Scott Brown-- Liz Warren Poll – Warren Leads Brown by 6 Points – Mass. Independents Choose Brown by 22 Points –. Brown Job Approval at 57%?

Elizabeth Warrens full Speech at the DNC Convention in Charlotte - Video WSJ Convention Coverage.

The Springfield Massachusetts Republican commissioned the most recent poll on the Brown-Warren Senate race – Warren is up by 6 points over Brown in this particular poll, which was taken over a rolling period and has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.2 (or a 95% confidence in the results).

According to the polls Marginals (locaed here at wne.edu), the makeup of the poll of 444 responders Included 163 Democrats, 61 Republicans and 217 Independents (or in Massachusetts, Unenrolled). The Secretary of State’s 2010 statistics on voter registration show: 4,190,907 total registered voters, of which 36.48% are Democrats, 11.33% Republican, .38% Libertarian and 51.61% Unenrolled (or Independent), .2% are “other”. Brown bested challenger Martha Coakley in the 2009 special election by 52 to 47%, in an election where 53% of the State’s Registered voters turned out.(massvotecount.com)

Using the model of the Marginal’s for the latest WNE poll, 36.7% Democrats were sampled, 13.7% Republican and 48.8% Independent, a fairly representative model, with a plus 2 and minus 2 polled between the Republican and Independents polled.
Of course, what’s behind the numbers if the geographic data and the undecided’s, with Brown losing Western Mass, which includes the Democrat Strongholds of Springfield, Northampton, Amherst, and most points west, as well as Boston Proper, while Warren loses Central Mass and the North and South Shore. Undecided in this race: 5% Democrats, 6% Republican and 9% Independents.

That same poll has Brown’s job approval rating in Congress (The Senate) is strong at 57% of all respondents, broken out by Gender: 53% of Women approval, and 62% men – which begs the question…??? – Until one looks at the regional breakdown. Western Massachusetts 82 respondents, central MA 55, North and South Shore 136 and Boston/Suburbs at 171, compared to voter registration statistics, Western Mass has the fewest registered voters in the state, by a margin of 2 to 1 to over Western MA (Voter Registration Statistics), therefore, what’s in a poll is just that. Over sampling of an area that is more sympathetic to one political party over another, while showing Brown with stellar Favorability and Job Performance (losing both in Western MA), somehow losing to a Little Known, Harvard Professor by 2 points (adjusted for the margin of error.)

As Jobless Claims Rise, Cost of Milk, Food & Gas Rise – Media Turns Attention to Romney & Ryan’s Religion! Anything but Economy & the Oval Office

Grab Your Pitchforks The Mormons and Catholics are Coming! Comedian Stephen Colbert - pitchfork in hand - image from the agnostic library.com

Bloomberg reports that jobless claims rose for the 2nd straight week in August – the job market is still stagnant. In addition, consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since January – Bloomberg finds that, for some reason, the public is pessimistic about the economy. From the same Bloomberg report, it is noted that the cost of fuel has risen, to the point where families are cutting food in order to fill their gas tanks(KVAL – Eugene Oregon). Those families are making hard decisions as the cost of food has also risen over the past four years, milk and corn products will also see increase, conditions such as drought coupled with the high cost of fuel (delivery of the food to market) has effectively increased what one would pay at the grocery store to the point where paychecks are stretched so thin that there is little left. This effects every single person living in this country, regardless of whether one has a job and pays taxes or one is holding an EBT card, the money is now barely covering basic needs. In Bloomberg’s report, the fact that companies are concerned about the uncertainty of U.S. tax policy is cited , not cited, increasing regulations from new government programs, which drives up the cost of compliance (think paperwork). Simply put, American business is being cautious, and has been for the past three years, because it is better to stay in business with the employees one has left, than to take the risk of having to layoff additional personal in a short period of time (there is a cost associated, both in human capital and in real capital).

The U.S. media, will of course, cover this somewhat, citing that “job claims rose unexpectedly” (emphasis on the unexpected), and reiterate the fact that the economy was in dire straits before the President took office – a narrative that has little to do with what took place after Barack Obama assumed the role of the Chief CEO. It is the policies in place by this administration which are responsible for the current state of the economy, no matter how much fluff, finger pointing and distractions that are thrown at the general public, the fact remains, the buck stops with the CEO, or in this case, with the President.

The President’s increasingly dismal record, explains the media’s sudden intent on the religions of Republican nominee in waiting, Mitt Romney and his V.P. choice, Paul Ryan. One need only subscribe to “Google News alerts” on Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan and find one negative blog, newspaper article, and or local television affiliate report on Romney’s Taxes, Romney’s past business associations, and Ryan’s Medicare plan (note: they are using a proposal that was written before the actual plan that is quite different). Now, as those strategies appear not to have worked so well (given the gigantic crowd disparity between Romney/Ryan events and those of President-Candidate Barack Obama and his V.P., Joe Biden), the polls showing Romney cutting Obama’s lead in places necessary to win an election, and in some cases passing the President by double digits (likely voter polling begins now, and that will clarify the data – see notes on polling below), the media is left with little – but to focus on both candidates' religion.

For Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney, it is all about uncovering Mormonism – a landslide of articles and network specials are appearing on the fact that Mitt Romney is a Mormon – rather odd when one considers that, with few exceptions, the fact is well known, and has nothing to do with anything. The focus on Ryan’s Catholicism is of note, apparently, the comparison between Ryan’s practice of the faith, and any Democrat who supports abortion and call themselves Catholic, has begun. Branding Ryan as an extremist who holds the point of view that abortion is against Catholic Church policy – defies logic – because it is the Catholic Church and its teachings, not the secular pro-abortion lobby that defines Ryan’s faith. There is a piece worth reading here: Daily Caller: “Media declares open season on Mitt Romney’s Mormon Faith”.

From a personal perspective, as a Catholic with Evangelical Christian leanings, and a healthy respect for the Constitution, a political moderate who will cast a vote, regardless of party, for the politician who holds fiscal restraint dear to heart, and is more to the dead center, the focus on the frivolous by the media and the Obama Campaign is a complete turn-off. Therefore one finds themselves weighing the options, and making choices based on what one finds when one weighs those options. The decision to support Mitt Romney came only after all other options were exhausted, and there simply was no alternative. Sounds harsh, however, as the choice was made, and digging deeper into the candidates background necessary to be able to justify the support – articles on character, and faith as well as deeds emerged, that made supporting Mitt Romney easier, and not without a lot of enthusiasm. Suffice it to say, had the information on Romney’s personal side been readily available when the contest began, Romney would have been a first choice. Paul Ryan, as the V.P. choice and said support, came out of the gate, no hesitation at all – because his record in Congress, and how he runs his life (going back before any Tea Party), made him an outstanding Representative of the People. Ryan’s style, is not unlike that of Scott Brown, although there are variances, one can be certain, both men care more for the people they represent, than the political party.

Thus, the “grab the pitchforks, we’ve got ourselves a Mormon with a Real Catholic!” brouhaha from the media (and if one thinks they are not supporting the current administrations reelection efforts, think again). To the moderate, who comes in all forms, (Democrat, Republican, and Independent), the single most important factor in this election cycle will be: which candidate and that candidate’s policy can get us out of this mess? - The constant “anti” drumbeat which has pervaded the nation’s news media for the past 15 years, has worn thinner over time and more obvious, which is something that the aforementioned have failed to notice. Blind, political partisanship has that effect - Rome is burning, and yet, the news media chooses instead to focus on religion and negativity.

Note on polling and processes: There are several types of polling and pollsters who are now tracking the Presidential and general election races for Congress and the Senate, and have been since 2011. The method most often used, is general polling, mostly automated (either by a firm or university using a computer based model that dials random households and offers prompts to whomever answers the phone and completes the survey), which is far less expensive as a method, and far less accurate in predicting an outcome than a “likely voter” poll, which measures likely voters, rather than the general population. There is more data mining involved, thus the cost is increased, as well as the accuracy. These types of polls will come into play with more frequency after the RNC and DNC conventions. The first out of the gate, a bit early, came via Fox: who explains the methodology at the end of the article on the poll results: “The Fox News poll is based on live telephone interviews on landlines and cell phones from August 19 to August 21 among 1,007 randomly-chosen likely voters nationwide. Likely voters are registered voters who are considered most likely to vote in the November presidential election. The poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). For the total sample, it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.“
Although that poll did use likely voters to come to the conclusion that the race for the White House is a virtual tie, it is still subject to scrutiny: (See Article from The Examiner: which notes that the Fox poll oversampled Democrats by 8 points. That said, likely voter polls are considered the most accurate as far as an attempt to predict the outcome – simply because if one is a likely voter, one is more likely to vote, or be registered to vote, rather than a general poll which shows support for a candidate, rather than an indicator that those polled may actually vote.
All polling, regardless of methods, and padding the poll with an extra percentage of one party or another, does serve to uncover “trends”, which aids a campaign in deciding which method might best be used to attract voters. It is obvious by this point, that regardless of the method, the sheer amount of vitriol and negative press, as well as campaign ads from the candidate (President Obama) and his supporting PAC’s, suggest a race that is not as tight as the polls suggest, and those 8 points added as a cushion, are just that. Any poll that offers a 6 point lead going forward, for any candidate, would suggest that candidate would win that state, or federal race. In the case of oversampling, therefore (taking the fox poll as an example), the dead heat poll, taking 8 points from the Democrat, with a 4 point margin of error, would suggest a decisive victory of 4 points.

Hillary Clinton 2012 V.P. – Unlikely – Positive Replacement for both Biden and Obama – USA Today Poll: 2-1 Obama Voters Likely Not To Vote - Analysis

Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton - image: thegloss.com

The calls for President Barack Obama to replace the, at times, embarrassing, Vice President, Joe Biden are coming from both the right(Meghan McCain on Clinton as V.P. Replacement), and the center(Orlando Sentinel Editorial Board), however there are two factors that would not allow this public cry for President Obama to switch V.P.’s. The first is that the President is sticking by Biden (Examiner.com) and the second, it is more likely that Hillary Clinton would not accept the position. Reason suggests as she is not attending the Democrat 2012 Convention in North Carolina and, would better serve the nation on the top of the ticket, there is zero chance of Hillary Clinton trading places with Joe Biden - she is Presidential material. Of course, the later is this opinion, and has been since the race for the Presidency in 2008 came down to three candidates: McCain, Obama and Clinton.

How much does Biden matter? It depends very little, considering that few people can even name a Vice –President, and the general political think is that those that vote generally vote for the top of the ticket, with the V.P. choice of either party being designed more or less to “attract the base” or core group of political ideologists from one side or the other that actually get out and vote. Therein lays the problem for the Democrats this year. A new USA Today poll, conducted by Suffolk University suggests that 90 million voters will stay home this year, with 2 in 1 of those backing President Obama’s reelection. What is, perhaps, most interesting about this particular poll is that of those polled, over half are registered to vote, and 80 percent of those have the government playing an “important role” in their lives (USA Today). Blame the negative ads, blame the fact that both candidates are not some votes cup of tea, or the fact that they are simply not interested enough to get out and vote, the fact remains that if the top of the ticket is unlikely to motivate two in one necessary voters that rely on the government, something in not currently working in the administrations drive to “spread the wealth” and maintain a edge in voters at the same time. Apathy is most likely fueled by the economy – one never takes into consideration that those who are working for a living and seeing their paycheck disappear at the grocery stores, are no different than those on the EBT card or whatever form of assistance, finding their “dollar’ also shrinking. Apathy, translates in to a political nightmare, and this poll, by a large margin, gives clues as to the real State of the Union which are far from encouraging to the man currently in the Oval office. Which brings up another reason why Clinton might not accept the position (other than she should be President), running on a ticket whose chances are appearing slim, (disregarding polls that assume it’s close), would be a colossal waste of time and treasure.

Palin in Long Island – Media Outlets Travel Across Nation - The Import of Palin and Her Candidacy for the Media

Palin Speaks to Long Island NY Business Leaders - Image New York Times



Sarah Palin spoke before a “packed room” at the Long Island Business Association Luncheon and it was noted by Long Island Business News that “there was plenty of media at the LIA annual meeting”… “some news outlets came all the way from Los Angeles to hear Palin speak.” For the woman who may or may not run for the Presidency in 2012, and has been dismissed time and time again by the majority of “mainstream” news outlets, it is telling that they made a virtual migration to the burbs of New York’s Long Island to hear Palin answer questions posed by the Business Associations President. It emphasizes the import that is placed on Palin by this group that often attempts to diminish her as a candidate.

The New York Times article with its conflicted headline, “Palin Opens Up and Plays Coy” was, interestingly, one of the more “balanced” of the 954 articles on her visit to Long Island (latest Google News Count 6:49 AM EST). The piece began by focusing on the fact that she did not head to one of the more traditional GOP primary states one visits if planning to announce, however, followed with a quote by Palin noting that “no one is more qualified than a woman to be President”, which was well received by the audience, especially the women. The article follows with quotes from Palin on her decision to run, and the subsequent announcement should “come sooner than later”.

They went on to cover Palin on the fact that she was speaking in front of media other than Fox News, her take on Social Networking, her stance on the questions over Obama’s birth certificate (which she finds of little consequence, an annoying distraction to important issues (NYT)*, her stand on health care, and an actual quote from Palin on her “death panel” remark. The Times calls her, amazingly “not a fully formed political figure” then candidate”, then went directly to the quoting Robert Zimmerman, who represents New York on the Democratic National Committee, who called her an “Atlantic City Lounge Act for the right wing” but, and here is the big but, and why one might find the Times and other outlets standing up to take notice: Zimmerman’s’ “Democrats should not to dismiss her potential, saying, “Suburbs have the largest swing voters in the country, which concerns me.”

The Times also reported that she received more applause from a bi-partisan group than anticipated by the Association President – and to look for her to do more of these “types of formats” in the futures” (NYT)

What one learns from this piece is the fact that the media and Palin are working on their love-hate relationship, an important step in the direction of a woman who may run for the Presidency. For that many “news outlets” to attend a business luncheon on Long Island for someone whom they eviscerate on a daily basis goes to the import of the subject. What they came to hear: she will make an announcement sooner than later. (In 2008, most announcements came in February/March of 2007). Most importantly, a Representative of the National Democratic Committee felt it was important to be in the same room, and voiced concerns about her potential as a candidate (after a typical right-wing remark) – which is hardly dismissive. Moreover, The New York Times also ran a second article "Palin, on Long Island, Answers Budget and Worldview Questions" (Read here)in Politicis same day, which contained less editorializing than the norm.


*Birthers and Palin were combined in a recent Public Policy Polling article/poll read article here at Public Policy Polling blog. One should not, the polls taken by this particular firm are more reliable than most, however, the firm decidedly lean Democrat.

The latest poll taken by PPP on the State of Tennessee and a hypothetical matchup between Obama and the GOP Candidates: Palin Ties with Obama, Trails the balance of the GOP candidates. To tie in Tennessee this early out is indicative of a competitive challenger, (based on polling done on 2008 races and the eventual outcomes as candidates dropped out, and dove into the race), however, PPO suggests that Palin should consider her options as she merely ties with the President. The negatives (editorials) from this firm, despite the numbers, should also be noted. It is, one should note, far too early to make assumptions based on polling a field of hypothetical candidates. However, for those political junkies, it allows for tracking progress, or decline, (should one announce), and gives those considering a run, the opportunity to see where they may need to concentrate campaign efforts.

2012 Update – Sarah Palin on the Move, Media increases coverage, while Signs May Point to Announcement Sooner than Later.

Sarah Palin, Media watches for signs of 2012 run - image NY Sun


Sarah Palin has been the subject of more than a few media reports over the past few days, those in the media who would read into the slightest move of a “potential 2012 GOP candidate” seeking signs that the former Governor of Alaska is ready to jump into the fray, grasping at any conceivable “straw” that would indicate a run for office. The latest an AP report that Sarah Palin will be appearing before the “mainstream media” at a Long Island business group luncheon, taking questions for an hour with the media present and cameras rolling” (Forbes). The piece, compete with quotes from a Rutgers University Professor who hedges her bet by first noting the appearance is most likely financial (Palin, like most other politico’s are paid for appearances), then adding that it may also be a political move. The role of Republican Strategist in the article is play by Ed Rollins, who is, rolls out that her appearance may be political. He is, politely put, somewhat sarcastic in his view of her “first foray” in front of a camera and offers up the advice that one must be “be on guard and make sure your answers are precise." (>Forbes)

Last week, Palin hired a Chief of Staff for her Political Action Committee, leading all media to stand up and take notice: From above the lower 48, Alaska Dispatch.com’s “Palin Watch” gives an overview of media reaction and its obvious connection to a 2012 run, but offers no opinion, rather links to media sites covering the “story”.

The pollsters:

Public Policy Polling, released a poll and blog post on the GOP “field” entitled “Romney and the Birthers. The poll itself asked the usual questions as to individual candidates favorability, unfavorabilty and the percentage of Republicans and Leaners who might vote for a particular candidate. This time, the pollster also included a question asking if the respondents believed the President was born in or outside of the U.S. – what they found was that Romney does not fare as well as Palin with those who hold the belief that the President was not born in the U.S. Of course, on the face of it, that’s not news, but with this particular firm it is a telling jab. The firm is a Democrat leaning pollster, they have appeared, for the past two years, to be actively seeking an alternative to Obama, while at the same time propping him up the best they can. One can hardly blame them for a little partisanship, however, their polls, when the races are done, normally are spot on, within a point or two of the actual outcome.

Looking at the Marginals of the polls taken over the past several months tells the bigger story. Palin, is in the top “tier” of candidates scoring at or near the top of the potential GOP field. However, although she comes in third for the most part behind Romney and Huckabee, her favorability ranking is, 90 percent of the time, higher than the aforementioned.

The pollsters make no pretense to their preference on the GOP ticket, suggested reading Huckabee is the Best for Now, goes on to opine on why Huckabee may be better than Romney, Gingrich, or Palin as a choice for the GOP. This plug for Huckabee is interesting in the fact that at this stage of polling, the points separating all “potential candidates” is minimal. However, with the writing almost on the proverbial wall regarding the likelihood of a one-term Presidency for Obama, it is in the makeup of those who are politically vested to begin to look at the opposition party and make a choice as one of “them” is going to be the next President.

Spin as they might, as the polls continue into 2011 and announcements are made, the dynamics of the polls will change. It is apparent at the moment that Huckabee and Romney are faring better than Palin, (with that nagging exception of favorability) in a GOP contest. It is, as they say, a long way to Iowa, and the candidate who is out front first, will, in all likelihood, stay in the public eye longer, those who wait, may repent in leisure in this never ending cycle of American politics. Should Huckabee, who, in the past was not a strong fundraiser, but had the ability to turn thousands into millions of votes on a shoestring budget, waits until June or July of this year to announce, then one might find available cash heading towards those candidate who announce earlier. Two in particular, Romney and Palin, both have substantial cash on hand via their packs. One must however, never underestimate either Palin or Huckabee who are not predictable politicians.

How they fare against Obama in national match-ups is again, within points of one another (speaking of the top three Huckabee, Romney and Palin), with, the latest poll (see birther question), the President bested by an “unnamed Moderate Republican”, but overall winning the day over Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich and Palin, who come in behind the president in that order. Given the fact that in polling done in 2007, pitting Hillary Clinton and Obama, the President , Obama trailed Clinton by 22 points. Therefore, the national polls pitting Obama against any one of the “potentials” should be taken with a grain of salt. Moreover, it is useful to Palin (and her staff) to understand that, with points separating her from her male counterparts, her favorability ratings are more positive than the later.

The state by state polls, as well as national samples of the “GOP” matchups are available at publicpolicypolling.com/surveys

Heads up:

What is not being reported, but is worth noting is the increasing number of similar blogs, the purpose of which is Palin 2012. Within the past few days, these numbers have grown exponentially: To understand the scope in numbers of the all important grassroots bloggers visit The Book of Sarah, view the right hand of the blog template, and find a list of blogs for Palin, all using the same template. It is the beginning salvo. It is, in this opinion, more telling that hiring a Chief of Staff, more telling than speaking “on camera” before Long Island Business leaders (although that in itself, is, considering the aversion the business community has to Obama’s recently unveiled budget, which is not mentioned in the AP story of extreme reading the “tea leaves” interest.) – It is similar in scope to the 2007 Huckabee Model – How important were bloggers to Huckabee in 2008? Ask anyone in Iowa. Ask Mike Huckabee.

The break in communications: From a few weeks there was little communication from Sara Palin: From January 28th through February 11th Palin’s Twitter Account went black. The same could be said of Facebook. Granted, this is all “Tea Leaves”, but the break in daily tweets and her posts to Facebook, for a woman who is consistently in the spotlight, might indicate a decision was being made. The timing of the return of Palin to Twitter and the emergence of Blogs 4 Palin might be seen as a indication that a decision has been made, and, if one were to place any bets, an announcement will be made sooner than later. As Palin is competitive, and has been “First” in several categories (i.e. first woman to be Governor of the State of Alaska, First woman to run on the GOP Ticket as Vice President), it would not surprise if she were first to announce her candidacy for the office of the President and her intent to run in 2012.

Note: Huckabee continues to maintain his bloggers through his PAC site as well as through “Huck’s Army”, and although there are some indications that Huckabee will not run, there is more supportive “evidence” that he may. Again, from this perspective, an announcement on the part of the man who leads the pack should be sooner than later.