Low Voter Turnout Predicted in MA – Lack of Absentee Ballots Cited - Mass. Has Wavier for New Absentee Ballot Law & Lower Enthusiasm among Democrats

An articlein the Attleboro Sun Chronicle notes that voter turnout is expected to be low – by “Town Officials”. The reasons: non-competitive primaries and:

"I don't believe there will be a large turnout. We haven't received a lot of absentee ballots," Plainville Clerk Ellen Robinson said.”

First, to say that the primaries are non-competitive, especially in Massachusetts, one has to have been living under a rock or in denial. The GOP has over 200 candidates vying for both state and federal offices, while either Progressives or other Democrat factions are actively challenging Moderate Democrats in several races (See Lynch (D), MA 9th, Capuano in the MA8th, both Democrats are being challenged, Lynch by an SEIU Labor Leader and Capuano by a Kennedy, no less. If one looks at the FEC (Federal Elections Commission) filing for 2010, one gets the picture as there is a literal sea of challengers in each of the Congressional District races. In addition both parties have primaries on the State Level.

As to the absentee ballots, one has to question that as well – specifically the military – recent waivers given to certain states, including Massachusetts, to comply with a new military voter’s access law. The Secretary of State’s website insists that the military members will be able to request these documents by email, however, they must be returned via snail mail a system that can take up to 45 days or more. This may be why there hasn’t been a deluge of absentee ballots, specifically from the military.

With the primary tomorrow, one has to look to voter enthusiasm, as the state’s primary is based on a two-party systems, with the two majority party’s showing a rather lopsided enrollment (more Democrats than Republicans), and Independents (or unenrolleds, able to vote, but only if they temporarily claim a political party), the turnout, based on voter enthusiasm may, for the first time, show equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans voting. Polls show that GOP enthusiasm is high, while the Democrats are not as interested in this year’s primary.

To ward off any appearance of a lack of enthusiasm, especially for certain incumbents (D) who are running unopposed, one can anticipate that the Democrat Party (aided by local unions) will have sign holders and rallies on Election Day. The theory goes; that the media will see those sign-holders and automatically conclude that there is a greater amount of support for the Democrat, rather than the Republicans who are actually holding a competitive primary in several districts. An email obtained by this blog here indicates this is the case in the Hampden 2nd, where Richard Neal is running unopposed, yet will have union support at polling places.
One has to assume the same would be true of all incumbents where the union agrees, Lynch being the exception.

One can anticipate more competition once the primaries decide who will be challenging whom in the upcoming election on November 2nd, but the question will remain, can the Democrat forces that now feel ownership of the Commonwealth, make a pre-Brown/Coakley comeback and staunch the anti-incumbent sentiment that is more pervasive today than on January 19th of 2010? Unlikely. One has to factor the unenrolleds who may be more inclined to vote in this primary and general election and are the majority of the Commonwealth's registered voters (51%).