Democrats Counseled To Avoid Direct Contact with Constituents Going Into the 2010 Midterms - Fear and Loathing of Democrats trumps Courage

TheNew York Times ran an interesting piece on yesterday on incumbent Democrats and Town Hall Meetings – apparently, most Democrats won’t be holding any meetings this summer where they may run into too many constituents. According to the article, there are 255 Democrats who spent last week in their home districts, most of which attended closed “meet and greets” with “party leaders” advising them to hold events in “controlled settings”. Apparently, the party that promoted dissent when the proverbial shoe was on the other foot prefers to stifle dissent if it is aimed in the direction of an incumbent Democrat.
One is reminded of the old Ostrich with its head stuck in the sand, the premise, if one can’t see the danger it does not exist. That strategy may work as far as keeping those incumbents from the reality of the looming November elections.

Massachusetts, which was known as the “bluest state” when it came to all levels of government is experiencing shocking change. The Massachusetts Democrat Convention, held in Worcester this past weekend, attracted 3,500 attendees, or shockingly only 400 more than those attending the Massachusetts Republican Convention held in April.(source: Boston Globe). In addition, the Republican Party in Massachusetts has 37 out of 175 state and federal candidates, vying for nine of the 10 Congressional Seats in Mass. It will be the first time many of the Democrat Incumbents have had to actually campaign for their seats, and true to form, they are not sticking their necks out to meet with the general public. In addition, the Globe article reporting on the number of Republican Challengers, noted that:

“The nonpartisan Cook Political Report considers nine of the state’s 10 congressional seats “solid D’’ in its most recent round-up, updated May 24. Only Delahunt’s former seat is labeled a toss-up.”

One problem with the Cook Political Report’s analysis is that the designation of “solid D” is based on past performance and district makeup – that was then, this is now. Polling the voting public might produce a different scenario, and with the sudden interest in constitutions reported on by local district newspapers, by near invisible Congressional Representatives such as Richard Neal, Barney Frank and every representative with the exception of Capuano (who is unchallenged), one can bet there have been internal polls telling them there is a problem in River City. As September and the primary challenges are past (some Representatives such as Barney Frank, face competition from within their own party as well as from the Republican Party), the heat in the kitchen is going to increase. At that point, as it was with the Scott Brown/Martha Coakley Race, one will most likely see national polling take place when it becomes glaringly apparent that all is not well for the Democrats in the State of Massachusetts. Polling on the Brown/Coakley special election was not even a national consideration until three weeks prior to the polls, when Rasmussen jumped in and blew a hole in the Boston Globe Poll giving Coakley a 15 point lead. This was followed by polling from Public Policy Polling, which confirmed Brown was neither down nor out - and still, both the Boston Globe and the Democrats continued to believe - until Brown's 5 point lead held steady from the morning till the final precinct reported.

Massachusetts is not an anomaly, with all fifty states in play, in both the House and the Senate, as the administration with a Congress in concert, leads the nation further into debt, while the unemployment figures continue to trend near 10%, with only a point or two variance from month to month. In the last report for the month of May, only 41,000 private sector jobs were created, versus the 400,000 public sector jobs. The nation may not score the highest globally in math and science scores, but it does not take a genius to conclude that 41,000 private sector jobs cannot, in taxes, support 400,000 public sector jobs – ergo, the nation must go deeper in debt.

It is the anxiety that is present and the fear of the current administration and its congressional minions, being unable to fix the problem, (or the gulf oil crisis, which is now being counted in days, reminiscent of the Carter Iran crisis) that is going to translate into a changed political field in 2010 and going forward into 2012. Perhaps it was right to counsel those incumbents to avoid reality, at least for the time being.

Addendum:

Charlie Cook of the Cook Report has taken the time to correct the characterization of the Cook Report's Congressional Surveys used in this blog: Noted: The house editor, David Wasserman, analyzes all of the Congressional races, in fact, there were 25 races rated and updated since April 15th. The individual race analysis is by subscription only. The opinion formed by this blog was based on the “free” information available to the general public. This is not to say that this blog agrees with Mr. Wasserman’s analysis of the Massachusetts Congressional races.

Charles Baker – GOP Nominates the Strongest Candidate for Mass Govenor in Decades – Mihos States the Better Man Won

Charlie Baker, Candidate for Governor of Massachusetts - image Masslive

The Massachusetts State GOP held its convention this past Saturday in Worcester, MA - a convention that was palpably enthusiastic from a standpoint of both the candidates as well as the attendees, many of which were first time convention goers. With 4,000 plus in attendance, it was difficult to believe one was in Massachusetts – the State commonly referred to as “The Blues State”, or by most pundits writing about the states politics and specific races “Safe Democrat”. The concept that Massachusetts is "Safe Democrat" “think” may need to be revised and quickly.


Enthusiasm at State GOP Convention with Bakers Nomination - photo blog


The new blood flowing into the party sees over 170 Republicans’ running for state and national offices in 2010, with many districts seeing Republican primaries for both the State Senate and Legislature as well U.S. Congressional districts for the first time in decades. This decries the common misconception that, although Scott Brown won in Massachusetts, there are few if any Republican’s running for statewide office.

The Top GOP Ticket sees Charles Baker for Governor and Richard Tisei, (the Minority GOP State Senate Leader) for lieutenant governor. State Representative Karyn Polito received the nomination for treasurer; and accountant, Mary Z. Connaughton, for auditor. According to Jennifer Nassour, State Party Chair, there are two potential candidates to take on embattled Attorney General, Martha Coakley, yet signatures must be collected by May 4th, which the Boston Globe dubs a “Herculean task” That said, one can see Jennifer Nassour take on the challenge and get the job done.

Baker, who will run a three way race against incumbent Deval Patrick, and Democrat turned Independent, Timothy Cahill, offers voters a fresh face and common sense ideas to get the Commonwealth back on track. Although currently polling behind Cahill in one poll by 2 points (Western New England College Poll), the poll, taken prior to the convention also notes that 10% of respondents are currently undecided, and Bakers name recognition, at the time of the poll showed that 40% of the respondents chose “never heard of him” as an option. That will undoubtedly change as Baker strengthens his brand throughout the state.

Baker is at once charismatic and has that “boy next door” appeal, without seeming in the least elitists. One might say he is similar to Scott Brown, but only in the way in which the two men both worked to get through college, and their ability to relate to the “the rest of us."

Baker won the nomination in delegate balloting between himself and Christy Mihos. Mihos has since given his nod of approval to Baker, stating that the “Better man won” Kudos to Christy for being a “class act”.

What makes Baker the man for the job? He has the experience in running a business, the former embattled Harvard Pilgrim Healthcare, and turned it into a profitable enterprise. He also brings State government experience to the table having served as Undersecretary for Health in the Executive Office of Health and Human Services in the Weld administration. However, it is the personal side of Baker that seals the deal – in his remarks during the convention, he spoke about the lack of opportunity in the Commonwealth, and as a parent, he wondered if his children would move elsewhere to find opportunity (as many have, and many continue to do), and how, should the State Continue on its current path, many parents would have to either get on a plane or travel a distance in order to see their children and grandchildren. It was a moment of speak from the heart, and it resonated with those who see children leaving the state, or preparing to leave, to seek homes where the taxes are not as high and the opportunities do not include a life in the service industry.

Therefore, Baker is, indeed the better Candidate for the Governor’s office, based on background, experience and empathy for those citizens who are struggling to make ends meet under the never ending request for new taxes coming out of Beacon Hill. The argument will be made - how will Baker get anything done with a legislature and Senate that is completely made up of Democrats? That will remain to be seen, as November approaches and the dust settles, odds favor that the 170 plus candidates vying for state offices as well as congressional offices, will even the field and make the path for reform under Baker a bit easier than it has been for past Republican Governors.

Although early in the game, one can predict, based on past Massachusetts gubernatorial races, where a third party is involved and the incumbent has numbers that are less than favorable (34% approval for Deval Patrick according to the Western New England poll), the more Baker is among the populace, personally and through advertising, his stock will rise, and Cahill will fall into the usual independent category of 6% come November. Of interest a recent online poll (which one cannot give too much credence, however, it did come from the Springfield Republican website – Masslive.com (which Western Massachusetts is not normally a stronghold for Republicans (with exceptions of Chicopee, Westfield and other communities who voted overwhelmingly for Brown, while Springfield voted for Coakley) – the poll results thus far: Baker: 45%, Cahill 26% and Patrick 21%. Although the actual statewide numbers may be closer to Patrick 34% (based on current approval and WNEC poll, Cahill 12% (giving him the benefit of the doubt) and Baker 54%.


Masslive.com polls shows Baker with Strong Lead