CNN GOP AZ Debate 2 23 12 – Winner Gingrich, Romney Lies Through Teeth but Strong on Delivery, Santorum Strong on Defense, Paul – just Ron Paul

The Candidates; Paul, Santorum, Romney, Gingrich seated for CNN debate - image Gaurdian UK


A Matter of Trust

The 2012 GOP Candidates gathered in Arizona for the last debate prior to the Primaries to be held in Arizona, Michigan on the 28th and the Super Tuesday State Primaries on March 6th. The four remaining GOP candidates went from the usual introduction, to an attack by Ron Paul and Mitt Romney on the one Candidate running strongest in the polls, Senator Rick Santorum. Newt Gingrich, stayed out of the battle of what amounted to “he said, she said” – between Ron Paul (the pot who calls the kettle black when it comes to earmarks, then babbles his way to - “protect the constitution, or some such snippet of a slogan” to get his point across – which apparently is: I’m going to attack whoever is the front runner, regardless of whether or not, I’ve done the same thing, and then end it with something my supporters understand.

Former Governor Mitt Romney did the same, however, his delivery was stellar, and he managed to continue to pound home on Santorum to the point where he sounded believable – to anyone who hasn’t exactly “fact checked” Mitt Romney. The opening remarks he made regarding the Catholic Church, which is a hot button issue, was a major stretch – considering it was his usual excuse to those who reside in Massachusetts and looked towards a positive outcome: (Paraphrasing) “There is nothing I can do – the deck is stacked against me, too many Democrats!” – The most egregious assertion was his "work" with the Catholic Church and their ability to operate as an adopt service in Massachusetts – from Cactholic Culture.org:

Boston Catholic Charities has decided to pull out of adoption services, rather than comply with Massachusetts law that requires adoption agencies not to discriminate against homosexual couples.
The surprise move by Boston Church officials, announced on March 10, avoids a political showdown in Massachusetts. The state's bishops had said last week that they would seek an exemption from the law that mandates equal treatment for same-sex couples.
The Boston office of Catholic Charities has been caught up in a controversy since last November, when it came to light that the agency had placed several children in homosexual households. Church teachings say that adoption by same-sex couples is a form of violence against children.
In December, Boston's Archbishop Sean O'Malley reportedly received a direct instruction from the Vatican saying that a Catholic agency cannot be involved in adoptions by gay couples. (The San Francisco archdiocese has recently acknowledged a similar message from Rome, responding to same-sex adoptions arranged by the office of Catholic Charities there.)
On February 28, the four diocesan bishops of Massachusetts joined in a public statements indicating that they would seek an exemption from the government's non-discrimination policy. Today's announcement indicates that the bishops have abandoned their effort.
"We have encountered a dilemma we cannot resolve," said Father J. Bryan Hehir and Jeffrey Kaneb, the president and chairman, respectively, of Boston Catholic Charities. Their joint statement concluded that they could not find a way to "reconcile the teaching of the Church which guides our work and the statutes and regulations of the commonwealth."
Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney had said that he did not have the authority to grant an exemption for Catholic Charities from the state's anti-discrimination laws, but he indicated that he would be sympathetic to legislation advancing that goal. However, leaders of the state legislature warned that a Church bid for an exemption would be unsuccessful, leaving the bishops no other option but a court battle.

The same story can be found on the Boston Globe’s website, for those who might think that Catholics are a bit too worried about good and evil getting in the way of a few facts.

Romney Lobbied hard for the Salt Lake City Olympics, and yet, continues to pound on Rick Santorum on doing the same (as does Ron Paul). He also taxed and fee’ed his way to a mandated balanced budget, in Massachusetts, everything that Santorum attacked or counterattacked to the left and right of him was the truth – it was the delivery. He appeared tired., and he became technical – at one point, which is surprising, Santorum was describing the workings of the Congress, something which Mitt Romney declared, he could not understand – it was a minor point, to be certain, however, Romney if elected, should understand how the legislature works – it was understandable the delivery dry, and a high school student (hopefully form one of the “best schools in Massachusetts” (There are a handful of the state’s schools that do have graduation rates over 60%), could understand. Mitt Romney apparently needs a civics lesson. His new debating coach however, is doing a fine job.

In the final questions, Romney refused to answer a question on what the one misconception the public might have about him – instead going into a “Why you should elect me President” stump speech – coming off as a bit arrogant. In total he was the second to least “frazzled” appearing candidate on the stage, the most composed goes to:

Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House, answered very few questions, with short, pointed statements that were well structured and well spoken – he was consistent throughout the debate – and, appeared to be a different man, the Newt Gingrich of the pre-South Carolina Debates, who did not show up for the Florida debate – he was back last night. Best line of the night: In referring to Mitt Romney’s assertions against Santorum and Romney’s work with the Catholic Church – Newt Gingrich held that “incredible” look on his face, until he leaned to Romney and said “Nice Try” – then went onto support both his and Santorum’s assertions against Romney by noting – the truth. It was easily brushed aside by one Mitt Romney.

Rick Santorum, of course, being charged as one of “those Catholics” that actually practice their religion, had a few good points in the debate, but appeared flustered at points, most likely due to the Ron Paul on his right and Romney on his left, and their continual assault on his record, while apparently, ignoring their own, or outright lying. He was the most passionate in his delivery in defense of Iran, and his grasp of the situation in the area (going a back at least a decade) is of import. Although one can give credit for Mitt Romney’s ability to get the foreign policy talking points down, and Newt Gingrich, (goes without saying), knows whereof he speaks on foreign policy) – it boils down after watching what amount to a three ring circus (Paul, Romney and Santorum) – of one question.
Who do you trust not to act rashly, but to come to be sensible on the points relating to Iran, and oil production and delivery and the options on the table leading to stabilizing the Iranian Theocracy? Who do you trust to be as honest as a boy scout, best Obama in the polls (in September) and to deliver a plan on economics that has not wavered and would best serve both those in Manufacturing jobs, of which there are very few (especially in Massachusetts)?

It is the fact that Santorum, who is now saddled with the “crazy Catholic” moniker over a speech given at a Catholic College (private church institution) in 2006, where he used the word “Satan” - something those on the left feel would not resonate with Catholics, and the views he personally holds that are within the confines of Catholic doctrine, which one would expect a Catholic to hold. However, he is the Boy Scout, next to another Catholic, Newt Gingrich. Santorum may have lost the debate on form, but on substance, he held on. He appeared somewhat tired, not unlike Romney’s worst debate performances (the man who owns that title over the plethora of debates held to date), and Gingrich’s performance on two occasions, one which was critical – that of Florida.

It will be perception and the battle lines of delivery on the ground in each of the states, and the reality that if there were to be a comeback for Gingrich, it has to happen not on Super Tuesday, but in Arizona and Michigan. Therefore, it is up to the Santorum Team, to ensure that their candidate is well-rested, at every stump speech made between now and the Super Tuesday and to come out swinging, staying on point, as everything he said for the last five decades (he would have been two) will be brought to bear on the media.

However, it is that nagging question of which one of those candidates, appears most trustworthy to lead the nation, to protect the nation, to deliver on their promises, and who has a record of delivery on promises made in the past – whether or not one might agree with supporting state programs (through earmarks), or if one is in the anti-Catholic Camp, the Right media followed by the left media, and those American’s who were concerned about JFK’s Catholicism. As it happened in 2008, when the extremely qualified, 2-1/2 term Govenor of the State of Arkansas ran against Mitt Romney and John McCain (two moderates who were sure to lose, either the primary or the general election as is historically the case when moderate Republicans run for the office of the Presidency), each article, each newscast, would begin with “The Baptist Minister, and somewhere near the end of the article or newscast, or perhaps not at all, the point as made as an afterthought, the successful two and one half term Governor of Arkansas, a state one might point out that has a fairly strong Democrat to Republican ratio.

It was that Huckabee was rising against Mitt Romney, as is Santorum now, so if one cannot beat someone on their record, or resonate with the people, the press (from the left and the right), goes after that individuals faith, making it appear that it would be central to their governing the nation, with evidence in droves to the contrary, in the form of state governors records, and/or legislation signed by a Governor, and or votes taken, legislation written by a Senator.

Romney looked good – this time, has grown stronger in the debate arena, but only time will tell if those in Arizona and Michigan will trust Romney enough to throw their full support behind the “businessman” and one-term Governor of the State of Massachusetts In the upcoming primaries.

There is no answer to that question, however, one can assess how the standard media is handling the last debate – in Massachusetts the report by CBS locals used snippets of the debate video that caught each of the candidates in the worst one-frame, part-answer to a question that made them all look – pretty bad – that newscast went on to speak about Obama’s Campaign the fact that the Massachusetts Governor, Deval Patrick, would be co-chairing the Obama Campaign. As sure sign, if any, that Massachusetts is being considered a state that needs a figurehead – how odd one might think – almost as odd as the constant adds run by Romney’s back currently hitting the airwaves In MA – ads are attacking: Rick Santorum.

In the interest and practice of full disclosure, this bloggers supports Rick Santorum as the 2012 GOP Nominee. The reasoning is not based on Social Issues, although his remarks following the Obama Administration assault on the Catholic Church resonated (given that this non-practicing Catholic is still a Catholic), further, the assertion by the media, Drudge Report to New York Times that Santorum is some sort of “religious nut” when he is merely practicing and speaking about Church Doctrine, strikes a cord of support rather than the intended result. It is his stance on economics, specifically his plans for manufacturing that are vital to this nation, his grasp, and strong grasp of foreign policy issues, which are always the key to this bloggers choices: foreign policy and economies. The social issues are secondary, if considered at all. In making this choice of a Santorum candidacy, it was not done lightly, as readers understand that this bog has favored several different candidates over the course of the campaign. However, in the debate arena, in the stump speeches, and in the laity to tell the truth even if it hurts, (goes to trust) of all the candidates, Santorum is the only one that satisfies both criteria. Is he able to beat Obama, polls have indicated that yes, indeed he is – so although technical points were awarded to both Gingrich and Romney due to their delivery, it was the passion and knowledge portrayed by Santorum, once again, that keeps this Massachusetts Moderate a supporter. Massachusetts Moderate – then why not Romney? It is the issue with truth, and when one can stand on the stage and in front of a nation deliver barbs against opponents, with a PAC that runs advertising that is patently false, then that individual’s quest to win at any cost, including abandoning truth and running on record, turns this voter flat. In the 2008 elections, when faced with a choice between McCain or the not yet decided Democrat Candidates, Barack Obama (and yes, Newt had that born alive issue down pat – it was for this reasons (Obama’s support for the doctors, not the living child who managed to escape the physicians ice pick) that Obama received the highest rank of any candidate by NARAL (A pro-abortion group) or Hillary Clinton, this blogger (feel free to check the archives), supported Clinton. Not due to the fact that she was a “woman” (goes to the feminist moniker), although that was a plus, but more on her voting record in the U.S. Senate on issues of defense (she has more, to be blunt, cajones than either McCain or Obama on record, this Massachusetts Moderate would have preferred a Clinton Presidency to a McCain or Obama Presidency – but was left with no choice but to vote against Obama, not for McCain. Sue me, I also voted for Carter, people change their minds, in a matter of a period of years sometimes, just not on a daily basis (if one needs to think about whom I’m referring, then one needs to read more about Massachusetts favorite sons John Kerry and Mitt Romney (ok Kerry has higher favorable).

Therefore, this blogger goes on records, and the ability to face the American public straight on without reservation, and with truthful assertions and explanations that Mitt Romney may not understand about how Congress works.

It is however, a fact in this mind, given the records of three of the individuals vis a vis Obama, (and a dose of reality, no matter how many delegates Ron Paul has, in truth, the polls and the results thus far, are not encouraging as far as any known path to the nomination) is that they are all, to a man, even one who can stand there and stretch he truth like a slinky, are all a better choice to run the nation. Therefore, the preference is: Santorum, Gingrich, Romney (goes to trust, but in the end, Romney may be more trustworthy than Obama, so one would have to vote for him regardless.)

As to a brokered convention: poppycock: The candidates for all their flaws and foibles, are still our candidates, and let the chips fall where they may – again, with exceptions, they are all preferable.

The video in 9 parts courtesy of 2012 Debates You Tube Channel
Part I

Part II

Part III

Part IV

Part V

Part VI

Part VII

Part VIII

Part IX

Breaking GOP 2012 Update -State of Maine Recount! Counties Missing from Official Tally – Romney May Loose Maine – Paul a First State Win- Analysis

Who Won Maine - That's the Question! 184 Vote Romney Margin May Disappear in Recount - image Washington Times

Fromthe Portland Press Herald – the Main GOP is recounting the caucus votes due to pressure from Maine State Republican Committee Members

1. Romney won by 194 votes out of 5585 total, those votes did not include Washington County

2. Clerical and Commuter errors, in much of Waldo County were left votes off the table, and other community vote totals were erroneously entered (Press Herald)

In light of the Press Heralds information – a slim margin of 194 votes, with large (for Maine) blocs of votes either missing or entered incorrectly, could change the schematic of the race towards Paul, and/or give Romney a larger edge – but, with the focus on the Establishment GOP and its role in the Romney campaign, one would be under the impression that Paul, not Romney would have something to gain if the votes are recounted, and corrected.

The large state, (historically the former upper end of Massachusetts, made a singular state in the Missouri Compromise), is one of the larger states in the Union with areas such as Washington County, where the vote was delayed due to snow, slowing the process, especially as the primary is in the format of a caucus. The fact that a winner was declare with 20% (approximately) of the vote totaled, with known errors, is at best incompetent.
The Maine Caucus is similar to that of the Missouri Caucus both being non-binding where no delegates are awarded until later in the process (In Maine’s’ case May, Missouri releases their delegates in March).

If Maine goes to Paul, the current state win count would be:
Gingrich: SC
Paul: Maine
Romney: NH, NV, FL
Santorum, IA, CO, MO, MN

The next primary contests are on the 28th of February in Michigan and Arizona, a debate is scheduled for the 22nd on CNN at 8 PM EST, both the March 1st Debate and the March 5th Debates have been cancelled, those debates prior to Super Tuesday – therefore the performance of the February 22nd Debate per candidate will not only be of import in Michigan and AZ, but will play to the voters in the Super Tuesday States: Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia – of those states, Alaska is one that may move towards Romney, Massachusetts, the Santorum Campaign has Grassroots in place on the ground, no other campaigns are active. In Virginia, there are two names on the ballot, Paul and Romney – where in 2008 Paul bested Romney in the state primary. It is difficult to tell at this stage, but one might not want to count out a Paul in Virginia, where it comes down to a choice between two candidates (See Missouri).

In the case of Santorum - given his popularity with manufacturing states, (or former manufacturing states) and the middle and western states, may see Idaho, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma and Tennessee go his way. Massachusetts and Vermont could prove to be upsets with Massachusetts going to Santorum, or Paule (Santorum again, has boots on the ground), and Vermont leans Libertarian, therefore, that is as difficult call. Those two states (although not on anyone's radar) will depend on candidates grassroots strength and or the presence of a candidate on the ground. The later is unlikely given the nature of both states (Liberal leaning). That said, with no-one watching: Mitt Romney, although popular with the establishment GOP in Massachusetts, he has an uphill battle with the State’s unenrolled and rank and file Republicans.

Speculation: If Romney should lose Michigan, it would be a, as pundits note, a blow, simply because he spent his early childhood there, however, if Romney were to loose Massachusetts, it would send a strong message of rejection across the board, as the state is used as a testing ground for moderate/liberals nationwide. With Super Tuesday and the schematics of all states combined, watch for a downplay of importance from the Romney campaign on the role Super Tuesday plays in the nominating process (similar to the reaction to CO, MO, and MN.)

Mitt Romney Election Dysfunction – Narrowly “Wins” Maine, follows 3 point “Victory” at CPAC Straw Poll – Is he Electable? (SNL Video)

The State of Maine Caucus, with 84% of the vote reported, called the race a win for Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts Governor. The tally: Mitt Romney: 39.2, Ron Paul, 35.7, not campaigning in the State of Maine, Rick Santorum at 17.7% - both Gingrich and “others” were in single digits. Of note, in 2008 Romney took the State of Maine with 51.9% to John McCain’s, 21% (New York Times).

CPAC, held its annual convention, and straw poll the same day – which Romney won, again, by a squeaker, in the national poll, 27 to 25% for Rick Santorum – in the Convention poll (those attending, which includes establishment GOP), Romney won by a larger margin, of 38 to 31 (Santorum) respectively. (Huffington Post) Romney’s win inside CPAC is being compared by some media, to that of George W. Bush, who had previously won CPAC at 42% in 2000 (The Blaze)

What’s next? – Arizona and Michigan, which has little to no polling since Rick Santorum swept the states of Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota last week: See Real Clear Politics The last polls showed Romney leading, with Gingrich in close second in both states. It is unclear at this point, this far out from the primaries, if these numbers will hold up – but the momentum is clearly on Rick Santorum’s side, considering he has won swing states, where Romney has not.

The video below from Saturday Night Live, goes over the Romney losses to Santorum, and pretty much sums up the entire Romney character.



Romney’s election history

2008 – Presidential run – looses to John McCain, drops out after Super Tuesday

2002 – Narrowly wins the Governorship of the State of Massachusetts against a pro-gun, Democrat, Shannon O’Brien – O’Brien had been polling ahead of Romney throughout the contest, (Free Republic), until they debated the issue of abortion, trying to outdo one another as to who was more “pro-choice”, O’Brien called for 16 year olds to be allowed to seek an abortion without parental consent, and her numbers plummeted ((see What’s Wrong with Mitt Romney, CapitalNewYork.com for video. Romney won with less than 50% of the vote, less than any other Massachusetts Republican candidate for Governor (legal insurrection)

and lost to Ted Kennedy in 1994 by 17 points .

Overall, one has to question the fact that this early in the game, with Romney’s election statistics, why he is being touted as a frontrunner.

Romney Wins FL Closed GOP Primary: State Scorecard: Romney 2, Gingrich 1, Santorum 1 – Nevada On Deck - Analysis

Romney wins Fl by 14% over Gingrich in Closed Republican Only FL Primary


Mitt Romney the former Massachusetts Governor, Bain Capital Founder and Salt Lake City Olympic Savior has won the Florida GOP Primary – with 100% of the vote counted, Romney captured 46% of the Republican closed primary; Gingrich 32%, Santorum at 13% and Paul at 7% (Freedomslighthouse). The FL State GOP, in moving the date up in the calendar year, was penalized and lost delegates – 50 delegates instead of 99 were awarded to Romney prior. In Florida’s case all delegates were awarded to the winning candidate (Romney) and it is not a proportional state – over half the states award proportional delegates (everyone picks up delegates, according to placement).

The total delegate count to date is illustrated very well on CNN Politics: where Romney currently leads with 84 delegates, 66 won in primary contests, and the balance awarded by the GOP as “unpledged delegates”. Gingrich at 27, Ron Paul at 10, and Rick Santorum at 8 with one unpledged delegate – the total delegate count to win the election: 1144.

Give the Devil his Due:

Romney did extremely well in this Republican Only Primary, winning by 14% over Gingrich who, despite the barrage of negative advertising continued by Romney and his PAC, came in a respectable 2nd with a vote tally over 500,000. It appears that Romney’s forte is the negative ad, which played well in this particular state. Santorum and Paul, unlike Gingrich, did not compete in the State of Florida.

The Speech: Romney’s wife Ann gave a very remarkable and entertaining pre-Mitt introduction speech, the candidate himself, gave a short pointed speech skewering the President – and what Romney has learned in the last month since he was hammered by Gingrich in SC is to become a better communicator. Watching Romney deliver a speech prior to this elicited a deep desire to take a nap – in all seriousness, the man does not exude excitement or the ability to connect with the given audience – he now has this down (or appears to given his speech upon winning Florida: keep the speech short and to the point, as if watching a PowerPoint rather than a teleprompter: Romney ticked off the speech speaking first to the hard won battle between all candidates, and then why he, and not Obama should be the next President, he also looked sincerely into the camera, looking more Mitt than ever before - he out-Obamaed the president in his ability to work the camera to his advantage. For that performance – Mitt deserves credit – his fortunes may well lay with his ability to be coached through both the debates and the speeches – if he can continue in this vein, he may do as well in the Republican only contests.

Doesn’t the Republican only contest represent all facets of population?

Hardly: In a closed primary only Republican’s can vote, therefore, as the Tea Party is mainly made up of the anti-establishment (i.e. non-Republican and non-Democrats) they were not truly represented in Florida, in addition, Independents tend to also include those who would normally vote for either a Republican and or Democrat, making it difficult to tell if Romney could carry any Democrats, as in Blue Collar workers.

Therefore although Florida is another notch in the delegate belt, what Romney needs to do to convince everyone on the planet that he is indeed capable (we all know he’s the GOP chosen candidate and that the last man anyone in Washington wants in the White House is Newt Gingrich, who will boot them to the curb, no doubt) – he needs to win a state that a) is an open primary, with proportional votes, and by a wider margin that 14 points. Romney simply is not picking up the base, therefore, he has to be picking up the independent and Democrats that will swing, if he cannot, he will be yet another Republican Nominee who almost beat the incumbent. On that Speech by the way, Ann Romney delivered a rousing speech beforehand, thanking those who helped the campaign, and obviously the main cheerleader for her husband, Mitt.

On Newt Gingrich:

In delivering his Concession Speech, CNN political Analysis David Gergen” said it best (Paraphrased) “That was the speech Newt should have delivered in the Debates and he may have won Florida.” Gingrich’s speech was rousing, acknowledging briefly the fact that Florida was a loss and making a point that there were 46 additional states to weigh in – in addition Gingrich had honed his message as not only the Anti-Romney candidate (although Rick Santorum has some creds on that as well), but as the Anti-Establishment Candidate – an independent voice, for the people that would not give a whit about political party –in other words, a man that would run the nation based on the ideal our Founders put Forth in framing the Constitution. Political parties were their worst nightmare – Gingrich personifies the individual who would challenge the status qua, and shake things up in DC.

That is where the Tea Party and those who feel entrenched politico’s including those non-elected Party officials that plan who wins and who loses, need to meet Newt Gingrich. The strong oratorical skills shown in SC and in the speech last evening are what makes one want to see Gingrich take on the President – he shoots from the hip – and he manages to outperform expectations – whereby compared to Romney, who has two decent debate performances to date, and both in Florida, may have appeared strong, simply because he attacked Gingrich and Gingrich failed to show up – regardless of the fact that he may have been advised to tone down the rhetoric, or if he were road weary – there is no doubt that he lost Florida on the debate, and also on the fact that it was a closed Primary.

Where does that leave the GOP? This is a primary season unlike any other – watching CNN (by far superior to FOX for those who are not blinded by the GOP or any party), Political Analyst Donna Brazile said it best when she noted the Contests should go on, and mentioned popcorn. In addition, she also noted that Romney should not put his singing talents up against the President – although lighthearted, (and paraphrased), Ms. Brazile was spot on – this is a contest unlike any other in political history – where the public demands more action, debates are billed as “The Fight of the Century”, and where the average voter is thrilled to tune in. The fact that millions, depending on the network, anywhere from 5 to 7 million (approx.) viewers will tune into a Republican Debate, regardless of the fact that there have been dozens of debates so far – GOP Debates – who knew Republican candidates could be so entertaining?

Why didn’t Sarah Palin’s endorsement put Gingrich over the top?

Palin’s endorsement of Newt Gingrich (or, if I were in Florida I’d vote for Newt) most likely reached the right people (Tea Party, etc.), but they were not allowed to vote in the Florida primary – had this not been a closed primary – as the polls were based on “likely Republican voters”, including independents and Democrats”, the righteous indignation of one Sarah Palin fell on deaf ears.

Looking at CNN’s exist polls: Florida is less evangelical and/or religious, Florida Republicans are more moderate (think Massachusetts), and therefore, they do not depict those who, in November will actually cast ballots for the Republican Nominee – or, if the Republican ninnies is not to their liking, will a) stay home and not vote at all, or b) vote for the incumbent. It is the fact that Romney cannot connect with the base, something he desperately needs to do, and that leaves this race wide open.

Nevada, the next state on the agenda, will hold its Caucus on this Saturday and again, Romney is favored by the media and establishment to win – however, one must watch the Caucus State, where the Tea Party is stronger than the Republican Party and where Ron Paul and Santorum have been in place since last week. Gingrich flew directly there from Florida and will concentrate on that campaign rather than do the morning talk shows – what one does know is that none of these campaigns would be continuing if they felt that there was not an opening in which they could capitalize and possibly reach the nomination – therefore, given intelligence and internal polls in states that have Santorum and Paul appear set to go the distance, to Tampa if necessary.

Although anyone who has read this blog over a period of time understands that this blogger is no fan of the former Govenor of the Bay State (this blogger being a resident), for myriad reasons ranging from Fees (Note to Mitt, these are taxes no matter how one slices it), to Social Issues (specifically as regards the Catholic Church and its inability to promote adoptions in Massachusetts), and the facts about Robama Care and how it is not the best plan and never was. There is some resentment in Massachusetts, one might add, due to the many promises Romney made to GOP members and did not deliver (note to the FL AG), but more importantly, the rank and file conservatives (which include the 12% of the Republicans and the 51% of the Independents in part) who feel he abandoned the state to seek higher office, used the Governor’s office to do so, and then left the state with Deval Patrick a model for Barack Obama (literally), and a State Legislature chock full of like-minded progressive Democrats. In other words, hanging those who still held out a shred of hope that Massachusetts would, somehow not become the most taxes, highest cost of living, mandated Democrat controlled state in the Union. Perhaps it’s not fair to Romney; however, that’s how it appears. As Massachusetts is an Open Primary – it will be interesting to see how well Romney does in the State where he governed, against Gingrich and Paul who already have organizations on the ground, with Gingrich (PAC) running ads well ahead of the March 6 primary.

If Romney does end up the nominee by virtue of no help from his friends in high places, then so be it, it is, at this point, debatable (no pun intended) if he can best the incumbent, who has only prepared for a Romney victory. It would be a battle of billions in dollars spent – and to this point of view, the outcome is less certain, even though those same establishment voices continue to push the theory that Romney is the best candidate to beat Obama. One has to understand, (or reiterate) a closed Republican Parity in Florida where the voters think Mitt Romney is a stronger candidate is the Establishment of the GOP, whereas, the Open Primary in SC would be those most likely to vote be they independent, Republican or Democrat – and in that primary, Gingrich took the “most likely to best Obama vote. Again, only two states, out of 50, and only 4 having weighed in so far – it will be a long road, and as Romney said, the one who emerges from the ashes of the GOP 2012 primary season, will be battled hardened, and ready for Prime Time.

Game On? Insider Advantage – Last Poll Iowa 2012 – Romney-Paul-Santorum Tied – Gingrich Stable - Support Shows Uptick – Anyone’s Game

Romney, Paul, Gingrich, Santorum - any combination of wins possible - image from reddogreport.com

The headline fromthe Southern Political Report via Inside Advantage: “Iowa: Romney and Paul Neck and Neck; Santorum Surges; Gingrich Stable: Others…Gone” shows exactly how up in the air the Iowa Caucus is at this late date – in a statistical tie. This particular polling firm has called Iowa correctly in 2004 and 2008, the poll of 729 registered Republican voters taken after the Des Moines Iowa Register Poll has a margin of error of 3.5% gives the following results with a margin of error of plus/minus 3.5%: Romney 23, Paul 22, Santorum 18, Gingrich 16, Perry 10, Bachman 6, Huntsman 2, Other 1, and No Opinion 2. If this is the case, the ground game is going to come into play heavily today – giving those candidates with the most organization the edge – Santorum’s rise is, according to the firm, at the expense of Michelle Bachmann, which may be the result of Santorum’s endorsements from evangelical leaders.

What is most telling is that New Gingrich not only remains steady at the 4th position, but has gained points in this poll, given the amount of negative and misleading advertising placed on behalf of PAC’s in Iowa – the majority coming from Mitt Romney, followed by Ron Paul’s organizations. Gingrich, who had been last, in the middle, first, and then 4th has the opportunity in this particular year to capitalize on the Southern and Midwestern States, where Romney again, remains steady in the 20’s, and Paul’s rankings are dismal – Santorum will remain the wild card, along with Perry going into the South.

In Virginia, where Romney and Paul will remain the only candidates on the ballot, Paul trounced Romney in 2008 – Virginia, a Super Tuesday State, saw its AG at first attempt to change the Commonwealth’s primary rules, allowing all candidates ballot access, however, changed his mind a day later. As the states are proportioning delegates up through Super Tuesday, this will give Ron Paul an edge going forward. Should Paul upset Romney in Virginia, and the balance of the delegate heavy states put Gingrich and Santorum in the lead (as they head into the South) Romney may be out of the race by March – there is little that suggests he can, at this point, go the distance in the primary, with polling continuing to give him numbers steady in the 20’s.

The 2008 polling data from the same firm, gave Huckabee the lead, followed by Romney, Thompson and McCain with Paul coming in 5th above Giuliani with a larger margin of error at 5% (approximate), McCain who finished 4th in Iowa went on to win the nomination. The IA poll numbers 2007: Huckabee 30, Romney 24, Thompson and McCain both at 11%, and the final Iowa rankings were: Huckabee: 34.4, Romney: 25.2, McCain: 13.0, Thompson: 13.4, Paul, 9.9, and Giuliani: 3.4.

A big factor to consider in this race as in 2008, Romney remains at 23 to 25% in all polling, suggesting a repeat performance of 2008 – given the fact that Romney in 2008 not only outspent Huckabee by a wide margin but also was behind a barrage of negative advertising aimed at the former Governor of Arkansas, he could not rise above what is the Romney Benchmark.

Trying to call Iowa in 2012 is, as of this point, impossible – given the fact that there is no one candidate that has a lead outside the statistical margin of error in the top 4. For example, the final numbers could end up with Paul, Santorum, Perry, Gingrich, Romney, or Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, Perry, Romney - (Mindful of the fact that 41% of the Iowa Caucus participants are capable of changing their minds in Caucus – See article on the Des Moines Iowa Register final poll- here) The above reflects a tight race, giving credit to ground games and adding media attention now being shown to Santorum – and the possibility of Romney being pushed back, as Gingrich and Santorum combined have been seen as the “anti-Romney” to Conservatives. Should Romney remain at 22-24% he will place in the top four, however, should the Gingrich, Santorum or Perry supporters on the ground in Iowa, convince a portion of those 41% to change votes from Romney or Paul, the 24% could fall 10 points. It is a statistical nightmare. It is anyone’s guess – and tonight, the world will know the results, and the focus will be on New Hampshire.

This blog believes that Gingrich, given all the polling data will remain steady, and going forward into New Hampshire, will compare and contrast his record with that of Mitt Romney’s, specifically Romney’s time as Governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, his only hands-on experience in Governing and working with Legislators. From a Bay State Perspective, Gingrich would have the edge would he use simple examples of Romney’s tax policies, while Governor, alone. Romney may blame the Democrat Legislature but it is the Governors’ office in the Commonwealth that has the final say – and a line-item veto. Should Gingers compare and contrast without going dark and negative in the Romney style, he may do much better than expected in New Hampshire, and one must not, in any way shape of form, discount Ron Paul in the Life Free or Die State.

Ron Paul Chasing Romney in NH – The Big What If Game Changer for Romney and the GOP Establishment - Gingrich and Paul as the Last Men Standing

Paul and Gingrich in the debate format - image abcnewsradioonline.com

From the Boston Globe’s: “Paul sparks passion in Granite State”comes an article that speaks to the depth of “passion” supporters of the Texas Congressman who would be President, elicits from supporters. These supporters have, in the past, been younger – college students and those in their mid-to late 20’s – times are a-changing. Paul is now garnering support not only from his traditional base of the youth vote, but from those who might otherwise be considered more conservative and not shocking at all, more liberal. Paul, who is a Libertarian and runs as a Republican, has a philosophy of limited government, individual freedom, and, perhaps most appealing to a great range of age demographics, a non-interventionist policy towards use of the military.

In random “kitchen table” conversations over the holidays, one found that those that are traditional Democrats are looking at Ron Paul as an alternative to the standard GOP as well as the incumbent, President Barack Obama. Generally, those in Massachusetts that are considered “solid Democrat” are also anti-war, on a scale that is perhaps larger than the balance of the nation. To find those individuals seriously considering, or committed to the Ron Paul campaign is at first startling, as it crosses party lines that are rarely crossed (see Massachusetts General Election voting history, where in only two cases in recent memory did the Bay State vote Republican: twice for Ronald Reagan.)

Paul appeals to those who are “sick of government” or “tired of all these wars” and alternately, those who want “government out of our schools, and our lives” – from hard-line Constitutionalists (i.e. Tea Party) to those who are still banging bongo drums in protest of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to the youth who see no recourse and no hope for the future as long as the government remains in the status quo.

It may explain why Paul is doing so well in Iowa; he has the ability to attract the grassroots support necessary to push a win in a Caucus state, one that allows independents to participate in the nominating process. Iowa is not the only state to prescribe to the “open primary or caucus” – in fact Paul’s supporters are well aware of the 17 states that allow open primaries, and of those states, most take place on or before Super Tuesday. That said, the GOP has released the 2012 delegate playbook (PDF download here form the Weekly Standard,) which suggest that some states adopt a “Winner Take ALL “ delegate allocation, however, it is anticipated that certain states will continue to offer “proportional delegate allocation”. In this process, states that are designated as winner take all release all delegates to the candidate that amasses 50% or more of the total primary/caucus vote. In states where the rules are proportional allocation, delegates are allocated based on the percentage of the vote candidates receive (see “participation trophy”). Those states are few and far between after Super Tuesday.

In general, the candidate that amasses the most delegates by mid-March is seen as the eventual nominee, not only in terms of the ability to raise money based on their standing, but also in the makeup of the balance of the primary states.

The Polls: From Real Clear Politics one finds a variety of GOP polls , from national to the primary states, using a method of a “combined” score used for all candidates (averages all polls taken to rank a candidate). At this stage, Ron Paul ranks third nationally, behind Romney and Gingrich; all three have double digit leads, with Gingrich and Romney showing double Paul’s percentage. However, at this early stage in polling, these numbers are extremely fluid, and are subject to change on a weekly basis. In Iowa, Paul leads within the margin of error, with Romney and Gingrich following, In New Hampshire Romney leads, with Paul and Gingrich following. In South Carolina, Gingrich has a commanding lead of 37%, but again, Romney and Paul follow and the same scenario exists in Florida. These are the first four states that hold either a caucus or primary.

As attack ads from the Romney and Paul campaigns have weakened Gingrich’s lead in New Hampshire and Iowa, the consequence has been a rise in the polls for Paul. In addition, in Virginia, the Republican Committee disqualified over 1,000 signatures for both the Gingrich and the Perry campaign (Gingrich was leading Romney in the polls in Virginia and Romney is considered the “GOP establishment choice for nominee”). The only two that qualified for the ballot were Romney and Paul. In 2008, Paul bested Romney by a large margin in Virginia – the state GOP in attempting to block Romney’s competitors, set up a probable win for Paul in that Super Tuesday State.

Taking all of the preceding into account, the opportunity for Paul’s campaign to take the lead in several states, with Gingers continuing to poll high in South Carolina and Florida, sets up a 2008 déjà vu for Romney, and the possibility to Paul to seriously compete, especially in states where there are more liberal/moderate primary and caucus voters, and large delegate shares. This brings up the question as to who the Democrats would rather have as an opposition candidate – Romney is their first choice due to the media and GOP focus on Romney, the Obama campaign amassed vast amounts of political intelligence on the former Massachusetts Governor, all but ignoring the rest of the candidates. At this stage it the game, it would be difficult but not impossible to attempt to garner the same intelligence against Paul and Gingrich, who both have long and open records, which are more difficult to distort. In addition, both Gingrich and Paul can claim Washington “outsider” status – Gingrich on the length of team out of Congress and Paul simply because of his Libertarian ideology. In Paul’s case, especially, an ideology that appeals to the Democrat anti-war base.

All bets are currently off the table as to which way this primary will go, however, the eventual nominee, should the current Presidential Approval rankings hold, will face an incumbent that has an average approval well under 50%, with a majority of American’s dissatisfied with the direction of the country, in numbers not seen since 1979 (the last year of the Carter administration, where President Carter, not unlike President Obama, saw a job approval spike in the later end of that year – to no avail.) Therefore, either Gingrich, Romney or Paul would be in a position to win the general, however, it is more likely, given the historical makeup of the 2008 general GOP primaries, that both Gingrich and Paul will be the last men standing, unless Romney can, on a national and state by state level, move past is 20 – 25% support, with New Hampshire currently, the only state where he is above 20% in pre-primary polling.

Gingrich a Look Back – The Bush Take-down and Rise of the Republican Congress – Reviled and Respected by Both Parties – The Negotiator and Deal Maker

Newt Gingrich and Bill Clinton talking Budgets - image Washington Post

From the Washington Post: a column by Bob Woodward, offers insight into the rise and fall of Newt Gingrich within the Republican Party and those in the establishment who still harbor resentment for actions taken by the powerful Speaker of the House. In brief, Gingrich is blamed by President H.W. Bush for his eventual loss of the Presidency, not for the fact that he actually was drummed out of office on the pledge that he would not raise taxes, then did so in a deal with Democrats, but because in this article, Gig rich clearly would not sign onto a deal that he felt was not in the best interest of the American People, and was not well negotiated, it was a bad deal.

This is of course, paraphrased, in an article that covers the history of Gingrich and the House by Woodward, and it is suggested that he entire article be read to fully understand how an outsider, one who does not go with the Republican Party, is treated by the Establishment, as well as how a Powerful Speaker who is also a Republican, and who works closely with a Democrat President to get things done (President Bill Clinton), is anathema to both parties who would prefer to sit back and draw partisan lines in the sand and call it a day.

Key words that stuck out like a sore thumb, better negotiation and deals – if that does not make Gingrich sound like the Donald Trump candidate, no one does. Which brings up a point – Trump has stated on numerous occasions that if the Republicans’ fail to nominate the right candidate, then he would run as an independent. Understanding that he may not be referring to Gingrich at all, but speculating that he may given the verbiage used and the former Speakers ideology about negotiating from a point of strength, in addition to the latest move of the Establishment GOP to oust Gingrich off the Virginia Primary ballot by disqualifying over 1000 signatures, insisting that each one must have a voter ID, whereas that was not a previous requirement, smacks of a set-up to knock Gingrich out of the race. (See the point that Romney may not make it past Super Tuesday and the possibility that Ron Paul may take Virginia) – Should Donald Trump carry through on his promise to run given the circumstances of the Republican nomination and not knowing which candidate he feels would be the best to broker deals and be the best negotiator, one can only understand that Trump will take votes from both Democrats and Republicans, in numbers sufficient to throw the race back to Barack Obama. It is the Democrats Dream.

The scenario of a third party candidate was the exact circumstance that led to the reelection of Deval Patrick in Massachusetts by one point – an election, David Axelrod, Obama advisor and campaign guru, watched closely and hoped to put into play for the 2012 general.

The Newt Gingrich as anti-Republican, and in plain language egotistical, is seen in the latest article from Politico, that headlines: Newt Gingrich, Bill Clinton battle over 1990s legacy one finds that there is no quote from Bill Clinton, rather those “Democrat Strategist” pulled for the beltway to remark on events in which they were clearly not involved. This completely contradicts Clinton’s own words, in an interview with Newsmax (Article Here: in which he Praises his “Old Foe, Gingrich)

Suffice it to say, that not one of the pundits have a crystal ball, nor the blogger or the hundreds of pollsters how have come out of the woodwork lately, to give an indication of how the vote will go in the GOP primary – but the constant media drumbeat is as follows: Mitt Romney will be the nominee, Newt Gingrich will continue to decline in the “polls”, and Ron Paul is not a serious candidate. One might recall the constant drumbeat for Romney in 2008 and McCain in 2008, two individuals who are keen moderates in the vein of an Olympia Snow of Maine, and who the Republican Party believes will be able to “play ball” and keep the status quo. It is the conservative candidates that who might cross party lines to get the job done, without caving in completely (See current Speaker Boehner), that are poison to both he GOP and the DNC.

It may well be that Romney is the nominee, and in that case, everyone from the Obama campaign (who has the opposition research to launch a very aggressive campaign against Romney) to the establishment Republican’s who have another Bob Dole or John McCain, will be thrilled, while millions of independents and Republican’s (not the political class) will find themselves either staying home, or going to the polls knowing that the vote they cast may have one of two results. Romney would lose, similar to those who have gone before with the same ideology and marketing, and /or Romney will win, and that means we have a former Governor of Massachusetts in the White House, and from this perspective, it will mean little change from one administration to the other – there will be no bold moves, and lots of compromises in order to maintain the status quo.

Of course, a lot will depend on Donald Trump and Ron Paul, who one can gather will have an impact on the outcome of the 2012 election. It appears that the GOP has grossly underestimated Ron Paul’s constituency, and his national appeal to those who would cross party lines – to vote for a man who has a foreign policy ideology that is slightly more progressive in practice than President Obama!

To achieve the above scenario, one must also takes into consideration that the media does not hold the sway they did in 2006 to 2008, and that the negative ads that Romney and Paul have unleashed on Gingrich will then be turned upon one-another. It will be a Phoenix that rises out of the ashes of that fiasco that will eventually gain the nomination. One thing may be stated without one prediction being made; the race may indeed be decided by March. The outcome of which, is anyone’s guess, but looking at current polling and should the GOP keep its hands off the state’s primary process, then that candidate may well be Newt Gingrich. Suggest watching Clinton Interview with Newsmax.

2012 GOP Update: Gingrich Soars in SC and National Gallup, Romney To Fight Back – First Must Battle Data Dump of MA Computers from 2008

The new Top Tier: Gingrich and Dr. Ron Paul - image mediaite.com


The fact that the Iowa and New Hampshire Caucus and Primary are now four weeks away has current front runner, Newt Gingrich, the target of just about everyone who is connected to Washington or the Romney Campaign. According to Gallup Gingrich leads Romney by 15 points, and the President by continues to hold historically low approval ratings. Rasmussen reports Romney is behind Obama by 2 points, while Gingrich now leads the President by 3 – both within the margin of error. In the GOP Primary, Rasmussen shows Gingrich with a lead of 38 to 17%(Romney), (that data coming from Dec. 1st, while Gallup’s release was on Dec. 6th, with similar results.

Over at Public Policy Polling: Gingrich Leads in both South Carolina and Colorado by 51 to 14 in SC and 37-18 in SC (PPP).

Romney is not going to take this surge by Newt Gingrich sitting up straight and playing nice: Lately, Romney has met with the Republican Royalty, the Bushes CBS, and most recently Romney received the backing of Dan Qualye, former V.P. under President George H.W. Bush.

Further, according to the blog TPM a track on Karl Rove (former Advisor to George W. Bush, also known as the “Architect” of the Bush campaign’s has been less than kind to every candidate but Romney. Although, one has to take all of this as a given, as Romney has been considered by the Republican Establishment as a “given” for the nomination since 2008. Even with all that help from his friends, Romney feels the need to target Gingrich who, at this point in time, and with a 10 plus point lead over Romney in both state and national polling, may be difficult to remove from his perch.

Gingrich appears to have the lone distinction of being disliked by almost everyone in Washington, from the Post, to key Democrats such as Nancy Pelosi, but more importantly to the a small number of Republican’s in the Senate and Congress, who have a lot to say about leadership, and organization, or in their words, a lack thereof. Of course, that may play well with other Congressional Representatives, Karl Rove, the Bushes, and or a variety of RNC operatives, but how well does that play in the heartland? One might refer to the polls.

Before Mitt Romney can go on his mission to destroy Newt Gingrich (by rehashing old records, and repeating Rovian slurs, (and perhaps a pointer or two from the Bushes and Dan Quayle), he has to deal with the fact that his administration dumped all email correspondence just prior to his abandonment of the Massachusetts Governors office for a run at the White House. The story, which has been bubbling below the surface since November 18, 2010, speaks to Romney’s spending over $100,000 in Massachusetts State Taxpayers Dollars (a mere drop in the bucket considering Massachusetts and waste of Tax Payers Dollars), to buy staff computers, and then wipe the hard drives clean of any electronic communication that then Governor Romney or his staff may have written or received in the three years he acted as Governor (campaign for President in the 4th year) The move to do so was considered unusual by former Governors: Cellucci, Weld and Swift, and the entire revelation of the sale and wipe of the Romney computers leak to the press - was blamed on the Obama administration. Apparently the spin is Deval Patrick (D-MA), current governor, and pal to President Barack Obama, was so filled with angst over Romney (who has not led in polls since anyone but Romney entered the race), that the administrations lawyer leaked the facts to the Boston Globe. (First Amendment Center)

Romney should have realized the Governorship he held was in Massachusetts, where, if one were to read The Blues State by Jon Keller, available on Amazon for a pittance one would understand that dirty politics rule Beacon Hill, and although the dominant political party is Democrat, those Republican’s in position of power, tend to tread similar waters. The book is a real eye-opener and well documented.

The balance of the world media has run with the story as of this morning: December 7th and the tale of Romney ridding history of emails during his tenure can be read from Canada, or one might catch it on the morning news. However, it is apparently the norm for the systems to purge outgoing governors records automatically (according to the Boston Globe), but that does not explain the physical purchase and wipe of the drives Secretary of State, Democrat William Galvin will be releasing the paper trail from the Romney administration soon. From an historical pespecxtive it is unfortunate that the emails were lost. However,from the Romney campaign’s perspective wiping these electronic documents and selling the computers to staff members was completely legal under Massachusetts law (again read that book “The Bluest State”).

Side note: although to this mind it is of little consequence given the fact that the release of Sara Palin’s emails during her tenure as Govenor of Alaska revealed that she did her job, while the bulk of the emails were so mundane, that those news outlets that paid a pretty penny to gain access, were sorely disappointed. That may have been the case with the Romney emails, but the fact that theses emails were specifically erased, legal or no, raises questions.

Ron Paul, who is now second in most polling to Gingrich, essentially replacing Romney, has gone negative in his campaign ads, and as Romney plans to do the same thing (given the LA Times report), one can anticipate a backlash against both the Romney and Paul campaign. The reason Gingrich is known as the “smartest guy in the room” is simply because he has kept a civil tone throughout, focused on the nation, rather on tearing down his peers, and that, from past elections, both state and national is the smartest move one can make. Negative advertising gives no advantage – therefore, the suggestion to Dr. Paul’s campaign abandon the attacks and play up one’s ideas and one’s own record. As a resident of the State of Massachusetts who lived under the Romney administration – the message to that Campaign - don’t change a thing.

In closing the latest Gingrich ad that is running in Iowa is shown below.