Wednesday, October 08, 2014

Senate Elections 2014 – NC Debate leaves questions – Hagan hammers Millionaires – clueless on Kennedy Equal Pay Act. Picking Harry Reid’s Replacement.

It’s difficult to tell which races will be the one to finally push Harry Reid (D-NV) off his mighty perch, and send him back to the floor of the Senate in order to finally get something, anything done. Granted a conservative here, but unenrolled, as disgust for both organized political parties is what drives a clear vision of what might be wrong in Washington. This fuels a constant infatuation with CSPAN and debates around the nation for the Federal Senate and House seats up for grabs in less than a month. Grab the popcorn and possibly some aspirin as this is not for the impatient, nor those who cannot stand another slogan; especially that darn “war on women”.

Taking a quick look at the races on Real Clear Politics, it appears that the following races are “toss-ups” based on the latest polling: AK: Begich (D), AR: Pryor (D), CO: Udall (D), GA: Open (R), IA: Open (D), KS: Roberts (R), KY: McConnell (R), LA: Landrieu (D), NH: Shaheen (D), NC: Hagan (D) . (Real Clear Politics). The control of the Senate rests on a handful of seats, 6 – which, one might note – is a conservative estimate. Looking at the aforementioned races - and employing some handicapping – on these: Sullivan trumps Begich in AK, in AR - Cotton tops Pryor, in CO – Udall trumps, GA, Perdue, IA, Ernst (that’s by a hair), KS: Orman, (I), LA, Cassidy, in NH, Scott Brown, and in NC, Tillis *Based on last night’s debate.

Therefore, we have 7, plus the 3 open seats in considered safe Republican (MS, SD, WV) and that brings the number to 7 – with 9 Democrat takeover’s – and Udall Safe (so far). The Senate needs to start seriously considering who would fit the bill to undo the damage Harry Reid has done, and to get things moving – at the very least a pretense at work. This will also allow the House, who has passed a slew of bills which have all been denied a vote at the Senate (sitting on Reid’s desk) a chance to either pass or not, depending on merits.

Back to Hagen, The News and Observer notes that neither candidate pulled any punches, however, it also appeared that they could not step away from attacks, one liners aimed at the people who have to choose between the two and figure out which one is more reprehensible – in this opinion that would be Kay – she appears to be earnest until she drags out that War on Women, and BS about having to pass an Equal Pay Act, whereby Tillis actually understands there is already one on the books, signed by one John F. Kennedy in 1963, and it just needs to be enforced. Probably the best place to start would be Washington DC. The Dem’s need new talking points, and the President has supplied the GOP for this election, but they’ll need something new for the next. Otherwise, it is no wonder that anyone with any sense sees this as a chess game of more entitlements vs. less government – and will vote accordingly.

One has to ask, if JFK signed an Equal Pay Act in in 1963 (remarks and information courtesy of University of California at Santa Barbara), why was there a need for others? – Why not enforce the law on the books? Because, women in general, as consumers, and potential voters, are considered a minority, due to what? Sheer numbers suggest that without political division women would rule (literally), therefore, not enforcing certain laws, keeps major political parties in force (equal pay, border security, blah, blah, blah). Did Tillis remind Hagen that this was the case? – Nope, he just stole the President’s line about the agenda this election, and that was, in essence the entire debate. It is a good line, far as debates go..I’ve had better with my Beagle.

About polls, personally they play a part and suggest a lean one way or the other, however, given the man on the street theory, whereby, people have had it across the board, (apparently the improving economy has not trickled down to what used to be the middle class), then bloodbath is the only word on would suggest for the Progressive Democrats this election, and with only 2 years to recover, anyone running on the aforementioned ticket in the general, should have the DNC front the entire bill.

As a betting individual using polls and politics, there is margin of error. For example in 2012 there was no way to convince this individual otherwise that even Mickey Mouse would have been able to ace the presidency under a GOP ticket – however, there was a miscalculation - there had to be a type of candidate in play to get both Tea Party (fiscal conservatives) and Evangelicals (those that believe certain religions are cults and therefore would not vote for say – a Mormon) – the theory by the RNC that no matter who they choose as a candidate would be better and that the base would go along, apparently were wrong. Leading to a gross error in prognostication on my part – go figure.

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