Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Gallop Traditional Obama Lead Shrinks to 2, Margin of Error +/-3 – and CNN's Brown Finally Discovers Obama Breaks a Promise!

So much for Polls – the Gallop Poll’s Traditional Voter Model (those most likely to vote), is now within 2 points, and the IBD/TIPP has been fluctuating between +2 and +6 for the past week (now at Obama +4), further, pollsters are becoming increasingly leery of calling the race. Why is that? Without the internal campaign polls, it’s all a big guessing game – except, McCain is grinning from ear to ear – while Obama is clearly telling his people not to relax. It’s a horserace – modeled on elections from the past 2 generals. The only way this could be a landslide, at this point, would be if this were a repeat of 1980 (judging from the current polling trends, and outcomes, given the same Common man (Reagan) versus Elite Socialist (Carter) schematic), and then, that too is gross speculation.

This sudden realization that the media push for Obama may have personal ramifications (loss of jobs, for example, due to layoffs), has given some who may be more astute at seeing which way the wind might be blowing, a reason to suddenly become a bit less partisan. Campbell Brown of CNN had decided it was time to point out that Obama broke a promise on Campaign Finance. Although McCain pointed this broken promise (goes to character), in debates and campaign speeches, the media has ignored any criticism of Obama, heaping it back on McCain. In Browns commentary, she points to the huge amounts of cash Obama has on hand –enough to bore the country for 30 minutes on almost every prime time network tonight. What Campbell may also be aware of is, historically, large sums of cash do not necessarily translate into winning an office. One only has to look back to February and March of 2008 to understand that point. The Republican Primary had one candidate who was rolling in cash (Mitt Romney), while others McCain and Huckabee, were desperately trying to get their message across on a shoe string. The result - by Super Tuesday, the man with the most robo-calls and television commercials was out of the race and those that were cash strapped – were still in the game. Other big-money primary and general election losers of the past were Kerry and Forbes, who went on to defeat despite being well-funded.

Speaking of Obama Cash, The Obama Infomercial will be seen on almost every network with some glaring exceptions: ABC, FOX News and CNN. ABC will be enjoying an increase in viewership as well as FOX and CNN (the later two will run segments of the infomercial as “news”).
Will the Obama Infomercial convince anyone at this point in time, to change their vote? Not unless someone is so incensed that the World Series was delayed in order to accommodate Barak that they switch to McCain.

It bears repeating, no-one has a crystal ball when it comes to November 4th, polls are merely “best guesstimates”, pundits get paid to pontificate, party lines are drawn, and independents, for what its worth, generally vote the same way they always have when it comes down to the crunch, unless of course, you have a Jimmy Carter in office, or his twin trying to get into office.

2 comments:

Chuck said...

These polls are interesting in that I believe there is still a "Bradley effect" out there. I heard the Obama camapign themselves feel there could be a 5 point difference. He himself had it happen in the primaries, where? Ohio and Pennsylvania. I think Obama will win but it's not over.

Jimmy Lewis said...

Possible opening remarks from tonight's OBAMAMERCIAL:

Good Evening to all my fellow un-americans ... Tonight isn't about finding out whether I'm smarter than a Fifth Grader ... it's about finding out if I'm smarter than Al Gore or John Kerry. Tonight isn't about seeing if I'm the biggest loser ... ah, that would be John McCain for not figuring out underhanded ways of obtaining campaign funding so that he too can take up your precious TV viewing time. No, no ... tonight is all about change ... and that doesn't mean change your channel ... although you can go ahead and try ... go ahead, I'll wait ... ah ha ... here I am on CBS ... NBC ... ABC ... wow, how bout that ... I'm even here on Animal Planet ... Yep I'm spreading the wealth amongst every TV network tonight so that I may buy your vote ... so don't do as I do ... do as I say ... and I say ... it's time for CHANGE ... haha ... gotcha ... I'm also here on Comedy Central ...

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