Monday, May 19, 2008

Hillary Clinton – DNC Lost Opportunity

ABC’s political blog is reporting on a comment made by Hillary Clinton regarding the inability of Barack Obama to win in the fall against McCain – and the fact that the race between her and the Illinois Senator is not yet over. What one can’t fail to notice is that the DNC, with Howard Dean at the helm, radio pundits, talk show hosts and analyst, and the media in general, have consistently called for an early end to this race – insisting that Obama has the nomination. They may get what they wish for – eventually – especially of note: those conservative personalities that dominate talk-radio. Barrack Obama has a clear following: college students, those who have never voted, and the upper middle class. He has won handily in states where a general election has never been decided. Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, appeals to the old-model democrats, working-class, union voters who consistently show up at the polls. Additionally, she has won every single major battleground state in the primary field. The thinking that a disenfranchised group of democrats will automatically step in line behind the DNC nominee this year is a bit naive. With the media constantly calling any Republican candidate dead-in-the-water before an election (based on the losses of 3 congressional seats in special elections and the presidents approval rating), bolstering the Obama ticket, they are failing to see, in the big picture. The candidates, not the party, are who the public chooses to vote for, or, historically, vote against, or simply to not vote at all.

McCain faces the disenfranchised conservatives and those value voters who place their votes with a mind towards who will best lead the country in a fiscally responsible, moral manner. One thing about conservatives is that they have a tendency to forgive a less than conservative candidate – in favor of the important issue of judicial appointments. Failure by the media to note that George W. Bush was re-elected to a second term, after failing miserably to deliver on those issues held dear by value voters, is a mistake. Additionally, the fact that McCain is looked upon favorably by Independents and blue collar democrats who might not connect with Barrack Obama should be a factor. Hillary Clinton gets it. She has the support of those Blue Collar workers who stream to the polls, she also has the support of those older-baby-boomer women, who never miss an election, and she has also won every battleground state necessary to succeed in the general.

Although congressional and senate seats may be lost by Republicans due to their failure to try and reach across the aisle, while maintaining conservative credentials, John McCain, who is aptly described as independent minded, may appear to have an uphill battle in winning the Whitehouse, but appearances can be deceiving. Historically speaking, there have been races where the Democratic ticket should have handily beat the Republican ticket (McGovern, Dukakis - both abandonned at the polls), and vice-versa (Dole), based on media accounts at the time – however, the outcome, although shocking to some, was somewhat predictable. Prediction: After the DNC convention, should Obama win the nomination, the Vegas line, will move to the right along with the rest of the country. Hillary Clinton will then be in a position to lead the party towards 2012. Should the outcome of the DNC convention be different, then the odds will move within points and the race will be tight – with the possibility of a Clinton presidency.

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