Saturday, December 10, 2011

GOP 2012 Debate Reminder - Tonight ABC News

The ABC News-Des Moines Register 2012 GOP Debate will take place tonight from 8 to 10 pm Central, 9 pm eastern. - The debate will be live streamed here at".

Friday, December 09, 2011

Gingrich Book Tours on Campaign Trail Irks Media, Flashback 2007- Obama Book Sales on Campaign Raked in 4.2 million – Media Political Bias Much?

Newt Gingrich at recent book signing, image: the desert news

The APvia CBS:

(AP) WASHINGTON — Newt Gingrich loves selling himself — both as a presidential hopeful and as a for-profit author.

As he seeks the GOP nomination, the former House speaker has combined the traditional political campaigning with the frequent sales job for his books and films that have earned him millions. As his rivals on Friday scheduled busy days with voters in early nominating states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, Gingrich planned a single public event: a book signing a few blocks from the U.S. Capitol.

Gingrich, enjoying a surge in the polls just a month before the first nominating contests are held, prides himself on his non-traditional campaign style. It isn't clear whether it will pay off politically. But it certainly has not hurt his personal income.

In reading the above, one would believe Gingrich is a narcissist who, although on the camp gin trail for the GOP Presidential Nomination, is somehow less worthy for selling a few books – one has to question why this is a big deal? Book sales have become part of almost every candidate’s arsenal, especially when Presidential Campaigns hurt politicians financially in some cases.

Gingrich, or Mitt Romney for that matter, are not the only politicians to shill for personal income while on the campaign trail, however, there was less media focus on candidates depending upon party affiliation.

There are few images of Obama actualy ineracting with the pubilc at a book-singing, this from where the books are still for sale

In 2007, then senator Obama, released his book, went on Ophra, and enlisted the aid of that woman’s ability to sell books, and then he personally went on tour: from the Sun Times: “Obama Hitting the Road for Book Tour” This book tour contributed to the President’s personal income of 4.2 million made in 2007 The New York Times.

On the one hand, if one is a Republican and one signs books during the primary/caucus season it is somehow horrid! However, if one is a Democrat, then that income is glorified, and that individual lauded by the press.

Part and parcel of the story on the Gingrich Book Singing in Washington DC is a question posed by the AP of Gingrich throwing away time in Iowa or NH or SC where he might be better served garnering votes. It is a gamble, of course, this close to the caucus date, but that is a decision that is made by the Gingrich camp, much in the same manner, then Senator Obama hit the trail in primary states where Clinton had the lead, selling his book, and increasing his personal income. Other candidates that have hawked books while on the campaign trail are too numerous - but include off the top: Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas (2008 Presidential Campaign), Mitt Romney, former one term Governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts (wrote two, one released in 2007 and one in 2010 (Amazon), Clinton’s written Books, John Edwards wrote books, the later all well-received by the press.

It has, therefore, before common place for those seeking a higher office, to write a book, or have a ghost author say Bill Ayers, write a book, and use that as a stepping stone, and or focal point of a political campaign, while increasing personal wealth, which may help stave off campaign debt, depending on how well received the book may be. It’s actually a conservative idea, fiscally sound, to gainfully employ oneself during a campaign.
However, it would behoove the press to remember that way back in 2008, other candidates had books to sell, while on the campaign trail, (on their websites, through talk show hosts, and appearance on the talk shows, at state fairs, and at $10,000 a plate campaign dinners fundraisers. Its part and parcel the same, and all should be treated equally.

Thursday, December 08, 2011

2012 Update – The Natural Order in Campaigns – Gingrich as the Non-GOP Establishment Candidate - Obama Campaign Hubris In the Face of the Inevitable

Gingrich, Paul and Romney - The Nominating Process Begins in Four Weeks - image

It goes without saying that a political campaign, much like a beauty pageant, is nothing more or nothing less than a contest, albeit one of immense import. The fact is that candidates in a primary must compete against one another for the top slot and that will evoke mud-slinging in the hopes of gaining points, especially as there are only weeks left before the primaries and caucuses begin. Therefore, one will find that lower tier and top tier candidates will release ads “knocking” one another, or if one candidate is in the lead, knocking one only. These advertisements and press releases, becoming more frequent, sound more desperate than honest – specifically as the aforementioned become more shrill and or “informative” as the time to vote draws nearer. (See: ”Game-Iowa GOP Attacks Target Gingrich” (Yahoo News) . It’s a game that is as old as the nominating process, and one can anticipate much the same in a national election (as the mud-slinging was just as, if not more, egregious when there were only thirteen states).

However, if the establishment political class (those who are in government) and a media hostile to one political ideology and/or party, attempt to knock a front-runner this close to the beginning of the voting process, one can bet the House (and possibly the Senate) that there is good reason – that individual is most likely not going to “play ball” with those entrenched, those elite, and those who would crown a “king” over allowing the “masses” to decide whom they felt would best lead the nation forward. It is obvious that the anti-establishment candidate is one Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, the current GOP front-runner, and the individual preferred by the political class is one Mitt Romney, the former one-term Governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts who has in recent weeks received endorsements from U.S. Senators, the Bush Family, Dan Quayle (former President H.W. Bush’s, Vice President), numerous pundits and the Fox News Network (which may explain the sudden surge in audience share that CNN is experiencing.)

In an AP article via the Boston Globe “Gingrich Surge Unnerves Some Republican Lawmakers” one is under the impression that Gingrich’s Peers of twenty-odd years ago (that is an established politician – or entrenched.) are horrified at the prospect of Gingrich as leader of the Free World, and notwithstanding, leader of the Republican Party. These few politicians (the five that are named), are not all in the Congress, but in the Senate where they would not have worked quit as closely with Gingrich over his entire career. They point to personal issues, and make statements that are vague or not particularly germane (given the time Gingrich has been out of the Congress) but nevertheless demeaning - and to a man they all support Mitt Romney. As one reads the second page, however, one runs into a similar group - this one a bit more pragmatic; recalling a different Gingrich, one who was focused, one who broke Gridlock. That is the Gingrich the political class fears – one who will get the job done, whether it fits their agenda or no.

In an email from the Romney Campaign, both Mitt Romney and former Governor of New Hampshire John Sununu and Senator Jim Talent will hold a press conference call outlining the many issues those three might have with Newt Gingrich’s “record”. That record is available online at The Library of Congress, and anyone can go back through Newt Gingrich’s entire career to find – baseless allegations being made by those who are in a political campaign.

It is interesting that there is little mention of the fact that the Massachusetts Secretary of State is making available correspondence from Mitt Romney’s time in office. These are hard copy documents, as the then, Romney Gubernatorial staff, purchased Commonwealth Computers and summarily wiped all email correspondence from the hard-drives (see article:here>). This is the type of politics that those living in the 16th and 17th century would find somewhat average, a bit of backstabbing, fabrication and business as usual.

It is for Gingrich, if he is to continue to be the front-runner, to either ignore or answer – to date, he has focused more on policy rather than political attacks on his record dating back two decades. What voters need to ask themselves, and one can believe they may have already done so given the polls, is “Can man (or woman) truly change their minds on an issue in twenty years?” The answer is obvious: anyone with an once of common sense understands that human nature and age and the factors of changes in society, advances in science and technology, allows individuals to change their minds, religion and even political affiliation. Changing one’s mind over the course of two decades is, therefore, not unusual. What is unusual is a change of heart and mind over a period of a year, or a month – that would be someone who could be categorized as a political opportunist.

What is perhaps the most amusing take on the rise of Gingrich and Romney as "underdog" comes from the New York Times in concert with the Obama Campaign Manger, David Axelrod. Axelrod seems to believe that the Democrats are somehow able to influence the Republican Race. That is, of course, somewhat possible (See Mitt Romney accusing Deval Patrick for leaking Romney’s staff erasing their computers contents to the Boston Globe as “politically motivated”.) Then again, with a historically low approval rating, four weeks before the primary and caucus season begins, the Presidents’ campaign should be doing their best to undercut the opposition, down to the last candidate, at the lowest level. The odds are not exactly in their favor, and it is David Axelrod’s job to say the “darndest things”.

What history has proven is a man in last place in any major political party primary, may end up being the winner - that a party will have a clear winner at a nominating Convention and choose to use a method involving “Super Delegates” (those of the political class), to choose another candidate (One who would more easily “fit” what the political “party leaders” desired, rather than say, nominate the woman who actually won the nomination). It is certain that poll numbers can and do change, and that the fortunes of a candidate do not necessarily ride on the polls (unless they have a 20 point advantage four weeks from the actual primary or caucus - then one can make a fairly safe bet on the front-runner). The aforementioned are historical and statistical facts. As we round the corner of December, with two debates scheduled for the GOP, (the next on the 12th of December (Saturday) on ABC at 8:00 Eastern, in Iowa and sponsored by the Des Moines Press Register) it will be those debates and the candidates performances that will reach the millions who will eventually decide who has the mettle to lead. It is part and parcel of the process - it is what makes these United States such an amazing country in which to reside as a citizen. This because, a “ruling political class” can be pushed, and reformed by the simple act of voting, and a leader can emerge by the will of the people, rather than by the will of a “class” pushing one candidate over another. (Of course, as a feminist, one is compelled to mention one more time, that one example where the people’s choice did not materialize, that of the 2008 Democrat Convention).

Wednesday, December 07, 2011

2012 GOP Update: Gingrich Soars in SC and National Gallup, Romney To Fight Back – First Must Battle Data Dump of MA Computers from 2008

The new Top Tier: Gingrich and Dr. Ron Paul - image

The fact that the Iowa and New Hampshire Caucus and Primary are now four weeks away has current front runner, Newt Gingrich, the target of just about everyone who is connected to Washington or the Romney Campaign. According to Gallup Gingrich leads Romney by 15 points, and the President by continues to hold historically low approval ratings. Rasmussen reports Romney is behind Obama by 2 points, while Gingrich now leads the President by 3 – both within the margin of error. In the GOP Primary, Rasmussen shows Gingrich with a lead of 38 to 17%(Romney), (that data coming from Dec. 1st, while Gallup’s release was on Dec. 6th, with similar results.

Over at Public Policy Polling: Gingrich Leads in both South Carolina and Colorado by 51 to 14 in SC and 37-18 in SC (PPP).

Romney is not going to take this surge by Newt Gingrich sitting up straight and playing nice: Lately, Romney has met with the Republican Royalty, the Bushes CBS, and most recently Romney received the backing of Dan Qualye, former V.P. under President George H.W. Bush.

Further, according to the blog TPM a track on Karl Rove (former Advisor to George W. Bush, also known as the “Architect” of the Bush campaign’s has been less than kind to every candidate but Romney. Although, one has to take all of this as a given, as Romney has been considered by the Republican Establishment as a “given” for the nomination since 2008. Even with all that help from his friends, Romney feels the need to target Gingrich who, at this point in time, and with a 10 plus point lead over Romney in both state and national polling, may be difficult to remove from his perch.

Gingrich appears to have the lone distinction of being disliked by almost everyone in Washington, from the Post, to key Democrats such as Nancy Pelosi, but more importantly to the a small number of Republican’s in the Senate and Congress, who have a lot to say about leadership, and organization, or in their words, a lack thereof. Of course, that may play well with other Congressional Representatives, Karl Rove, the Bushes, and or a variety of RNC operatives, but how well does that play in the heartland? One might refer to the polls.

Before Mitt Romney can go on his mission to destroy Newt Gingrich (by rehashing old records, and repeating Rovian slurs, (and perhaps a pointer or two from the Bushes and Dan Quayle), he has to deal with the fact that his administration dumped all email correspondence just prior to his abandonment of the Massachusetts Governors office for a run at the White House. The story, which has been bubbling below the surface since November 18, 2010, speaks to Romney’s spending over $100,000 in Massachusetts State Taxpayers Dollars (a mere drop in the bucket considering Massachusetts and waste of Tax Payers Dollars), to buy staff computers, and then wipe the hard drives clean of any electronic communication that then Governor Romney or his staff may have written or received in the three years he acted as Governor (campaign for President in the 4th year) The move to do so was considered unusual by former Governors: Cellucci, Weld and Swift, and the entire revelation of the sale and wipe of the Romney computers leak to the press - was blamed on the Obama administration. Apparently the spin is Deval Patrick (D-MA), current governor, and pal to President Barack Obama, was so filled with angst over Romney (who has not led in polls since anyone but Romney entered the race), that the administrations lawyer leaked the facts to the Boston Globe. (First Amendment Center)

Romney should have realized the Governorship he held was in Massachusetts, where, if one were to read The Blues State by Jon Keller, available on Amazon for a pittance one would understand that dirty politics rule Beacon Hill, and although the dominant political party is Democrat, those Republican’s in position of power, tend to tread similar waters. The book is a real eye-opener and well documented.

The balance of the world media has run with the story as of this morning: December 7th and the tale of Romney ridding history of emails during his tenure can be read from Canada, or one might catch it on the morning news. However, it is apparently the norm for the systems to purge outgoing governors records automatically (according to the Boston Globe), but that does not explain the physical purchase and wipe of the drives Secretary of State, Democrat William Galvin will be releasing the paper trail from the Romney administration soon. From an historical pespecxtive it is unfortunate that the emails were lost. However,from the Romney campaign’s perspective wiping these electronic documents and selling the computers to staff members was completely legal under Massachusetts law (again read that book “The Bluest State”).

Side note: although to this mind it is of little consequence given the fact that the release of Sara Palin’s emails during her tenure as Govenor of Alaska revealed that she did her job, while the bulk of the emails were so mundane, that those news outlets that paid a pretty penny to gain access, were sorely disappointed. That may have been the case with the Romney emails, but the fact that theses emails were specifically erased, legal or no, raises questions.

Ron Paul, who is now second in most polling to Gingrich, essentially replacing Romney, has gone negative in his campaign ads, and as Romney plans to do the same thing (given the LA Times report), one can anticipate a backlash against both the Romney and Paul campaign. The reason Gingrich is known as the “smartest guy in the room” is simply because he has kept a civil tone throughout, focused on the nation, rather on tearing down his peers, and that, from past elections, both state and national is the smartest move one can make. Negative advertising gives no advantage – therefore, the suggestion to Dr. Paul’s campaign abandon the attacks and play up one’s ideas and one’s own record. As a resident of the State of Massachusetts who lived under the Romney administration – the message to that Campaign - don’t change a thing.

In closing the latest Gingrich ad that is running in Iowa is shown below.

Tuesday, December 06, 2011

The “Vetting” of Newt Gingrich – From Pelosi to Axelrod to a a Few Select Peers to The Media – Fear Drives The Ridiculous Into Action

The Targets: Gingrich, Pual and Romney - image

Of all the GOP Presidential Candidates, Newt Gingrich has one of, if not the most, public record available. For that matter, his public record exceeds that of the current occupant of the White House, President Barack Obama, and other GOP front runners has risen to the top, they were also picked apart, accused, assessed by the opposition, only to be dismissed (or put on hold) by those who are watching the debate process. If credit were to be given to the press and those pundits who can’t pick a fish out of a barrel of one, then the entire process would have been wrapped up long ago – but the nominating process is a slow one, and rightly so, it gives times for those interested in the candidates who may be President of these United States, the opportunity to either succeed to fail, according to what they do in their public appearances, generally the debate arena.

Herman Cain, who now is allegedly a “footnote”, which the media would have one believe was due to the many “women” who came forward to accuse the man of everything from sexual misconduct to assault, to a thirteen year affair, has suspended his campaign, yet will continue to be involved in the process – one need only go to the to understand that Herman Cain intends to remain a force in national politics. There is, of course, Mitt Romney, the one who is preferred by the Beltway, political class, and, as a moderate, the one who is least likely to achieve his goal – if the polls are any indication (and at this stage, they tend to be the winnowing of the wheat from the chaff, Romney will see a repeat of the 2008 primary process. There is Dr. Ron Paul, who is rising above Romney is Iowa now, a staunch Libertarian, running on the Republican ticket, who has the financial credentials, as well as time spent in the Legislator and the ability to appeal to the youth and more over, a wide spectrum of the political process. If anyone had predicted that going into the home stretch of the beginning of the primary process that the two candidates to rise to the top would be former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Dr. Ron Paul, the Libertarian from Texas, would be at the top of the “heap”, they would have been summarily dismissed.

Why? It was a 24/7 Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin show on the media, beginning with appearances in late 2010 (immediately following the mid-terms) on late night talk shows (Letterman and Leno) and the daytime crew (The View) – it was expected, or implied more to the point, that one or the other would be at the top, and stay there. However, time and the ups and downs of politics, with a little help from the left and those who would see a different candidate in place, resulted in a front-runner that is a bigger thorn in the side of the DNC than any candidate in decades. The idea man, the guy on the bench in Congress who, while writing a ton of legislation and getting his legislation passed, also became a back-bench whip, insuring that GOP congressional leadership, at the time, got the votes they needed. The man rose to the position of the Speaker of the House, worked with one of the most moderate of modern Democrat President (William Jefferson Clinton), and together, they balanced the budget, and pushed through health care reform. During his entire tenure, he continued to write legislation, some which passed, and some which never made it out of committee. He was, and continues to be a man of ideas, as well as a man who puts those ideas into action – all of this information is available in the Congressional Record, which is online, and involved a bit of research on the part of anyone who really wants to know what their Congressperson, or Senator has accomplished. It was during Newt Gingrich’s rise as the Speaker, that the problems began, those problems are known as opposition ethics charges. Charges that are based on theory, rumor, and some facts, and are played out in “secret committees” (according to Nancy Pelosi), and the subject is generally censored if found guilty of say fifteen or so charges of income tax evasion (See Charles Rangel, Barney Frank, or any number of high profile Democrats that committed crimes, and then were “chastised” by a group of their peers.) The process for the truly guilty is to stand in the well of the Congress and say “I’m sorry” to the members of Congress – all is then forgiven and life goes on as normal. Problematically, when Newt Gingrich was being “investigated by Nancy Pelosi (say that carefully and then think about it carefully), he did what most Republican members of the Congress or Senate had been known to do – resign. Although Gingrich was cleared of every charge but one (something to do with forgetting to sign a Congressional document – that is not a joke). Therefore, as far as records go, the man came up with great ideas for the country, implemented a good percentage of those ideas through legislation he wrote, and then rose to the Speakership and worked across the aisle, and he also bullied those in the GOP who were not overly happy with that situation (Those you can find on talk shows noting Newt Gingrich’s lack of leadership skills – in other words, someone who refuses to tow the party line, and “just say no” rather than get something done.

However, one did not get the impression that Newt was pure as the driven snow, he was of an age, and he was in Washington, and let’s face it, from a women’s perspective, he’s a man – all of which leads to some moral and or ethical issues that, in the world of Democrats would lead to impeachment, and a bump in the polls, but which is now considered, unforgivable by the same – go figure. People make mistakes, people change their mind – over a period of two decades, Gingrich came to a new place, with the same intellect and the same political drive, minus the ethics and moral issues not generally associated with the GOP – which is considered to be made of rapid right wing Christian’s who carry bibles in one hand and guns in the other. In reality –however, that is hardly the case, those who are Christian, look at the mettle of the man or woman, and if decades have passed, forgive and move on.

The GOP has taken a different mold, their members are varied, from young and old libertarians, to former Democrats, to the hard –right, it’s a mixed bag – and that is driving the Progressive Democrats to distraction.

Enter Nancy Pelosi, former Speaker of the House, and Mistress of the Closet of Skeletons, who was reported as saying: (blog from the Nation’s Capital)

One of these days we’ll have a conversation about Newt Gingrich,” Pelosi told Talking Points Memo. “When the time is right. … I know a lot about him. I served on the investigative committee that investigated him, four of us locked in a room in an undisclosed location for a year. A thousand pages of his stuff."

Thousands of pages of distraction is more like it, with baseless nonsense designed to embarrass and stymie and stop the forward march of then Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich – the aforementioned charges that were dropped, except for that horrid neglect to sign a “document” charge. Three words for Miss Pelosi: “Freedom of Information”. If Pelosi had anything on Mr. Gingrich, she would have been spouting it from the rooftops, however, she appears to have nothing more than innuendo – and why?
Newt has risen 20 points in the polls and he is four weeks out from Iowa, and in a statistical tie with Obama.
Plus, face it, Nancy likes the press, the limelight and she says the darndest things- all taken with a grain of salt.
The “Old Newt” as a Republican would have hidden under a rock and exited the race in shame”, (theoretically mind you), however now - not so much.

The very same Blog of the Beltway (Can that really be a good thing?): offered Newt’s response: in true Gingrich style:

Newt Gingrich said that a threat from ex-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to disclose information she learned while serving on an ethics committee investigating him during his time as Speaker of the House would "totally abuse the ethics process" and violate rules of the House of Representatives.
"I want to thank Speaker Pelosi for what I regard as an early Christmas gift," Gingrich said at a press conference in Manhattan Monday.

If Newt were able to publicly humiliate Nancy Pelosi, (and even an attempt may count), he would be a national hero and one could just skip the primary. Outside of Washington, the media, and per made for Nancy District #8 (only San Francisco – they broke up the 8th district, taking the more conservative San Mateo County out, in order to allow Nancy to have her own Kingdome that would actually elect her – the 8th District of California includes only one city - San Francisco) Frankly, the only way to get rid of Nancy is for someone who is a more ridiculous a figure , to challenge her in a primary and win, otherwise, she will be the Robert Byrd of California’s 8th. – We’re stuck with Nancy – safe in her made for lunacy 8th District – for now. That would be a Christmas Present, Mr. Speaker, for the entire country.

David Axelrod, chief engineer of “How to Elect Barack Obama” an obscure state senator with zero experience to the office of the presidency, while basing every move on an even more Obscure figure, the Governor of Massachusetts as a model (Yes – we can (do what?!) – is now chatting on about Newt Gingrich. Axelrod, a Chicago Political Consultant, is on talk shows (usually MSNBC or somewhere on a blog) has now, according to “Polticifact” coined a phrase for Gingrich: “The Godfather of Gridlock”. Interesting in that the phrase has little to do with the amount of legislation Gingrich managed to get passed in his lengthily tenure in the House, but none-the-less, a sign that Gingrich is now the guy that worries the Obama Campaign more than any other. Axelrod is the Obama Campaign, and if he’s looking for a “Yes we can” slogan for his “masses”, that will fire up the base against Candidate for President Newt Gingrich – “The Godfather of Gridlock” is snappy, but easily dismissed as ridiculous. Is Axelrod losing his touch – or did he run out of really pithy slogans like “yes, we can”.

Finally, the media has joined with Axelrod and Nancy to do its due diligence to keep any Republican out of the White House, and therefore, are picking up on anything Gingrich has to say (and that man has to say a lot, as he has a lot of suggestions to make, probably more that one can imagine, as there are more things just wrong enough with this country, that could be so easily made right, with a bit of tweaking, a la Newt, that in his multiple books, appearance and now on the campaign trail, sound bites a plenty appear on an almost second by second basis.

Over at CBS the media has taken some umbrage at the fact that Gingrich, in a debate, suggested that youth be taught the value of working for a dollar, to build a sense of accomplishment, and teach youngsters how to get a job, keep a job, and save some cash in the process, thereby becoming, eventually, upstanding citizens, rather than gang members about to shoot at the White House. The key words here are “youth” and “work”. This somehow translates into “horror of horrors – breaking the “child labor laws”. Under the current systems, millions and millions of today’s youth cannot work until they are sixteen (and must obtain a permit) (Massachusetts state law). If they want to be newspapers carriers (that time tested, 50’s model of earning a few bucks), their parents must take on the job, and be hopeful they don’t’ get caught letting their kids deliver the Sunday paper. The Child Labor Laws were originally designed to avoid putting an under aged youth into a factory setting that involved twelve hour shifts, and since has morphed into the ridiculous – which may account for the high rate of unemployment among today’s youngsters, who may even want to work. His plan which involved pretty much the paper route, and or community service route, for these youngsters, especially in inner cities, to earn and appreciate the value of a dollar, to have some self-respect, and to become more vested in their futures, is a bad thing? This coming from one who as a child, picked beans for 25 cents a bushel in a farm down the road, moved to the paper route, as soon as one was available, and at the age of sixteen, was working in retail looking forward to saving enough money to go to college and of course, buy a car. Then Jimmy Carter came along and blew that up. But, this adult now has no fear of work, and understands the value of a dollar, and as soon as able, pushed her sixteen year old (the age of the “work permit”) into finding a job, keeping the job, keeping up her grades, and learning to manage her finance. When that child saw her first paycheck, one has to wonder who was most proud, the child or the parent?

This is one of Newt Gingrich’s ideas, one which has been summarily dismissed by the lot of idiots who are currently in charge of the way we are supposed to think and our government. Is it any wonder that he is being attacked form the left and the left in order to stop him from going back to Washington, as a President who might work with the speaker (regardless of the party in power), and the Senate (again the same), and who might actually get the nation on the right track economically and get a few kids off the street at the same time?
It makes sense, so it must be dangerous to Axelrod and Company, because if the moderate voter thinks Gingrich is ok, then there is trouble in Chicago.

Should, and as those who follow politics know, another candidate take the lead in these last weeks before the primary/caucus begins (say Ron Paul, who is next in line by the polls), then what can those in Chicago and San Francisco, due to the Good Doctor? Stay tuned. The problem that Team Obama has is that every one of the candidates, including Herman Cain, are perceived as being able to do a better job at managing the affairs of the country – specifically by the GOP and those who vote in those primaries, and those who vote in those primaries are, sometimes moderate Conservative Feminist, former Democrats, newly minted Republicans, all with the notion that there just has to be a better alternative. It will not be an easy race, by any means, the race to the GOP nomination and the race to the White House, but a race that is clearly competitive on the side of the GOP and the eventual nominee, be it Gingrich or Ron Paul or Jon Huntsman or Michele Bachmann’s to win.

Monday, December 05, 2011

GOP 2012 Weekly Wrap-up: Newt Takes Front Runner Status, Cain Suspends Campaign, Romney in Battle with 25% Average, Huckabee’s Fox Presidential forum

Gingrich, Romney and Pual - the Front Runners - image: all voices dot com

2012 GOP Candidate, Newt Gingrichhas taken the lead in the following polls: (using Real Clear Politics Method of combining polls over a period of months) National by 6.3% (Last Poll Rasmussen: 38%), Iowa, Gingrich plus 10.2% (Last Poll, Des Moines Register 25%), South Carolina, Gingrich plus 8.6 (Last Poll Insider Advantage; 38%) and rounding out New Hampshire, Romney leads by 16.5 (Last Poll NBC/Marist Romney 39%). This close to the primaries (4 weeks away) little change is anticipated for other candidates to move up by double digits in any of these states, although a candidate such as Ron Paul, may pick up enough votes to take strong second in Iowa or New Hampshire, or now South Carolina, where he may benefit from Cain’s Suspension of his campaign. A 20 plus point lead over the closest competitor should indicate a solid hold on a state, by the 3rd week of December. If the present polling is an indicator of what is to come: Gingrich would take both Iowa and South Caroline, second in New Hampshire, which would, essentially roll into Florida (where he also leads) – by the end of Super Tuesday, it should be clear who the front-runner(s) are, either the Former Speaker of the House, New Gingrich, or the former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney. Although Romney will have a battle holding a first in the southern and Midwestern states necessary to win enough delegates going into the convention.

Herman Cain suspended his campaign this weekend (NRP) noting “"So as of today, with a lot of prayer and soul-searching, I am suspending my presidential campaign. I am suspending my presidential campaign because of the continued distractions and the continued hurt caused on me and my family,". Cain was, of course, referring to the plethora of allegations against him from sexual harassment to sexual assault to a thirteen year affair, all of which, on first look are dubious, however, had he staying in the campaign, it would not be inconceivable that more women (or men) would come forward claiming affairs, harassment or paternity – it was the electric lynching Cain Prediction. That said, Cain did not lose momentum entirely based upon these allegations (given that trust in media is at a dismal low), rather his debate performance in the pivotal national security debate two weeks ago, where he was clearly out of his depth. This leaves seven Candidates in the field for 2012 going into the early Iowa and New Hampshire voting.

Mitt Romney, who had run in 2008 against then underdog, John McCain and former Governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee (who won Iowa, one must remember on a shoestring), has stayed consistent in polling over the entire period. The largest gain he’s made to date is the Marist poll out of New Hampshire, and should that hold true, it would give Romney a win in the state he expected to take in 2008 – but lost to John McCain, with similar poll numbers coming this time (December 1st week)out for Romney( Poll here) they eventually turned into a 5 point lead for McCain days before the primary. One can almost anticipate a repeat of 2008 repeat, however, Romney remains the most McCain (Moderate) candidate in the bunch, therefore this may still be fluid if the number of voters/caucus goes are GOP Party purists, and not independent lean Republican.

Speaking of New Hampshire the New Hampshire’s Concord Monitor, gave Newt Gingrich credit for having a niche issue, that of mental health and research for Alzheimer’s, Parkinson and other disorders that affect millions o f households and, as individuals age (the baby boomers specifically), will require more attention – Worth the read (See Link Concord Monitor)

Finally, this weekend, Fox News Host, Former Governor of Arkansas and Former 2008 Gop Presidential Candidate Mike Huckabee, held a forum for the Presidential candidates; those participating included Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry and Ron Paul. The premise, each candidate has a turn being “grilled” by state Attorney Generals, (as seen on Fox), The AG’s included: Ken Cuccinelli of Virginia, Pam Bondi of Florida and Scott Pruitt of Oklahoma, all of whom are hard-line 10th Amendment AG’s, - Newt Gingrich went up first with questions based on past issues, including his now mulit-answered and answered, ad with Nancy Pelosi on the couch regarding Climate Change. Each candidate was given a turn before this hard right group – and surprising the one that the AG’s all agreed was the strictest constructionist was – Mitt Romney?

The full video appears below

The next debate will be held on December 12th, at 9pm eastern on ABC and sponsored by the Des Moines Register

Sunday, December 04, 2011

Gingrich leads in IA, SC, FL Chasing Romney In NH – The Modern History of Polling and the eventual nominee.

The Current Top of the Field in Order - Image from CNN

What’s in a poll? – It’s often difficult to tell, especially when polls are taken six months before a caucus or primary, or twelve months before a general election. However, when the polling begins to “tighten” four weeks prior to the caucus or vote, a fairly clear indicator of the eventual nominee appear. AS of now, that individual appears to be one Newt Gingrich.

The following are the current status of polling in December for Iowa and New Hampshire, and South Carolina;

Iowa currently stands at Gingrich 28, Paul 19, and Romney 12, which, happens to be the number of undecided’s. Those undecided’s, at this late date, generally go to one of the two front runners in the polls – Iowa could go to either Paul or Gingrich at this point.

In New Hampshire as of November 29th, Gingrich had come within 10 points of Romney, who is considered to be the frontrunner in New Hampshire, however, the prior poll had Romney at 41 points, with Cain at 23 and Gingrich at 11. Should Gingrich or Romney pull ahead with a 20 point lead within the next polling cycle (December through second week) that individual most likely will have the state. (This of course depends on the poll, some have Gingrich in a statistical tie: See: Real Clear for averages of all polls taken – both national and primary states, with the individual polls available and outcomes.

However, as history does indicate, the State of South Carolina goes a long way in predicting the eventual outcome: Currently Gingrich, has a substantial lead of 23 points over Romney.

In 2007, in the same time period the following polling was highly predictive:

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee moved into first place among Republicans in Iowa, and Illinois Senator Barack Obama is leading the Democratic field, according to a Des Moines Register poll.
The shift among the top contenders in both parties since the last Register poll comes about a month before the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, the first contest in the 2008 nomination race. It is followed by the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8.
Huckabee won the support of 29 percent of Republicans polled, surging 17 percentage points since an October survey and overtaking former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who got 24 percent support in the poll conducted Nov. 25-28. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani had 13 percent support and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson trailed with 9 percent.

While McCain lead in the New Hampshire Polls as of December
Going on to win the state of New Hampshire (similar to the current Romney/Gingrich match-up)

South Carolina then split the vote enough with Fred Thompson on the ballot to Give McCain an Edge over Mike Huckabee.

In 1999, to put everything into perspective, Gallup’s national gave Bush the lead at the same time frame: Bush led the field over Bradley and McCain, entering the race in July of that year.

Finally, there is an interesting history of polling by Gallupwhich points to the fact that the Republican’s had the advantage over the years as a party, overall, and had an incumbent in the White House. While polling on the Democrat side was a bit up and down and consistent with the polling taking place now on the 2012 Republican race. One can conclude therefore, that the current up and down nature of the Republican 2012 Presidential candidates polling, is, from an historical point of view accurate, and as such, the polling taking place now in Iowa and New Hampshire, this late in the game, points to the eventual nominee.

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