Mass. Special Senate Election – Primary Yawn – Low Voter Turnout Expected – Anyone’s Game?

The Senate Candidates - (Top) Gomez, Sullivan, Winslow, (Bottom) Markey & Lynch - Impage metro.us

The Massachusetts Special Election Primary is being held today, with 5 candidates vying for two positions. On the Democrat side of the aisle, one has Ed Markey, multi-term Democrat, a fixture in Washington, and a progressive, over-the-top pro-choice, “I invented the light bulb” type of guy. Steve Lynch, Democrat, Congress, several terms, not entrenched as deeply, can communicate with the working class and votes both sides of the aisle, depends on what the situation is. On the Republican side, one has Gabriel Gomez, ex-Marine, picture perfect, wrote a letter to Deval Patrick asking to be appointment, because he was such a supporter of Obama, including casting his vote for him. Mike Sullivan, nice guy, big on social issues, as in not running away from them, but as exciting as watching paint dry- in other words a solid conservative. Rounding out the field, is Dan Winslow, Libertarian-Republican – a fiscal conservative with the libertarian view of social issues.

The media is decrying the lack of interest, and suggests low voter turnout, most likely caused by voter fatigue give the last election.

The real problem is that the candidates are lackluster: one has two dinosaurs (Markey and Sullivan), one neophyte (Gomez), and then to good candidates (opinion) who would make for an interesting election – Winslow, the state Representative, who has the Libertarian bent, and is amusing, meaning he has a sense of humor, but appears to be serious as far as how his vote would be cast (and there’s good indication given his time in the Mass House, that it would be with forethought and not necessarily predictable. The same goes for Lynch, not predictable – looking out for the folks, similar in scope to Winslow. That combination would give Massachustts a win-win situation in a general election – a rarity.

However, it is Massachustts, and Markey is the anointed Progressive, unless the turnout is extremely low, and the troops just can’t get behinds Methuselah - an upset by Lynch is unlikely.

On the Republican side, one might anticipate Sullivan pulling it off – he’s got the nod of the rank and file Republican’s and any tea-party, pro-life groups behind him. Gomez has been running some slick ads, that make him very appealing, but with dvr, that’s not going to cut it – any upset would come from the underdog in a perfect world, Winslow, who has had zero media attention – unless on points to the endorsement of the Springfield Republican, which...carries little weight. – Low information voters do not read newspapers (E online perhaps, but not the – news)

This blogger will go and cast her vote this morning, anticipating a short wait in line, and a predictable outcome to the race. Not one of the candidates has crisscrossed the state, with any amount of flare, and has generated little grassroots interest outside of the Commonwealth. My pick – Winslow, for what it’s worth – on the GOP ticket, but…a Libertarian, cannot stress that enough, when one would like to see the two party stranglehold on Washington loosened a bit.

Election 2013 – Massachusetts Special Election- Primary – Does One Vote their Conscious, their Wallet or their Party? Who are the Candidates for the Senate Seat and why It Matters. – Issue: ObamaCare

In the Bay State, there appears to be one political power that is a powerhouse, the Democrats, who control the majority of seats in both the State House and the State Senate, as well as the Governor’s office, and the varied city, town and municipal offices – yet, Democrats comprise approximately 35.3% of the States Electorate, when it comes to registered voters, according to the Massachusetts Secretary of States’ office. The Balance of registered voters (from the 2012 voter rolls), 11.5% Republican, .15% Green Party, .4% other, and a whopping 52.58% who are unenrolled and hypothetically vote for whomever they please having no party affiliation. (MA Sectary of State).

There are five candidates running – two Democrats, both U.S. Congressional Representatives: Ed Markey, who has been in the U.S. Congress since 1976 and is a solid Democrat vote in the House, he voted straight party line for The Affordable Health Care Act (ObamaCare). (U.S.House) Stephen Lynch is the opposition Democrat candidate in the Primary, is also a U.S. Congressman, has been in the U.S. Congress since 2001, and his vote was against Obama Care. He is not, always, a reliable Democrat vote in the House, it depends upon the issue, and on this particular Issue, he voted against his Party. (U.S. House)

On the Republican Ticket, one has Gabriel Gomez, a young, former Democrat, who is in favor of repeal, believing the States should design their own programs.(Gomezforms.com). Gomez had written a letter to Governor Deval Patrick outlining his support for the President, and his policies, asking the Govenor to appoint him as an interim Senator. In the letter, he described himself a as moderate, and, as New England Cable News points out, he then suggested he also supported Republican John McCain in 20008.

Michael Sullivan, former U.S. Attorney and crime fighter, is a stalwart Republican, pro-life, Catholic, who was part of the Romney Administration in the State, he has no website for his campaign that appears in Bing or Google searches. In the Republican Debate, he suggested repeal of Obama Care – and does not support the Health Care Law as written (Gazette.net)

Lastly, there is the Libertarian leaning Dan Winslow , - Dan Winslow’s Issue Page, does not refer to the Health Care Act, rather, focuses on the Debt, Jobs, and Energy as the first three priorities. That said, In a recent debate, he is somewhat opposed to Obama Care, and emphasized state’s rights options, citing Massachusetts having an adequate program in place, and suggesting states that meet guidelines under the law, would be exempt from the law, including taxes Mass Live.

As far as the Health Care Act, its hyper-inflated bureaucracy, the fees’ for non-compliance, the increase in insurance premiums for private policies, and the obvious boost to the Insurance companies (one big DC lobby or two), the list goes on, appears to be a hodge podge of options that those that wrote the bill suggested, placing them willy-nilly in no specific order (having read this monstrosity, it is somewhat intelligible, but that’s about it – there are no true costs savings measures, rather additional debt, and the unformatted suggestions that with the cost of implementation, the taxes that are attached to cover specific programs, that there will still be 50 million uninsured in 10 years. In other words, the bill as written gives no assurances that there will be any net positive changes to U.S. Health Care delivery.

But what does Obama Care, Abortion, the Defense of Marriage Act, really have to do with someone running for Senate, other than give the public who may or most likely will not vote in the primary (but will vote in the general election), an idea of how that individual might vote if, and this is a big if, that issue ever was brought to the Senate Floor. With the abortion issue, one knows that it is stated law, and has been decided in the Supreme Court. With the Defense of Marriage Act (or the current, case before the Supreme Court on striking down the Law (which defines marriage as between one-man and one woman), again, it is a Supreme Court issue, and not an issue that will be address in any Federal office (unless of course, someone is running (either party) and needs to use it as a way to strike fear into the hearts of those pro and con in order to get votes.

What the next U.S. Senator will be is either a “party stamp” or someone who thinks for themselves and will vote as they feel the people they represent will best benefit. The only two that strike a chord at this point for this blogger are Stephen Lynch and Dan Winslow. The defense is made by Winslow, who is from Western Massachusetts (not a reason to vote for anyone), but his ability to annoy both major parties, with his Libertarian views.

Lynch would be a second choice, as he is not a straight party vote, but..he is party identified.

What we have here is a somewhat new phenomenon of Liberation-Republican’s, who strict Constitutionalist and are big of personal liberty. They are anti-war, unless of course, to defend, and they are pro-individual and states’ rights, they are above all, fiscally conservative, while being less than enthusiastic about social issues.

On Social Issues: Although this blogger is pro-life (no abortion- no death penalty), and sees no purpose in changing the meaning of marriage as it now stands (given that it is, for the most part a religious term), rather would see legal partnerships that would allow for all “couples” be they strait, gay, or otherwise, allowed to care for one another, with benefits associated, across the board. Those wanting to have a religious aspect or Marriage would do so by going to their church or synagogue or mosque.

Simple!

On abortion; as the Supreme Court is about to decide on the issue of Gay Marriage in two cases, one brought to strike down a California proposition banning Gay Marriage and one that cites DOMA as Unconstitutional, a ruling in June is anticipated. As no one knows how the justices will finally rule, one understand that all justices, those liberal those conservative on the court, are not thrilled to be voting on this issue, and many have indicated through oral arguments that this belongs to the states. Should they decide to rule it a State issue, that will have a bearing on those who would attempt to change Abortion, bringing it back to the court, and with the precedent set (should that be the course) that Gay Marriage is a state issues, why not abortion? This is of course hypothetical now as no one knows the minds of the justices, but both those battles will be fought in the courts.

Leaving Candidates to claim they are anti-or pro on social issues, that they have little or no say over.

One might think in this election therefore, one should be concerned more with their pocketbook, and in that wise, the fiscal conservative, Winslow, will go the distance to protect the rights of the taxpayer.

Note: Although this will be a little watched, and low voter turn-out primary, with an anticipated low-voter turnout special election, it will be decided by those who are more politically minded, and in as this is Massachusetts, those who declare no party.

Massachusetts Special Senate Election Update – Gomez, Sullivan, Winslow – first debate. Gomez Releases Letter to Governor – All Hades Breaks Loose

Mass Special Election GOP Candidates during Debate - image Boston Globe

The Massachusetts Special Election primary to fill the vacant U.S. Senate seat (John Kerry), will take place this April, with both major political parties offering choices of 2 to 3 candidates in a closed primary. One is only able to vote in the primary if one is unenrolled and declares a party, or one is registered as either a Republican or Democrat. The Democrats have offered up two U.S. Congressmen, Ed Markey and Stephen Lynch. While the Republican race offers three; Dan Winslow, (State Representative), Michael Sullivan (former U.S. Attorney) and Gabriel Gomez (political neophyte). The three Republican’s met in a debate on Tuesday where the issues of the day were discussed, along with trivial, humanizing questions such as a favorite junk food. (NECN - video)

During the debate, the subject of a letter written by Gomez to Governor Deval Patrick, asking the Governor to consider Gomez for an interim replacement to fill the Senate seat until the election took place, has apparently become somewhat of a sticking point. Gomez vowed to release the letter to the public during the debate (Boston Herald). The contents of the letter were summarily touted by the by the Boston Globe as Gomez reaching across the aisle They also included a handy PDF which can be downloaded and shared here.

In the letter, Gomez informs the Governor that he is a “moderate” Republican, one who supported Barack Obama in 2008, and also is supportive of the Presidents Gun Ban as well as his Immigration Reform policies. In a nutshell, while on the campaign trail, it appears that Gomez, is much like Kerry in his ability to “flip-flop” on issues, as noted in several GOP activist emails flying through cyberspace (with the PDF attached.)

Understanding that the actual Massachusetts GOP is diverse, made up of those moderates, those country club Republican’s, those Libertarian, those Right-wing Conservatives and yes, Tea Party Members, one might have burned that letter and taken back all copies before releasing it prior to a primary.

On the flip side, Gomez, a father of four, may have had a reaction to the sudden screaming for Banning Guns by those who legally own them (i.e. the 2nd Amendment), or he may have been attempting to jump ahead of the curve, by sounding like a progressive Democrat (i.e. extreme moderate), in order to stand a chance of getting into a position without the need for a primary. The previous is, of course, sheer speculation.

In any event, the race, as it stands, appears to be exciting the national media, and of course, the state media, as Lynch and Markey are about as exciting as watching paint dry. One might want to take early bets on either Winslow or Sullivan to pull out of this primary, to face either (most likely) Markey or Lynch in what will be the most boring election in Massachusetts history. Gomez, at least garnered some excitement, given his youth and compelling story, and may have given either of the two Bay State Congressmen a run for their money, however, that may be less likely at this point.

With approximately a month before the primary, the situation may change, and Gomez may be “forgiven” his stance on gun control. However, one must remember, in the land of Smith & Wesson, in a state that is seeing an increase in a call for new gun permits, and a lack of supplies at area gun shops, it may have behooved the political newcomer to choose another topic in an attempt to ingratiate himself with the Governor.

Mass. GOP Senate Primary - Gabriel Gomez Receives National Press, Local Right-Wing Rants on Social Issues – The Perfect Candidate?

The MA Senate GOP Primary Candidates: Gomez, Sullivan, Winslow - image from Springfield Republican, MassLive

Massachusetts needs to fill the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by John Kerry’s appointment as Secretary of State, a primary set for April 30th, with a general election June 25th, sees, what is referred to as a “crowded field” of Republican’s. The State GOP, aiming to be more grassroots, held a straw-poll at a nearby yacht club, which saw Dan Winslow, a State Representative, win the nod, followed by Gabriel Gomez, and in third, former U.S. Attorney (noted as: former George W. Bush official in referenced article). (The Hill Blog) Of course, straw polls, being what they are, are hardly indicative (i.e. Ron Paul, Michelle Bachmann) of what may or may not take place in an actual GOP primary in the State of Massachusetts.

What has piqued this bloggers interest in this particular candidate are several items that have stood out over the past few weeks. First, the candidate himself: Gomez is a first generation American, Hispanic, a former Navy Seal, a businessman in Boston, and he is not a professional Politician (the only one if the field of 5 (combined Democrat and Republicans) in the mix). Secondly, the national media has picked up on Gomez, from the San Francisco Chronicle mentioned in notes on candidates yesterday, and now the Weekly Standard, a conservative publication who was one of the first to push for Scott Brown’s run is highlighting Gomez in multiple articles, including one comparing him to Scott Brown. Gomez is not a Scott Brown, as Brown had been involved in the MA State Senate, and Gomez, has not held an elected office. Further, his positions on social issues are, in a word, sane – He is personally pro-life, but is letting sleeping dogs lie with Roe vs. Wade, and he is not jumping on board the Anti-Gay Marriage platform. This has the rightwing in MA going someone ballistic, at Red Mass Group. Apparently, Gomez is smart enough to know that his position on either of these issues is a moot point, and if he should he change his position to fit that of the fringe- it is the kiss of death in MA politics, and most likely anywhere else in the Northeast. The Problem with values or issues based drum-bangers' is that they muddy the water – the fact is that a U.S. Senator will have no say in the fact that Massachusetts Law supports Gay Marriage, and will also have no say in overturning Roe vs. Wade. Those who use these issues, on both sides of the body politic, are doing so for personal gain only- and have no intention of solving the “problem” – evidence: Roe Vs. Wade was decided in 1973 (Cornell). Since that decision allowing abortions in all 50 states (prior to that it was a State Issue – whereby some states allowed, while others did not) the White House has been graced by both Republicans (notably, Reagan, Bush and Bush) and Democrats (Carter, Clinton, Obama), the House and Senate have changed party hands several times, and on more than one occasion, the Republicans had total control, so did the Democrats – yet – nothing changed, even under the optimum conditions for change to occur. Therefore this issue, and the Gay Marriage Issue, are personal choices, dictated by laws, which the value voter cannot (unless there is a shift towards a theocracy and that is not going to happen), cannot solve.

There is, of course, more criticism, but that is the way with primaries, example: Markey and Lynch, running on the Democrat Ticket are taking a few pot shots. (Or their supporters are which is more to the point.)

Gomez is not shy about reaching out to the growing Hispanic population in Massachusetts – who, as noted in the Weekly Standard piece, overwhelmingly voted for Elizabeth Warren over Scott Brown in the general election – 4 to 1. Although hi bi-lingual ability somehow irked the Boston Globe who’s opinion piece suggested that the tactic of using one’s ability to speak in Spanish, is somehow politically divisive! (Boston Globe – Americans Speak Every Language But only English Unites)

What this tells the casual observer is that the GOP has attracted a talented, patriotic conservative who is also from one of the much coveted voting blocs that is normally thought of as “belonging to the Democrat Party”, and, like Rubio, or Cruz, has given the GOP the nod over the DNC – beginning to dispel the myth that the Republican Party only attracts angry old white men. (Look at DNC Leadership and RNC Leadership – and note if there are any differences). He has irked the left, which has caused a position change to English only, he has irritated the rightwing, and he is getting national attention, which will translate into campaign funds. He is personable, he hit the ground running, and he appears to be able to go the distance. If, and the big if, the primary attracts independents that will switch affiliation and care enough to vote in the primary.

In a State that is dominated by Democrats, with a serious ground game (trolling for votes in nursing homes, and having polling stations conveniently parked at Senior Centers, with a 13 hour time frame to pull out an extra 30,000 voters), it is the candidate that can overcome the 36% Democrat Base, and the 10% of Independents that lean Democrat, to pull off a special election. The candidate that wins the GOP Primary must face that machine. As of now, it is difficult to say if this is even possible – Unless there is a candidate who is receiving national attention in a big way, brining in not only cash but ground support in order to get the message across, and not cave in to the right or the left of Massachusetts politics, but stand steady in the middle. If anyone truly believes that Pro-Life - Winslow, or U.S. Attorney under George W. Bush, Michael Sullivan can pull off a general after winning a primary, then they are, in this opinion, sadly mistaken. Granted, Gomez is untested, however, that adds, not detracts from his chances in a climate that is still anti-Bush – and growing more anti-Government by the day.

If the later does not occur, one can count on Markey or Lynch going to the Senate. (And in that Scenario, if one is a Democrat (not a Progressive) one might want to consider voting for Lynch. (Lynch is running as a populist, man of the people, and middle class, union guy – versus Markey who has been endorsed by Barney Frank.) Side note from historical perspective: Although Gomez identifies himself as a “New Republican” – he is actually a pre-1960’s Republican, the party of choice for Dr. Martin Luther King, and others who understood that those who initialized Emancipation were not Democrats.

Massachusetts Special Senate Election – Five Candidates in Primary for Open Senate Seat – Primary Date: April 30th, 2013 – Election: Tuesday, June 25th

Gabriel Gomez, running for U.S. Senate in MA - photo from SF Gate with article and Photo slide show GOP Senate Hopeful Gomez takes to campaign trail



The Commonwealth of Massachusetts will hold a special election to replace former Senator John Kerry on June 25, 2013. There are five candidates that have submitted signatures for the ballot, three Republicans, Gabriel Gomez, Michael Sullivan and Daniel Winslow, and two Democrats, Congressman Ed Markey and Congressman Stephen Lynch. Should either of the Democrat contenders win the Special Election, the event will trigger another special election to replace a U.S. Congressional Representative.

The primary will be held on the 30th of April with the winners of the respective political parties competing in the election on Tuesday, June 25th. The last date to register to vote in this election is June 5th, according to the Massachusetts Secretary of State’s website.

The Candidates in Brief:

Gabriel Gomez, first generation American, former Navy Seal and businessman – non-politician: Website: www.gomezforma.com

Michael Sullivan, former U.S. Attorney.(Boston.com) – No Website

Daniel Winslow, a Massachusetts State Representative, (view State Profile). – Website: www.danwinslow.com

Stephen Lynch, U.S. Congressman, serving in the Congress since 2001, prior to that he was a State Representative. Voting record in Congress Available at: govtrack.us Campaign Website: www.stephenlynch.com

Ed Markey, U.S. Congressman, serving since 1975. Voting record is available at www.govtrack.us. Campaign website: www.edmarkey.com

News and notes:

wwlp, Springfield, on the candidates expected to make the ballot. (Note: Gabriel Gomez had, up to officially announcing his candidacy, had not spoken to the general media).

However, that has not prevented Gomez to be spotlighted outside of Massachusetts: See: GOP Senate Hopeful Gomez Takes to Campaign Trail" (San Francisco Chronicle)

Ed Markey, according to Facebook ads, is endorsed by Barney Frank.

The Huffington Post on Stephen Lynch and his connection to labor, possibly spoiling Markey’s chances in a primary.

It is anticipated that there will be a low turnout for the primary as well as the Special election.

Of the two parties, preferred matchup would be Gomez, due to his issues, smart press releases, and the fact that the day he announced his candidacy he visited the three key areas of MA. In addition, he’s not an entrenched politician, current politician or former politico, someone with fresh perspective. Plus: his compelling narrative as a first generation of Hispanic descent – and Stephen Lynch, serving less time in the U.S. Congress than Markey, Lynch appears to be more in-touch with Massachusetts (see his narrative on website), and has not made a full-time career (yet) out of government compared to Markey (1975 to present in the U.S. House).

MA Special Senate Election – Markey has nod from DNC, but Keep Eye on Lynch – MA GOP – Gomez Appears Capable, Sullivan Not Yet Announced – All Candidates Lack Name Recognition.

The MA Candidates (and potential candidates): Ed Markey(D), Stephen Lynch(D),Gabriel Gomez(R) and Michael Sullivan (R) - images: Markey and Lynch BostonGlobe, Gomez-Boston Herald and Sullivan, Patriot Ledger

The Massachusetts Special Election will take place on June 25th, with primaries held on the 30th of April, and a field that is generally unknown to the majority of Massachusetts voters. That may change, of course, depending on the following factors, Grassroots, airtime and the candidate’s ability to connect and generate turnout. The turnout is generally the big if in MA special elections - , and when a candidate does not, in a short time, connect with the electorate through grass roots organizing to pull ahead, the results of the race normally goes to the party machine that can pull together the votes, namely the Democrats in MA. Scott Brown in 2010 is the best example of a grass roots campaign that exploded and sent him to the Senate, despite the best efforts of the State DNC. The aforementioned tend to blame Martha Coakley, who ran as the opposition Democrat for the loss. However, although Coakley was not the most vibrant candidate, in Massachusetts, the D in front of one’s name in a low turnout election would seal the deal. Brown literally drove across the state and met with individuals, he connected at a time when disgust for Washington among the 50 plus percent of unenrolled Massachusetts voters was high.

In the bid to replace Kerry’s seat in Washington, a long-serving, but little known, Congressional Rep, may have a harder time against a non-politician, given the general distaste for the Congress, and Washington in General. The only candidate that has announced (pending 10,000 signatures due on the 27th of February – in order to qualify for the ballot – with an addition 5,000 for insurance should any of the signatures not meet requirements) that is not already serving in Congress or other official capacity is Gabriel Gomez. Gomez, a first generation Columbian American, is a former Navy Pilot and Navy Seal, who works for a Boston based investment firm and sounds more “unenrolled” than either Republican or Progressive or Democrat. That may be the ticket in getting those, generally uninterested, unenrolleds to vote in the primary and the special election.

Name recognition however, may be at issue. Although Gomez is garnering national and local media attention prior to the submission of required signatures, the only other candidates to do so are Ed Markey, and Stephen Lynch, two Democrats that have graced Congress for Decades, but known only in their own districts, one out of 9 left in the State of Massachusetts.

Former Republican Attorney General Michael Sullivan is also considering a run for the Senate, pending signatures, again, a candidate that has served at the State and Federal Level, but, not in Congress, which regardless of whether one is a Democrat or Republican in that body, generally not a peoples favorite at this point.

Gomez is garnering a considerable amount of media attention for two reasons, one he is a Hispanic running for Senate in Massachusetts, and second he is a Republican Hispanic running for Senate in Massachusetts.

Given the fact that the make-up of the Commonwealth, demographically, is, according to the U.S. Census below the national average when it comes to “minorities” – with 81% Caucasian, 7.8% African American’s and 9.9% Hispanic, with 7.7% of those surveyed in 2010-2011 considering themselves White/Hispanic. With Gomez already actively courting the Hispanic vote in the Bay State, he may have the edge, again, especially during low-turn-out.

On this bloggers preferences, Lynch on the Democrat side appears to be the one who at least bucks his party once in a blue-moon (See Voting Record at project votesmart.org). He has also spent less time in Congress, compared to his opposition, Ed Markey. Markey is a “rubber-stamp” party voter who has graced the Halls of Congress since 1976. (Project vote smart) – In other words, part of the problem in Washington is the deeply entrenched, long-serving politicians, who are more interested in the power of the position than in serving the public.

On the Republican side, Gomez is the most interesting of the candidates, no prior government experience, and someone who believes in the ability to change the government, making it part of the solution, not the problem.

All candidates will have the problem of getting their name out to those voters who are a) low-information (do not watch the news, read a paper, or otherwise care), and grab a piece of the pie that’s left. The Democrat who makes it through the primary will have the advantage of a higher Democrat identified voter count (approximately 36%); The Republican will have the 11% Republican identifiers, and will need to garner the balance from the unenrolleds, and Democrats who may not be enamored of the party candidate. It can be done, it’s been done before, by someone who quickly identified with the individual, criss-crossing the state, and making an impression that far outweighed the money spent on television advertising, which, one can be sure, is necessary in this electronic age. The media will, it is assumed pre-nominate the individual with the longest serving record in Washington due to “experience”.

Andy Card Endorses MA Senator Brown – Brown announcement Saturday at 2:00 P.M. – Obama Presses Hard for MA Senate Replacement - Fear & Loathing in D.C

Scott Brown, to Make Announcment Re: MA U.S. Senate Race Today at 2 PM - photo: Facebook

Former White House Chief of Staff, Andy Card, formally endorsed State Senator Scott Brown (R), yesterday while announcing his decision not to run for the U.S. Senate Seat made vacant due to Ted Kennedy’s passing. Card stated: “Now is not the right time for me to enter a political race.
In these critical times, I know that Massachusetts would be well served to have Senator Scott Brown as the Commonwealth's next United States Senator. He has my full support."

Following Card’s decision and endorsement, Brown indicated that he would be making an announcement today at 2:00 p.m. from the Statehouse. Brown would join Republican Bob Burr, a Canton Selectman, and Democrat Martha Coakley, the Attorney General of the Commonwealth, as the third to formally announce a candidacy for this Senate Seat. Several Democrats who were considered to be possible successors to Kennedy have bowed out of the race; U.S. Representative Ed Markey, (D-MA) and more importantly, Joe Kennedy who was seen by local media as key to the tone of the race (Kennedy Dynasty)

Others who are either considering or whose names have been bandied about in the press include: Former Baseball Player Curt Shilling, who would run as an Independent, Progressive Democrat, John Tierney, Republican Michael Sullivan, former U.S. Attorney, currently working with John Ashcroft’s firm, Stephen Lynch Democrat , U.S. Congress, MA 9th District Michael Capuano, Democrat, U.S. CongressMassachusetts 8th Congressional District and The Boston Globe’s personal favorite Kennedy’s widow, Vicki Kennedy, who has already indicated she would not want an appointment, but has not yet issued a formal statement one way or the other on running for the seat.

As of this moment, Coakley enjoys strong support from within her own party, while Brown, who is more “populist” in nature, appears to enjoy local party support, and grassroots support that covers the entire Bay State and includes both Independents and Moderate Democrats. Depending upon the number of Democrats who enter the race, infighting may weaken any candidate running up to the primary to be held on December 9th; although Coakley is said to have sufficient contributions to continue through with the campaign. The same might be said on the Republican side with Brown appearing to have the most grassroots support (critical in any race), and the ability to raise funds (see grassroots), the Republican field is already narrow, and given that a primary among those who have announced would produce Brown as the candidate, should the State GOP give its blessing, the National Committee would follow suit adding considerably to Brown’s war chest. Brown would then be in the unique position to become the Commonwealth’s first U.S. Republican Senator since Edward Brook, (served from 1967 to 1979).

Pundits who are consistently bent on calling Massachusetts the Bluest State, should consider the fact that the population has changed (considerable drop in population leading to the loss of a Congressional Seat), the predominant political designation (and growing) is “unenrolled” or independent (Republican Governor’s are mainstream in Massachusetts), and the current political climate does not favor one party over the other.

They key factor in Brown’s Senate Race will be national support (from individuals, pacs and the GOP) With Barack Obamapushing for an “interim replacement” in the Bay state (directly), one understands that the climate has truly changed. If the Democrats, from the top down, we’re confident that a Democrat could take Kennedy’s Seat in the January Special Election, there would be no reason to install a name brand (enter Vicki Kennedy), replacement who, the President (and his advisors) erroneously believe, would be better positioned to best a Republican in the special election. As of now, it is speculated that the Democrats intend to push the Health Care Reform bill through the legislative process using the nuclear option (should they have enough support within their own ranks). With that in mind, a replacement for Kennedy, at this juncture, is moot, therefore, it is not only possible, but probable, that a savvy, competent, well-liked and well-funded, Scott Brown will be the next Republican U.S. Senator from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.