Monday, December 29, 2014

The CNN Jeb Bush Poll – Interesting mix of politicians and samples.

The CNN Poll released this past week has a bit of an interesting mix, considering a majority of those being proffered as choices are most likely not running. The marginals here in pdf offer some insight as to who was polled: 1011 adults via landlines and cell phones with the following political affiliations: 28% polled as Democrats, 50% as Independents and 22% as Republicans. Further, the sample for Republicans included: 244 Republicans and 209 who described themselves as Independents leaning Republican. On the Democrat side 299 Democrats and 170 Independents. Further, the Republicans chose from among the following: Bush, Christie, Carson, Huckabee, Paul, Rubio, Ryan, Cruz, Jindal, Perry, Walker, Kasich, Santorum, Pence, Portman, Someone else and None, No one. Some and no one and no opinion garnered 13%.

On the Democrat side of the equation: Clinton, Warren, Biden, Sanders, Cuomo, O’Malley, Webb and Patrick made up the entire field. Someone else, None/No one and no opinion garnered 10% of the vote.

With Clinton and Bush leading, this tell us that the CNN poll offered a small sample of both Democrats and Republicans and those who are not yet sure which way the wind will blow in 2016 but name recognition trumps . Also a question asked both sides about the most important quality resulted in equally winning answers from both Democrats and Republicans – the one who was most likely to beat the Republican or Democrat.

As most of those who fell outside of the Dynasty lexicon, will most likely never put a hat in the ring, the most likely of primary participants (crystal ball here), on the GOP side, will be: Bush, Perry, Santorum, Paul, and pick one or at most two others. On the Democrat side, one can bet that Sanders, O’Malley and possibly Biden will get involved in this race.

In any event, too early to tell. Early front-runners based on those who have not yet announced, are pretty much, just that, a front runner in a “crowded” field of individuals how may or may not run for the office. Once April rolls around and announcements are in – then the polls will start to take shape. Once primary participants are included in those polls, the front-runners will be anyone’s guess.

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