2012 Update – Sarah Palin on the Move, Media increases coverage, while Signs May Point to Announcement Sooner than Later.

Sarah Palin, Media watches for signs of 2012 run - image NY Sun


Sarah Palin has been the subject of more than a few media reports over the past few days, those in the media who would read into the slightest move of a “potential 2012 GOP candidate” seeking signs that the former Governor of Alaska is ready to jump into the fray, grasping at any conceivable “straw” that would indicate a run for office. The latest an AP report that Sarah Palin will be appearing before the “mainstream media” at a Long Island business group luncheon, taking questions for an hour with the media present and cameras rolling” (Forbes). The piece, compete with quotes from a Rutgers University Professor who hedges her bet by first noting the appearance is most likely financial (Palin, like most other politico’s are paid for appearances), then adding that it may also be a political move. The role of Republican Strategist in the article is play by Ed Rollins, who is, rolls out that her appearance may be political. He is, politely put, somewhat sarcastic in his view of her “first foray” in front of a camera and offers up the advice that one must be “be on guard and make sure your answers are precise." (>Forbes)

Last week, Palin hired a Chief of Staff for her Political Action Committee, leading all media to stand up and take notice: From above the lower 48, Alaska Dispatch.com’s “Palin Watch” gives an overview of media reaction and its obvious connection to a 2012 run, but offers no opinion, rather links to media sites covering the “story”.

The pollsters:

Public Policy Polling, released a poll and blog post on the GOP “field” entitled “Romney and the Birthers. The poll itself asked the usual questions as to individual candidates favorability, unfavorabilty and the percentage of Republicans and Leaners who might vote for a particular candidate. This time, the pollster also included a question asking if the respondents believed the President was born in or outside of the U.S. – what they found was that Romney does not fare as well as Palin with those who hold the belief that the President was not born in the U.S. Of course, on the face of it, that’s not news, but with this particular firm it is a telling jab. The firm is a Democrat leaning pollster, they have appeared, for the past two years, to be actively seeking an alternative to Obama, while at the same time propping him up the best they can. One can hardly blame them for a little partisanship, however, their polls, when the races are done, normally are spot on, within a point or two of the actual outcome.

Looking at the Marginals of the polls taken over the past several months tells the bigger story. Palin, is in the top “tier” of candidates scoring at or near the top of the potential GOP field. However, although she comes in third for the most part behind Romney and Huckabee, her favorability ranking is, 90 percent of the time, higher than the aforementioned.

The pollsters make no pretense to their preference on the GOP ticket, suggested reading Huckabee is the Best for Now, goes on to opine on why Huckabee may be better than Romney, Gingrich, or Palin as a choice for the GOP. This plug for Huckabee is interesting in the fact that at this stage of polling, the points separating all “potential candidates” is minimal. However, with the writing almost on the proverbial wall regarding the likelihood of a one-term Presidency for Obama, it is in the makeup of those who are politically vested to begin to look at the opposition party and make a choice as one of “them” is going to be the next President.

Spin as they might, as the polls continue into 2011 and announcements are made, the dynamics of the polls will change. It is apparent at the moment that Huckabee and Romney are faring better than Palin, (with that nagging exception of favorability) in a GOP contest. It is, as they say, a long way to Iowa, and the candidate who is out front first, will, in all likelihood, stay in the public eye longer, those who wait, may repent in leisure in this never ending cycle of American politics. Should Huckabee, who, in the past was not a strong fundraiser, but had the ability to turn thousands into millions of votes on a shoestring budget, waits until June or July of this year to announce, then one might find available cash heading towards those candidate who announce earlier. Two in particular, Romney and Palin, both have substantial cash on hand via their packs. One must however, never underestimate either Palin or Huckabee who are not predictable politicians.

How they fare against Obama in national match-ups is again, within points of one another (speaking of the top three Huckabee, Romney and Palin), with, the latest poll (see birther question), the President bested by an “unnamed Moderate Republican”, but overall winning the day over Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich and Palin, who come in behind the president in that order. Given the fact that in polling done in 2007, pitting Hillary Clinton and Obama, the President , Obama trailed Clinton by 22 points. Therefore, the national polls pitting Obama against any one of the “potentials” should be taken with a grain of salt. Moreover, it is useful to Palin (and her staff) to understand that, with points separating her from her male counterparts, her favorability ratings are more positive than the later.

The state by state polls, as well as national samples of the “GOP” matchups are available at publicpolicypolling.com/surveys

Heads up:

What is not being reported, but is worth noting is the increasing number of similar blogs, the purpose of which is Palin 2012. Within the past few days, these numbers have grown exponentially: To understand the scope in numbers of the all important grassroots bloggers visit The Book of Sarah, view the right hand of the blog template, and find a list of blogs for Palin, all using the same template. It is the beginning salvo. It is, in this opinion, more telling that hiring a Chief of Staff, more telling than speaking “on camera” before Long Island Business leaders (although that in itself, is, considering the aversion the business community has to Obama’s recently unveiled budget, which is not mentioned in the AP story of extreme reading the “tea leaves” interest.) – It is similar in scope to the 2007 Huckabee Model – How important were bloggers to Huckabee in 2008? Ask anyone in Iowa. Ask Mike Huckabee.

The break in communications: From a few weeks there was little communication from Sara Palin: From January 28th through February 11th Palin’s Twitter Account went black. The same could be said of Facebook. Granted, this is all “Tea Leaves”, but the break in daily tweets and her posts to Facebook, for a woman who is consistently in the spotlight, might indicate a decision was being made. The timing of the return of Palin to Twitter and the emergence of Blogs 4 Palin might be seen as a indication that a decision has been made, and, if one were to place any bets, an announcement will be made sooner than later. As Palin is competitive, and has been “First” in several categories (i.e. first woman to be Governor of the State of Alaska, First woman to run on the GOP Ticket as Vice President), it would not surprise if she were first to announce her candidacy for the office of the President and her intent to run in 2012.

Note: Huckabee continues to maintain his bloggers through his PAC site as well as through “Huck’s Army”, and although there are some indications that Huckabee will not run, there is more supportive “evidence” that he may. Again, from this perspective, an announcement on the part of the man who leads the pack should be sooner than later.