The changing tone of the Massachsuetts Electorate - Massachsuetts heading towards Swing State Status
Although there has been little commentary on a national or, for that matter, local scale, Massachusetts will hold competitive Republican primaries for both top slot State and Federal congressional federal offices today. The list of those vying for a chance to go to either Beacon Hill or Washington is available here at Politics1.com, and it is, for the first time in recent memory, extensive.
The Boston Globe, reporting on the “last seven states to hold primaries in 2010”, neglects to speak to the number of contests in the Commonwealth, rather focuses on the “Tea Party vs. GOP” matches in other states. The fact that there are very few Democrat primary contests is apparently not noteworthy, rather anticipated.
The most competitive Federal race (D) being between moderate Democrat Congressman Stephen Lynch and the Progressive, Union backed candidate Mac D’Alessandro. There are few Democrat Races that are competitive, barring a few District Attorney Slots, which dominate local news, with a mere mention, as an afterthought, of hotly contested GOP primaries for Congressional seats.
Reviewing Politics1, however, one finds that the GOP primaries in the Commonwealth are of little or no concern due to the consistent “Safe Democrat” ranking given out by Washington based politicos. Of course, one has to recall that those same pundits disregarded a little known state senator from this very same Commonwealth, back in January of this year, noting the “Kennedy” seat was “Safe Democrat” as well. This, while those here in the Commonwealth, on the ground so to speak, were literally screaming from the rooftops for attention – similar to characters out of Massachusetts own, Theodor Seuss Geisel’s imagination - “Who’s” crying out to be heard.
The system used by those pundits, is apparently not foolproof, basing the ability of a particular party candidate to move forward and best an incumbent on both (a) local intelligence, and (b) how the district or state voted in the prior election. With Massachusetts a sea of “blue”, one sitting in Washington asking the DNC how the elections are progressing, will, of course, find the Commonwealth “Safe Democrat”. However, unless one is out knocking on doors, or polling, (no polls, other than internal have been taken for Congressional races in the Bay State), then it is a different story entirely.
Is the statewide Democrat controlled Congressional Delegation at risk? If one were to believe those “outside” the state, not in the least, however, these are the same pundits who felt Coakley was a shoe-in. The interesting thing about the Brown/Coakley race was that it was not considered a national race until 2 weeks prior to the election on January 19th, when the fist of the national pollsters started to weigh in, largely due to the sheer volume of movement on the ground in the state. One has to understand that once today has passed, and those GOP candidates who have been given the go-ahead by both Republicans and Independent voters who cast ballots in the Commonwealth - all bets, as they say, are off.
Will Massachusetts, on the 1st Wednesday of November, remain a blue state, or will the Commonwealth, once again, shock the nation, by adding a bit of red, here and there? One can bet on the later. Therefore, for the thousands of Massachusetts locals searching for polls on races in the 4th congressional district, the Hampden 2nd, the 5th Congressional district and the 10th, just wait until the last 2 weeks of October, perhaps then, when the writing is on the wall, those who sit in judgment on races from their Beltway perch will once again, find that Massachusetts is not as “Safe Democrat” as previously believed.
What has been missing from the news are the passionate debates fueled by local GOP and 9/12 (or Tea Party if one will) supporters of candidates for these offices, something that is, for most of the residents, a first time experience - or more correctly, the chance to relive the ability to have a choice vis a vis the special election of January 19th. Scott Brown, (R-MA) was not an anomaly as those who are still reeling from the shock of a Republican elected to the Senate, rather he was the tip of the iceberg, as many of the Congressional campaigns were already in 2009. For conservatives in Massachusetts, (as well as Conservative leaning Unenrolleds (the majority party if one will in the Commonwealth) and Conservative Democrats, it will be good to have a choice again, going to the polls this November.
The choices for Congressional Races in November will be as follows:
Winners of Today’s primary against:
District 1: John Olver (D-MA)
District 2: Richard Neal (D-MA)
District 3: James McGovern (D-MA)
District 4: Barney Frank (D-MA)
District 5: Nikki Tsongas (D-MA)
District 6: James Tierney (D-MA)
District 7: Ed Markey (D-MA)
District 9: Winner of Primary between Lynch (D-MA) and Mac D’Alessandro
District 10: (Open Seat) Winner of the Democrat Primary
If one were to base the chances of incumbents on the “Scott Brown” races rather than the “Obama 2008 Race” one would be designating the following districts as “Lean Republican”, Districts 2 through (exception 8) 10.
What about the money? Once the primary results are in and the candidates assessed, by both the national party and PACS, but most importantly the people (again see Scott Brown who was not gaining a lot of traction until the last few days from those aforementioned),those with the GOP nod, will find the people will insure that these races are competitive.
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