Tuesday, October 04, 2011

2012 Update - Cain Tied With Romney in new CBS Poll – Speculation: Palin Decision – After October 11th.

The rise of the Second Tier to First Tier - Cain with Gingrich? - image bookerrising.net

From CBS News: A poll released today by CBS News shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney tied with conservative businessman, Herman Cain. The CBS poll was conducted over a five day period ending October 2nd, and included 1012 adults, however, there was no indication of party affiliation and or voter or intent to vote status. Of the eight GOP candidates, both Cain and Romney are at 17%, followed by Perry at 12%, Gingrich at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 4%, Rick Santorum at 3% and John Huntsman at 2%. The undecided are currently at 18%, down from 22% two weeks ago. Herman Cain has shown a meteoric rise in the past two weeks, going from a 5 to 17% tie with Mitt Romney.

CBS Poll from CBS News.com

Marginals are not available on the CBS News website, however, the fluidity of the polls at this juncture is normal, and although there may be “front-runners”, their fortunes are subject to change as debates take place, and positions are solidified. Sarah Palin, former GOP Vice Presidential candidate and Governor of Alaska, has yet to announce her intentions. She had stated in an interview in Iowa in early September that she would make her decision public by September or October. It would not be out of character for Palin to announce as a late entry at the end of October, given her name recognition, and fund-raising ability. The next GOP debate will take place on October 11th, at Dartmouth College sponsored by Bloomberg Television, the Washington Post and WBIN TV. It is unlikely that Palin would make an announcement prior to that debate as she is schedules to speak at the World Knowledge Forum in South Korea, the same day . However, the next schedule debate will take place on the 18th of October, in Las Vegas Nevada. That debate is sponsored by CNN and the Wes tern Republican Leadership Conference.

The best option for Palin to enter the field in October would be after her appearance at the World Knowledge Forum and before the CNN debate on the 18th. This would give time for the current field to have one more showing at the debate forum - which should give Herman Cain a solid advantage over both Perry and Romney, while allowing Gingrich enough air time to gain ground and push ahead of Rick Perry. Therefore, Palin would have the advantage of coming into a level field - using CNN limited data, assuming no changes to the undecided’s, she would pull the undecided’s, while peeling votes from Perry and Bachmann to take the lead going into the November debates. Should Palin decide, against the odds (given her grassroots campaign –in-waiting, and appearances giving every indications she will be a candidate), not to run in 2012, one can see Cain with his populist, upbeat and take no prisoners persona, pulling well into the lead running into November, as he would pull any Palin “undecided’s” to his campaign.

Additional as of October 4, 2011 via Politico: "Sarah Palin-affiliated law firm made early-state deadline inquiries": Note: Palin is the only other candidate that comes to mind, uses this law firm and is considering a run for the Presidency - Those odds just got better.

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