Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee (two former Governors) lead the field of GOP "potential candidates" image: current.com

In their latest 2012 Presidential polling of South Dakota Public Policy Polling surveyed a sample of 1045 South Dakota voters, matched closely to the electoral makeup of the state. In the case of South Dakota, Huckabee again, bests the list of potentials, with the exception of state Senator, John Thune. However, against Obama, Huckabee leads by 47 to 41%, Romney by 46 to 40%, with the balance of the GOP “frontrunners” (Gingrich and Palin specifically), trailing the President by 2 points (Gingrich) and 8 points (Palin). With this latest survey, the pollster views South Dakota as a swing state for Obama in 2012, based on the performance of McCain in 2008, who won the state by “less than 9 points”, and the performance of those who may or may not run on the GOP ticket.

In Arizona, which was polled on February 2nd, the state appears more competitive for the President, with Romney and Huckabee leading Obama by 49/43(Romney) and 48/44 (Huckabee). The balance of the GOP primary choices in this survey were limited to the top four, leaving Obama tied with Gingrich and ahead of Palin by 9 points.

In Republic State Primary scenarios, the latest polling shows Huckabee bests Romney, Palin and Gingrich in South Carolina, coming in behind South Carolina’s Jim DeMint by 4 points, and ahead of Romney by 6 according to a survey conducted February 1st by Public Policy Polling.

In the final analysis, according to Public Policy Polling, Huckabee and Romney appear likely to emerge as the two strongest candidates in early GOP primary states. Romney has been running the talk show circuit, appearing on the ”The View”, and showcased his agreement with Obama on the current situation in Egypt, noting that Mubarak should step down. He also appeared on the Dave Letterman show, spoofing a “Top Ten Things You Don’t Know About Mitt Romney”, which according to Politico was designed to show “voters he’ll be a better, more relaxed and relatable Mitt this time around”.

Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee has been in Israel, commenting on Palestinian Settlements noting that those Jewish settlers on the West Bank have a right to be there, which, according to the AP, is in direct opposition to International leaders including Obama. In addition the AP story casts Huckabee as an “evangelical leader and Fox News host”, rather than his primary role as former Govenor of Arkansas (not mentioned). Time reports that Huckabee’s views on the Obama administrations’ handling of the situation in Egypt are at odds – Huckabee believes that the administration was too quick to abandon Mubarak. Huckabee's views are at odds with Romney’s, who has sided with the Obama administration.
Huckabee, one must note, has been a staunch defender of Israel, as our only ally in the Middle East, and the recent trip gave the former Governor an opportunity to highlight his foreign policy views and where they may differ from Obama, and for that matter, Mitt Romney.

Although Romney has all but formally announced his intention to run, Huckabee, leads in the majority of polling by PPP to date - both men seen by that pollster as the frontrunners. That said, in polling against Obama in Massachusetts, Romney does not hold his own state faring better than the balance of the GOP potential candidates in the survey conducted on Dec. 3, 2010. In this particular poll, however, the electoral make-up is skewed towards Democrats, with the following discrepancy Democrats 42%, Republican 20% and Independents 38%. Massachusetts Independents dominate both parties, making up over 50% of the electorate, with Republican’s holding approximately 12 to 14% and Democrats 35%. To date, this is the only poll conducted by this pollster, where the electoral makeup did not closely match those polled. (Using voter statistics from Secretary of State Websites in each of the polls conducted.)

Overall, one can look for Huckabee to announce (or not), either end February or when his contract with Fox expires (or he takes advantage of any clause in the contract which allows him to bow out). Huckabee has noted, however, that if he announces, it will not be until June of 2011. That may accomplish two things: he will have a solid understanding of which states he fares best in (with thanks to PPP), regarding primaries, and will give him the additional time to sum up any late entries into the competition as well as work on foreign policy. In that wise, although considered a frontrunner now, (by pundits and pollsters) he would, in reality become a fresh face in the pack, one armed to the teeth.

Conservatives in GOP Push Indiana’s Pence To Run for 2012 Party Presidential Nomination

GOP's Pence for President? Answer due by end January - photo Think Progress.com

According to Politico GOP Conservatives are pushing Indiana Congressional Representative, Mike Pence, to run in 2012. Named in the article are Dick Armey, Chairman of Freedom Works’ Tea Party and the Chris Chocola , President and CEO of the Club for Growth. This puts Pence in the position of choosing between a run for the Indiana Governor’s seat or a run for the GOP Presidential Nomination.

In terms of “conservative red meat”, Pence fits the bill, as he is a fiscal and social conservative, who Armey believes could best the current pack of those speculated as possible contenders including Palin, Romney and Huckabee. Armey, bluntly called the pack, “old names” who he believes “don’t have much of a chance”. (Politico)

What is interesting in the choice of Pence is that the two organizations who back him differ slightly: although both grounded in fiscal conservatism, Club for Growth is more Washington Establishment, while Freedom Works is decidedly Tea Party.
Moreover, although the argument can be made that a Governor of a State or Commonwealth would make an excellent Presidential candidate due to having had executive experience, Congress is a stepping stone to the Presidency. The last, before Barack Obama, was President John F. Kennedy who went from the Senate to the White House in the election of 1960. (Barak Obama went from the Illinois State Senate to the Illinois Federal Senate Representative, to the White House in short order).

Pence is apparently gong to decide on which office he prefers to run for by the end of this month. Pence is, like a John Thune (R-CO), a virtual unknown to the Public, as the actual 2012 field begins to take shape in mid-2011, there may be other “unknowns” suddenly on the national radar – not unlike Arkansas Mike Huckabee, who was in that same position in 2007. He is now, along with Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney are currently the top three “polling” choices for those firms that deign to speculate – come February they may add Pence to the list, (along with Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum and possibly Rudy Giuliani, and yes, Donald Trump).

If the election of Obama was any sign of the attention span and voting habits of the American Public, the likely nominee will most likely be the individual who is the most media savvy and photogenic. Should a “straw man” be pushed into a run, in order to say, act as a block for another candidate, then the GOP will find themselves with another John McCain on their hands.

To learn more about Mike Pence and his stand on the issues visit: Mike Pence.house.gov

2012 GOP Potential Candidates the Media A-List in Review

2012 GOP Frontrunners (as of December 2010): Romney, Palin and Huckabee: image: freedomslighthouse.net
As 2011 is upon the political horizon, the year that those who will run for the office of the President of the United States are either in the process of, or have already made a commitment to run in the GOP 2012 primary. A great deal of speculation has taken place; it seems as if the question of who would run began to take shape as soon as the current occupant at Pennsylvania Avenue was sworn into office.

Every news outlet has its opinion on who is in the “pack” of potential candidates, a selection of network news, online blog, a news magazine and a national newspaper were chosen for this overview to show how the speculation differs, or remains the same, depending upon the medium.

According to ABC News the list of primary contenders includes: Frontrunners: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee, they list “Chief Challengers”; Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour and John Thune. The last category “Wild Cards” includes Mike Pence, Ron Paul, George Pataki, Rick Santorum and John Bolton. One of the “Wild Cards” is now considering a run for Governor of Indiana, that would be Congressman Mike Pence.
(The Wall Street Journal analysis of Pence as a potential candidate follows the logic of one who has built “stature” within the GOP.)

The conservative National Review online offer no less than 24 possible candidates:

Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, John Thune, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Mike Pence, Rick Santorum, Haley Barbour, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Paul Ryan, David Petraeus, Ron Paul, Jeb Bush, John Bolton, Bob McDonnell, Jim DeMint, Chris Christie, Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, Judd Gregg, Marco Rubio, and Rick Perry.

The author, Jonah Goldberg, goes on to narrow the field to eleven, “Romney, Gingrich, Palin, Pawlenty, Santorum, Bolton, Daniels, Cain, Johnson, Paul, and Thune.” He further eliminates those who might not have the traction during the primary contest to make the authors top five: “Romney, Palin, Gingrich, Pawlenty, and Daniels”. His reasoning for eliminating Mike Huckabee, generally considered to be the top if not tied at the top contender in all polls: : “there’s growing buzz that Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and a fierce defender of his top-tier contender status, may not run because he’s got a big new contract with Fox News in the works.”

Finally, USA Today follows the money to bring the top five potential GOP frontrunners to the table. vis a vis, money raised through individual PAC’s (Political Action Committees). USA Today employed CQ MoneyLine and the Federal Election Commission data to reach the following Conclusions as to which of the above mentioned (in all articles) will likely rise to the occasion based on the dollar amounts raised by their respective PAC’s as well as monies donated by those PAC’s to GOP candidates and committees. The amounts are based on the 2009-2010 filing/election cycle.

The breakdown:
*Haley Barbour (Governor, MS), Haley’s PAC, $1.1 million, disbursed $233,590 to GOP
*Mike Huckabee (Former Governor of Arkansas), HuckPAC, $1.8 million, disbursed $137,500
*Newt Gingrich (Former House Speaker), American Solutions PAC, $705,279, disbursed: $224,750
*Sarah Palin, (Former Governor of Alaska), SaraPAC, $5.4 Million, disbursed $516,500
*Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota Governor), Freedom First PAC, $3.3 Million, disbursed: $214,111
*Mitt Romney (Former Governor Massachusetts) Free and Strong American PAC, $7.4 Million, disbursed $827,708.

Therefore, if one “follows the money”, and granted these are PAC’s not campaign contributions generated by the individual candidate, however, for the sake of speculation, this scenario places the contenders in the following order: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, Haley Barbour and Newt Gingrich. The political capital gained by disbursing funds will also come into play, however, of note: Mike Pence, who is missing from this list, crisscrossed Indiana this year in support of local Republicans, contributing over $84,000 to their campaigns and attending 30 events for state legislative candidates. (Wall Street Journal),. The aforementioned goes to intent as to the office of the Governor rather than that of President.

That said, one must recall the battle of Iowa in 2008, where one Mike Huckabee, with an estimated $80,000 dollars, outspent by Mitt Romney who invested millions, and won the day. It is, therefore, a necessary combination of willingness to take the heat, the ability to inspire a true grass roots following, and the ability to raise enough money to run a successful campaign through the primary to gain the nomination. In that case, Grass Roots would go to both Palin and Huckabee, Palin also will score higher on fundraising, while, Mitt Romney’s strength is in cash alone. (Of course, all analysis is based on the assumption that the aforementioned will run at all, and will end up being in the position of front runner).

Furthermore, should this scenario unfold as likely,(with the three most visible GOP contenders as of this moment), one must look to the obvious: which one of these three would be able to hold enough states necessary to win the primary and then go onto hold those states to win a general election. Romney has proved that he can hold the Northeast (coast), the West (coast), the northern states (MI, WY, UT), but fails in the Midwest and the South. Huckabee, on the other hand, may have trouble in the Northeast (specifically more liberal states and states that Romney calls home), but can handle the South and the Midwest. In looking at states where Huckabee and McCain competed in the 2008 primary, the point differential was minor between the two candidates, and with Romney in the mix, he was normally third. Palin, who is, like the current occupant of the White House, more controversial, yet appealing to the same conservative base as Mike Huckabee, should do well in those very same states.

Should these three be locked in a battle, it would, in this opinion, boil down to two candidates Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin. That is if Huckabee, will, as some sources in Arkansas have already indicated, run in 2012.

Of note: both Palin and Huckabee have used the media (specifically Fox and other outlets) in order to maintain a national spotlight.

An excellent bio of all ABC’s potential candidates is available with the article abcnews.co.com/Politics/2012-republican-presidential-candidates-abc-news-guidebook/story

Speculation Rife on 2012 GOP Nominee – 2006 Eerily Revisited

The American media is at it again. All sources, from mainstream to blogs, are speculating on who will run and who will receive the 2012 GOP nomination. One can find a daily prediction via the airwaves and internet, on who is leading who in polls for the GOP nomination, who is attending what Conservative conference, and who is likely to pull ahead as the eventual GOP Presidential candidate. The obvious choices in 2012 are consistently in the limelight as evidenced by the articles on Sarah Palin in the Los Angeles Timesregarding Palin’s attendance at the Southern Conservative Leadership Conference being held in New Orleans. The gist of the article is that Palin has not “ruled out a run” for the GOP 2012 ticket. The The Boston Globe offers: “GOP Gathers, gets Look at Possible Picks for 2012” with Palin and Gingrich highlighted in the opening paragraph. (Interesting side note: That article speaks to the futility of any GOP candidate as it touts the current President:

“Only five times in the last century has an incumbent president lost reelection; the most recent were Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Republican George H.W. Bush in 1992.”

Note to the Globe: Comparison between Carter and Obama have been made since last February)

Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are also featured in a barrage of news articles, citing the fact that they are leading the pack of potential picks. The GOP sends out poll/fundraising packets listing those aforementioned as possible choices for the 2012 nomination, but again, that’s in a fundraising effort and using familiar and popular names insures a decent return on the investment.

Take a look back at 2006 to gain some perspective. In March and April of that year, a similar Memphis GOP meeting was held. At that time, the names being bandied about were Rudy Giuliani Los Angeles Times, Haley Barbour, John McCain, Sam Brownback (with a quote from Mike Huckabee, then Governor of Arkansas, Fox Newsincluded Romney, George Allen and Bill Frist in the fray – with Rudy Giuliani as the favorite.

Although several of those attending this similar conference did emerge to run for office, the “favorite”, Rudy Giuliani did not fare well, while the battle emerged as being between Romney, Huckabee and McCain (who was considered by pundits to be anathema to the GOP “TO SOME IN GOP, MCCAIN NOT QUITE RIGHT, SENATOR LEADING IN POLLS, BUT MANY CONSERVATIVES IN S.C. DON'T TRUST HIM”, Charlotte Observer

An interesting pattern appears to have developed – the pundits may be onto something – historically, individuals who have familiar names offer comfort and controversy. In the 2006 scenario, McCain who’s media attention was very positive until he began to move to the right (with exception of Conservative Pundits who preferred a Giuliani), eventually obtained the nomination in a three-way contest between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Huckabee, appeared to come out of nowhere, and on a shoestring budget upended both McCain and Romney in the early Iowa Caucus. Of course, the early pundits championing McCain (even as he moved to the right), were on the money.

Today, the pundits are focused primarily on Romney, Huckabee (either ruling him in or ruling him out) and above all Sarah Palin. Palin has generated more speculation, the majority of it in the negative (or positive depending upon political bent of the media) that the other two mentioned. She is hardly a media darling, yet draws huge grassroots support (see Huckabee 2007), while Romney and Huckabee are given polite mention. There are other names in the fray, one of which is the Senator from South Dakota, John Thune. The New York Times article in November of 2009 takes a critical look at Thune as a possible 2012 nominee, noting that his “name keeps popping up” at no place other than “deep in the bowels of the GOP”.

In other words, it’s a not necessarily too early to be calling any frontrunners in the race, although pundits picks of the frontrunners, specifically Palin, is interesting. Should history repeat itself, then Palin, one would assume, would be the eventual nominee, a later day “Maggie Thatcher”, who was at first belittled by the UK Press as being less than worthy, and given time, came roaring back on what amounted to a stunning grassroots victory. Although maligned in the media, for the most part, Palin fits the 2006 John McCain mold perfectly, that is unless of course, John Thune does emerge from the “bowels of the GOP” to be a serious contender. One would expect, however, that Thune would be present at any of the given “conferences” held this year. Not necessarily, he is making 2012 headlines as evidenced by the AP’s, ”GOP Hopefuls Edge Right at Tea Party Watches”, including Thune in a list of contenders.

Therefore, as of now, it’s anyone’s best guess, and nothing more. Thune could emerge as the next “Mike Huckabee”, Mitt Romney is almost a given to be on the ticket, and Palin, although not having announced her intention to run (or not run), may actually sit this one out (see Maggie Thatcher). What one should watch is the following months, going into 2011, especially after the 2010 mid-terms – should the focus remain on two to three names above, one can bet that one of those will eventually be at the top (or bottom) of the 2012 ticket. Ron Paul, of course, will run and win every internet straw poll available. As it stands now, the two most likely to take the nomination (based on media predictions) Palin and Romney. No matter which would emerge as the nominee, one can bet that should the angst against Obama continue unabated through the following year (going into 2011), he will, like Jimmy Carter, be a one term President, and the next President could be more of an “historical” choice than the later. From a feminist point of view, should Palin emerge as the frontrunner, regardless of naysayers, then she would be the first women to sit in the Oval office. One has to remember that women were last to gain the right to vote in this country. Of course, one cannot count out a Clinton (Hillary) run in 2012.

Kerry’s Negatives – A Plus for Challenger Jeff Beatty

The Boston Herald article this morning regarding John Kerry’s challenger, Jeff Beatty, references the uphill battle the campaign faces in the “bluest” state – a state that is known to heavily favor the Democrat party. They fail to note that the state is more heavily “independent’ and that both the Democrat as well as the Republican parties (the later always penned in the press as embattled) lost equal enrollment in the past 4 years. In addition, most of the Democrat incumbents go unchallenged; it may be the mindset, furthered by a state and national press that any other party would fare ill within the “Bluest State” – bunk!

Jeff Beatty is the first qualified candidate to face Kerry in a dozen years, and the fact that Kerry is facing opposition from within his own party for the first time in 24 years is telling. The Herald ponders the question whether Kennedy’s illness will play a factor in the Kerry race – should Kennedy leave the Senate, the state might need Kerry to help keep the federal support that Kennedy brings home. Why would the Herald and or the people of the State believe that Kerry would suddenly become more engaged than he has in the past? Beatty, an effective businessman, who has garnered significant grassroots support, is an effective campaigner who would take his experience to Washington in order to further the interest of the residents of the state. Kerry’s lackluster performance for the state, coupled with the anger of those in the Democrat party who are upset with his support of Obama over Clinton, will aid Beatty’s already well-established campaign.

It is interesting to note that every national article as well as articles from papers in the Bay state use the moniker “little known” when referring to Jeff Beatty, preferring instead to focus on Kerry, Ogonowski’s failure to make the ballot, the State’s and national Republican party’s preference for Ogonowski ad nausea and the “eventual” return of Kerry to the senate. Beatty’s treatment by the press is similar in scope to that received by a “little known” John Thune, who made history by unseating the first Senate Leader in 52 years – Tom Daschle.
More on Jeff Beatty from the Worcster Telegram

Jeff, a US Army veteran, will also participate in the Dedham Flag Day parade this Saturday. Interesting Fact: Flag Day is also Army Day and this year marks the 233rd anniversary of the founding of the American Army.