Monday, December 05, 2011

GOP 2012 Weekly Wrap-up: Newt Takes Front Runner Status, Cain Suspends Campaign, Romney in Battle with 25% Average, Huckabee’s Fox Presidential forum

Gingrich, Romney and Pual - the Front Runners - image: all voices dot com

2012 GOP Candidate, Newt Gingrichhas taken the lead in the following polls: (using Real Clear Politics Method of combining polls over a period of months) National by 6.3% (Last Poll Rasmussen: 38%), Iowa, Gingrich plus 10.2% (Last Poll, Des Moines Register 25%), South Carolina, Gingrich plus 8.6 (Last Poll Insider Advantage; 38%) and rounding out New Hampshire, Romney leads by 16.5 (Last Poll NBC/Marist Romney 39%). This close to the primaries (4 weeks away) little change is anticipated for other candidates to move up by double digits in any of these states, although a candidate such as Ron Paul, may pick up enough votes to take strong second in Iowa or New Hampshire, or now South Carolina, where he may benefit from Cain’s Suspension of his campaign. A 20 plus point lead over the closest competitor should indicate a solid hold on a state, by the 3rd week of December. If the present polling is an indicator of what is to come: Gingrich would take both Iowa and South Caroline, second in New Hampshire, which would, essentially roll into Florida (where he also leads) – by the end of Super Tuesday, it should be clear who the front-runner(s) are, either the Former Speaker of the House, New Gingrich, or the former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney. Although Romney will have a battle holding a first in the southern and Midwestern states necessary to win enough delegates going into the convention.

Herman Cain suspended his campaign this weekend (NRP) noting “"So as of today, with a lot of prayer and soul-searching, I am suspending my presidential campaign. I am suspending my presidential campaign because of the continued distractions and the continued hurt caused on me and my family,". Cain was, of course, referring to the plethora of allegations against him from sexual harassment to sexual assault to a thirteen year affair, all of which, on first look are dubious, however, had he staying in the campaign, it would not be inconceivable that more women (or men) would come forward claiming affairs, harassment or paternity – it was the electric lynching Cain Prediction. That said, Cain did not lose momentum entirely based upon these allegations (given that trust in media is at a dismal low), rather his debate performance in the pivotal national security debate two weeks ago, where he was clearly out of his depth. This leaves seven Candidates in the field for 2012 going into the early Iowa and New Hampshire voting.

Mitt Romney, who had run in 2008 against then underdog, John McCain and former Governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee (who won Iowa, one must remember on a shoestring), has stayed consistent in polling over the entire period. The largest gain he’s made to date is the Marist poll out of New Hampshire, and should that hold true, it would give Romney a win in the state he expected to take in 2008 – but lost to John McCain, with similar poll numbers coming this time (December 1st week)out for Romney( Poll here) they eventually turned into a 5 point lead for McCain days before the primary. One can almost anticipate a repeat of 2008 repeat, however, Romney remains the most McCain (Moderate) candidate in the bunch, therefore this may still be fluid if the number of voters/caucus goes are GOP Party purists, and not independent lean Republican.

Speaking of New Hampshire the New Hampshire’s Concord Monitor, gave Newt Gingrich credit for having a niche issue, that of mental health and research for Alzheimer’s, Parkinson and other disorders that affect millions o f households and, as individuals age (the baby boomers specifically), will require more attention – Worth the read (See Link Concord Monitor)

Finally, this weekend, Fox News Host, Former Governor of Arkansas and Former 2008 Gop Presidential Candidate Mike Huckabee, held a forum for the Presidential candidates; those participating included Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry and Ron Paul. The premise, each candidate has a turn being “grilled” by state Attorney Generals, (as seen on Fox), The AG’s included: Ken Cuccinelli of Virginia, Pam Bondi of Florida and Scott Pruitt of Oklahoma, all of whom are hard-line 10th Amendment AG’s, - Newt Gingrich went up first with questions based on past issues, including his now mulit-answered and answered, ad with Nancy Pelosi on the couch regarding Climate Change. Each candidate was given a turn before this hard right group – and surprising the one that the AG’s all agreed was the strictest constructionist was – Mitt Romney?

The full video appears below

The next debate will be held on December 12th, at 9pm eastern on ABC and sponsored by the Des Moines Register

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