Latest New Hampshire GOP Poll – Romney Leads by 23%, 36% Like to Change Minds Before the Primary – Welcome to Iowa!!

The National Journal Headline touts “Romney Up Big In New Hampshire”, naming several University polls, the most recent from Suffolk University, the other two: Marist and University of New Hampshire, however, one has to take a closer look at the poll marginals to understand that New Hampshire is as volatile as Iowa.

In the latest poll coming from Suffolk, released the 6th of January – a daily poll taken for the past seven days shows that Romney has a large lead of 40%, with the nearest challenger, Ron Paul at 17%, the balance - Rick Santorum at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Huntsman at 8% and Rick Perry at 1%. However, perhaps the bigger story is the fact that 2% are very likely to change their minds, 30% are somewhat likely to change their minds, and 2% are undecided – leaving 67% currently solid behind their candidate. The Marginals are here at www.suffolk.edu, with a graphic below.



(click on image to enlarge)

Therefore, between two televised debates this weekend, and the candidates running television ads in the Granite State, one may find that any combination of the above gaining or losing grounds in the final days leading to Tuesday. Should, for example, should those that are undecided or may change their mind, turn their vote to another candidate, Romney’s lead goes to 27% in this poll, still respectable, but with a margin of error (not noted on the marginal, assume generous) 3%, that puts this race in range for one of the other candidates. (Note: as prior polling and competing polls suggest that other candidates range in support.)

Additionally, one must look at the University of New Hampshire poll very closely, as this is the same polling institute that gave Martha Coakley a 15 point led over Scott Brown in the Massachusetts special election of 2009, the weekend prior to the vote. So convinced was the Boston Globe that they had their election eve graphics showing Coakley as the winner. Obviously, off by a 20 point spread, Brown won the election by 5 plus points.
Between the polls and the Beltways constant harping on an established front-runner with only two states having voiced their opinion, one can well imagine that all of the polls, and the results at this point, although of import, are not suggestive of a clear front runner.

Gingrich leads in IA, SC, FL Chasing Romney In NH – The Modern History of Polling and the eventual nominee.

The Current Top of the Field in Order - Image from CNN

What’s in a poll? – It’s often difficult to tell, especially when polls are taken six months before a caucus or primary, or twelve months before a general election. However, when the polling begins to “tighten” four weeks prior to the caucus or vote, a fairly clear indicator of the eventual nominee appear. AS of now, that individual appears to be one Newt Gingrich.

The following are the current status of polling in December for Iowa and New Hampshire, and South Carolina;

Iowa currently stands at Gingrich 28, Paul 19, and Romney 12, which, happens to be the number of undecided’s. Those undecided’s, at this late date, generally go to one of the two front runners in the polls – Iowa could go to either Paul or Gingrich at this point.

In New Hampshire as of November 29th, Gingrich had come within 10 points of Romney, who is considered to be the frontrunner in New Hampshire, however, the prior poll had Romney at 41 points, with Cain at 23 and Gingrich at 11. Should Gingrich or Romney pull ahead with a 20 point lead within the next polling cycle (December through second week) that individual most likely will have the state. (This of course depends on the poll, some have Gingrich in a statistical tie: See: Real Clear Politics.com for averages of all polls taken – both national and primary states, with the individual polls available and outcomes.

However, as history does indicate, the State of South Carolina goes a long way in predicting the eventual outcome: Currently Gingrich, has a substantial lead of 23 points over Romney.

In 2007, in the same time period the following polling was highly predictive:

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee moved into first place among Republicans in Iowa, and Illinois Senator Barack Obama is leading the Democratic field, according to a Des Moines Register poll.
The shift among the top contenders in both parties since the last Register poll comes about a month before the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, the first contest in the 2008 nomination race. It is followed by the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8.
Huckabee won the support of 29 percent of Republicans polled, surging 17 percentage points since an October survey and overtaking former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who got 24 percent support in the poll conducted Nov. 25-28. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani had 13 percent support and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson trailed with 9 percent.

While McCain lead in the New Hampshire Polls as of December
Going on to win the state of New Hampshire (similar to the current Romney/Gingrich match-up)

South Carolina then split the vote enough with Fred Thompson on the ballot to Give McCain an Edge over Mike Huckabee.

In 1999, to put everything into perspective, Gallup’s national gave Bush the lead at the same time frame: Bush led the field over Bradley and McCain, entering the race in July of that year.

Finally, there is an interesting history of polling by Gallupwhich points to the fact that the Republican’s had the advantage over the years as a party, overall, and had an incumbent in the White House. While polling on the Democrat side was a bit up and down and consistent with the polling taking place now on the 2012 Republican race. One can conclude therefore, that the current up and down nature of the Republican 2012 Presidential candidates polling, is, from an historical point of view accurate, and as such, the polling taking place now in Iowa and New Hampshire, this late in the game, points to the eventual nominee.

CNN-Opinion Research Polling Obama Believed Unlikely to Win Second Term – Compares Obama to Clinton in Polling Data Release - Analysis

Trouble in River City – No matter how one slices it, 51% of American’s polled in a CNN-Opinion Research Poll believe that Obama will be replaced in 2012. The poll (PDF here) taken the last week of January 2011, compares 1995 Gallup Trends polling on Bill Clinton’s presidency to the results of their poll on Obama in order to draw the conclusion that Clinton was polling in similar numbers to Obama now, and went on to win re-election.

In looking at potential two-term Presidents and polling, in January of 2003, George W. Bush was polling at approximately the same numbers as both Clinton and Obama, however, he was expected to win, not lose the Presidency. What one has to consider when viewing polls on individual Presidents, is the key word “individual”. Each President had an individual approach to leadership, which either appealed or, in some cases did not appeal to American voters a year before the general election campaigns began. In comparing the results of Bill Clintons poll numbers to Obama’s poll numbers is akin to comparing apples to oranges. Clinton was viewed as a moderate, the polling was taken in January of 1993, following the news of personal scandals involving President Clinton – it was, in a word, an approval or disapproval of a personal nature, not based on the man’s ability to govern. The Republican’s nomination of Bob Dole in 1995, a weak candidate, gave Clinton the help needed to gain a second term. In addition, Clinton transitioned as a moderate, and with apparent sincerity. Consider Welfare Reform, for instance, and a solid economy, an appearance of working closely with both sides of the aisle, since he took the office in his first term lent to his reelection in 1996.

There are several reasons that Barak Obama may not realize a second term, regardless of an apparent move to the center, and his recent epiphany regarding Ronald Reagan’s policies, the chief among them, his polarizing effect on the electorate, his administrations performance on the Health Care Reform and the Economy will also continue to play a factor. At this stage in the game, regardless of the fact that there are, according to CNN, no clear frontrunners in the GOP field (as no one has clearly announced an intent to run), Obama’s job approval continues to remain stagnant, and sinking on his handling of the economy (latest Gallup).

Although not one of us has a crystal ball to predict a future, it is, based on historical trends and reactions in comparing Obama to a similarly ideological U.S. President, Jimmy Carter, where one finds a basis to realistically anticipate the probability is high that Obama will not gain a second term. Carter not only faced dismal poll numbers, and a challenger from within his own party, Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy. Carter did go on to win the nomination, but lost the Presidency to Ronald Reagan in what can only be termed as a total repudiation of Carters’ policies.

When one reviews, the economies under both presidencies (Carter/Obama), their handling of the respective situations in a similar manner, and subsequent failure, the advancement of the government roll and entitlement programs under both administrations, and finally, foreign policy as regards the Middle East, would appear to data worth reviewing. Perhaps CNN should have compared a similar president, ideologically speaking, in their polling on Obama, say Carter, rather than Clinton to draw an accurate conclusion. However, as badly as the media (CNN) wants Obama in a second term, the use of Clinton as an example, does nothing to support the theory that Obama, like Clinton will overcome this deficit.

On the Republican potential nominees, Mike Huckabee receives the highest approval and favorability, with Mitt Romney and Palin both at his heels in the same poll. What was of interest in this particular portion of the poll, the question on the import of a candidates’ views matching one’s own, or the ability of a candidate to best Obama – Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents overwhelming chose the latter. Therefore, one might overlook Romney’s involvement in Massachusetts Care, or Huckabee’s “liberal” ability to govern across the aisle (not to mention his Christian Credentials), or even Sarah Palin’s “polarizing personality” if it was though that individual would beat the current President.


Note: Although by now, readers of this blog understand that Public Policy Polling is a favorite pollster, (based on two facts: 1) accuracy of their polling data) and 2) They are a Democrat Leaning firm which, if one finds Republican’s with gains in a firm that skews Democrat, then one cannot question their integrity, or the integrity of the polling data. This firm has been polling both the GOP field (as it is seen now), along with matchups between those GOP potentials and the President since 2010 – the results are telling: To follow the trends visit http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/surveys.