Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Tom Wesley, Republican Candidate Against Richard Neal (D-MA), 2010 Election Profile and Analysis


Tom Wesley, candidate for Hampden 2nd Congressional District MA - running against Richard "Rangel" Neal

Tom Wesley, a Navy veteran and international businessman, won the Hampden 2nd District primary yesterday and will go on to face, 12 term Democrat Incumbent Richard Neal in the November Mid-term. Not surprisingly, the race has, to date, received little to no attention on a national scale, (or local scale for that matter, example: this race is not mentioned today in the Districts Largest Newspaper, The Springfield Republican. The paper is instead, focusing on the the Hampden County District (Democrat) attorney race and adding other races in more as after thoughts) In addition, Google News alerts for this Congressional District, as of 6:21 am yielded 4 (four) news stories total on this particular race. Interestingly, avoidance of this sort was also used in the January 19th Special election, where Brown Bested Coakley in the Hampden 2nd.

Tom Wesley, now with a primary under his belt, is ready to take one of the most low-profile, dangerous Democrats in the Congress, one Richard Neal. The plus side, is Neal, who ran uncontested, is not viewed favorabliy in the District and although no polling data (other than internals) exists yet, one has to factor Neal as vulnerable, due to the need to bring Bill Clinton in to stump for him and the local Union sending out emergency emails to hold standouts for Neal (running uncontested) at polling places yesterday. (So he would not appear vulnerable). Therefore, Tom Wesley stands a better than even chance of becoming the first Republican in over two decades to rest the seat from Neal and hand it back to the people.

Although an AP story, which is being quoted in articles regarding Tom Wesley (Boston Globe, post primary edition)includes an AP story line released on the 11th of September, about a bankruptcy filed by Tom Wesley for a business he owned in 2000. Businesses, not unlike politics, have their ups and downs, and filing for bankruptcy is no shame in Corporate American. Consider in 2002 KMart filed for Bankruptcy Protection, with the only consequence being the company survived. Therefore, the fact that Tom Wesley, running as a fiscal conservative, filed bankruptcy for a business in 2,000, (10 years ago), is somewhat of a moot point, and possibly the only point that Richard Neal will have as ammunition against Mr. Wesley.

How well will that work for Neal? That remains to be seen (most likely with like minded committed Progressives and union leaders(note: note the rank and file), however, one thing is certain, negative ads will not work in this district (or other districts in the Bay State) – and running on his Record, may be something Neal would rather avoid, given his straight Party line voting pattern for the past 24 years.

The Tea Party and the Pioneer Valley.

Yes the Tea Party was a factor in this primary election, giving Wesley the preferred Tea Party status, which will be helpful to him in the general. Based on the numbers (lower voter turnout), however, Mr. Wesley must now turn to attracting the all important unenrolled voter, and here’s where it gets easier. A recent gallop poll on trust in institutions comes into play in regards to Tom Wesley’s candidacy: The military (extends to members past and present) is the number one trusted institution in the nation, followed by small business, which ranked 2nd, according to the same poll, Congress (see Richard Neal) ranks dead last in Confidence. Therefore, Mr. Wesley scores twice in confidence, where has Neal begins the general with a negative.

Mr. Wesley will be a formidable candidate against Richard Neal and with the support of the Tea Party as well as Conservatives, Independents and, yes, Democrats, he is in a position to best Neal. What Tom Wesley took from the Primary is the need to target Springfield hard (Richard Neal’s Home Town) along with Chicopee, and yes, Northampton. Without those three cities, regardless of the eastern part of the district weighing in, one cannot win a general. Those conservatives in Springfield and Chicopee will look forward to the radio, television ads plus the hip mailers from Tom Wesley, as will those unenrolled neighbors who are critical to the outcome. Therefore, as Mr. Wesley will be working for the Hampden 2nd, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and the United States of America, please visit: www.tomwesley.com and volunteer or donate!

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