Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Washington Post “Poll” Dems’ at 51% of Senate Control – Wishful Thinking

From The Washington Post, Fix Blog, reveals that there is a slight chance that the Democrats may retain control of the Senate, however, the poll, such as it is, relies on data sets from the Post’s Internal Lab.

The Washington Posts Election Lab suggests the following criteria using New Hampshire as an example: the State of New Hampshire has a 99% chance of remaining Democrat due to the following statistics: Jean Shaheen has raised over $9 million dollars and her share of vote the last election (2012) was at 53%, while Scott Brown has a measly 3 million, and to boot, Obama won reelection in that state by – 53%. (Washington Post Senate Map Interactive click here and have fun.)

One might suggest that although Shaheen safely sailed on the 2012 election coattails and Obama was popular in the state at the time, that no matter how much cash on hand one might have, it may not be enough to push one to say, a win.

One might also suggest that the other seats noted “safe” using these criteria, may be in more jeopardy than the Post would hope. Thus one might also suggest this “lab”, or “poll” is utter nonsense. Although not prone to predicting the future with much accuracy – there are certain models that maybe more reliable, such as actual polls, with at least a modicum of accuracy when using land lines and a decent sample of the electorate.

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