Gallup 2012 Voter Preference Survey - Obama 5 Point Deficit against Any Republican Candidate – Historical Analysis and Trends suggest GOP Win

This week’s Gallup’s ongoing Voter’s Preference Survey shows the President with a 5 point deficit against any Republican running in 2012, and although the poll has a certain level of statistical uncertainty, (95% confidence that the margin of error is plus/minus 4%), (Gallup poll data here) it has held fairly steady over the past 5 months, with one exception, the percentage of those with no opinion has remained approximately 12 percent, with those preferring a third party or “other” candidate steady at 6%. (See PDF Available in Gallup Article). The pollsters meld those two (undecided/other) giving an impression that 18% remain uncommitted. The pollster is puzzled that 26% of independents show no preference (but does not break out prefer third party/undecided’s), and compares the June results to those of former President’s Bush (both Jr. and Sr.), which is an interesting choice given that the economy at its current state would be most aptly compared to Carter’s 1979 rankings.


Carter in the same months in 1979, had historically low job approval ratings, specifically on the economy and foreign policy, with economy driving the decline due to inflation Daytona Beach Sunday News Journal, NYTimes/CBS Poll

Therefore, should inflation become a factor, coupled with rising gas prices, and the potential for gas shortages, one could expect the President’s 1 point deficit, to become slightly lower against any Republican. That said, given the fact that Obama and his administration have approximately a year to pull a rabbit out of a hat, and right the economy to at the least a trend towards George Bush Levels (unemployment rate at 4.5% in the same time period of 2007, by October of 2008, that rate had risen to 6.8% . (See Housing Bubble) Should the Obama administration bring the unemployment rate in line to 2008 levels, matching former President’s Bush’s worst – the word miracle comes to mind.

However, creating private sector jobs may not be out of the question should the Presidents close association with members of Wall Street, who have played key roles in his election. At the moment, that appears unlikely as his recent quest to recruit the same Wall Street donors who helped propel him to the presidency, was met with resistance (see Obama Gets Snubbed by Wall Street).

Should inflation meet unemployment then the lead for the Generic “Republican” over Obama will widen, and although it is highly unlikely that Obama would face a strong challenge from within his own party (See Kennedy/Carter and most interesting Ford/Reagan Gallup Data in 1978 (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) as his job approval ratings would prevent anyone from mounting a serious challenge (they are not in the 30’s), it is very likely that until all GOP Candidates are declared and the primaries begin South Carolina, a front runner will actually emerge, other than through polls, which, as shown are subject to change.

Therefore, it is hoped that Obama has something up his sleeve in order to right the economy, so that the American public can hope to realize relief from the “non-existent inflation”, high prices at the pump and a general trend towards a misery index, however, historical economic data suggests that a minimum of two years would be necessary to put the economy on a true sustainable recovery with citizens enjoying at the least an improvement in personal economics, specifically those in the “so called” middle class (or what is otherwise known as “Tax Payers” working in the private sector).

Additionally, should a third party candidate emerge, such as happened in 1980 with the three way race between Carter, Reagan and Independent Candidate Anderson, the results might be similar to the Gallup data shown for June (see “other” preference at 6%). In that election Regean had a 9 point lead over Carter, with the Independent Anderson taking 6% of the vote. Although Carter’s approval in the previous year was in the high 30’s, it sank due to the final years melding of continued high unemployment, gas shortages and the staggering rise in inflation. One might suggest that Carter’s poor job performance vis a vis foreign policy played a part, but it was again, the economy that dominated.

Other data to consider: In 2008 Obama bested John McCain by 7.1%, , in the democrat primary, Obama bested Hillary Clinton, not in the primary states, (where she won the popular vote) but in the caucus states where he had a slight better return, giving him 41.8% of the delegates to Clinton’s 39.4% this would have resulted in a delegate vote, however, the use of Super Delegates was employed by the Democrat Party, which gave Obama the nod as the new Party standard bearer

As the economy has driven the winner or loser in almost every election held in the prior century and the current, it is doubtful that this situation will change. As the front runner or front runners emerge from the Republican field, and should the economic data remain the same, it would be a close election, the outcome of which would most probably go to the yet unnamed Republican. Should the situation worsen and inflation factor into the equation in the upcoming months, then one can anticipate a Reagan type lead over the incumbent.

Gallup Highlights Tea Party Importance – The Tea Party Comparison To 60’s Political Revolution

The Tea Party Patriot - image sumo tv

Politico’sJennfier Epstein, picked up on Gallup’s Tea Party poll – The question posed: Should the GOP Consider Tea Party Ideas with the result, a resounding, cross party lines, yes. It is not so much, as Epstein pointed out, that Gallup specified what the ideals of the Tea Party included, rather “leaving respondents to decide for themselves.” - while she included the following definition: “The movement draws on populist sentiments and pushes an agenda focused on reducing taxes, government spending and the national debt.” (Politico)

Gallup released the poll on Monday paired the national opinion of the Republican versus the Tea Party, with the end result that the Republican Party scored slightly higher on favorability at 47% overall, with the Tea Party garnering 39% approval. The poll included Democrats, Republicans and non-affiliated respondents, and implies that the Republican-Tea Party Movement are aligned, or in completion with one another, rather than the reality that the Tea Party Movement is a separate entity with some similar views held by established Republicans.

What would be more useful: a poll comparing the favorability of the Tea Party compared and contrasted with the both the Republican and Democrat Party. It goes without saying that Tea Party Members ran as Republican’s, gaining seats in historical proportions in the House of Representatives in this past election. Savvy politicos understand that running as an Independent and/or Libertarian, (which is the Tea Party make-up) would be akin to spitting in the wind at this point, given the fact that the Tea Party has yet to structure itself as a national political party. Therefore, running “as a Republican” would allow a brand of sorts, and an ideology which would not be anathema to the core beliefs of the fiscally conservative, constitutional based Tea Party. It is akin to the “Blue Dog” moderate conservative Democrats who ran in 2008 and joined the ranks of the majority Democrats. The difference lay in the lack of a cohesive movement on the part of the Blue Dogs, which, the end result was a partisan paring of those Blue Dogs with the rank and file Democrats. The Tea Party members of Congress, however, are not necessarily ready to run in lockstep with Party Leadership – they have a mandate that is not by political party rather by a revolution of sorts that includes all Americans.

The Tea Party Revolution:

An op-ed piece in the Hampshire Gazette, a newspaper with roots in the Pioneer Valley of Massachusetts, and the city of Northampton, which, one would think, would be the very bastion of progressive thought. Massachusetts after all, was one of the few States in the Union that did not follow the rest of the nation in 2010 and elect either Republican’s or Tea Party members to Congress and/or higher State offices. It is not so much that those Tea Party members or Republican’s were not on the ballot, they were, in droves, it was the fact that Massachusetts Republican’s and Tea Party Members alike did not have the political operation in force that was necessary to put one over the top – one has to understand, (even with redistricting about to take place, due to the loss of one Congressional Seat), that those who did run, came within points of toppling Democrat incumbents who had been entrenched for decades. That fact alone, coupled with a lack of experience and political intelligence, should have those in the Bay State and elsewhere on notice – the movement has legs.

The Gazette Article written by Dr. Jay Fleitman (a 2010 Republican Candidate for the MA2 Congressional District), discussed the Tea Party in real Massachusetts terms. Massachusetts one must understand has a long history of producing “radicals” who go on to provoke “political uprisings” and over the long haul, “change the political landscape”. Dr. Fleitman does justice to the Tea Party, noting where the various groups are (everywhere in Massachusetts), and draws from his personal campaign experience to paint a valid picture of the Tea Party Movement. Beyond Tea Party caricatures is a must read for those who would look to further understanding the “movement”. For that is what the Tea Party really is – a movement with political consequences. Dr. Fleitman in his closing, speaks to the American “revolution” of the 1960’s and the change effected by that movement, and does, for the first time, place that moniker on the Tea Party movement – a movement that is political in nature and has, to date, already affected change in the political landscape, and with continued growth, will continue to do so over the next decades.


Abbie Hoffman, wrapped in the U.S. Flag - image Bapfn.org

In closing, Dr. Jay has a point, and the fact that economics have driven most Revolutions from the original Boston “Tea Party” (a taxing revolution that led to a new nation), to the rejection of economics by the 1960’s hippies (Abby Hoffman, a Worcester Native, wrote the tome: “Steal This Book” – available on Amazon.com on Amazon.comwhich defined the anti-establishment movement that shaped the ideology and minds of those who now sit in the Halls of Congress. As the Tea Party continues to move forward, one must agree with Dr. Jay Fleitman assessment, those of us who witnessed the “revolution of the 1960’s, are indeed fortunate to witness a second political revolution in our lifetime - That of the Tea Party.
It is not without some caution one must view the hyperbole against the Tea Party considering it is often derided by the left, the right, and the press.

As America Turns – Polls Suggest The Political Pendulum Swings in Favor of Conservatism in Government - Reid, Dodd, Boxer - Out - Analysis

Several polls released over the past two months suggest that, against all odds (as purported by the media, pundits and the current political party in charge), there will be a change or elimination of Party control over one or both houses of Congress in 2010. The polling to date, which is reminiscent of polls taken in 2005-2006 and again in 2007-2008, shows either a total or growing lack of support for an incumbent – which is not historically unusual when one political party controls all branches of government.

High profile Democrats who are most likely to be replaced in 2010 include:
Barbara Boxer (Senate: D-CA) who is holding onto a narrow margin against a yet-undeclared, Carly Fiorina. Fiorina, former Hewlett Packard CEO, is currently polling at 41% to Boxers 45% (Rasmussen, an increase over a previous poll taken in March (Boxer 47%/Fiorina 38%).

Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader, (D-NV), is most likely to be replaced by Republican Sue Lowden, who is polling ahead of Reid by 6 points (and has yet to formally enter the race). Reid’s popularity with Nevada voters is low - 45% of voters polled would replace him.

The list from Real Clear Politics (a compilation and average of several pollsters per candidate) is telling:

Chris Dodd (Senate: D-CT), is trailing Republican Rob Simmons by 1 to 9 points (Quinnipiac), the only discrepancy is a Daily Koss Poll which gives Dodd 5 points over Simmons.

Christ handily bests Democrat Kendrick Meek in Florida’s Senate Race by 18 to 31 points.

In Illinois, Mark Kirk, Republican, is besting incumbent Burris for the Senate by 34 points, the Daily Koss poll suggests that Burris is besting Kirk by 7 points (a pattern is developing here).

In Pennsylvania, Toomey (Republican) bests Specter (former Republican turned Democrat) by 12 points (Koss has Specter beating Toomey by 5 points).

Of interest, general polling regarding current issues also suggests a turn towards conservatism:
Regarding the proposed Health Care Reform 54 % of American’s feel passing no reform would be better than the current congressional plan., and a new Gallup Poll suggests that American’s view themselves more as conservatives in all 50 states.

Some may suggest that this trend towards Republicans and Conservatism in general has been brought about by the current administrations programs, which run left of center, which may, in part, be true. That said, with the thirst for change constant in most American’s minds, those who don’t eat, breathe and live for politics (the majority) may be viewing the political arena in terms of a reality television show. As the personalities of politician’s morphed into “Star Status”, the opportunity for the general public to become disenfranchised rose proportionately. Once the charisma of any given personality loses its luster, the public turns to the next “contestant”, literally voting the “star” (incumbent) off the island. Although some progressives in education assert that control of the masses (and control of the votes), by dumbing down America, would ensure a change in government; the miscalculation of the appeal of quick changes and celebrity fascination with quick dismissal, never entered into the equation. More to the point, the American Independent Voter, once again, believed a political campaign promises (or slew of promises), and as these promises evaporated, or have not taken place at lightning speed (which would be impossible); they have shifted focus to the opposing party.