a growingly apparent attempt at character assassination, are being, for now, brushed aside by the most staunch conservatives (Florida). Two of the detractors remain anonymous, the others, one has a history of multiple complaints at multiple job sites,(AP) and also works for the Obama administration in “communications” and the second and most visible (Gloria’s latest attempt at demeaning the GOP anyway she can), shared an apartment building with the aforementioned David Axelrod and also filed multiple complaints for harassment.
Overall, to date, the top three candidates appear to be holding steady as the political season turns the corner towards Iowa and New Hampshire in a few short weeks – what one can anticipate, (crystal ball here), Romney will do well in his own backyard, which includes the states of NH, Michigan, UT and WY while Cain and Gingrich will pick up the balance. A repeat of the 2008 GOP presidential nomination appears likely, with Romney out by March/April, and either Cain or Gingrich in a battle for first. A Cain Gingrich ticket would serve the nation, putting a non-Washington outsider together with a man who has extensive experience as the Speaker of the House, and enough distance from Washington to stymie detractors. Bachmann would also make a great second, however, from a pragmatic (heartbreakingly so) point of view, would herald a repeat of the media frenzy foisted on Sarah Palin, and although tough as nails, the focus would be on Bachmann as female, rather than as the capable tax attorney, small business owner, and tough legislator. Although we appear to have overcome stereotypes, the incident with Herman Cain proves that the U.S. has not, especially as far as conservatives are concerned, and the media and DNC use this to their full advantage. It is also obvious, that without a third party candidate (be so very wary of this scenario – and look to Massachusetts’ last Gubernatorial election as the proof in the pudding – Axelrod watched with intent for a purpose), a scenario exists where should one surface (say a Democrat who suddenly get’s religion, breaks from his/her party and runs as an independent), the election results will show a 3 to 5 point margin going to the “third party candidate”, making a 1 point lead not only possible but probable for the current Occupant of the White House. The only way in which a third candidate should be taken seriously would be if that candidate was affiliated with a prominent and strong third party. Since the Tea Party is not yet formed (legally) as a third national party, it is doubtful that a candidate emerging to challenge this late in the game is anything more than a Trojan Horse for David Axelrod. (Again, kudos to Bachmann for her remark).
Wednesday, November 09, 2011
Obama New Budget Plan – The Grinch Who Taxed Christmas Trees! New 15 Cent Tax Per Tree This Holiday Season!
Christmas Tree Farm Sign - Obama Tax May Make Breathing a bit more Pricey! Image go new england dot com
Update: Change of heart - Administrations heart grew one half size today: ABC News Reports, there will be a delay in taxing Christmas Trees....
When one considers taxing items, the last item one would tax might be a Christmas Tree – not so for the Obama Administration. From the Department of Agriculture Federal Registry this week:
SUMMARY: This rule establishes an industry-funded promotion, research,
and information program for fresh cut Christmas trees. The Christmas
Tree Promotion, Research, and Information Order (Order) is authorized
under the Commodity Promotion, Research, and Information Act of 1996
(1996 Act). The Order will establish a national Christmas Tree
Promotion Board (Board) comprised of 11 producers and one importer.
Under the Order, producers and importers of fresh cut Christmas trees
will pay an initial assessment of fifteen cents per Christmas tree.
Producers and importers that produce or import less than 500 Christmas
trees annually will be exempt from the assessment. A referendum will be
conducted, among producers and importers, three years after the
collection of assessments begin to determine if Christmas tree
producers and importers favor the continuation of this program.
DATES: Effective November 9, 2011.
Seriously, what one earth is next?
Although the farming and sale of Christmas Trees is a time honored tradition, and there isn’t a person living in the U.S. proper who does not know how to procure a live, or other type of tree (synthetic), it has apparently struck the Federal Government under the Obama Administration that the Tree Farmers (specifically Christmas Trees), need some help from Uncle Sam – They have got to be kidding. Can you imagine what will happen once the Fed's get their hands on that industry too? (See failing Freddie and Fannie, Failing Medicare, Social Security, Failure to Create jobs...) As the Christmas Tree is a byproduct of a celebration of the Christian Christmas, there should be a mechanism in place to halt the madness, something along the separation of Church and State – of course, that’s most likely next on the Obama Plan to Reduce the deficit – a toll charge for those attempting to enter a place of worship!
A treatment of the insanity of it all is available at the ever watchful Heritage Foundation - here
The tax, would be assessed on the farmers, and then, most likely passed onto the consumer. Way to go O! Yes, Virginia, there is a 2012.
2012 Mass Redistricting – 9 Districts – Neal (D-MA2 to MA1), Loses Northampton, Frank (D-MA4) Picks Up West, Loses New Bedford Changes by City
The New Massachusetts Congressional Districts
The New Massachusetts Congressional District Map has been released by the State Legislature, drawn by population (727,514 to 727,515 individuals in each district) – the new districts, surprisingly, almost make sense, regardless of the fact that the 2010 Census Guidelines (Suggestion) that Districts be Drawn by Minority Proportion (see figure below).
The Legislature has yet to vote on the proposed changes. The current make up of ten districts by town can be found here at http:malegislature.gov/District/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitileVIII/Chapter57,Section1 . Overviews of the proposed changes are summed up by Wicked Local/Lexington as follows:
U.S. Rep. William Keating, D-10th, would lose the city where he lives -- Quincy -- landing in turf now represented by U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch, D-9th. He also would lose Weymouth, Abington, Hingham, Cohasset, Scituate and Hull. Keating would gain a new swath of territory to the southeast, including Middleborough, Rochester, Wareham, Marion, Mattapoisett, Fairhaven, Acushnet, New Bedford, Westport, Dartmouth, a chunk of Fall River and Halifax from U.S. Rep. Barney Frank's, D-4th, district, as well as Hanson from Lynch's district.
Lynch would gain territory to the east while losing some of his western turf. He would lose Walpole, Medfield and Needham to Frank. He would pick up Quincy from Keating, along with Weymouth, Abington, Hingham, Cohasset, Scituate and Hull. Lynch would lose his section of Hanson to Keating, while gaining a piece of Raynham from Frank.
Frank's district would lose a major piece of its southern territory, while picking up new areas to the west and north. Frank would pick up Milford, Bellingham and Hopedale from Neal. Frank also would gain Franklin, Wrentham, Plainville, North Attleborough, Rehoboth, Swansea and Somerset from U.S. Rep. Jim McGovern, D-3rd. He would pick up a new portion of Fall River while losing much of the area he now represents in the city, while also losing part of Raynham and all of Middleborough, Rochester, Wareham, Marion, Mattapoisett, Fairhaven, Achushnet, New Bedford, Westport, Dartmouth and Halifax to Keating. Frank would also gain Medfield, Walpole and Needham from Lynch's district.
U.S. Rep. Richard Neal, D-2nd, would pick up a broad swath of the Berkshires and western Massachusetts, while losing much of his territory in the Blackstone Valley and Milford area. He would no longer represent Milford, Hopedale, Mendon, Bellingham, Upton, Northbridge or Uxbridge.
McGovern would see his territory shift significantly to the west and north, losing some of his southern territory. He would pick up Upton, Mendon, a southern portion of Bellingham, Uxbridge and Northbridge from Neal's territory. He would lose Franklin, Medway, Ashland, Holliston, Hopkinton, Southborough, Marlborough and Clinton.
U.S. Rep. Niki Tsongas, D-5th, would gain some new territory to the west. She would pick up Clinton and Marlborough from McGovern. She would lose much of her territory in Sudbury, as well as all of Wayland, Billerica and Tewksbury.
U.S. Rep. John Tierney, D-6th, would maintain most of his territory. He would pick up Tewksbury and Billerica from Tsongas.
U.S. Rep. Ed Markey, D-7th, who currently represents Lexington, would expand some of his territory to the west. He would pick up Wayland and much of Sudbury from Tsongas, as well as Southborough, Ashland and Holliston from McGovern. He also would gain new ground in Cambridge.
U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano's, D-8th, district would stretch south to pick up part of Milton and all of Randolph.
U.S. Rep. John Olver, D-1st, who now represents western Massachusetts, previously announced he plans to retire.
It was the timely retirement of John Olver (D-MA1) which allowed for a much less contentious redistricting process.
The city and town changes (the PDF download is available at http://malegislature.gov/DownloadDocument. Richard Neal, now MA 1 is now Congressional Representative of the following:
Adams, Agawam Town, Alford, Ashfield, Becket, Bernardston, Blandford, Brimfield, Brookfield, Buckland, Charlemont, Charlton, Cheshire. Chester, Chesterfield, Chicopee, Clarksburg, Colrain, Conway, Cummington, Dalton, Dudley, East Brookfield (part) ,East Longmeadow, Easthampton Town, Egremont, Florida, Goshen, Granby, Granville, Great Barrington , Hampden, Hancock , Hawley, Heath, Hinsdale , Holland ,Holyoke, Huntington , Lanesborough , Lee, Lenox , Leyden ,Longmeadow, Ludlow, Middlefield Monroe, Monson,, Monterey , Montgomery , Mount Washington, New Ashford, New Marlborough , North Adams, Otis ,Palmer Town , Peru, Pittsfield, Plainfield ,Richmond, Rowe, Russell, Sandisfield, Savoy , Sheffield, Shelburne, South Hadley, Southampton, Southbridge Town, Southwick MA, Springfield, Stockbridge , Sturbridge , Tolland, Tyringham, Wales, Warren, Washington, West Springfield Town, West Stockbridge, Westfield, Westhampton, Wilbraham , Williamsburg Williamstown Windsor and Worthington
Richard Neal’s loss of Northampton is offset by a pickup of the Hilltowns which are, if possible, more Progressive than most areas of the Commonwealth (think very old hippy) – He maintains large population centers of Springfield and Chicopee and picks up Pittsfield. It remains to see if he will be challenged in the 2012 general. In 2010 there were two GOP candidates that ran against Neal, Dr. Jay Fleitman of Northampton, and Tom Wesley of Hopedale, both candidates now reside in the new District 2, and might find it easier to pick off say McGovern. In 2010 Neal did not easily cruise to re-election, having to call in Bill Clinton and campaign hard against Welsey, who came within twelve points of Neal, with no prior political experience. The District originally was projected as safe Democrat with Neal picking up more than 75% of the total vote. With the main challengers out of the way, so to speak, Neal should rest a little easier, unless of course, a challenge comes out of the hilltowns, from a more Progressive (Socialst) candidate than the current Congressman, which is honestly, hard to fathom.
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
Cain’s “Allred Accuser”, Dubious Background, Statement Raises Questions – Either Bialek Has Photo’s or an Incredible Memory
Gloria and Herman Cain at his Atlanta Announcement - Refined, Beautiful, Supportive - image: thegrio.com
Up until this point, any “Herman Cain Horror Stories” were pretty much eyewash – as they were politically well timed, involved severances of $25,000 to $45,000 (the word clerical pittance applies), and were brought forth again, in a political season – with those accusers remaining anonymous – the theory that putting oneself on a stand and going to jail (perjury) for politics, most likely not appealing.
Apparently, that aspect does not concern the latest accuser brought forth, by book deal icon of the prostitutes, ex-girlfriends and hangers on, one Gloria Allred. The statement released by Allred on behalf of on 59 year old Sharon Bialek is questionable to say the least. Sections of the statement particularly stand out – (see bold and underlined truncated version below)
From the Allred Press Statement via the Chicago Tribune:
“I met Mr. Cain while I was employed at the Educational Foundation of the National Restaurant Association.”
“About a month before I was terminated I interacted with him on several occasions during the five days of the NRA Convention in Chicago. “Mr. Cain sat at a table with me and my boyfriend. He was warm and attentive to both of us and invited us to join him at the after party in a suite at the hotel which we did. I felt very honored to be included in this select gathering. “
“ About a month later I was let go by the Foundation. I was devastated. I loved the job and the industry and in the short time that I had been there I felt that we were doing well in terms of fundraising. My boyfriend suggested that I should reach out to Mr. Cain to see if he might be able to help me find another job with the Foundation or in some other capacity.. He said,: "Herman seemed to think highly of you. Why don't you contact him and see if he can help you find a job?"
My boyfriend booked a room for me at the Capital Hilton Hotel and I called Mr. Cain to let him know my arrival date and that I would be staying at the Capitol Hilton Hotel I asked him where we should meet. He suggested the lobby bar. This was in mid-July, 1997.
He then took me to an Italian Restaurant where we had dinner. During dinner Mr. Cain looked at me and said, "why are you here." I said, "Actually Herman, my boyfriend, whom you met, suggested that I come- He thought that you could help me. I need a job. I was wondering if there is anything available at the state association level or if you could speak to someone at the Foundation on my behalf, perhaps in a different department." He said that he would look into it.
He said that he would show me where the National Restaurant Association offices were and then drove past the offices.
I was wearing a black pleated skirt, a blouse and a suit jacket. He had on a suit jacket without a tie.
Ms. Bialek first states that she worked for the National Association in DC, where she worked for a short time fourteen years ago, she went to a convention with her then boyfriend, both of whom met and sat with Mr. Cain. A month later she lost her job and her boyfriend suggests she ask Mr. Cain for help. Her boyfriend books her at the Hilton, Cain suggests meeting her in a public place – and then offers a tour of the association offices – someplace she was acquainted with? She has a fabulous memory, right down to the details in the pleated skirt. Frankly, not many people recall what they were wearing last week, let alone fourteen years ago. The statement leaves more than a few questions on the table for Ms. Bialek, and it may be true that Cain, (who is releasing a statement today), actually met with the woman, as he had been known to mentor individuals around the country. (Google Herman Cain mentor for personal stories). It has the makings of a fine book and a made for TV movie. It also is another fourteen year old story, but this time with a face.
In reviewing Bialek’s background, Chicago ABC Local left few stones unturned -
The public record on Bialek begins in 1991 when she filed personal bankruptcy for the first time while living in Des Plaines.
Between 1993 and 1996 Bialek worked for four different companies in promotion and marketing positions.
In 1996, and part of 1997, Bialek was at the National Restaurant Association. After being let go from that job in mid-1997, she says that she went to Washington, D.C., to meet with Cain, president of the association, because she needed a job.
In 1999, Bialek's son Nicholas was born and a paternity lawsuit was filed by the father, a media executive.
In 2001 came Bialek's second personal bankruptcy, filed after sizable legal bills. That year she was hired by WGN radio where she worked until 2004 when she took a marketing job and then a job at WCKG radio.
Along the way, according to her attorney, Bialek also held positions with Revlon and Easter Seals.
Apparently, Ms. Bialek had the penchant to spend out of hand, have multiple boyfriends, one of which had filed a paternity suit, which must have cost her a pretty penny as she had to file for bankruptcy a second time, and she obviously cannot hold onto a job for long. Nor is she totally forthcoming: her current fiancé found out about the allegations last week after she had contacted Allred (WREX)
Not for nothing, but this is getting ridiculous, and one can bet the house, that this will not go to trial, but it should. Guilty until proven innocent in this society has gotten to the point where it no longer applies. If Allred is looking for a settlement, or not, perhaps a book deal for her client, this does not go to trial, and Cain will be face with another “he said, she said incident”. These types of allegations, although entertaining, career damaging, and politically damaging, are not against the law, unless and until one is put on the stand and makes them before a jury. Is this woman willing to go before a jury of her peers and tell her “side of the story”? That’s what’s missing from this press releases – I want to take this to trial”. Of course, there would be no basis for a trail; she was not working for the Association at the time, so sexual harassment does not apply. If she had called these alleged advances “sexual assault”, (but he stopped in her story when she said “no!”), an arrest may be out of the question due to the statue of limitations. Therefore, a civil suit might do it – and if Cain or his Campaign, can find a quick venue, put the woman on the stand – The question: would she still take the stand and if fabricating down to the ensemble – perjure herself if the allegations are false? Unlikely – which would vindicate Cain – Even if he brought a suit, would she continue to press the point of Cain as Harasser, or would there suddenly be holes in her memory? Bet on the later.
There are three aspects of these past weeks which are deeply troubling:
1. It’s a given that a black man running for higher office who is also a Conservative, suddenly finds himself charged with sexual misconduct – how very 1950’s and although prejudice abounds, it is not quite the same era.
2. The fact that a public figure, no matter if it is a politician or some dippy Hollywood “starlet” can be dragged through the mud without a shred of defense or ability to defend themselves, based solely on personal testimony is ludicrous - obviously, money trumps, and although the latest Cain accuser insists her allegations are not about the cash – why then did she hire Allred? Anyone in this situation is it political, entertainment, etc., should bring suit civil suit for slander - how many would take the stand and risk perjury? This perverts our system of justice, takes away “guilty until proven innocence” by a virtual trial by press and innuendo.
3. Of course, it takes away from those women who are actually harassed, and are put under pressure to remain silent because of these idiots’ actions.
Regardless of the fact that this blogger believes that Cain is a smart and honest businessman, who has a vision for the nation, and would make an excellent CEO based on the fact that he has had success after success, there are certainly others that would fit the bill as easily, Newt Gingrich for one, even Mitt Romney (if he could make it past the South Carolina primary on a steam roller, which is unlikely in any scenario) – it is a fact, that no matter who the Republican Party nominee is, Conservatives, Libertarians, Tea Party people, Independents and yes, Democrats will hold their nose if not thrilled, and vote for the lesser of two evils. In this climate, even Ron Paul, the Good Doctor, would get the nod over the President, and one can bet the house, there would be 30 or 40 year old malpractice suits surface – and Allred type lawyers ready to hang him in the court of public opinion. Only one problem, it appears not to be working as intended. So what is the left to do? If one thinks that this is not the doing of the left, and those whose sympathies lie in that direction, think again.
It will be interesting to see if Cain handles this latest bimbo (there simply is no other word), as well as he did the other women (who at least were smart enough to decline to perjure themselves) – the campaign muffed the last round of revelations, so herein lays the test.
If this blog were to advise the Cain Campaign, it would be to put Mrs. Cain in the forefront, and let her make a statement. Mrs. Cain appears to be "first lady" material, based on the few times she has publicly been in her husbands company. Let her answer questions - after Cain makes his statement - If it were this bloggers husband, one can bet the house, there would be choice words for those women, specifically if, based on one appearance at Mr. Cain’s announcement. Normally, the role of the candidates’ wife can be wearing, and Cain has undoubtedly done his best to protect her and one can believe that she would be a strong, intelligent woman who would see no point in mincing words. In addition, one does not see Cain the type of man who would “change his wife” to suit his political aspirations. (See Obama Campaign, ensuring that Michelle stayed out of the spotlight for the latter half of the campaign, until she was “remade” in an appropriate image). That would be damage control and should have been done from the onset – Not an interview on some news hour, but a press conference, designed to show a united front and righteous indignation on the part of both husband and wife.
Unless of course she shows up with a cast iron frying pan – then Cain is truly in trouble. For now, these allegations are what they are, ridiculous and damaging, and selfish.
Monday, November 07, 2011
Obama Campaign 2012 – Plans to GO Negative Attacks on Opposition – Gallup: Obama approval holding steady in 40’s – Swing State Indicators - Unelectabl
The President in dangerous poll waters, - going negative may be the final straw - image: Chicago Defender
The Conservative Pollster (as in “careful” not a “political affiliation):Gallup shown the President’s approval rating hanging under 50% by a margin of eight points (as of November 5, 2011), in fact, the President has had a hard time breaking 50% and holding that “high” since March of 2010. This indicates that the electorate, who are said in most media reports to “support the President” – do not, by over 50%. Going into 2012, should schematic remain unchanged, then the President’s chances of reelection remain nil.
Moreover, his national job approval aside , a poll focusing on the key swing states paints a similar story – a USA/Gallup Poll indicates that Obama is losing twelve key swing states to a “generic republican” and statistically tied with Mitt Romney. The twelve states are: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and oddly, New Hampshire. New Hampshire was one of the few New England states that flipped the entire state, from the Governor, to the legislature and Federal offices from Democrat to Republican in 2010.
Gallup USA Today Poll Key Swing States - image USA Todaydotcom - click to enlarge
The States in this poll showing strong to weak Democrat are: Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Illinois, New York, Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Delaware are Rhode Island and HI. The hypothetical map of Electoral College votes shown below indicates that without those fourteen states turning towards Obama in the 2012 general, he will lose the Presidency. That said, state by state approval ratings for the President indicate problems in other states listed as, for lack of better terminology, “safe Democrat”, and in the last state by state match-up of job approval by Gallup only 10 states gave the President an approval over 50% - It goes without saying the word in this analysis by USA today is strongly “hypothetical”. Simply put, it does not add up – specifically when one looks at the satisfaction segment of the poll, focused on those “swing states”, making a sweep of more than ten states overall, highly unlikely. (See graphic from USA Today below)
Overall Satisfaction in "swing states" Low - image from USA Today dot com - click to enlarge
Finally, as if the numbers, as kind as they appear to be, are not enough, Politico is reporting that Obama’s campaign plans to go negative – and he plans to remain “clean” when it attacks opponents. Nice try, when one is speaking to the Occupy base, however, a plethora of negative ads coming out of the Obama Campaign, regardless of how “distanced” the President appears, will, in this atmosphere, lose any remaining independent voters, primarily leaving him with the base (which at this point in time, is not overly thrilled with the man, but would – in a match-up vote party line.). The base, the core Progressive Democrat base, makes up approximately 30% of the electorate on any given day - (based on identifier polling of political ideology and affiliation available at Gallup).
Negative advertising, regardless of party and or intent, from the local to the national stage, does little but attach itself to the unintended party –the individual seen as behind the ad. In the Politico piece, the author describes Obama’s negative style as one of making a “joke” of it, to his base, who responds favorably. That has to be the understatement of the year, and in addition, after looking at the most generous of scenarios (the swing states versus the balance of the data), it also smacks of denial.
Sunday, November 06, 2011
GOP 2012 - Cain-Gingrich Lincoln Douglas Debate Nov 5th Texas – Winner – The General Public - Video and Analysis
Cain with Gingrich - Dishing Up Solid Plans for America - image ABCNews To Go?
If one was fortunate enough to watch CSPAN’s coverage of the Lincoln Douglas style debate between GOP candidates Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich, one was able to understand several key facts: both men have greater substance than one is able to see in the thirty second debate format, both men have solutions that are sound, with the background and context to back them up, and either one of these men would be a fine President of these United States.
The video is available to view on C-span www.c-spanvidoe.org/prgroam/302440-1, and or via a You Tube production by an attendee below – (the program is still as of this time – airing on C-Span).
Although already being bandied about on certain News programs as less than expected (i.e. no punches, swings and or fisticuffs ensued), it allowed the viewer more time to hear each candidates point of view, the fact that there is little variance between the two mens proposals, and they are both amiable, giving facts and figures in such a way as to make a point on economics clear to anyone watching - unfortunately for the networks this does not allow for “network hi-jinks with few sound bites”.
One can be sure if there were other, perhaps less restrained; candidates involved in the discussion (for that is the Lincoln Douglas debates style) then the media would have been satisfied (say a debate between Perry and Romney). However, it is suggested that this type of debate style, set sets the stage for longer answers, rebuttals and or disagreements are discussed, and there is a greater length of time to see the true mettle of the individual candidate.
One can only hope that more of these will be available to the general public. Again, it is unfortunate that the arena that is ABC, NBC, CBS and the Cable Networks FOX, CNN and MSNBC is geared more towards entertainment news rather than actual information when it comes to the debate format.
This particular debate focused on the deficit and entitlement programs and how to deal with both in a sane manner. There is a video produced from an attendee at the back of the room below – therefore one will be able to at least hear the debate is several parts. Finally, there is a reason that Herman Cain is the current frontrunner, and that Newt Gingrich is right behind him – it is because they have the knowledge and understand the issues at hand. One can only hope that programming such as this will be readily available throughout the election process – for one blogger, it would be an opportunity for the public to watch the eventual GOP nominee and President Obama basically free-style their knowledge, plans and ability to talk and chew gum (sans teleprompter) with the opportunity to rebut and respond when a disagreement arose.
In the case of Gingrich and Cain, there was little disagreement – and when one did vary – the questions poised were not aggressive, rather civilized. It is not the most popular, best looking, or for that matter, guy (or gal) that offers the biggest piece of the government pie, it is the man or woman who offers the best solutions and that individual may not be the youngest, or the most interesting of candidates, but the right person for the job. In this case, however, in this debate, one can definitely say with certainly that neither Cain nor Gingrich lack the knowledge, gravitas and or the ability to lead, plus both have a solid sense of humor.
A truncated version of the debate is shown below via YouTube Channel tellmygov Tellmygov This gives a general overview of each point discussed. However, for the full version, and full flavor, one suggests watch the CSPAN video available on that website.
You Tube version: