2012 Update – The Natural Order in Campaigns – Gingrich as the Non-GOP Establishment Candidate - Obama Campaign Hubris In the Face of the Inevitable

Gingrich, Paul and Romney - The Nominating Process Begins in Four Weeks - image cnn.com


It goes without saying that a political campaign, much like a beauty pageant, is nothing more or nothing less than a contest, albeit one of immense import. The fact is that candidates in a primary must compete against one another for the top slot and that will evoke mud-slinging in the hopes of gaining points, especially as there are only weeks left before the primaries and caucuses begin. Therefore, one will find that lower tier and top tier candidates will release ads “knocking” one another, or if one candidate is in the lead, knocking one only. These advertisements and press releases, becoming more frequent, sound more desperate than honest – specifically as the aforementioned become more shrill and or “informative” as the time to vote draws nearer. (See: ”Game-Iowa GOP Attacks Target Gingrich” (Yahoo News) . It’s a game that is as old as the nominating process, and one can anticipate much the same in a national election (as the mud-slinging was just as, if not more, egregious when there were only thirteen states).

However, if the establishment political class (those who are in government) and a media hostile to one political ideology and/or party, attempt to knock a front-runner this close to the beginning of the voting process, one can bet the House (and possibly the Senate) that there is good reason – that individual is most likely not going to “play ball” with those entrenched, those elite, and those who would crown a “king” over allowing the “masses” to decide whom they felt would best lead the nation forward. It is obvious that the anti-establishment candidate is one Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, the current GOP front-runner, and the individual preferred by the political class is one Mitt Romney, the former one-term Governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts who has in recent weeks received endorsements from U.S. Senators, the Bush Family, Dan Quayle (former President H.W. Bush’s, Vice President), numerous pundits and the Fox News Network (which may explain the sudden surge in audience share that CNN is experiencing.)

In an AP article via the Boston Globe “Gingrich Surge Unnerves Some Republican Lawmakers” one is under the impression that Gingrich’s Peers of twenty-odd years ago (that is an established politician – or entrenched.) are horrified at the prospect of Gingrich as leader of the Free World, and notwithstanding, leader of the Republican Party. These few politicians (the five that are named), are not all in the Congress, but in the Senate where they would not have worked quit as closely with Gingrich over his entire career. They point to personal issues, and make statements that are vague or not particularly germane (given the time Gingrich has been out of the Congress) but nevertheless demeaning - and to a man they all support Mitt Romney. As one reads the second page, however, one runs into a similar group - this one a bit more pragmatic; recalling a different Gingrich, one who was focused, one who broke Gridlock. That is the Gingrich the political class fears – one who will get the job done, whether it fits their agenda or no.

In an email from the Romney Campaign, both Mitt Romney and former Governor of New Hampshire John Sununu and Senator Jim Talent will hold a press conference call outlining the many issues those three might have with Newt Gingrich’s “record”. That record is available online at The Library of Congress, and anyone can go back through Newt Gingrich’s entire career to find – baseless allegations being made by those who are in a political campaign.

It is interesting that there is little mention of the fact that the Massachusetts Secretary of State is making available correspondence from Mitt Romney’s time in office. These are hard copy documents, as the then, Romney Gubernatorial staff, purchased Commonwealth Computers and summarily wiped all email correspondence from the hard-drives (see article:here>). This is the type of politics that those living in the 16th and 17th century would find somewhat average, a bit of backstabbing, fabrication and business as usual.

It is for Gingrich, if he is to continue to be the front-runner, to either ignore or answer – to date, he has focused more on policy rather than political attacks on his record dating back two decades. What voters need to ask themselves, and one can believe they may have already done so given the polls, is “Can man (or woman) truly change their minds on an issue in twenty years?” The answer is obvious: anyone with an once of common sense understands that human nature and age and the factors of changes in society, advances in science and technology, allows individuals to change their minds, religion and even political affiliation. Changing one’s mind over the course of two decades is, therefore, not unusual. What is unusual is a change of heart and mind over a period of a year, or a month – that would be someone who could be categorized as a political opportunist.

What is perhaps the most amusing take on the rise of Gingrich and Romney as "underdog" comes from the New York Times in concert with the Obama Campaign Manger, David Axelrod. Axelrod seems to believe that the Democrats are somehow able to influence the Republican Race. That is, of course, somewhat possible (See Mitt Romney accusing Deval Patrick for leaking Romney’s staff erasing their computers contents to the Boston Globe as “politically motivated”.) Then again, with a historically low approval rating, four weeks before the primary and caucus season begins, the Presidents’ campaign should be doing their best to undercut the opposition, down to the last candidate, at the lowest level. The odds are not exactly in their favor, and it is David Axelrod’s job to say the “darndest things”.

What history has proven is a man in last place in any major political party primary, may end up being the winner - that a party will have a clear winner at a nominating Convention and choose to use a method involving “Super Delegates” (those of the political class), to choose another candidate (One who would more easily “fit” what the political “party leaders” desired, rather than say, nominate the woman who actually won the nomination). It is certain that poll numbers can and do change, and that the fortunes of a candidate do not necessarily ride on the polls (unless they have a 20 point advantage four weeks from the actual primary or caucus - then one can make a fairly safe bet on the front-runner). The aforementioned are historical and statistical facts. As we round the corner of December, with two debates scheduled for the GOP, (the next on the 12th of December (Saturday) on ABC at 8:00 Eastern, in Iowa and sponsored by the Des Moines Press Register) it will be those debates and the candidates performances that will reach the millions who will eventually decide who has the mettle to lead. It is part and parcel of the process - it is what makes these United States such an amazing country in which to reside as a citizen. This because, a “ruling political class” can be pushed, and reformed by the simple act of voting, and a leader can emerge by the will of the people, rather than by the will of a “class” pushing one candidate over another. (Of course, as a feminist, one is compelled to mention one more time, that one example where the people’s choice did not materialize, that of the 2008 Democrat Convention).

GOP 2012 – Two Choices: Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich – Romney Unpredictable in Debate - Gingrich: Stalwart, Calm in Face of Criticism

Likely 2012 Choices - Going Forward - Who do you Trust? - image from pensitoreview.com

When one looks at the very capable field of “contenders” for the 2012 GOP Presidential nomination, one understands that the time between the Iowa and New Hampshire caucuses has grown so short, that any recovery for those who are not Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich would be nothing short of miraculous. With today being December 1st, there are approximately four weeks left to sort the chaff from the wheat, and the early primary and caucus states will be the harbinger of things to come.

The Candidates, from this perspective, offer two very clear choices, one in Willard Mitt Romney, who has a track record as Governor of Massachusetts, but more of a track record in business, giving rise to his claim as a “Washington Outsider”. However, it is a fact that Romney attempted to be a Washington outside, but lost that bid in a no-contest run at the Senate against one Teddy Kennedy. It was in the debate arena where Romney suffered, and the more probable lack of ground support in state that rarely knows there is an opposition candidate to an incumbent until the last hour – the outcome is usually predicable, which leaves the Democrats in fairly firm control of the Bay State. Given the fact that Massachusetts historically elects Republican’s to the corner office, it is not a surprise that going back and running for Governor, Romney was able to win the critical election – the one that allowed him a stepping stone to the 2008 Presidential race. Therefore Romney’s career in “government” was approximately three years long. In that time, he pushed through a universal health care reform bill in the Bay State, instituted fees (s.i.c.) taxes for licenses of all sorts (it is now out of the reach of most families to take their children fishing), and he did balance the budget. To be fair to Romney, and those in the Republican Establishment that truly believe a candidate must be as close to a Democrat ideologically to get elected in Massachusetts or the country for that matter. One must be politically correct. Notice how painful Romney appears when he is “throwing red meat” to conservatives. It is obviously going against his grain. In addition – as far as appearances are concerned, he cannot always be counted on to maintain his composure. He becomes visibly angry – For the latest example see the article here on Romney in the Miami Herald, regarding his Fox News Interview with Bret Bair. Romney took exception to being asked certain questions.

Newt Gingrich, who is now the most targeted man in American, given his climb in polls both in the early primary states as well as the latest Rasmussen Poll, where he bests Obama, is dealing with the arrows and slings thrown by “friends and foes “alike in a most calm and straightforward manner. He does not duck questions, rather, he has answers. When asked about his personal life, he talks about the human condition – we are all capable of making mistakes. When there is a bit of a fabrication, he calls it out (specifically the rumor of his handing a dying wife divorce papers – one which is totally baseless and came from a left, hoping to remove then Speaker of the House – Newt Gingrich – apparently he was too conservative. – The facts: his dying wife is still alive and well, and it was she who was asking for the divorce, this from a daughter who was present at the time in question.) When asked about his stance on Global Warming being man-made, he gives the best answer on the subject: “we don’t’ know”. Which is the truth – there simply has not been any credible research to established global warming (see University email scandal to create results to support global warming), nor to dismiss it – when was the last time someone was working on the theory of “global cooling?”

On participating in a commercial with Nancy Pelosi on the same subject: “It was stupid” – Refreshing, asked and answered in a completely understandable way.

On his private business taking fees from clients, even if that client were a government subsidies entity (i.e. Freddie and Fannie), or an industry that is constantly targeted by the left, it was a private business, one which he ran successfully. Consultants abound, Gingrich just happens to be one of them – the Government routinely hires contractors, (outside firms) the majority of which save the taxpayers’ dollars. It simply boils down to this: it was his choice of business, he was more than capable and qualified, yet opposition teams that are slipping like stones in the polls, and or realize that they stand no chance whatsoever to reach the goal of GOP nominee in 2012, are grasping at any available straws in order to cast doubt on Gingrich.

Although sensational for the day or so the you tube ad, or the comments to some talking head are part of the 24-7 news cycle, Gingrich appear to be able to calmly and with not a little bit of humor, offer a explanation or mea culpa, with a genuineness – that’s wise. Most importantly, unlike most “holier than though” politicians’ he admits to making mistakes. Anyone with any sense understands that as human beings, one goes through stages, where one makes mistakes, grows older, repents of those errors, and learns from said mistakes or missteps.

Given the fact that the nation is now down to three in the 2012 political arena, those being: Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich – one must start coming to grips with the obvious choices of supporting one who is wise enough to admit mistakes, and rocks in the debate forum, over one who is less willing, or for that matter incapable of admitting mistakes, and takes umbrage at being asked questions on his past policy – and finally one who, as President, has led the nation according to his own ideology, which, is appears to be one of a progressive world view, and one which allows for constant campaigning, rather than governing.

The reality – there is no perfect candidate, however, one might prefer a candidate that not only knows they are not “perfect” (meaning for every single voter), and is also willing to admit to failings. As there is no way to predict outcomes, and as there is no way to know how those in the first caucus and primary states will cast their votes, it is quite possible, that Mitt Romney could go on to become the nominee, whereas, a good percentage (75% - given Romney’s consistent polling in the 20’s), will hold their nose and vote for Romney or just stay home.)

That would be this bloggers choice, never having missed or wasted a vote, it would be a vote that would be cast with a bit of angst – angst that there might not be the stellar debate performances that are necessary for today’s media consumers to make a clear choice between the incumbent and the GOP nominee. Should, during the course of the general campaign, a reporter be rebuffed for asking a question, the already hostile media would ensure that topic remained front and center for weeks. It is possible that Romney could win the Presidency – possibly.

However, with Gingrich the vote would be cast enthusiastically, despite his human failings, despite having “stupidly “made a commercial with Nancy Pelosi, despite his stance on global warming, because of his stance on immigration (which is sane), and his ability to be both smart, pompous, and funny in the course of answering a question in the debate arena.
Therefore, although this counts for little in the greater scheme of things, this blogger endorses the candidacy of one Newt Gingrich for President. A disclaimer will accompany future posts even though this is an opinion blog. The reasons for this endorsement are outlined above.

For Edification:

You Tube Video: from the Senate Campaign Debate with Kennedy: It is only a 5 minute section of the debate, and one is hard pressed to find anything other than “cuts” of the debate by political opposition teams.


Link to video from the Ron Paul Campaign on Romney Losing Temper with Reporters: You Tube.

In fact, if one looks at the Ron Paul You Tube channel, one can find opposition videos for all candidates – Romney takes the majority of hits, most likely given his role as “leader” for the past two elections.

GOP Smackdown 2012 – Romney Attacks Gingrich as “Lifelong Politician” – Déjà vu 2008

Photo via Reuters: One gets a clear sense about how Romney feels about Gingrich



Reuters: Former One-term Governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, 2008 GOP Presidential Candidate and 2012 GOP Presidential CandidateWilliard Mitt Romney, insists that his biggest obstacle to the White House, one Newt Gingrich, is a “lifelong politician" who lacks credibility on how the U.S. economy works.” (Reuters).

Watching Romney throughout the 2008 GOP primary process, one became accustomed to attacks on candidates that might pose a problem to “Mitt”, specifically one Governor Mike Huckabee, whose battles with Romney are the stuff of legends – Romney’s criticisms started as soon as it was clear that Huckabee might be gaining momentum: From the Boston Globe Dec. 16, 2007:”Romney Calls on Huckabee to Apologize to President (Bush) over foreign policy criticism” - and that was a mild.

There was not a conservative paying attention who was not aware that Mitt Romney was the choice of the Beltway, nor was it a secret that he was backed by the “Establishment GOP”. With all this support however - Romney was out of the race come February.

He has the same support in 2011.

From the Kansas City Star: one Anne Coulter, on Mitt Romney - and then candidate McCain

Coulter also called John McCain a “douchebag,” but that was bleeped out.

Flash forward to 2011

The Daily Caller: Coulter: If not Romney Who? If not Now? When?

To Coulter’s credit, she did end up supporting McCain, however to get there she went through her favorite Conservative to be President first (and not one stood a snowball’s chance in Hades.)

Therefore, an endorsement from Ann Coulter, at this point in time, with the polls pointing way from her favorite candidate, is predicative of the turn of events to take place in the next six to ten weeks.


Will someone please poll Massachusetts, pitting Romney against Gingrich for the 2012 primary?

Quote of the Month: Charles Hurt, Washington Times on Mitt Romney (with Analysis and Opinion)

“Getting Republicans to line up behind Mitt Romney, it turns out, is like trying to stuff a cat into a trash can. No matter how you present the feline to the receptacle, at least one claw always manages to reach out at the last second and cling desperately to the rim.”
This quote came from Mr. Hurt’s column ”Gingrich Is GOP’s Latest Not Romney”, an analysis and opinion piece that take’s the serious matter of a GOP General Election Primary, complete with the angst general “Republican’s” feel about an orderly election, and adds a good dollop of humor.

Charles Hurt presents the mood of the voters a’la Frankenstein’s monster and the rise of the Candidate Gingrich over the front-runner of the Beltway, Mitt Romney. In his arguments for Gingrich, he has a solid point in his closing paragraphs presented in a very pithy and to this mind very accurate manner.

However, it is from a Massachusetts point of view that, although the savior of the Olympic Games and Governor of a Commonwealth with the most liberal, criminal and hostile of governments – Romney, for all his business acumen appeared to use Massachusetts as a springboard to the 2008 general election primary, the Commonwealth’s “fees” rose consistently, and of course, there’s that “mandatory” health care bill, - which has all but bankrupted the state. It is not so much the fact that he changed positions on every imaginable issue, it is not his perfect hair, nor his religion, it is truly the record on which Romney is attempting to run that is problematic – more so because Romney defends and glorifies the same.

Additionally, from this point of view, Gingrich is not the “not-Romney”, he is the guy who from the start of the general was the least appealing, and who through his appearances on varied news programs and especially his debate performances, won the hearts and minds of voters, all of his own accord.

That is the purpose of the primary, to winnow away the proverbial wheat from the chaff – perhaps not as orderly and as perfect as those who live in a perfect word might like, but a system that allows the cream to rise to the top.

2012 GOP Update – Gingrich on a Roll – New Hampshire Union Leader Endorses

Newt Gingrich at the New Hampshire Union Leader - image NH Union Leader

Newt Gingrich, 2012 GOP Presidential Candidate, has received the endorsement of the editorial board of the New Hampshire Union Leader. The Union Leader, in its endorsement, does not sound one whit like pre-2010 newspaper endorsement – in fact, not unlike the changes in the New Hampshire political scene since that time, the editorial board should be applauded for its straight forward, what might be considered “Tea Party”, approach to the endorsement of the former Speaker.

The endorsement, from the publisher, Joseph W. McQuaid :

“This newspaper endorses Newt Gingrich in the New Hampshire Presidential Primary.

America is at a crucial crossroads. It is not going to be enough to merely replace Barack Obama next year. We are in critical need of the innovative, forward-looking strategy and positive leadership that Gingrich has shown he is capable of providing.

He did so with the Contract with America. He did it in bringing in the first Republican House in 40 years and by forging balanced budgets and even a surplus despite the political challenge of dealing with a Democratic President. A lot of candidates say they're going to improve Washington. Newt Gingrich has actually done that, and in this race he offers the best shot of doing it again.

We sympathize with the many people we have heard from, both here and across the country, who remain unsure of their choice this close to the primary. It is understandable. Our nation is in peril, yet much of the attention has been focused on fluff, silliness and each candidate's minor miscues.

Truth be known, many in the liberal media are belittling the Republican candidates because they don't want any of them to be taken as a serious challenger to their man, Obama.

Readers of the Union Leader and Sunday News know that we don't back candidates based on popularity polls or big-shot backers. We look for conservatives of courage and conviction who are independent-minded, grounded in their core beliefs about this nation and its people, and best equipped for the job.

We don't have to agree with them on every issue. We would rather back someone with whom we may sometimes disagree than one who tells us what he thinks we want to hear.

Newt Gingrich is by no means the perfect candidate. But Republican primary voters too often make the mistake of preferring an unattainable ideal to the best candidate who is actually running. In this incredibly important election, that candidate is Newt Gingrich. He has the experience, the leadership qualities and the vision to lead this country in these trying times. He is worthy of your support on January 10.”

The Hill article on the endorsement Here discusses the papers’ “track record” in endorsing candidates, and points to a poll taken by Suffolk University which gave GOP Candidate Mitt Romney the advantage in New Hampshire - consider the beltway. A poll taken a week prior to the Suffolk poll, by a New Hampshire Journal in conjunction with Magellan Strategies, showed Gingrich in a statistical and numerical dead heat with Romney (Analysis of both the Suffolk and the Journal poll here,). Mitt Romney is considered the establishment candidate, had a somewhat poor showing in the critical National Security Debate, and should he fumble again (verbally), in the upcoming CNN Debate on December 1st, it will be an uphill battle for the former Massachusetts Governor.

It is, for most 2012 voters, the questions now of who could best Obama in the debate arena, as well as appeal to several factions in order to secure an election: the Tea Party (check), Independents (check) and rank and file Republicans (check) – as of this moment, that candidate is Newt Gingrich. Should Gingrich win the Iowa Caucus, go on to win in New Hampshire, and pull out South Carolina, it will be difficult, if not impossible for another candidate to “catch-up” as Super Tuesday follows fast on the heels of the early primary states.

In 2008, Romney won three primary states, and eight caucus states (CNN), coming in 2nd and 3rd in the Southern and Mid-Western States that are critical to the general election. Should Gingrich take the three of the four first primary states, specifically New Hampshire (which is, this must be understood, a Tea Party, rather than establishment Republican state), then the 2008 GOP primary scenario may very see Romney bow out by March.