Saturday, October 31, 2009

New York 23rd – Two Candidates Only – Hoffman and Owens – Scozzafava Bows Out

Doug Hoffman, New York Conservative Party History in the Making - New York 23rd District - image:4.pb.blogspot

The Republicanrunning in the New York 23rd District, Dede Scozzafava, has taken herself out of the race, leaving the Conservative Candidate Doug Hoffman poised to make history. Hoffman, who had closed within a point of Democrat Bill Owns according to polls taken before Scozzafava announcement, will now, in all likelihood, surge past Owens on Tuesday to be the New York Conservative Party’s first Representative in the United States Congress.

Ms. Scozzafava suspended her campaign today, once it was determined by the latest polls that she could not possibly win. In a statement she thanked her supporters and acknowledging that her name would still appear on the ballot, indicated that those supporters were free to put their support where they chose.
It is now likely that on Tuesday, both New York, and the Governor’s seats in New Jersey and Virginia will be held by conservatives.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Congressional Health Care Plan – No Surprises - Overall Decline in Quality of Health Care can be Expected – Placing Incumbents at Risk.

Congressional Approval low among Independent and Republican and Democrat voters- image blogsrepworthreading

An article from the Boston Globe, via the A.P. speaks to the risks involved in the newly unveiled Obama Administration health care reform plan; the plans target the insurance, prescription drug, doctors and, the medical device industry for heavy taxes. These taxes are designed in part to defray the costs to the 1.5 Trillion Dollar plan that House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi unveiled yesterday in a public ceremony that was, not open to the public, rather open to those who were specifically chosen to attend by invitation only.

Arrogance or Stupidy: Pelosi Pushes Public Option to Detrement of the Public - image: huffingtonpost

Apparently, those industries targeted for higher taxes, fees and cuts, did not “play ball” with the Obama administration in the initial stages of the bill when health care providers were asked to accept taxes and fees that were designed to support the public option – or more specifically the “competition”. In honing in on the insurance companies with higher taxes, those who are currently holding policies can anticipate a sharp increase in premiums, in this economic climate, it is difficult enough for the average middle class to manage, and any increases plan an additional burden on families. Doctors have also been targeted as a group to pay higher taxes and fees – the result – either those fees will be passed onto the already over-taxed insurance companies, or the general public, or those physicians will look elsewhere – there is to date, no tort reform on this administrations agenda, which would at the least offer some relief to those practicing medicine by reducing exorbitant medical malpractice awards, thereby reducing the sky-high malpractice insurance premiums which affect anyone in the medical field. The pharmaceutical companies, will, in all likelihood, reduce research, which will further affect millions of American’s who are waiting for a miracle drug that only U.S. pharmaceutical firms appear to produce. The most hazardous of all industries targeted is the Medical Device Industry which produces medical equipment used in surgical procedures that make life livable for seniors and additionally, save lives. These firms produce devises such as artificial hips and heart stents and a host of products used in surgical procedures or alternately to reduce the risk of surgery.

Apparently, those in Congress who attended non-scripted Town Hall meetings over the summer, failed to grasp the fact that the majority of American’s preferred their current health care program, that improvements would be welcome, but that any deviations that would harm the current quality of care would not be tolerated. It is either the unfettered arrogance of the elite who live in the bubble that is Washington, or perhaps, at this point, the stupidity of those who, for now, control the lives of 309 million Americans, that has led to this debacle. Obviously , the House version is not the final say, rather the Senate must weigh in, and at this point, embattled Majority Leader, Harry Reid, is “almost certain” that the bill will make it to the floor” . It is understood that the Senate version has a type of “public option” that would allow States to opt out, includes provisions to tax individuals who, for what-ever reason, do not have health care (see Massachusetts model), both of which, as previously mentioned, do not play well with the majority of the public. (Refer to polling date where only 23% strongly approve of the Congressional plan.

Adding additional debt to an already astronomical deficit, with no end in sight, and spending taxpayers’ dollars with abandon, may play the largest role in the nations swing to the right (Gallup) as well as the swing right in early 2009 races; Virginia and New Jersey Governor races, and two U.S. Congressional seats: the New York 23rd and the California 10th. Of the four, it is possible that New Jersey (which is too close to call at this point) and the California 10th (again too close to call), may remain in the Democrat’s control, but the loss of two seats, regardless of whether they be a State Governors chair, or a U.S. Congressional Seat, signals the mood of the country - and a growing probability that the bulk of the 2010 Congressional races will swing right (again refer to all the Red or in some cases “black” for alternative party, appearing in polling on the Real Clear Politics website here

Although polls can be skewed to create a favorable outcome (many polls are commissioned and/or polling organizations have a specific ideological bent), it is apparent that with an average approval of under 25% the Congress is at risk along with those American’s who rely on the health care that is known as the best in the world. Reform with improvement would be welcome, but the current versions do not offer improvement, rather they signal additional burdens on the system and the general public.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Obama Faces A Fourth Front – The California 10th – Local Media: “Race to Replace Tauscher may be closer than first thought”

There’s been a good deal of attention (for those political junkies paying attention) to three particular races: the New York 23rd Congressional, and Virginia and New Jersey’s Governor’s seats, but a 4th exists – the California 10th. The seat, which was left vacant (similar to the 23rd), when Obama elevated Ellen Tauscher to a position in the State Department. On Tuesday, California 10th district voters go to the polls to choose either Republican David Harmer or John Garamendi, who survived a brutal Democrat primary.

According to local news outlet KCBS the race may not be a given, even though this district actually trends Democrat. According to the California Secretary of State’s office voter registration in the 10th district (as of February 2009), counts 368,484 registered voters, 47 percent Democrat, 29% Republican, 2.9% American Independent and .58% Green Party and additional count includes 1527 voters of whom 19.8% are uncommitted to any party, Libertarian, Peace and Freedom make up the balance. This should indicate a landslide for the Democrat running, that said, as with any off season election, the get out the vote drive is lackluster at best (New York 23rd may be the exception), and disenfranchised moderate Democrats may be more independent minded as of late. (These are the type of Democrats that reject left of center ideology and spending - similar to Democrats who were referred to as Reagan Democrats in the late 1970’s - remember that little “revolution” began in California all due to the Carter Phenomenon.) The last polling found on this particular race was for the Democrat primary. This race, perhaps more so than the other three, bears watching. Should the Republican take a healthy percentage of the vote (45%), or even win the seat (which according to local media, is probable), then this would signal a real rejection of the current modus operandi in place in Washington. Of the "big 3" races, the New York 23rd currently has Conservative Doug Hoffman in the lead, Virgina has Republican McDonnell leading by double digits, and New Jersey is too close to call, however, the Independent Candidate (similar ideology to Corzine)has lost ground in the past week, giving Corzine a slight edge over the Republican - the poll was conducted by Quinnipiac and with less than a week to go 19% of those polled are "undecided" making this any ones race.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Barney Frank – MSNBC The Ed Show Trancript “We Are Trying On Every Front To Increase Government in the Regulatory Area” - Frank's 2010 Opposition

A video surfaced yesterday from an MSNBC program via Real Clear Politics - in the video Ralph Nader and Barney Frank, Massachusetts 4th District U.S. Representative, have a back and forth on the regulation of derivatives. Simply put, a derivative,

“Derivatives are financial products, such as futures contracts, options, and mortgage-backed securities. Most of derivatives' value is based on the value of an underlying security, commodity, or other financial instrument.
For example, the changing value of a crude oil futures contract depends primarily on the upward or downward movement of oil prices.
An equity option's value is determined by the relationship between its strike price and the value of the underlying stock, the time until expiration, and the stock's volatility.
Certain investors, called hedgers, are interested in the underlying instrument. For example, a baking company might buy wheat futures to help estimate the cost of producing its bread in the months to come.
Other investors, called speculators, are concerned with the profit to be made by buying and selling the contract at the most opportune time. Listed derivatives are traded on organized exchanges or markets. Other derivatives are traded over-the-counter (OTC) and in private transactions.”

Nader speaks to Frank about his role in the deregulation of mortgage securities, (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac), and goes on to blast him for his support of a bill that allows exceptions on categories of these derivatives.

This is an abridged transcript (given Rep. Frank’s “unique style of speaking”):

Nader: “In 2000 you voted for a bill that continued the deregulation of the burgeoning derivative racket and now he’s supporting a bill that has a huge loophole in terms of exempting trillions of dollars in certain categories of derivatives, and he hasn’t (interruption from Frank) he didn’t support a categorical ban on the use of derivatives”

Frank: Well first off all Ralph - (*insults)
“I had overwhelming Republican opposition to any regulation of derivatives and some democrats - we fought hard for it – we are establishing a great framework for the regulation of derivatives – we are moving forward in that ad we’ve done as much as we can politically - the fact is we had a political situation – the real irony – the right wing took control of government and ruined it they gave it a bad reputation and now that “we are trying on every front in to increase the role of government in regulatory area”, we run into this public opinion that says hey, those are the guys that screwed up Katrina so the frustration is that they are benefiting from their own (word could be) incompetence.”

“We are trying on every front to increase the role of government in the regulatory area”

One comment appeared on Real Clear Politics that sums that statement up nicely: “Power deludes and absolute power deludes absolutely.

The Bill over which Ralph and Frank were arguing:
An article explaining the bill which passed the House, from DSNews, (here) goes into some depth explaining how the bill is “watered-down”, and goes into the exceptions referred to by Nader.

Barney Frank, whose memory is on any given day, either selectively partisan, selectively self-serving, has not acknowledged at any time, that there was opposition to his continued support for continuing deregulation, he is also holding fast to partisan speak – 2010 is an election year, and Frank does face opposition in his district.

Barney Frank on the Campaign Trail (since 1972) Faces Opposition from one Conservative – Earl Sholley and one “Republican”, Keith Messina. Messina, who originally began his campaign as an Independent, has since jumped onto the “Republican” label. Messina however, is not a conservative. (Shades of the New York 23rd!)

Frank has decided to take his campaign online: In a recent series of videos, Frank answers questions on issues that were presented through the blog In Frank “speak” – one of the 5 videos are featured below – the balance are on YouTube here From why the Lesbian and Gay Community should not bother with protests, to why the Democrat Controlled Congress with a like minded President have not made good on their campaign promises, Frank goes into detail to “explain”.

Frank faces opposition in the 4th District from Earl Sholley, a conservative populist candidate running as a Republican. Sholley has his own campaign videos on YouTube, which appear to speak in plain language, about common sense solutions, and without partisan diatribe.

Keith Messina , a newly minted Republican candidate for the 4th Congressional district, has a video below. In a recent article from the Boston Globe, Mr. Messina “promised a fresh perspective” and went on to say that he “supports federal recognition of same-sex marriage.”

Since 1972 Barney Frank has developed a left-of-center reputation and been responsible for legislation and oversight that has not only impacted his own district, but the entire nation. The voters in the 4th district have choices - (see above), there is simply no excuse for those in the 4th to continue to impose this brand of politician on the rest of the country. Those outside the state of Massachusetts are encouraged to donate to the opposition cadidate of your choice. Research is suggested.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

New York’s 23rd District, Doug Hoffman takes Lead in Latest Poll – Pawlenty Endorses. The Nation Trends Conservative - Analysis

Doug Hoffman, New York 23rd Conservative Candidate - image Madison County Courier

Doug Hoffman, Conservative Candidate for the New York 23rd Congressional District, has now taken the lead according to a poll conducted by the Conservative Club for Growth. Hoffman receives 31% of the vote, with Democrat candidate Owens at 27% and the Republican Candidate, Dede Scozzafava at 20%, the balance of those polled remain undecided with just over a week until the election. Tim Pawlenty has become the latest in a string of Republican heavy hitters, to endorse Hoffman. Pawlenty, who is considered a considered a potential candidate for the 2012 Republican Presidential race, gave Hoffman his endorsement on Monday. Pawlenty joins Sarah Palin, Steve Forbes, Rick Santorum, Fred Thompson who have endorsed Hoffman over the Republican Candidate, Dede Scozzafava, who is considered to be too moderate. Former House Speaker, Newt Gingrich has endorsed Scozzafava – Gingrich is once again, considered to be a possible candidate for the 2012 Republican ticket.

Why the split?

As happens in the two major political parties in the United States, there are various sub-factions within each party, all holding several basic tenants, but at the same time, disagreeing on many – neither party is, as of this writing, cohesive. The Democrat Party includes progressives, and moderates, as well as the newly minted “Blue Dog” Democrats, which are, from all intents and purposes, Republicans. The Republican Party has the moderate or Beltway Republicans and then the more focused conservatives, both fiscally and socially, that drive the vote. In addition there are several up and coming parties, including the Libertarian and American Conservative Party, all of which are drawing new members from both major political parties. Hoffman is a candidate of the New York Conservative Party, a separate entity, which was founded in 1962, after members of the Republican Party in New York, felt disenfranchised, and formed their own entity. The New York Conservative Party has been influential in races in New York State, electing James Buckley to the Senate in in 1970. (An extensive overview of the New York Conservative Partycan be found here at the University at Albany.

The Political Landscape

There has been a shift in the political think of the American populace, to the right – according to a recent Gallop Poll

“Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.”

Gallop explains that the reason the shift is significant is that independents, are weighing in as holding more Conservative views, a 29% shift towards conservatism since 2008. Given that independent voters, (which make up a significant part of the electorate, especially in certain states (see Massachusetts with over 50% of the electorate designated as unenrolleds), and that those voters generally choose a candidate based upon identity, not party affiliation, it would then follow that conservative leaning candidates will be given the nod in the 2010 and 2012 elections.

The Evangelical Factor

A leader of what is dubbed “the right-wing, Evangelical factor”, (often erroneously tied to the Republican Party although, often responsible for Republican Candidates wins or loses, for that matter), James Dobson, made a stunning argument, or one might say prediction of today’s political landscape in 2007 in discussion with Fox New Talk show host, Sean Hannity. In a nutshell, Dobson argued that if the evangelicals did not endorse any Republican political candidate, and a left-of-center Democrat were elected President, the backlash to liberal politics over a period of several years, would result in a sweep of conservatism in 2012.
As one looks as polls on races in 2009 and 2010, Real Clear Politics, it is apparent that the nation is trending conservative in their choices.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Boston - Obama Draws Crowd of 4,000 in Cambridge – LA Times Offers Scathing Review of Obama on the Campaign Trail

The Boston Globe, reporting on Obama’s recent visit to aid embattled Massachusetts Governor, Deval Patrick, spoke of the “large” crowd of 4,000 that was filled with enthusiastic young people (the President spoke at MIT), also noting that there were a few protestors in the mix, among them, anti-war protestors. (You Tube Video of the President's Motorcade and Protestors below tell a different story, with very few supporters lining the street, and perhaps an under reported number of protestors doing the same) The Globe’s pool reporter, Matt Visor, covered the Presidential visit, citing the fundraiser and the fact that it would generate approximately $600,0000 to the Patrick Campaign, as well as Tim Murray (Lieutenant Governor) and the Massachusetts Democrat Party.

One has to understand that the President was in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in one of the bluest States, where a Presidential visit would draw crowds from both the University and elsewhere. The University alone has approximately 10,000 graduate and undergraduate students (Source MIT), therefore, it appears that the majority of the “crowd of 4,000” was local to Cambridge.

This begs the question – is the party over?

Apparently, this has been occurring elsewhere, and is now referred to as ”Obama Hangover” by those very incumbents who the President is attempting to “help”. The main point of his visits to the various states has been fundraising, but to what end? The race that may be the easiest for him to “aid” would be New Jersey, where incumbent Corzine, comes the closest (poll wise) to staying in his job, although he has dismal approval ratings. His trips to Massachusetts, Connecticut and specifically Virginia, may be, for all intents and purposes, a lost cause, as Virginia appears to be lost and with New Jersey, the outcome will be settled in two weeks, Massachusetts and Connecticut, although elections are in 2010, may be an even harder sell, with Chris Dodd and Deval Patrick facing extremely tough campaigns with very uncertain outcomes. The lack of independent crowds lining the streets to welcome the President to their specific state is what may be most telling – outside of the fundraisers and the on-campus visit, there appears to be little to no interest in the President – with the exception of media coverage.

The Los Angeles Times converge of Obama hitting the campaign trail, entitled “Hello, Boston! Obama stumps for troubled pal, Gov. Deval Patrick, then on to help troubled Chris Dodd” is a scathing review of the President on the campaign trail, going into the fact that fundraising is primary, and that he is bringing in less than stellar results, along with a question as to “how much is this costing the taxpayer?” Interesting to see the growing critics coming from, for all intents and purposes, “mainstream media”, but more so the lack of enthusiasm in general for a sitting President perceived as being such a “rock star”. It is the “American Idol Syndrome” that allows for Andy Warhol’s, 15 minutes of fame, that may why those pesky “masses” aren’t appearing in droves when the President in any given state for a “Drive By”, the rest of the populace has been steadily losing patience, as his approval ratings are under 50%, a far cry from the robust 65% he enjoyed on his inauguration day, only ten months ago. This tells us that the President, as head of his political party, has lost the all-important and growing Independent (or Unenrolled) voter who will, in all likelihood, decide the races in New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Virginia.

"Crowd in Boston for Obama's Motorcade"

Protestors in Boston

Amazon Picks

Massachusetts Conservative Feminist - Degrees of Moderation and Sanity Headline Animator

FEEDJIT Live Traffic Map

Contact Me:

Your Name
Your Email Address