Friday, September 19, 2014

Scott Brown Leads Shaheen in new Polling – Significant Jump – Rove rants about Funding and potential Senate Loss

Two for one that are somewhat connected.

A vox populi polling released a new poll showing Scott Brown besting the incumbent by favorable numbers Although the polling firm is a Republican grounded firm (as in employees), they have a fairly decent tract record so far as calling a race. They had Eric Cantor in trouble prior to his significant loss to a man who had no money.

Which brings us to Karl Rove’s dire predictions on the Senate race published in the Wall Street Journal. Rove warns that the GOP is at a distinct cash advantage and Democrats are buying airtime over Republicans in key states.(WSJ)

One might be concerned if, those showing up at the polls were fewer and angrier than in most general elections. Additionally, between now and November, there is significant time for trends to change. That said, most of the nation does not know who to blame, but Congress. According to a new poll, most of those believe that Congress is controlled by Democrats! (Rasmussen) Add that to the President’s approval ratings, and one might think looking for six measly seats, may turn into find 12.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Washington Post “Poll” Dems’ at 51% of Senate Control – Wishful Thinking

From The Washington Post, Fix Blog, reveals that there is a slight chance that the Democrats may retain control of the Senate, however, the poll, such as it is, relies on data sets from the Post’s Internal Lab.

The Washington Posts Election Lab suggests the following criteria using New Hampshire as an example: the State of New Hampshire has a 99% chance of remaining Democrat due to the following statistics: Jean Shaheen has raised over $9 million dollars and her share of vote the last election (2012) was at 53%, while Scott Brown has a measly 3 million, and to boot, Obama won reelection in that state by – 53%. (Washington Post Senate Map Interactive click here and have fun.)

One might suggest that although Shaheen safely sailed on the 2012 election coattails and Obama was popular in the state at the time, that no matter how much cash on hand one might have, it may not be enough to push one to say, a win.

One might also suggest that the other seats noted “safe” using these criteria, may be in more jeopardy than the Post would hope. Thus one might also suggest this “lab”, or “poll” is utter nonsense. Although not prone to predicting the future with much accuracy – there are certain models that maybe more reliable, such as actual polls, with at least a modicum of accuracy when using land lines and a decent sample of the electorate.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

2016 Update: Rand Paul – Washington Post “Profiles”, Politico Rand Leads Pack – but..Paul, the Current Threat to the Status Quo

The Washington Post article: Shifting his views Rand Paul Seeks Broader Appeal but May Risk his outsider Image” is an interesting piece, in so much that it relies on articles, his legislation, and of course, those surrounding him, in order to come up with a profile of a “politician”. What is most telling in this article however is the description of Paul by these same sources:

“He’s been characterized as an isolationist,” said Rob Givens, a retired Air Force general living in Kentucky, who has become one of Paul’s advisers on foreign affairs. “He’s not. He’s a realist.”

“I think that Rand has a picture of what a utopia would look like,” the friend added. “And he’s very realistic about how long it would take to get there.”

So what is that utopia, in Paul’s mind? His friend said it would look like 1792, with the government that existed just after the Constitution was ratified.

“You’d have a smaller federal government, where the presidency is probably the weakest branch; you’d have a robust Congress, led by the House of Representatives,” the friend said. “You’d probably have a heck of a lot less taxes.”

(Read full article at here at

The fact that in trying to define Paul as to who he is, politically, they have found that as he looks to larger responsibility, on a national rather than state scale, that he is pragmatic about his approach, looking at a situation in total, and then swiftly coming to a decision as to where he may or may not stand – it’s call evaluating and reevaluating in the real world. Paul, a doctor, may live in the real world, more than say, a politician who has spent their lives climbing up the ladder, having never been outside of the city council, state legislature, federal legislature, et al. Therefore, the flip-flop tag might not apply to Paul, as it would to say a “John Kerry”. Paul, rather than appearing to be a political opportunist, appears to be a man of prudence, much like a George Washington, Calvin Coolidge, or yes, Ronald Reagan. Therefore, try and they might, (media in general), those drawing conclusions, tend to run up against the brick wall of reality when it comes to defining the indefinable – a non-politician-politician.

Although it is too early to place bets on a 2016 primary let along the general election as the actual players are not known. Paul is leading in the polls in New Hampshire, by 5 points, which considering that the field consists of every known GOP except the deceased, that’s a win. The article by Politico is quick to point out that there are so many in the field, a win’s a moot point. Had the poll, not unlike early polling that pitted Hillary Clinton (only) against three or four GOP contenders, it may have been a much broader win for Paul. That said the polls that will be of most interest in the first of the nation primary state will come after the November’s midterm elections. Should Paul maintain an edge once other hopefuls have their boots on the ground, then, that pragmatic approach will have paid off. It is a matter of question whether the nation is looking for the next best shiny toy, or someone willing to take on the current mess and attempt to right a sinking ship, in a pragmatic yet decisive manner.

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