Saturday, March 17, 2012

The Politician as Rock Star Phenomena – Santorum Family Caught by Amateur Paparazzi Poolside – You know You’re the Front Runner When…..

The family photo given to Buzz Feed - shows Mitt Romney (sort-of shirtless) in a pool either at his home, or on vacation - the point family photo are released - from buzz feed, photo Laura Romney

First the photograph went up on the drudge report – with the headline “Rico Rick”, since it is no secret Matt Drudge has gone over the ledge for Mitt Romney, one has to question his motives (See Mississippi Race called for Mitt Romney at approximately 4pm eastern time on Drudge Report – with zero links to any source.) anytime there is a “possible negative regarding Santorum”. However, in this case, that aside, the fact that someone on a cruise ship just had to snap a picture of the family speaks volumes about the candidate. This is the first “paparazzi” type photo taken of the GOP Presidential Candidate, and as far as this blog is aware, no other GOP candidates have had their photo’s snapped in this very typical paparazzi fashion.

The picture is at the website Buzz Feed, and the Senator reacted to his photo being taken in the audio below.

The photo itself, although amateurish, depicts the Senator in a lounge chair poolside, while with family, one of his sons in the water and a glimpse of his wife Karen seated next to him – the focus of the photo is obviously the Senator. The jump up over the bushes to get a shot, any shot, is present – as is the possibility of these shots from paparazzi (amateur or not) becoming more prevalent as the Senator has become the focal point in the GOP nomination process. In addition, he is the youngest of the four running, therefore, family or not, it would be less interesting to say shoot Newt Gingrich poolside, or say Ron Paul – although a note to those two who are still in the race, may happen. The alleged front-runner, Mitt Romney, has yet to be caught – there are “casual photos” of the Romney’s that exists, however, they are obviously controlled family photos with no element of surprise. Therefore, there appears to be either a lack of interest.

The media and , of course, the Romney Campaign, continues to pound away on the Senator’s take on social issues, most recently Internet Porn – This was recently brought up by the publisher of Red Mass Group, a local MA Republican blog – via Facebook: “Rick Santorum yesterday. by attacking internet porn, put in jeopardy his standing in the coveted "men 18-120 who have internet access demographic."

The fact that Romney and Gingrich both spoke out in the same vein was noted, and elicited this stunning response: “the difference is Romney and Gingrich don't mean it, and even if they do won't put any political energy behind.”

The actual site offers up a great deal of hot button issues that should make anyone’s blood boil, most of these are state related, however, it is obvious that Romney supporters are in the vein of the Democrats, attacking with a say anything and hope it sticks mentality. Perhaps this is due to the fact that Romney’s donation emails are now going out with the Barack Obama signature “enter a chance to have lunch with Mitt” for a $5.00 donation.

Meanwhile the Senator from Pennsylvania brushes it off – another day being in the #1 spot – one might argue that Romney is the front-runner, however if this were true, the MSN and the Romney surrogates, would not be simpatico in their heated anti-Santorum rhetoric. It’s to the point where one cannot tell if the anti-Santorum rhetoric is coming from Chicago or Boston.

The Video Interview from Buzz Feed omits the entire photo here on where it is obviously a family moment

Friday, March 16, 2012

2012 GOP Update – Romney Campaign low on Cash- Polls Romney Negative Ads Kill Approval – Illinois Now the “Next Must Win” State – Frontrunner?

Romney with his teleprompter, Campaign Short on Cash (AP) image 1st Republic14th Star blog

According to the AP the Mitt Romney Campaign is strapped for cash – while his main opponent, Rick Santorum is out campaigning, Romney is busy trying to raise funds to keep going.

“Romney has scaled back expenses, trimmed field staff in some cases and begun to count more on free media coverage to reach voters. And he's still relying on an allied super political action committee to supplement his spending on expensive TV ads.”
“The once-lopsided money race between the top two Republican candidates has never been closer. For the month of February, Romney boasted his second-best fundraising month ever, taking in $11.5 million. Santorum, who has a vastly smaller organization to support, wasn't far off, with $9 million.”
Romney, who arrives in Puerto Rico Friday, March 16, was forced to spend two days privately courting donors in the New York area.
On Wednesday, Romney had five finance events in New York, all packed, raising about $3 million, with more Thursday. Wednesday "was the best day we've had so far," said New York Jets owner Woody Johnson, who accompanied Romney to multiple events.
But that money is badly needed to refill coffers that had sunk close to their lowest levels since Romney launched his presidential effort last year.
The campaign stopped conducting expensive polling ahead of the Michigan primary. Instead, it now counts on lower-cost voter ID phone calls, which aides contend are nearly as accurate as internal polls. Romney also stopped using the 150-seat plane that could accommodate the press after Super Tuesday and is instead flying with a small group of aides and Secret Service agents on a smaller and cheaper aircraft.
Further, his staff is pursing what it calls creative ways to maximize free television coverage to supplement a flood of paid television advertising. Romney notified local media, for example, that he's scheduled to arrive at the San Juan airport Friday at 2:30 p.m., although there are no formal remarks or events planned for that time. That's not typical for the buttoned-down campaign with the tightly controlled media schedule. The AP via Cleveland Plain Dealer

The tactic of negative ads hammering every single Romney opponent backfired in 2008, and now, Romney is faced with the same situation – polls indicate that the more Romney attacks his opponents, the less favorable he becomes – exit polls in both Mississippi and Alabama showed that the negative ads run against Santorum and Gingrich by Romney’s Pac gave him a net loss in both states Scripps News.

Now, with Illinois looming as the next “Make it or Break it for Romney”, his campaign is now increasing spending in Illinois - to date he has spent 3.4 million on ads in Illinois (WSJ). In addition
The polls in Illinois show a tight race between Romney and Rick Santorum, with Gingrich polling at 12% and Ron Paul in single digits. As the primary is held Tuesday, with Romney hoping for the Urban and wealthier suburbs to push him over the edge, his continued use of negative advertising may actually give Santorum a boost in those areas – similar to what occurred in Mississippi where Romney was favored to win heavily in the Urban areas, while Santorum would take the more rural areas – that is not what occurred – Romney favored to win, fell to 3rd place.

What happens if Romney loses Illinois? – According to Alan J. Steinberg, who served in the EPA under the Bush administration Santorum will become the new favorite to win the nomination.(New Jersey .com)

Of course, each state becomes the next “must win” – as Californians are now looking towards their June 5th Primary as the deciding factor in the race. accoreding to the Washington Post - However, that may be another close one, as polls are varying wildly at this moment, PPP has Santorum within 5 points, while Rasmussen has Romney leading leading handily.

Of course, before the campaigns get to California, (who holds the next to last primary), they face off in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Wisconsin, New York, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, North Carolina, Indiana (where officials have placed Santorum on the ballot) – the majority of the ramming states favor Santorum (poll wise) and geographically.

Therefore as Romney has to attend fund-raisers, Santorum is hitting the campaign trail – While Romney is outspending Santorum 10 to 1 with negative advertising, Romney’s approval numbers are dropping, each state is now becoming the “must win State” for the former Massachusetts Governor – this adds up to the man currently holding the most delegates (combined actual delegates won and super delegates (those establishment Republicans who have signed on with Romney out of some idiotic notation that moderates win general elections – they suffer from short term memory – see Dole, McCain, etc.), at (490 approximate) to Santorum’s 200 (approximate), waging a delegate war of attrition similar to the Ron Paul Model. In other words, at the end of his campaign - We know where Ron Paul’s numbers are now: in single digits in every state since Virginia, where he appeared alone on the Ballot with Romney and had a respectable showing.

2012 is nothing more than a protracted repeat of the 2008 election cycle, and one is now realizing, when the money is gone, and the campaign is resorting to posting on blogs and new sites where every seemingly negative article on Romney is an invitation to use the “Mormon Card” , the desperation of the Romney campaign is now apparent.

The question going forward is which candidate is truly the Front Runner and will Illinois really settle that question? (Keep in Mind that Missouri caucuses March 17th (Santorum Favored), Puerto Rico on the 18th (No Polling Data, but again, the base which supports Santorum is more populace that the rank and file Republicans, could go either way), and then Illinois (polls are tight) followed by Louisiana (Santorum). This may make the Nutmeg State of Connecticut the next Must-win State for the former MA Governor.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Illinois & Puerto Rico GOP Primaries – Romney VS. Santorum – Polling and GOP Distribution Indicate Race Too Close to Call in IL, is PR Competitive?

It's down to two: Santorum and Romney - image

One of the latest articles on the likely outcome of the Illinois GOP primary comes from the Des Moines Iowa Register. The title” Illinois next big GOP presidential battleground”, suggests that the most recent polling data available, a Chicago Tribune Poll, which shows Romney leading Santorum outside the margin of error by one point, with Gingrich and Ron Paul barely registering, is at this point anyone’s game. The fact that the state is divided by GOP population and candidate preference is what makes this race difficult to call with 50% of the more moderate GOP voters in the Chicago area and suburbs, and 50% of the more conservatives holding the rest of the state. In addition, as in other recent polls such as Mississippi and Alabama which suggested Rick Santorum would finish 3rd, 46% of the voters, as of March 11th, were likely to change their minds before the primary: with the current polls showing:

“And the poll showed Romney is doing well in the suburbs. In Cook County, he leads Santorum 39 percent to 30 percent. In the more heavily Republican collar counties, Romney held a 39 percent to 27 percent edge.
But Santorum holds a 35 percent to 29 percent advantage in the 96 counties outside the Chicago area, where Republican voters tend to be more conservative.

The article goes on to note that the findings mirror the polling in Ohio, where Romney eked out a lead, however, in Ohio Polling, Gingrich had a slightly larger share of support at 15% (PPP) with actual results Romney, 37.9, Santorum, 37.1 and Gingrich 3rd at 14.6 (Google News). In the days leading up to the Ohio primary, Romney had split the momentum by squeaking out a lead in Michigan over Santorum, a state Romney was expected to win handily.

After the two poll-stunning victories in Mississippi and Alabama, Santorum now has an opportunity to upend Romney in Illinois – In the Tribune Poll Gingrich is at 12%, 2 points below his Ohio average. In addition, this poll was taken prior to the Santorum wins in Mississippi and Alabama, with 46% of those respondents able to have a change of heart, so to speak – this could turn into yet another surprise for Santorum going into Tuesday Race.
Romney’s PAC, is throwing its heavy handed advertising at Santorum in the Chicago Market, spending millions on negative advertising, once again, in a pattern that has become synonymous with Romney’s style. That style apparently did not pan out well for Romney in the South last weekend, so it may come as no surprise, that they are spending in a market they are sure they have votes, rather than 96% of the state where they are pretty certain they don’t. Los Angels Times

Should one candidate win 50% of the State’s voters that candidate will take all delegates, otherwise the delegates are proportioned by wins, one must have 15% of the vote in order to qualify for any delegates. What appears to have happened here is that Gingrich and Paul will have no share of delegates if they place near or below the poll latest poll numbers.

Missouri goes to the polls this weekend, where Rick Santorum is heading for a repeat win in the Show Me State, Puerto Rico is also in play, as Santorum is leaving no stone unturned – although no hard polling data is available, Puerto Rico Media suggests that Romney will have a battle on his hands with Santorum. Santorum is appealing to the conservative base, and with his recent meeting with the Governor, who endorsed Romney, he may give Romney a run for his money (or his PAC’s money). That said, according to WAPA.TV Puerto Rico a new alliance formed in Chicago last week, made up of Puerto Rican Youth for Obama, is pushing against Rick Santorum, not Romney – the newscast shown, suggests that Romney will do well with the establishment GOP, however, Santorum will do better with the broader base of Conservatives on the Island. Santorum has had previous ties to the Island, when in the Senate, and worked closely with the Governor of Puerto Rico shoring up the base.

Therefore, what we are looking at is a not so remote possibility that Santorum may, once again, deny the polls and win the state of Illinois Outright, (with 46% of the voters likely to change their minds, and Romney’s eventual nomination now in question, as well as his ability to win in the south, which is critical to a general election. Those voters in Illinois, and one suspects elsewhere, are, according to polling done in the Register, gravitating towards Santorum. He may also end up taking delegates from Romney in Puerto Rico – and the road to the nomination is looking more competitive for Santorum as times goes by. It is not improbable and growing increasingly conceivable, that between now and June, Santorum, who’s ground came is the rival of all campaigns, and is the candidate with momentum on his side, can reach the 1144 delegates necessary to win the nomination. Of note, Romney’s strategy now appears to be winning delegates, that strategy is similar in scope to the man in the 4th position, Ron Paul.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Romney Statement: “It’s going to take some sort of act of God to get to where they need to be on the nomination front.” Which Campaign is desperate?

Romney might reconsider the "inevitable" - image Telegraphs UK

Several days ago, Mitt Romney’s Campaign suggested it would “take an act of God” for Romney’s opponents to win the delegates necessary to clinch the nomination, considering Romney’s inevitable win. Apparently, with Santorum’s stunning victories in the Deep South last evening, Romney’s campaign should be careful of what they "pray" for.

Why was Santorum’s win in the Deep South stunning? He’s a born and bred Pennsylvanian with deep roots to the coal industry and a family that worked for a living, versus, Mitt Romney, who was brought up in Michigan, and although notes he had to work for a living as well, the circumstances of the son of the former Governor of the State are far different from that of grandson of coal miners. Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, a son of the south, fared slightly better than Romney but not by much.

What this tells us is that Santorum is not a regional candidate but a national candidate, a claim that cannot be made by either Romney or Gingrich. If Romney views the southern states are not friendly to his campaign, how then, can he seriously consider winning a general election? Also, without Gingrich in the race, it is evident that Santorum would have won more than 50% in critical contests (including MI and OH) and therefore, would have amassed all of the delegates. As it stands, there are enough delegates left, going into the “second half of the primary” for either Santorum and or Romney to win. However, Romney’s is not looking at friendly territory going into the next half of the process. His campaign may want to revise their memo to: "It will take an Act of God for Romney to win the Nomination.”

Santorum Wins Al, MS – Romney Run’s 3rd in South, Pick’s up Win in HI – Gingrich in Ron Paul Territory – Delegates to win: 1144, Available: 2286.

Rick Santorum speaking in Lafayette Louisiana after learning of his victory in AL and later MS - image: Reuters

Former Pennsylvania Senator, Rick Santorum won two key states in the GOP primary yesterdaytaking Mississippi and Alabama to the win column, this after the Drudge Report posted a Romney win in MS before the polls closed. Santorum continues to rack up wins in States desperately needed by the GOP to win in the general election.

Romney finished third in both states and Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, finished 2nd, in two states where, theoretically and according to pundits, Romney would have taken the “moderate” Mississippi, and Gingrich, should have taken Alabama, the State which borders his home state of Georgia. It was noted, by Gingrich, during his speech to supporters after the results were in, that both he and Santorum were besting Romney in each state by a margin of 3 to 1. Which, when one looks at the results in states such as Michigan and Ohio, where Romney eked out wins, that is the case. The problem the Speaker faces is that he has yet to win a state outside of SC and GA (his home state), while Romney is picking away at delegates as his path to the nomination (Ron Paul)

According to the AP, Romney has won Hawaii, and American Samoa.

The half-way mark in the primary will be the State of Louisiana, where Santorum gave a rousing speech last night following the Alabama results, noting he sent his daughter Elizabeth to campaign for him in Hawaii, while he will be heading to Puerto Rico and then onto Illinois, another blue collar state. The man whom the Romney campaign insisted was “desperate” and in the last stages of his campaign, apparently is the one whom Romney now has to best in order to win the nomination. Romney must do this with the remaining states favoring Santorum, especially Texas, where he leads in the polls by doubt digits and California where he is in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney. The premise that Gingrich will continue to amass one third of the vote in each of the upcoming states may be a pipe dream for both the Romney and Gingrich campaigns, as the momentum is clearly on Santorum’s side. Hypothetically and Mathematically, Santorum, should he win a majority of the remaining states, can clinch the nomination in delegates without taking the process (as Gingrich would have one believe) to the Convection.

Romney has outspent his rivals by a large margin, and his Super PAC is already running ads in Illinois, but to what avail – the negatives apparently are no longer working, and his ability to win in large urban areas against Santorum did not play out in last night’s southern primaries, where Santorum suddenly was holding his own in the urban areas, that were previously considered “Romneys". As to low voter turnout, that can be attributed to the drum beat of an “inevitable Romney victory” a theme that is hammered home by every media outlet, regardless of who wins - this is despite the fact that Romney is still holding under 50% of the delegates required to clinch the nomination. On the face of it, Romney and Gingrich, unlike Santorum, have no ground game – Santorum is busy doing retail politics, while Romney and Gingrich have PACS running negative ads, and little to no grassroots activists on their teams. This gives Santorum the decided edge in the remaining half of the states.

The delegate Count according to the AP (includes super delegates to Romney (i.e. 3 members of the National GOP committee for example) : “The partial allocation of delegates from Tuesday's voting states left Romney with 485 in The Associated Press count, out of the 1,144 needed to win the nomination. Santorum had 246, Gingrich 131 and Paul 47.

The total available delegates: 2286 (for the convention in Tampa, 2012). These include hard and soft delegate. Soft delegates are those that are not “pledged to a delegate”, while “hard delegates” are formally allocated to a candidate (source: The Green Papers). Therefore, with 2286 delegates available, for the Romney Camp to assume (or project) that the nomination is “inevitable” is nothing more han hubris or as the Santorum campaign suggests "fuzzy math".

Next up: Missouri, Louisiana, Puerto Rico and Illinois, closing out the March 2012 GOP Nomination Process.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

NYTimes: Romney Team Welcomes Gingrich in the Race – Especially in MI and AL – Analysis of a Romney Win in the Deep South.

Santorum and Romney - Santorum the Man Romney does not want to Face without a Buffer - Image

An article from the New York Times entitled ” Romney Team Sees a Plus in Gingrich’s Persistence” is the understatement of this campaign season. The man that Romney and his Super PAC went to great lengths and expense to politically destroy, (as they do with anyone who so much as flirts with passing Mitt Romney is the polls (see Rick Santorum), now is thrilled that the former Speaker of the House has been persistent – it is paying off – for Team Romney. The facts are such that it is apparent, without Gingrich in the race; the process may not have turned out to favor Mitt Romney at the moment, especially in the South. Some quick stats:

As of March 11, there have been 22 GOP Primary or Caucuses, out of which, Santorum has places 1st or 2nd in 14. In those same 22 races, the Speaker finished last or second to last 18 times, losing to Ron Paul 12 times. According to the New York Times: Romney’s Team:

“If Mr. Romney has a chance of winning the Alabama primary on Tuesday — his advisers believed the odds were strong enough to arrange a last-minute campaign visit on the eve of the election — it is largely because Mr. Gingrich’s candidacy remains alive.”
“Mr. Gingrich’s resilience has so far allowed Mr. Romney to dodge the head-to-head competition that Rick Santorum has been craving.”

(And the kicker – for those familiar with Texas Hold-em)

“The Alabama and Mississippi primaries will not settle the Republican nominating contest, but the results could help determine whether Mr. Romney is able to sidestep what he has feared most: a dominant, singular rival with the ability to unify the ranks of conservatives who have been slow in warming to the notion of Mr. Romney becoming the party’s presidential nominee.
New York Times

What one can take away from this piece in the Times is a) Gingrich is helping Romney, by buffering Romney from having to compete against Santorum (who clocked him in Missouri’s early contest – when it was just a two-way competition - the Romney Team issued the most bizarre statement at the time (paraphrasing) “He does not do well one on one in primary contests” (referring to Romney).

Apparently this is a prevailing theme. Therefore, b) what the GOP now has is a Candidate that cannot win the nation (and this includes the important swing states in the middle country) unless there is a buffer (in this case Gingrich) between Romney and a main opponent.

Gingrich is the key to a Romney nomination – either knowingly or unknowingly – most are touting Gingrich’s arrogance, some are suggesting that, as a GOP stalwart, he is running the race to protect Romney – one must keep in mind, regardless of who the candidate is, they all know one another in some way or form from past competitions, visits to Washington or from their time in the House or the Senate. They are all, to a man (sadly no woman) Republican, even Ron Paul, otherwise he’d run as a Libertarian, similar to Bernie Sanders in Vermont who runs as a Socialist.

Following this argument that Romney cannot win if Santorum is the only one in the race, how on earth does the man expect to win as a “moderate” against Obama? It is not without a bit of history apparently left aside, that moderates do not fare well in general elections (Dole, McCain, the most recent), while Conservatives, those that scare the pants out of the media because they are too far right – win in generals.

Case in point: Ronald Reagan

Who was deemed by the media to be a clown and dangerous far right zealot, and then the GOP picked up the momentum by screaming for a brokered convention as Reagan was dangerous – his last opponent, one George H.W. Bush left the race in late May of 1980 – and the rest as they say – is history. The long gas lines, and or lack of gas at the pumps, unemployment and lack of a reasonable foreign policy under Carter did not hurt Reagan in the last. What one can bring away from this history lesson is the following: A strong Conservative, such a Santorum stands a better chance, despite the GOP, in besting the President, the similarities between President’s Carter and Obama are so eerily similar, it is as if it happened ten years ago, not thirty. To those of us who remember the infighting of the Republican’s, the lengthily process of the primary and caucuses (all deemed too long, with calls for Reagent o get out of the race and let George H Bush take his rightful place), did not hurt the “Gipper” one bit. It is not the popular rhetoric that is important in this case, it is the look back, to see what the future holds that is of import. Santorum, is obviously not Ronald Reagan, he is Rick Santorum, someone new, but with a brand of Conservatism that is similar in scope, and the reaction from both the GOP and the press gives credence to the fact that he is one that is feared most in this election – feared to upset the applecart that is Washington. Not Romney and certainly not Gingrich. If and only if, the anti-Romney electorate that exits in the remaining races, wakes up and understands that Gingrich, most likely though no fault of his own, is helping Romney, and they are voters that would have Santorum as a second choice, they should vote their second choice. Otherwise, they are, in essence, helping the man they want least, to the nomination.

As to the numbers:

There are sufficient states left to weigh in, to see Santorum gain the necessary votes by the June primary (the same time frame in 2008 between Clinton and Obama)to clinch the nomination – Gingrich could, like Romney in 2008, release his delegates to Santorum, (Romney released them to McCain), (”Romney Endorses McCain, Releases Delegates urge they support McCain”) – This pushed Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee out of the fight, and gave McCain the necessary momentum to win the nomination – by end of May.

Lastly, the balance of the states to weigh in are not exactly Romney States, at least not if Gingrich continues to hold steadfast and remains in the race. Understanding that Speaker Gingrich is a man of great intelligence, who is known as a Conservative, he surely understands that there is no way he can, even if he wins, Alabama and Mississippi, win the nomination – he would have to take the majority of the states left, and then run it to the Convention. If this were the scenario, a room full of pro-Romney “super-delegates” most of whom never forgave Gingrich for kicking George H Bush to the curb (on numerous occasions), would nominate Mitt Romney in a heart-beat. It is a lose-lose situation at best, one that the Obama administration and the media are counting on.

As Speaker Gingrich is a renowned Historian, and astute politician, surely he must be keenly aware of these facts. Therefore, it is up to the voters of Alabama and Mississippi, Louisiana and Hawaii, to place their vote for a candidate who best matches their beliefs, and one they believe can win the general. Polling shows that both Santorum and Romney, as of this past week (these are rolling polls, canning daily), can best the President, and more importantly that Romney cannot win without Gingrich – therefore if they are anti-Romney (based on his flip-flops, his inability to attract the necessary voters to win a general, and his record as Governor (fees are taxes), to cast their vote for Santorum. If this occurs, it would be the beginning of the end of the Romney campaign, and the GOP would have another 30 year candidate whom they do not believe can win, simply because he stands for everything that the GOP is supposed to stand for.

Monday, March 12, 2012

Last GOP Polls AL, MS: Too Close to Call – Gingrich/Santorum split Conservative vote: Public Policy Polling – Gingrich Now in Race to Defeat Santorum

Romney Santorum and Gingrich - headed for AL/MS - image

The last poll out of Public Policy Polling, shows a virtual statistical tie between Gingrich, Romney and Santorum in both Mississippi and Alabama ahead of the Tuesday Primary. The fact that Gingrich in the race is splitting the Conservative Vote, would allow Mitt Romney a win in two states where it was never considered a possibility – the deep south. Polls for the Alabama contest have varied, from a Gingrich win, to a Santorum win, depending upon the pollster –however, with PPP weighing in – it appears that it will be another nail biter, all three candidates fall within the margin of error. Santorum has the highest favorability ratings at 60% with both men and women polled, while Romney has an average of a 53% favorability rating, losing women, by 2 points, with more men finding him favorable at 54%. Gingrich has a 58% favorability rating, again pulling higher numbers with male voters than female (56 to 61%) – Logic follows if the women get out to vote, Santorum will have the edge – 26% of the 95% who have not voted, are not entirely committed to their initial candidate, they may change their mind between now and tomorrow.

In Mississippi it is approximately the same statistics, with Gingrich holding a slightly better Favorability rating, than Santorum by 1 point. Again, 25% are likely to change their minds between now and tomorrow. Understanding this poll was taken prior to Santorum’s Kansas win, and Romney’s win in WY and the Islands.

Although Gingrich stands no chance of picking up any additional states, outside of these two, he insists he will stay in the race, now to defeat Rick Santorum, not Mitt Romney( This constitutes a real change of strategy from the former Speaker of the House, who initially said he was in the race to stop Moderate GOP Establishment Candidate, Mitt Romney. From this perspective,it is understood that the former Speaker of the House is one of the brightest in the business - therefore, he understands he is splitting the conservative vote, has no chance to win, but is blocking Santorum knowing he is handing Mitt Romney the nomination. Otherwise, one must be tempted to put Gingrich in the Ron Paul column, which, is at best difficult to do, considering Paul actually has a dedicated following.

Final note, Moderate Lyndsay Graham (see Olympia Snow, Sue Collins and of course, John McCain) has decided that the race is over: Give Mitt Romney the win already - the math does not add up! just crown Mitt and get it over with. However, he may want to hold onto that thought, as Illinois is on deck, and Romney is now locked in a battle for first with Santorum (in Lincoln land. Gingrich is a distant third with Ron Paul picking up the rear

Sunday, March 11, 2012

2012 GOP Update: Is Gingrich on Team Romney?

Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney 2012 Campaign - image Mother

Mitt Romney’s website: Mitt Romney Central, is nowfeaturing Newt Gingrich’s anti-Santorum web video – a poorly spliced version with one segment that shows Santorum supporting Arlen Specter for his vote on supreme court justices, while the video slices it to support for Obama Care.

One can be certain that all of the candidates have supported individuals and/or legislation that has been objectionable to Conservatives at some point in their Career – with Gingrich spending the most time in Washington, he may have crossed the aisle and or made compromises that would appear to be anti-Conservative. Romney, Santorum and Gingrich all had to work with Democrats, and did so, with some of the aforementioned, maintaining their principles, while others, not so much.

This Romney/Gingrich Theory just took on more juice as the word from Fox News is that Gingrich will stay in the race to the bitter end, even if he continues to loose – the only one that Newt Gingrich is helping in doing this is Romney – Gingrich’s voters would most likely split, but the majority going towards Santorum, given Santorum the edge.

It may be that Gingrich is growing more obstinate due to the calls from the public and Team Santorum to suspend his race as there is no clear way in which, at this point, Gingrich can win the delegates necessary to do much of anything – he is headed into Ron Paul territory with each primary or caucus. It is difficult to imagine that a politically savvy individual like Newt Gingrich would be doing this out of some sort of “spite”; however, one might see him doing so for political position. While these “rumors” of a Romney Gingrich (taking one for the team, so to speak) alliance pick up steam, the former Speaker is doing little to mitigate the mounting circumstantial evidence that he is either crazy (not likely) or in bed with Romney. It happened before, in 2008 Romney considered Newt Gingrich as a V.P. Running Mate, although a bit premature considering he failed to get the nomination(Desert News)

Note: This blog has watched all GOP candidates closely, and has actively supported the Gingrich candidacy – based on policy and the fact that one would pay to see that man debate Obama, given he had sufficient sleep. However, he was so badly damaged by Mitt Romney’s negatives and his lackluster debate performance before the Florida Primaries, with subsequent primary loses, and made his candidacy no longer viable in this opinion. However, the stronger performances of Rick Santorum and specifically his economic and foreign policy stands, made him the most viable of all candidates, when combining the ability to win a general election, the legislation hat he produced that was consistent in regards to his State (therefore he represented the people who hired him), and finally, the superficial, he is the youngest, photogenic candidate (for those who vote solely on the American Idol ticket. The defining moment was his shot at both Romney and Gingrich during the Florida debate. As a fan of the former Speaker (especially for the work he did during the Clinton Presidency), one can only hope these rumors are unfounded, and that the Speaker understands it’s time to take one for the nation, not the “Team”.

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