Friday, January 02, 2015

Rick Perry -2016 – What are the odds? Both fields (DNC/GOP) too early to place any bets!

In reading a recent Texas Tribune article reposted by the New York Times one learns, if nothing else, that Rick Perry, the longest serving Governor in the State’s history, is politically astute. This is in stark contrast to the 2012 debate forum where Perry, in pain from a recent surgery, completely forgot the answer to a debate question. It was the end of his campaign, but obviously, not the end of Perry.

He maybe more popular now, than previously, and as all in the company of the not yet announced, is a wild horse. In the GOP possible at the moment, there is no way of telling who maybe the real front runner once the dust settles and the announcements have been made as to who is actually in the race.

Given the nature of the RNC one would imagine that the Jeb Bush push is on, but the odds of Bush making it through the primary is slim at best. This leaves an interesting group of individuals who bring Reaganesque properties to the table – Paul, Perry and Cruz for starters, should, again, any of them actually announce.

On the Democrat side – we are assured Hillary Clinton may run away with the nomination (see Clinton-Bush II) however, there are others who are seriously considering jumping in. An NBC Article Democrats eyeing a Clinton challenge get icy reception” gives us Jim Web (VA Senate), Martin O’Malley (Maryland Governor) and Bernie Sanders – Senator from Vermont. Apparently, the donors aren’t lining up for them according to NCB. That said, donors aside, Sanders does resonate with the base, and one has to like Sanders for being upfront about what he stands for. That’s unlike a lot of other options not yet set on the table. Long shot perhaps, but the base likes him.

What one has to factor is which one of the abovementioned truly has crossover appeal – one that would garner support from the right, the left and the center – two come to mind and neither are the proverbial early “frontrunners”.

Monday, December 29, 2014

The CNN Jeb Bush Poll – Interesting mix of politicians and samples.

The CNN Poll released this past week has a bit of an interesting mix, considering a majority of those being proffered as choices are most likely not running. The marginals here in pdf offer some insight as to who was polled: 1011 adults via landlines and cell phones with the following political affiliations: 28% polled as Democrats, 50% as Independents and 22% as Republicans. Further, the sample for Republicans included: 244 Republicans and 209 who described themselves as Independents leaning Republican. On the Democrat side 299 Democrats and 170 Independents. Further, the Republicans chose from among the following: Bush, Christie, Carson, Huckabee, Paul, Rubio, Ryan, Cruz, Jindal, Perry, Walker, Kasich, Santorum, Pence, Portman, Someone else and None, No one. Some and no one and no opinion garnered 13%.

On the Democrat side of the equation: Clinton, Warren, Biden, Sanders, Cuomo, O’Malley, Webb and Patrick made up the entire field. Someone else, None/No one and no opinion garnered 10% of the vote.

With Clinton and Bush leading, this tell us that the CNN poll offered a small sample of both Democrats and Republicans and those who are not yet sure which way the wind will blow in 2016 but name recognition trumps . Also a question asked both sides about the most important quality resulted in equally winning answers from both Democrats and Republicans – the one who was most likely to beat the Republican or Democrat.

As most of those who fell outside of the Dynasty lexicon, will most likely never put a hat in the ring, the most likely of primary participants (crystal ball here), on the GOP side, will be: Bush, Perry, Santorum, Paul, and pick one or at most two others. On the Democrat side, one can bet that Sanders, O’Malley and possibly Biden will get involved in this race.

In any event, too early to tell. Early front-runners based on those who have not yet announced, are pretty much, just that, a front runner in a “crowded” field of individuals how may or may not run for the office. Once April rolls around and announcements are in – then the polls will start to take shape. Once primary participants are included in those polls, the front-runners will be anyone’s guess.

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