Monday, April 26, 2010

Latest Polls – Senate 2010 – No “Safe Democrats”


At Risk: Harry Reid and the Democrat Majority image: Cleveland.com


From Real Clear Politics: The latest 2010 Senate Polls show the following results, according to Real Clear Politics:

Toss-ups: California: Boxer (D), Colorado: Bennet (D),Illinois: Open (D), Missouri: Open (R), Ohio: Open (R)
Lean Republican: Arkansas: Lincoln (D), Florida: Open (R), Indiana: Open (D), Nevada: Reid (D), New Hampshire: Open (R), North Carolina: Burr (R), Pennsylvania: Specter (D)
Lean Democrat: Washington: Murray (D), Wisconsin: Feingold (D)
Likely Republican: Delaware: Open (D), Kentucky: Open (R), Louisiana: Vitter (R)
Likely Democrat: Connecticut: Open (D), New York: Gillibrand (D), Oregon: Wyden (D)
Safe Republican: North Dakota: Open (D)

Real Clear Politics, in computing results, averages polls taken from a variety of sources for each race, therefore, polls leaning left such as the Daily Kos, are combined with so-called conservative pollsters, such as Rasmussen to allow, giving the result. In the case of California Senator Boxer: Daily Koss has her up by 9 points, while Rasmussen has her up by 4, Public Policy Institute and Field both have Box plus 1, giving her an average of plus 3.7 (or within the statistical margin of error) over Republican contender Carly Fiorina.

In the case of those that lean Republican, Senate Majority Leader, Harry Ried has consistently averaged down in double digits against both Republican primary contenders. In any case, whether the race is open Democrat or Republican, not one is listed as “Safe Democrat”.

With the current make up of the Senate, the Republican’s need to pick up 10 seats in order to take the majority – given the above scenario – 3 toss ups (Boxer, CA, Bennet, CO and Barak Obama’s Illinois Seat in play), Lean Republican, 4: Lincoln, AR, Reid, NV, and Specter, PA and Indiana (Bayh’s Retirement), Likely Republican: 1, Delaware, and Safe Republican, 1 North Dakota: brings the total possible pickups at this point to 9, or with 41 seats currently held by the Republican’s a total of 50 or a statistical Senate tie. Should one of those races that are now shown as Likely Democrat, such as Gillibrand’s, where, depending on the challenger, could end up in the Lean Republican column, the stage will be set for a change of power in the Senate. That said, with 7 months left before the general election, it is, in most of these races, far too early to take anything for granted. In September, when the summer recess is over, then the polls can be looked as more accurate, given the fact that those incumbents fighting for their seats will have had time to campaign on their home turf. Should that prove unsuccessful, in the wake of the overall discontent of the nation, the die will be cast.

What will be of more interest are the competitive house races across the nation, where controls of the purse strings (the Congress) are up for grabs. One pollster in particular to watch: Public Policy Polling which has a decent record.

2 comments:

Chuck said...

Things would really have to break to the GOP for them to retake the Senate but can anyone say California, Colorado, Illinois, and Wisconsin are in the bag for the Dems? As far as NY, I think Gillibrand very easily could be a repeat of Massachusetts. She is a nothing. A decent candidate giving the voters of NY an option and she's toast IMHO.

Tina Hemond said...

Hi Chuck, I'm in agreement - as far as saying anything is "in the bag" for any Democrat - it's a brand issue at this point - and as far as the "economic recovery" goes, with rising food and fuel costs, slow return of the job market and the continual passage of spending bills, even the summer recess won't be forgiving - it's going to be a hard sell as far as incumbents go. I'm waiting to see more polls on the House race, that’s going to get interesting - we need more balance - and that's a resounding theme - It's beyond a 1994 atmosphere.

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