2012 GOP Update – Romney Campaign low on Cash- Polls Romney Negative Ads Kill Approval – Illinois Now the “Next Must Win” State – Frontrunner?

Romney with his teleprompter, Campaign Short on Cash (AP) image 1st Republic14th Star blog

According to the AP the Mitt Romney Campaign is strapped for cash – while his main opponent, Rick Santorum is out campaigning, Romney is busy trying to raise funds to keep going.

“Romney has scaled back expenses, trimmed field staff in some cases and begun to count more on free media coverage to reach voters. And he's still relying on an allied super political action committee to supplement his spending on expensive TV ads.”
“The once-lopsided money race between the top two Republican candidates has never been closer. For the month of February, Romney boasted his second-best fundraising month ever, taking in $11.5 million. Santorum, who has a vastly smaller organization to support, wasn't far off, with $9 million.”
Romney, who arrives in Puerto Rico Friday, March 16, was forced to spend two days privately courting donors in the New York area.
On Wednesday, Romney had five finance events in New York, all packed, raising about $3 million, with more Thursday. Wednesday "was the best day we've had so far," said New York Jets owner Woody Johnson, who accompanied Romney to multiple events.
But that money is badly needed to refill coffers that had sunk close to their lowest levels since Romney launched his presidential effort last year.
The campaign stopped conducting expensive polling ahead of the Michigan primary. Instead, it now counts on lower-cost voter ID phone calls, which aides contend are nearly as accurate as internal polls. Romney also stopped using the 150-seat plane that could accommodate the press after Super Tuesday and is instead flying with a small group of aides and Secret Service agents on a smaller and cheaper aircraft.
Further, his staff is pursing what it calls creative ways to maximize free television coverage to supplement a flood of paid television advertising. Romney notified local media, for example, that he's scheduled to arrive at the San Juan airport Friday at 2:30 p.m., although there are no formal remarks or events planned for that time. That's not typical for the buttoned-down campaign with the tightly controlled media schedule. The AP via Cleveland Plain Dealer

The tactic of negative ads hammering every single Romney opponent backfired in 2008, and now, Romney is faced with the same situation – polls indicate that the more Romney attacks his opponents, the less favorable he becomes – exit polls in both Mississippi and Alabama showed that the negative ads run against Santorum and Gingrich by Romney’s Pac gave him a net loss in both states Scripps News.

Now, with Illinois looming as the next “Make it or Break it for Romney”, his campaign is now increasing spending in Illinois - to date he has spent 3.4 million on ads in Illinois (WSJ). In addition
The polls in Illinois show a tight race between Romney and Rick Santorum, with Gingrich polling at 12% and Ron Paul in single digits. As the primary is held Tuesday, with Romney hoping for the Urban and wealthier suburbs to push him over the edge, his continued use of negative advertising may actually give Santorum a boost in those areas – similar to what occurred in Mississippi where Romney was favored to win heavily in the Urban areas, while Santorum would take the more rural areas – that is not what occurred – Romney favored to win, fell to 3rd place.

What happens if Romney loses Illinois? – According to Alan J. Steinberg, who served in the EPA under the Bush administration Santorum will become the new favorite to win the nomination.(New Jersey .com)

Of course, each state becomes the next “must win” – as Californians are now looking towards their June 5th Primary as the deciding factor in the race. accoreding to the Washington Post - However, that may be another close one, as polls are varying wildly at this moment, PPP has Santorum within 5 points, while Rasmussen has Romney leading leading handily.

Of course, before the campaigns get to California, (who holds the next to last primary), they face off in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Wisconsin, New York, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, North Carolina, Indiana (where officials have placed Santorum on the ballot) – the majority of the ramming states favor Santorum (poll wise) and geographically.

Therefore as Romney has to attend fund-raisers, Santorum is hitting the campaign trail – While Romney is outspending Santorum 10 to 1 with negative advertising, Romney’s approval numbers are dropping, each state is now becoming the “must win State” for the former Massachusetts Governor – this adds up to the man currently holding the most delegates (combined actual delegates won and super delegates (those establishment Republicans who have signed on with Romney out of some idiotic notation that moderates win general elections – they suffer from short term memory – see Dole, McCain, etc.), at (490 approximate) to Santorum’s 200 (approximate), waging a delegate war of attrition similar to the Ron Paul Model. In other words, at the end of his campaign - We know where Ron Paul’s numbers are now: in single digits in every state since Virginia, where he appeared alone on the Ballot with Romney and had a respectable showing.

2012 is nothing more than a protracted repeat of the 2008 election cycle, and one is now realizing, when the money is gone, and the campaign is resorting to posting on blogs and new sites where every seemingly negative article on Romney is an invitation to use the “Mormon Card” , the desperation of the Romney campaign is now apparent.

The question going forward is which candidate is truly the Front Runner and will Illinois really settle that question? (Keep in Mind that Missouri caucuses March 17th (Santorum Favored), Puerto Rico on the 18th (No Polling Data, but again, the base which supports Santorum is more populace that the rank and file Republicans, could go either way), and then Illinois (polls are tight) followed by Louisiana (Santorum). This may make the Nutmeg State of Connecticut the next Must-win State for the former MA Governor.

2012 GOP Update – Santorum Praise and Derision from the Press – Love & Fear for Obama - Santorum’s Key to Winning the Nomination and the Election –

Santorum on the Stump - image from Time Magazine


Analysis

Rick Santorum is leading the GOP pack of Presidential hopefuls in the national polls (Gallup by 10 points), in Michigan Santorum leads Romney by 5 points, in Ohio he’s leading by 7 (CNN), and in Texas he “dominates” the field with 45% to Gingrich’s 17, Romney’s 16 and Ron Paul’s 14% University of Texas. The Santorum surge has brought about great scrutiny from the press, which, while praising him on one hand, is deriding him on the other – specifically about social issues.

In Michigan and elsewhere, he is being barraged by negative campaign ads from Mitt Romney surrogates, the former Governor from Massachusetts is looking for a pickup on Super Tuesday, on last night’s edition of Fox News “On the Record” a Romney campaign spokesman began to downplay the importance of Magician, a similar tactic used after Romney lost both Colorado and Minnesota (two states where polling was similar to where it is now in both Arizona (Romney and Santorum are tied), and Michigan).

The problem for the Romney Campaign is that Super Tuesday does not allow the former Massachusetts Governor many options with a few exceptions, and that data is based on his performance in 2008, for the most part. Alaska is allegedly Romney’s, however, Georgia home state to Newt Gingrich, finds Santorum leading, the same in Idaho, in Massachusetts, the Santorum Grassroots Team is blanketing the state in advance of Super Tuesday and shows a strong organization on the ground, although one Suffolk University poll on Statewide elections,shows the former Governor leading Santorum by double digits in the GOP segment of the poll with Santorum at 15% (2nd in the state), however in the Presidential match-up section, Romney leads Santorum by 39% to 32% against Obama, among likely voters (which includes Republicans’ Independents and Democrats., North Dakota, no data - on Ohio, Santorum leads, on Oklahoma, Santorum leads in double digits, in Tennessee, Santorum leads, again by a significant margin, in Vermont, there is no data, and finally in Virginia, Romney is alone on the ballot with Ron Paul, no data.

Therefore, Super Tuesday may make or break the Romney Campaign, specifically if these numbers hold, or increase, and even giving him Virgina, Massachusetts, Alaska and North Dakota (We’ll throw in Vermont), it is unclear how Romney can possibly be considered the front runner, and it will also give him an opportunity to reassess the campaign.

Here in lays the crux of the matter, the Press:
In the Leader Post News, Santorum is referred to as “The Working Man’s Warrior” acknowledging his strength with the blue color base of the Democrat Party, and his strength in his position on job creation and economics, however, the paper goes on to speak about the big ballyhoo of taken out of context remarks, made by Santorum regarding Obama and the “theology of environmentalism” over the needs of the working class. It was obvious that Santorum was speaking metaphorically regarding the preference of the President to side with environmental groups against the manufacturers, to those who follow current events, it is no secret, but apparently, to the news, it comes as quite a shock, that the President might actually be called out for nixing an energy pipeline from Canada throw the US, in favor of an environmental group – especially in light of the fact that the cost per gallon of gas in the U.S. is projected to hit well over $5.00 per gallon this summer. If that is a tactical choice by the President, it is perhaps one of the worst political moves of the century thus far. For the media to make the reach from Santorum speaking about a political “theology” and the video clearly shows that was the intent, the fact that he has, over the past several years, acknowledge the Presidents Christianity, has apparently, fell on deaf ears! The press, living up to its reputation as somewhat partial to the President, is further endangering its subscriber base.

Take for example Time Magazines focus on Santorum and the fact that he does not shy away from Social Issues (the title) – again taking statements out of context, which comes as no surprise given the Magazine’s proclivity to feature the President on almost every other Cover.

The fact that the left, and the President’s surrogates are now actively speaking out against Santorum (almost verbatim on the issues taken out of context above), clearly shows that they are trying to prepare for his nomination as the GOP candidate. Previously, they had focused on Mitt Romney, amassing political research for months in preparation for the “inevitable Romney Candidacy”. Now they are playing “catch-up” and all they have are words that were taken out of context, and Santorum’s personal choice of Religion. The problem facing the Democrats is that, outside of the highly paid national union organizations, the rank and file find Santorum to be appealing, specifically when it comes to his plans for manufacturing – being a Catholic, practicing or not, does not hurt, especially in the states where Romney might expect to do very well. There will be two identifiers for those blue color voters in such states that were once manufacturing powerhouses, and where the jobs no longer exist, or if they do, they are in such small numbers that it is not significant. The Catholic voting bloc is normally Democrat, however, in a season where there is high unemployment, underemployment and high gasoline that Catholic bloc, especially with Obama’s recent affront to the Church, may see a shift towards a Republican candidate, especially if that Candidate is Catholic and makes no apologies for being a Catholic (also refreshing).

What to look for should Santorum win Michigan or Arizona, and then pick up half of the States on Super Tuesday – a change in strategy from the Romney Campaign with what little time they have left, to a less scored earth policy when it comes to their opponents, (otherwise, there will be no Romney Campaign), and an increase in Obama Surrogates and the Press (Obama Surrogates) going after Rick Santorum with everything possible. Given the language and the quick jump to Santorum from the Obama campaign, gives the signal that they would prefer not to run against Santorum – the Social Issues are only a small part of the campaign, and Santorum’s record reflects that he has voted in the interest of women and the elderly, and has the ability to separate his personal religious beliefs from governing. On economics, and foreign policy, as well as domestic policy, he is on target with the American public, crossing party lines.

Of course, there is the final debate performance before all primaries including Super Tuesday this Wednesday night on CNN – that debate may make a difference for any one candidate – as Santorum has grown stronger in the debate arena, and will, most likely be placed next to Romney - it will be an opportunity to either compare and contrast, or fend off attacks by the former Massachusetts Governor.