Gallup 2012 Voter Preference Survey - Obama 5 Point Deficit against Any Republican Candidate – Historical Analysis and Trends suggest GOP Win

This week’s Gallup’s ongoing Voter’s Preference Survey shows the President with a 5 point deficit against any Republican running in 2012, and although the poll has a certain level of statistical uncertainty, (95% confidence that the margin of error is plus/minus 4%), (Gallup poll data here) it has held fairly steady over the past 5 months, with one exception, the percentage of those with no opinion has remained approximately 12 percent, with those preferring a third party or “other” candidate steady at 6%. (See PDF Available in Gallup Article). The pollsters meld those two (undecided/other) giving an impression that 18% remain uncommitted. The pollster is puzzled that 26% of independents show no preference (but does not break out prefer third party/undecided’s), and compares the June results to those of former President’s Bush (both Jr. and Sr.), which is an interesting choice given that the economy at its current state would be most aptly compared to Carter’s 1979 rankings.


Carter in the same months in 1979, had historically low job approval ratings, specifically on the economy and foreign policy, with economy driving the decline due to inflation Daytona Beach Sunday News Journal, NYTimes/CBS Poll

Therefore, should inflation become a factor, coupled with rising gas prices, and the potential for gas shortages, one could expect the President’s 1 point deficit, to become slightly lower against any Republican. That said, given the fact that Obama and his administration have approximately a year to pull a rabbit out of a hat, and right the economy to at the least a trend towards George Bush Levels (unemployment rate at 4.5% in the same time period of 2007, by October of 2008, that rate had risen to 6.8% . (See Housing Bubble) Should the Obama administration bring the unemployment rate in line to 2008 levels, matching former President’s Bush’s worst – the word miracle comes to mind.

However, creating private sector jobs may not be out of the question should the Presidents close association with members of Wall Street, who have played key roles in his election. At the moment, that appears unlikely as his recent quest to recruit the same Wall Street donors who helped propel him to the presidency, was met with resistance (see Obama Gets Snubbed by Wall Street).

Should inflation meet unemployment then the lead for the Generic “Republican” over Obama will widen, and although it is highly unlikely that Obama would face a strong challenge from within his own party (See Kennedy/Carter and most interesting Ford/Reagan Gallup Data in 1978 (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) as his job approval ratings would prevent anyone from mounting a serious challenge (they are not in the 30’s), it is very likely that until all GOP Candidates are declared and the primaries begin South Carolina, a front runner will actually emerge, other than through polls, which, as shown are subject to change.

Therefore, it is hoped that Obama has something up his sleeve in order to right the economy, so that the American public can hope to realize relief from the “non-existent inflation”, high prices at the pump and a general trend towards a misery index, however, historical economic data suggests that a minimum of two years would be necessary to put the economy on a true sustainable recovery with citizens enjoying at the least an improvement in personal economics, specifically those in the “so called” middle class (or what is otherwise known as “Tax Payers” working in the private sector).

Additionally, should a third party candidate emerge, such as happened in 1980 with the three way race between Carter, Reagan and Independent Candidate Anderson, the results might be similar to the Gallup data shown for June (see “other” preference at 6%). In that election Regean had a 9 point lead over Carter, with the Independent Anderson taking 6% of the vote. Although Carter’s approval in the previous year was in the high 30’s, it sank due to the final years melding of continued high unemployment, gas shortages and the staggering rise in inflation. One might suggest that Carter’s poor job performance vis a vis foreign policy played a part, but it was again, the economy that dominated.

Other data to consider: In 2008 Obama bested John McCain by 7.1%, , in the democrat primary, Obama bested Hillary Clinton, not in the primary states, (where she won the popular vote) but in the caucus states where he had a slight better return, giving him 41.8% of the delegates to Clinton’s 39.4% this would have resulted in a delegate vote, however, the use of Super Delegates was employed by the Democrat Party, which gave Obama the nod as the new Party standard bearer

As the economy has driven the winner or loser in almost every election held in the prior century and the current, it is doubtful that this situation will change. As the front runner or front runners emerge from the Republican field, and should the economic data remain the same, it would be a close election, the outcome of which would most probably go to the yet unnamed Republican. Should the situation worsen and inflation factor into the equation in the upcoming months, then one can anticipate a Reagan type lead over the incumbent.