Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee (two former Governors) lead the field of GOP "potential candidates" image: current.com

In their latest 2012 Presidential polling of South Dakota Public Policy Polling surveyed a sample of 1045 South Dakota voters, matched closely to the electoral makeup of the state. In the case of South Dakota, Huckabee again, bests the list of potentials, with the exception of state Senator, John Thune. However, against Obama, Huckabee leads by 47 to 41%, Romney by 46 to 40%, with the balance of the GOP “frontrunners” (Gingrich and Palin specifically), trailing the President by 2 points (Gingrich) and 8 points (Palin). With this latest survey, the pollster views South Dakota as a swing state for Obama in 2012, based on the performance of McCain in 2008, who won the state by “less than 9 points”, and the performance of those who may or may not run on the GOP ticket.

In Arizona, which was polled on February 2nd, the state appears more competitive for the President, with Romney and Huckabee leading Obama by 49/43(Romney) and 48/44 (Huckabee). The balance of the GOP primary choices in this survey were limited to the top four, leaving Obama tied with Gingrich and ahead of Palin by 9 points.

In Republic State Primary scenarios, the latest polling shows Huckabee bests Romney, Palin and Gingrich in South Carolina, coming in behind South Carolina’s Jim DeMint by 4 points, and ahead of Romney by 6 according to a survey conducted February 1st by Public Policy Polling.

In the final analysis, according to Public Policy Polling, Huckabee and Romney appear likely to emerge as the two strongest candidates in early GOP primary states. Romney has been running the talk show circuit, appearing on the ”The View”, and showcased his agreement with Obama on the current situation in Egypt, noting that Mubarak should step down. He also appeared on the Dave Letterman show, spoofing a “Top Ten Things You Don’t Know About Mitt Romney”, which according to Politico was designed to show “voters he’ll be a better, more relaxed and relatable Mitt this time around”.

Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee has been in Israel, commenting on Palestinian Settlements noting that those Jewish settlers on the West Bank have a right to be there, which, according to the AP, is in direct opposition to International leaders including Obama. In addition the AP story casts Huckabee as an “evangelical leader and Fox News host”, rather than his primary role as former Govenor of Arkansas (not mentioned). Time reports that Huckabee’s views on the Obama administrations’ handling of the situation in Egypt are at odds – Huckabee believes that the administration was too quick to abandon Mubarak. Huckabee's views are at odds with Romney’s, who has sided with the Obama administration.
Huckabee, one must note, has been a staunch defender of Israel, as our only ally in the Middle East, and the recent trip gave the former Governor an opportunity to highlight his foreign policy views and where they may differ from Obama, and for that matter, Mitt Romney.

Although Romney has all but formally announced his intention to run, Huckabee, leads in the majority of polling by PPP to date - both men seen by that pollster as the frontrunners. That said, in polling against Obama in Massachusetts, Romney does not hold his own state faring better than the balance of the GOP potential candidates in the survey conducted on Dec. 3, 2010. In this particular poll, however, the electoral make-up is skewed towards Democrats, with the following discrepancy Democrats 42%, Republican 20% and Independents 38%. Massachusetts Independents dominate both parties, making up over 50% of the electorate, with Republican’s holding approximately 12 to 14% and Democrats 35%. To date, this is the only poll conducted by this pollster, where the electoral makeup did not closely match those polled. (Using voter statistics from Secretary of State Websites in each of the polls conducted.)

Overall, one can look for Huckabee to announce (or not), either end February or when his contract with Fox expires (or he takes advantage of any clause in the contract which allows him to bow out). Huckabee has noted, however, that if he announces, it will not be until June of 2011. That may accomplish two things: he will have a solid understanding of which states he fares best in (with thanks to PPP), regarding primaries, and will give him the additional time to sum up any late entries into the competition as well as work on foreign policy. In that wise, although considered a frontrunner now, (by pundits and pollsters) he would, in reality become a fresh face in the pack, one armed to the teeth.