Coakley Appears to Lead Field of Democrats for Senate Seat - The Question Remains: Will Massachusetts Elect a Woman to the Senate? Analysis

Martha Coakely - Will Feminism Play a Role in the MA Senate Race? image speakout.com

The Assocatied Press, in reporting on the special election to fill Massachusetts vacant senate seat, headlined: “Insider, centerfold lead in race for Kennedy seat”. The “Insider” they refer to is State Attorney General, Martha Coakley, who, according to the last polls, maintains a 15 point lead (Rasmussen), over her male counterparts going into next Tuesdays primary. As to the “Centerfold”, Republican Scott Brown, had posed for Cosmopolitan Magazine over thirty years ago, in order to pay his way through law school . A match-up between the left-of-center Coakley (pro-abortion, pro-universal health care, and most likely to vote along party lines) and Republican Scott Brown (a moderate, who, is one of the few Republican State Senators in the Commonwealth) is considered a safe bet for Coakley. Or is it?

Enter the debate on Women and Feminism

Nancy Hopkins, a Biology Professor at MIT, wrote an article on Huffington Postwhich asked: “Will Women Vote for a Women”? That is the pivotal question Ms. Hopkins is asking, as she outlines the pros of a vote for Coakley: She’s pro-abortion.

That said, the feminist theory that a woman should vote for a woman based on gender alone, is ridiculous. Women should vote for the most qualified candidate, and it would be hoped that said candidate would be – a woman. That is not always the case. Hillary Clinton is an example, she was the most qualified candidate in the 2008 Democrat primary, and she, therefore, won the Massachusetts popular vote, so, in that respect women do vote for qualified candidates for public office.
Martha Coakley was also elected to office, the office of Attorney General. That said one has to take a harder look at Massachusetts in general, the bluest state, with the fewest women holding top jobs via the electorate. To date: not one woman, Republican or Democrat, has held the Governor’s Seat or a State Senate Seat by popular election. There is something hypocritical about this very liberal state: the make-up appears sexist.

Additionally, Ms. Hopkins is not factoring in political ideology and the makeup of the State’s electorate. Although most of the voting bloc in Massachusetts that is affiliated with a political party, are Democrats, that accounts for approximately thirty percent of the vote, Republican’s fare less well in this state, with approximately 11% of the electorate – the balance: unenrolleds or those choosing to belong to either party.

Should Coakley succeed on Tuesday in besting the three male contenders she faces; regardless of her valiant fund-raising efforts, she must, as a Democrat and a woman, in favor of abortion, cap and trade and health care reform (all three issues not as popular in Massachusetts as one would think)run against the fiscally conservative Scott Brown, whose opponent in the State Primary, Jack E. Robinson, has been running ads all over the Commonwealth accusing Scott Brown of being a Republican in Name Only. This message will resonate well with those unenrolled voters who are enthralled by moderates. (Note to Brown, don’t forget to send Robinson that “Thank You” card.)

Coakely will Face Republican Scott Brown in MA Senate Race - image: kennedyseat.com

Therefore, the outcome will be based on several factors, should Coakley sail through the primary, she will face sexism on the State Level, she is running as a Democrat at a time when the brand is somewhat damaged due to the economy. She will also face a charismatic, experienced and qualified Senator, and moderate Scott Brown, who has been identified by his opponent as being too moderate. Although one cannot pretend to have a crystal ball, one would hazard to guess that at this point, should this scenario play out, Coakley may end up being yet another woman who has been done wrong by the Massachusetts electorate.

Andy Card Endorses MA Senator Brown – Brown announcement Saturday at 2:00 P.M. – Obama Presses Hard for MA Senate Replacement - Fear & Loathing in D.C

Scott Brown, to Make Announcment Re: MA U.S. Senate Race Today at 2 PM - photo: Facebook

Former White House Chief of Staff, Andy Card, formally endorsed State Senator Scott Brown (R), yesterday while announcing his decision not to run for the U.S. Senate Seat made vacant due to Ted Kennedy’s passing. Card stated: “Now is not the right time for me to enter a political race.
In these critical times, I know that Massachusetts would be well served to have Senator Scott Brown as the Commonwealth's next United States Senator. He has my full support."

Following Card’s decision and endorsement, Brown indicated that he would be making an announcement today at 2:00 p.m. from the Statehouse. Brown would join Republican Bob Burr, a Canton Selectman, and Democrat Martha Coakley, the Attorney General of the Commonwealth, as the third to formally announce a candidacy for this Senate Seat. Several Democrats who were considered to be possible successors to Kennedy have bowed out of the race; U.S. Representative Ed Markey, (D-MA) and more importantly, Joe Kennedy who was seen by local media as key to the tone of the race (Kennedy Dynasty)

Others who are either considering or whose names have been bandied about in the press include: Former Baseball Player Curt Shilling, who would run as an Independent, Progressive Democrat, John Tierney, Republican Michael Sullivan, former U.S. Attorney, currently working with John Ashcroft’s firm, Stephen Lynch Democrat , U.S. Congress, MA 9th District Michael Capuano, Democrat, U.S. CongressMassachusetts 8th Congressional District and The Boston Globe’s personal favorite Kennedy’s widow, Vicki Kennedy, who has already indicated she would not want an appointment, but has not yet issued a formal statement one way or the other on running for the seat.

As of this moment, Coakley enjoys strong support from within her own party, while Brown, who is more “populist” in nature, appears to enjoy local party support, and grassroots support that covers the entire Bay State and includes both Independents and Moderate Democrats. Depending upon the number of Democrats who enter the race, infighting may weaken any candidate running up to the primary to be held on December 9th; although Coakley is said to have sufficient contributions to continue through with the campaign. The same might be said on the Republican side with Brown appearing to have the most grassroots support (critical in any race), and the ability to raise funds (see grassroots), the Republican field is already narrow, and given that a primary among those who have announced would produce Brown as the candidate, should the State GOP give its blessing, the National Committee would follow suit adding considerably to Brown’s war chest. Brown would then be in the unique position to become the Commonwealth’s first U.S. Republican Senator since Edward Brook, (served from 1967 to 1979).

Pundits who are consistently bent on calling Massachusetts the Bluest State, should consider the fact that the population has changed (considerable drop in population leading to the loss of a Congressional Seat), the predominant political designation (and growing) is “unenrolled” or independent (Republican Governor’s are mainstream in Massachusetts), and the current political climate does not favor one party over the other.

They key factor in Brown’s Senate Race will be national support (from individuals, pacs and the GOP) With Barack Obamapushing for an “interim replacement” in the Bay state (directly), one understands that the climate has truly changed. If the Democrats, from the top down, we’re confident that a Democrat could take Kennedy’s Seat in the January Special Election, there would be no reason to install a name brand (enter Vicki Kennedy), replacement who, the President (and his advisors) erroneously believe, would be better positioned to best a Republican in the special election. As of now, it is speculated that the Democrats intend to push the Health Care Reform bill through the legislative process using the nuclear option (should they have enough support within their own ranks). With that in mind, a replacement for Kennedy, at this juncture, is moot, therefore, it is not only possible, but probable, that a savvy, competent, well-liked and well-funded, Scott Brown will be the next Republican U.S. Senator from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.