Thursday, October 23, 2008

Most Accurate Pollster of 2004 - McCain - Obama Tied

One cannot pin the election on most polls, if any, due to the size of the sample, the shift of public opinion from one day the next and the perception created by the media. The Battleground polls are fairly accurate, as well as the IBD/TIPP Poll. The breakdown of the poll shown below - From the IDB/TIPP poll data released today released today:
"McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deļ¬cit to a 9-point lead among Catholics."

2 comments:

Ideaman said...

Love your site...I have been looking for people just like you......! Please glance at my cobbled together blog on idea for election: CRITICAL ELECTION! Can you "see" the leverage of it....over 200 hours left in election. Can you email five people you trust, who can see beyond the obvious, and truly evaluate this idea?

http://lightacandle.blogtownhall.com/

or

http://read-write-deliver.blogspot.com/

Thank you for being a tremendous Conservative! Sometimes I feel so alone with my coworkers who say politics and who the president is doesn't really matter. Arrrggghh!!

Sincerely,

Matt

Tina Hemond said...

Hi Matt, welcome and thank you - you are not alone, there are many normal citizens blogging on both sides, of course, but I am finding more conservative bloggers lately, especially in those states that are designated as "Blue". Ah, apathy! You realize of course, that those who are apathetic are less inclined to vote. That said those who are complacent are also less likely to vote. Thanks to CNN, CBS, and the like, with polling every four year that is inaccurate in the extreme, one wonders if somehow, those who most desire to affect a certain outcome, are actually doing themselves harm? To wit, those who may be inclined to support Obama on the 4th, yet, are certain of a Landslide, (as noted by media outlets), may just stay home - frankly, it makes one wonder, because George W. Bush was elected to a second term, when John Kerry won all the debates, Independents were clearly for Kerry, and on and on - until, the 5th, (or late evening the 4th), when it was clear, those polls and the vast numbers of Democrats vs. Republicans that one hears about so often were in error and failed to appear.

I will say this, with few days left before the election, minds have been made up - the likelihood of someone still being undecided in hard to imagine, therefore, we need only wait for the results. I believe it will be close, as it was in the last 2 elections. It will be what it is, but I believe strongly that McCain will prevail. Now, as to those co-workers, do they also, the day after the election - ask you what happened? How on earth could so and so get elected? They don't believe their vote counts, they don't vote, and then they complain!

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