Friday June 11, 2001 - Harry Reid and Obama - Polls Show Downward Spiral – Fiorina’s Comment on Boxer’s Hair: Press is Shocked!

Harry Reid with Obama - Polls: Public: So Long and Thanks for all the Debt! Photo from votingfemale blog

Harry Reid (D-NV), has every intention of fighting for his Senate Seat, and was hoping the results of the Republican Primary this past week, would aid him in that fight. Reid, who feels somehow that his views are mainstream, was hoping that Angle would be the nominee, and he did get his wish. The problem: new polls out by Rasmussen Reports show Reid trailing Angle by 11 points. The poll results, Angle at 50% and Reid at 39%, should Reid run the negative campaign he is planning, it will in all likelihood widen the gap for Angle. According to the Washington Post Angle is now the DNC’s top target, , however, Reid’s favorability has remained consistently low, and regardless of which opponent he has faced in polling, fell behind by double digits. At this point in the game it is apparent that Nevada is bent on ridding themselves and the nation of Reid. Additionally, the DNC has multiple incumbents in real trouble across the country - it is surprising that they would throw the majority of their weight at a race which, for all intents and purposes, has little hope of having a positive outcome. The DNC should check Vegas odds prior to dropping a dime in any race.

The President is not faring much better, as Gallop polling now shows a 44% overall job approval, the bloom is off the rose. The BP oil spill has the nation fixated; CNN’s has been blaring daily updates. The Coast Guard, is now in charge of the operation. The slow response, despite pleas from contractors and engineers who attempted to meet with the administration and BP officials days after the gulf rig exploded, only add to the aura of incompetence surrounding the administration. Add to Gulf Oil woes, the jobless rate is now seen as permanent bad news fixture. Bloomberg news: “more new claims were filed last week than anticipated”.

Past comparisons to former one-term, peanut-farming President, Jimmy Carter, are now unfair to Carter, who, although equally incompetent in dealing with the economy and international crisis, did not place the nation’s future in as grave a fiscal danger as Obama and his current Congress. Additionally, Carter remained scandal free, whereas, questions concerning offering candidates for office, high profile jobs if they would step aside during primaries, as still making headlines for the Obama administration. The ranking Republican on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, is calling for a Hatch Act investigation. Lest anyone forget, the Blagojevich trial is in place; in recent testimony by Blagojevich aids, it was indicated that there was conversations between the Governor’s office and the Obama camp regarding the barter of Senate seats.

Last but not least: the California Senate Contest has taken a catty turn. In a fashion critique caught on tape, no less, Republican Nominee Carly Fiorina, was heard (on open mic) suggesting sitting Senator and opponent, Barbara Boxer, update her hairstyle. This, has of course, made national headlines, including a Washington Post analysis. The point - who cares – the Press did everything it could to demean Hillary Clinton during the 2008 presidential primaries, specifically attacking her appearance, and followed suit (actually ramped up the rhetoric) a bit when it came to Sarah Palin. Now, when a Republican nominee remarks on her competitions hairstyle, it’s a “big deal”. Apparently this beats covering the next mess over at the White House.

Barney Frank (D-MA) – Speaking to Young Democrats - Mistakes Should Be Rewarded with More Authority – Reminder Frank if Up for Reelection in 2010

From Real Clear Politics:
Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA): "You can reach out to your fellow young people and make it clear to them, that when [sic] they may not be satisfied with everything we've done -- we're not satisfied with everything we've done. The way to cure that is to give us more authority and more ability."

The video below speaks for itself. Barney Frank, who is up for re-election this year, has held the office of 4th District Representative for eons. That said, up until recently (2008) Frank had gone basically unchallenged for his seat. In 2008, Republican Earl Sholley tested the waters in a late entry into the race – losing to Frank by a fairly wide margin. That said Sholley, with zero name recognition at the time, took 70,000 plus votes in the 2008 election in the 4th Massachusetts district, spelling trouble for Frank in 2010.

Frank will face Rachel Brown in the primary, and should he win the primary against Brown, he will go on to campaign against one of two Republican challengers, Sean Bielat, a Marine reservist, and Earl Sholley, who will face off in a primary in September.

For more information on the above referenced candidates:

Democrat
Rachel for Congress.com

Republican
Sean Bielat.org
Sholley for Congress.us

Frank, who has had control over our nation’s finances, specifically mortgage giants Freddie and Fannie should simply retire. (Rumors to that effect have circulated, however, to date; there is no specific confirmation from Frank). The comments made in the video below, speak to the sense of entitlement and the use of chicanery, specifically with the young Democrats, asking them to follow blindly and give Frank one more chance to “get it right”. (To be fair, Frank was speaking, not of himself, but the administration and Democrats in general).

PT Barnum mistakenly attributed quote is applicable here: "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time."

Sharon Angle Takes Nevada Primary – Set to Oust Harry Reid – Women Dominate from Arkansas to California

Sharron Angle will take on Reid in Nevada - image Examiner.com

In May of 2009, Sharron Angle formed an exploratory Committee for the State of Nevada Seat held by Harry Reid. - yesterday Ms. Angle won a three way contest to become the Republican candidate in Nevada. Engle, who is an anti-tax conservative, will face incumbent Harry Reid, the current Senate Majority Speaker in November. Reid has noted that he is pleased it is Angle he must face which appears to be false bravado, given Reid's popularity is close to House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi’s. Apparently, Reid plans to capitalize on Ms. Angles “extreme views” on taxes, adhering to the U.S. Constitution, and eliminating bloated, dysfunctional and irrelevant bureaucracies within the Federal Government. Reid plans to go heavy on the attack ads, according to the Las Vegas Sun: “On Tuesday, Reid’s advisers telegraphed their coming campaign, saying Angle’s “dangerous ideas are wrong for Nevada.” Once her victory was apparent, the Nevada Democratic Party issued a news release: “Sharron’s ‘Wacky’ Angles: Dangerous Ideas Nevada Can’t Afford.”

It’s all about the “Tea Party” – Angle who has embraced the Tea Party philosophy of less government, fewer taxes, self-reliance and a healthy respect of the Constitution from the beginning, does have some interesting ideas about how to cut waste and spending. That said, how Ms. Angle’s views may seem right at home, when compared to Reid’s mono-rail plans, or the fact that Nevada is faced with some of the nation’s highest foreclosures as well as unemployment. For this reason alone, Angle is seen by Reid as an easy target (and the media and pundits are following suit). Angle has the endorsement of the Club for Growth, which is a fiscal conservative organization, and the Tea Party has a strong base in Nevada. Counting the Tea Party candidate out before the race begins is a bit naive on anyone’s part. Reid, at this point, is going the road of Tom Daschle – one can, this being a Nevada race, bet the House on that one – Reid’s proposed Negative advertising should work well for Angle. (See how well that worked for Coakley in Massachusetts.) As the economy shows no signs of improving in the near future (See the possibility of a double-dip recession, which will herald double digit inflation (already taking place when one looks at fuel and food – See late 1970’s and Jimmy Carter) , the Nevada battle should be interesting to say the least.
To learn more about Angle visit: SharronAngle.com

Over in Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln won the Democrat primary, proving that the extreme views of organized labor and Move-on.org are somewhat marginalized outside of the White House. (Pay attention here, Senator Reid). It was a race where either candidate stands to lose in November against Republican, John Boozman . The latest polling has had Boozman leading either Lincoln or the rejected Halter by double digits. Lincoln was supported by former Arkansas native son, President Bill Clinton, while Halter enjoyed the endorsement of the SEIU and again, Move-on.org, otherwise known as the George Soros Foundation. The deep rift in the Democrat Party (Socialists – i.e. Progressives – versus – mainstream viewpoint Democrats) is showing itself across the nation. See the recent special election in PA-12th, where the Democrat ran on Republican Issues, distancing himself as much as possible from the White House).

In California both Meg Witman and Carly Fiorina won their respective primaries. Fiorina will face embattled incumbent Barbara Boxer - as headlined in the Chronicle articles Fiorina Poised to Make History.

It is good to be a Conservative Woman, (including Blue Dog Blanche Lincoln, who just happens to be on the wrong side of the aisle in the upcoming election.)

Note to former Goldwater Girl, Hillary Clinton, the road to 2012 is paved in history.

Massachusetts Governors Polls Suffolk University – Although Patrick Leads, over One-Third Undecided - Analysis

Although it’s still early in the game in the three-way contest for the Massachusetts Governor’s race, polling indicates that Deval Patrick’s fortunes are on the rise, that is until one checks the marginals – at that point this race appears to be wide open. (Marginal are the percentage of participants, the demographics and the willingness to answer or knowledge of a candidate.)
In reviewing the data from the May 26th pollone finds Patrick’s lead in the 41st question of the survey, which asks the question: "Regardless of who you are personally supporting for Governor - when all The votes are counted this fall, who do you believe will be elected Governor
on November 2nd - Deval Patrick, Charlie Baker, Tim Cahill, or Jill Stein {
STYNE}?"


Patrick takes the lead with 48%, Charlie Baker 20%, Timothy Cahill at 9% with 21% of the respondents undecided. It is the undecided respondents or those who flatly refuse to answer that skew the poll in Patrick’s favor, and by a margin that ranges on all relevant (to this article) questions from 21% to 34%.

In the question regarding Baker’s favorability, the GOP candidate received only a 20% positive rating, however, 31% of respondents “never heard” of the candidate and 32% have yet to decide. That is 63% of respondents either never hearing of or undecided at this point. In other words, a huge margin.

In a question regarding Scott Brown’s favorability, 57% respond in the positive, with 3% never heard and 17% undecided.

What is in Baker's favor?

52% feel Massachusetts is headed in the wrong direction.
49% feel Massachusetts economy is not improving
(The latter two having negligible undecideds)

Question 10 – Does Deval Patrick deserve to be re-elected? With 11% undecided, 55% of respondents feel the Governor should seek employment elsewhere.

In the following question, Patrick somehow manages to pull a much improved job ranking at 42% approval.

The kicker: Question 21: “Which of the four reminds you most of Scott Brown?”, Baker receives 26%, with the balance of the candidates shown in single digits and a stunning 56% are undecided.

What this poll suggests is that although Deval Patrick, on paper, appears to be doing well, as Baker gains more recognition, those numbers will become competitive. Should Baker’s media team run a Brown style messaging campaign (sooner would be better, whoever, in the most likely case, it would be in the final months of the campaign), (positive), It is probable that Baker will take a Brown-type lead in the final weeks of the campaign (conservatively speaking).

In the questions regarding the negative Cahill ads run by the Republican Governors Association: it appears that the ad did little to either help or hurt Baker, that said, negative campaign ads, in general in Massachusetts , spell big problems for candidates – if, and only if, they are endorsed by that candidate. To refresh: ads run by the Healy campaign, and ads run by the Coakley campaign did more harm to the candidate than any other factor.

The fact that 63% of the respondents have not heard of Charlie Baker or are undecided, speaks to the early nature of the game. As Baker becomes more visible, one can expect an increase in favorability in the subsequent polling.

Democrats Counseled To Avoid Direct Contact with Constituents Going Into the 2010 Midterms - Fear and Loathing of Democrats trumps Courage

TheNew York Times ran an interesting piece on yesterday on incumbent Democrats and Town Hall Meetings – apparently, most Democrats won’t be holding any meetings this summer where they may run into too many constituents. According to the article, there are 255 Democrats who spent last week in their home districts, most of which attended closed “meet and greets” with “party leaders” advising them to hold events in “controlled settings”. Apparently, the party that promoted dissent when the proverbial shoe was on the other foot prefers to stifle dissent if it is aimed in the direction of an incumbent Democrat.
One is reminded of the old Ostrich with its head stuck in the sand, the premise, if one can’t see the danger it does not exist. That strategy may work as far as keeping those incumbents from the reality of the looming November elections.

Massachusetts, which was known as the “bluest state” when it came to all levels of government is experiencing shocking change. The Massachusetts Democrat Convention, held in Worcester this past weekend, attracted 3,500 attendees, or shockingly only 400 more than those attending the Massachusetts Republican Convention held in April.(source: Boston Globe). In addition, the Republican Party in Massachusetts has 37 out of 175 state and federal candidates, vying for nine of the 10 Congressional Seats in Mass. It will be the first time many of the Democrat Incumbents have had to actually campaign for their seats, and true to form, they are not sticking their necks out to meet with the general public. In addition, the Globe article reporting on the number of Republican Challengers, noted that:

“The nonpartisan Cook Political Report considers nine of the state’s 10 congressional seats “solid D’’ in its most recent round-up, updated May 24. Only Delahunt’s former seat is labeled a toss-up.”

One problem with the Cook Political Report’s analysis is that the designation of “solid D” is based on past performance and district makeup – that was then, this is now. Polling the voting public might produce a different scenario, and with the sudden interest in constitutions reported on by local district newspapers, by near invisible Congressional Representatives such as Richard Neal, Barney Frank and every representative with the exception of Capuano (who is unchallenged), one can bet there have been internal polls telling them there is a problem in River City. As September and the primary challenges are past (some Representatives such as Barney Frank, face competition from within their own party as well as from the Republican Party), the heat in the kitchen is going to increase. At that point, as it was with the Scott Brown/Martha Coakley Race, one will most likely see national polling take place when it becomes glaringly apparent that all is not well for the Democrats in the State of Massachusetts. Polling on the Brown/Coakley special election was not even a national consideration until three weeks prior to the polls, when Rasmussen jumped in and blew a hole in the Boston Globe Poll giving Coakley a 15 point lead. This was followed by polling from Public Policy Polling, which confirmed Brown was neither down nor out - and still, both the Boston Globe and the Democrats continued to believe - until Brown's 5 point lead held steady from the morning till the final precinct reported.

Massachusetts is not an anomaly, with all fifty states in play, in both the House and the Senate, as the administration with a Congress in concert, leads the nation further into debt, while the unemployment figures continue to trend near 10%, with only a point or two variance from month to month. In the last report for the month of May, only 41,000 private sector jobs were created, versus the 400,000 public sector jobs. The nation may not score the highest globally in math and science scores, but it does not take a genius to conclude that 41,000 private sector jobs cannot, in taxes, support 400,000 public sector jobs – ergo, the nation must go deeper in debt.

It is the anxiety that is present and the fear of the current administration and its congressional minions, being unable to fix the problem, (or the gulf oil crisis, which is now being counted in days, reminiscent of the Carter Iran crisis) that is going to translate into a changed political field in 2010 and going forward into 2012. Perhaps it was right to counsel those incumbents to avoid reality, at least for the time being.

Addendum:

Charlie Cook of the Cook Report has taken the time to correct the characterization of the Cook Report's Congressional Surveys used in this blog: Noted: The house editor, David Wasserman, analyzes all of the Congressional races, in fact, there were 25 races rated and updated since April 15th. The individual race analysis is by subscription only. The opinion formed by this blog was based on the “free” information available to the general public. This is not to say that this blog agrees with Mr. Wasserman’s analysis of the Massachusetts Congressional races.