Saturday, November 01, 2008

McCain pulls ahead of Obama 48-47 Zogby – Those Pesky Undecideds – Obama's Missteps

In the final weekend before the election, things are tightening - , (Zobgy), has McCain pulling ahead of Obama, (see excerpt below) – everything is within the margin of error. It is, from a rational standpoint, 2004 all over. The polling, the media, and the fact that Obama’s romance with the media (or certain aspects) has gone a tad downhill in the past week, while McCain has been making inroads in places that were given up to Obama all along – blue collar workers, and independents.
“Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."”

The AP is reporting that one in seven voters are still persuadable, however, at this late date, those undecideds or persuadable voters, generally break conservative and have already made up their minds.

Which is why John McCain has been grinning ear to ear the past two weeks – he also has the benefit of internal polls. Apparently the undecideds have decided. So, what would persuade an independent to break “right”? Some headlines with links to articles that may hold the key:

Starting in Massachusetts

  • It goes to Character:

  • Obama has an aunt in South Boston” (The Globe)
    ”Boston Housing Authority ‘flabbergastered’ Barack Obama’s aunt living in Southie”(The Herald)
  • Invasion of privacy

  • ”State employee says she was ordered to check out Joe the Plumber”(Columbus Dispatch)
  • Taxes: (Speaking of Joe the Plumber)

  • First, it’s 250,000 taxable income (Miami Herald)
    Then it was $200,000 (CNN)
    Then it was $150,000 (courtesy of Biden (American Spectator)
  • Obama’s response

  • Obama’s New Attack on Those Who Don’t Want Higher Taxes: ‘Selfishness’(ABC News)
  • Never Mind Taxes, What’s the State of His Campaign?

  • Obama “Raffles” chance to join Him Election Night (CBS Chicago) - $25.00 dollar donation for a chance to be in a spot where the press is charged a higher rate : up to $935 per reporter(Chicago Sun Times)
    Why would a campaign that had the money to run a 30 minute infomercial need to charge the media for access and raffle off the same spot to supporters?
  • The Romance with the Press – Depends on the Press

  • The NY Post, Washington Times and Dallas Morning News, conservative leaning newspapers, endorsed Senator McCain, as a result, they are no longer welcome on the Obama Plane (The Drudge Report. )and
    The Khalidi Tape, Mistake or Cover-up (Augusta Chronicle)(Referring to the LA Times refusal to release a tape of a dinner for Kahlidi (PLO),with Obama in attendance>)

    These examples, sans Ayers and Wright, go to character, temperament and the economy (both of the campaign and the nation). Add this to the fact that pollsters (Suffolk University for one) have, in many instances, given large leads to Obama, where there are undecideds in sufficient number to either tie or give the lead to McCain (Of all States - Massachusetts - Suffolk Poll). Suffolk University also conducted polls in Colorado, Ohio, Florida and Nevada, giving an Obama what can only be described as an “inflated” lead.

    What’s wrong with inflated poll numbers? Contrary to conventional wisdom that huge leads in the polls demoralizes the opposition into simply not voting, the opposite occurs; those younger voters, or those less inclined to get out the vote, figure, why bother? Obama is so far ahead, no one can beat him (It doesn’t help Obama that these voters exclusively watch and read media that is pushing the same story). Obama understands this because, unlike smiling John McCain, Obama is telling CNN that “It’s gonna get nasty” and his supporters “"Don't believe for a second this election is over. Don't think for a minute that power concedes anything. It's gonna get nasty, I'm sure, in the next four days," Obama told a crowd in Columbia, Missouri, on Thursday night. “ , he went on to blame the Republicans for anything that might come out against him: too little, too late.

    Favorite quote (paraphrased) of the week: Howie Carr (WRKO) to a caller: I was convinced John Kerry was going to win a week before the election too.
    Another perspective: Your best friends can unintentionally hurt you. The media crush on Obama became apparent early on in this election, to everyone, the constant negatives against any rival: Hillary Clinton, McCain and of course, Sarah Palin, play great with a dedicated base, but how well does it do in the middle? The blatant sexism is another story, one which has been played endlessly and the cost will be weighed on Tuesday.

    With three days before the nation heads to the polls, minds have been made up, it won’t be a landslide, it will be close, but the odds now favor McCain.

    1 comment:

    Jimmy Lewis said...

    No surprise here ... Keep the Faith!

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