Massachusetts Governors Polls Suffolk University – Although Patrick Leads, over One-Third Undecided - Analysis

Although it’s still early in the game in the three-way contest for the Massachusetts Governor’s race, polling indicates that Deval Patrick’s fortunes are on the rise, that is until one checks the marginals – at that point this race appears to be wide open. (Marginal are the percentage of participants, the demographics and the willingness to answer or knowledge of a candidate.)
In reviewing the data from the May 26th pollone finds Patrick’s lead in the 41st question of the survey, which asks the question: "Regardless of who you are personally supporting for Governor - when all The votes are counted this fall, who do you believe will be elected Governor
on November 2nd - Deval Patrick, Charlie Baker, Tim Cahill, or Jill Stein {
STYNE}?"


Patrick takes the lead with 48%, Charlie Baker 20%, Timothy Cahill at 9% with 21% of the respondents undecided. It is the undecided respondents or those who flatly refuse to answer that skew the poll in Patrick’s favor, and by a margin that ranges on all relevant (to this article) questions from 21% to 34%.

In the question regarding Baker’s favorability, the GOP candidate received only a 20% positive rating, however, 31% of respondents “never heard” of the candidate and 32% have yet to decide. That is 63% of respondents either never hearing of or undecided at this point. In other words, a huge margin.

In a question regarding Scott Brown’s favorability, 57% respond in the positive, with 3% never heard and 17% undecided.

What is in Baker's favor?

52% feel Massachusetts is headed in the wrong direction.
49% feel Massachusetts economy is not improving
(The latter two having negligible undecideds)

Question 10 – Does Deval Patrick deserve to be re-elected? With 11% undecided, 55% of respondents feel the Governor should seek employment elsewhere.

In the following question, Patrick somehow manages to pull a much improved job ranking at 42% approval.

The kicker: Question 21: “Which of the four reminds you most of Scott Brown?”, Baker receives 26%, with the balance of the candidates shown in single digits and a stunning 56% are undecided.

What this poll suggests is that although Deval Patrick, on paper, appears to be doing well, as Baker gains more recognition, those numbers will become competitive. Should Baker’s media team run a Brown style messaging campaign (sooner would be better, whoever, in the most likely case, it would be in the final months of the campaign), (positive), It is probable that Baker will take a Brown-type lead in the final weeks of the campaign (conservatively speaking).

In the questions regarding the negative Cahill ads run by the Republican Governors Association: it appears that the ad did little to either help or hurt Baker, that said, negative campaign ads, in general in Massachusetts , spell big problems for candidates – if, and only if, they are endorsed by that candidate. To refresh: ads run by the Healy campaign, and ads run by the Coakley campaign did more harm to the candidate than any other factor.

The fact that 63% of the respondents have not heard of Charlie Baker or are undecided, speaks to the early nature of the game. As Baker becomes more visible, one can expect an increase in favorability in the subsequent polling.