Something New, Nothing Borrowed, Nothing Blue – Massachusetts Reacting 2014

For all the ills that are affecting our great nation, mainly due to incompetence of leadership in the administration, which is effectively perceived as the Political Party it represents, the final straw has broken. Take Massachusetts, the “bluest” state for example; there is a possibility and a better than average possibility that both the Governor’s Seat as well as two Congressional seats will see changes in a few weeks.

The first is the battle between Charlie Baker and Martha Coakely – Martha being a flawed candidate3 from the getgo has made the national stage again in Poltiico’s hit piece “Martha Chokeley”. Basically the article outlines the problems Martha has faced in the past and faces still, unless the dead vote, and there are mysterious voting boxes in certain districts that are friendly to non-english speaking voters, Martha will go down in proverbial flames. The Unenrolled (which describes this bloggers political affiliation as none) have had it.

This lack of enthusiasm and distrust of all things old (or holding office) is evidenced by a new poll (PDF Here) released by Emerson College/WGBH, not exactly conservative pollsters, regarding the 6th Congressional District. It is not so much that the Republican, Richard Tisei is that far ahead of the Democrat running, it is a draw given the margin of error. The stunning reveal in this poll is Obama’s approval rating: a 62.6% unfavorable opinion of the President exists in the 6thth Congressional district. Blow me over with a feather.

This is Massachusetts.

Over on the Cape, the incumbent Democrat, Keating is a tad on the squeezed side, according to the Boston Globe, John Chapman is handing him his hat – yes another Republican Pickup.

If one understands that the Cape is more conservative than say Lowell and the 6th district, one can well imagine that without some serious cheating going on, the Democrats will lose heavily in Massachusetts.

This is Massachusetts – where there is a point that the people rise up and say, enough – the news out of everywhere is so horrifying that event he level headed are starting to think that the end is near, especially those who are currently holding offices and have a (D) somewhere in their history.

If this is taking shape in Massachusetts, then imagine what is happening elsewhere?

Where less progressive heads prevail.

Brown 51% Coakley 46% - Margin +/- 2.8% - Latest Poll Released Sunday Night By Public Policy Polling

A poll releasedon January 17th, by Public Policy Polling has Brown Up by 5 points over Coakley, but still within the statistical margin of error, according to the pollste who noted a margin of error for the poll at plus/minus 2.8% - polling 1231 Massachusetts voters using an automated telephone polling methodology. The poll did not include a category for “other candidate” or for Libertarian candidate Joe Kennedy. Additionally, the pollster is known as trending “left” in their political stance, however, they correctly called both the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections, giving them credence. Polling, although a statistical science, is not without errors, specifically when the electoral makeup is not in line with the actual electoral makeup of the state, and questions posed are not either leading or not relevant to the race.

The Marginals: full marginals and cross tabs here

Voting: Brown: 51%, Coakley 46%, Undecided 4%

Favorable: Brown 56%, Coakley: 44%

Democrats 39%, Republicans 17%, Unenrolled 44%

Obama Approval: 44% approve, 43% disapprove, 13% unsure

Effective argument for election to Senate: Brown 56%, Coakley 41%

ACORN Stealing Election: 25% Yes, 38% no, 37% Unsure

Favorable Opinion of Democrats in Congress: 30%, Unfavorable: 55%, Unsure: 14%

Favorable Opinion of Republicans in Congress: 22%, Unfavorable; 63%, Unsure 15%

Brown: Liberal 4%, Conservative 58% Moderate 37%

Coakley: Liberal 64%, Conservative 4%, Moderate 32%

Political View: Liberal 23%, Conservative: 22%, Moderate: 54%

The pollster in calling a 5 point lead with a 2.8% margin of error a statistical tie included the following:

”Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.”

In reviewing the marginals, two (at least) anomalies are in place: first, the electoral makeup: Massachusetts electorate (based on 2008 statistics from the office of the Secretary of State), 35% Democrat, 12% Republican, 51% Unenrolled, and balance “other party”. In polls where Libertarian Candidate, Joe Kennedy is included, he garners 3% of the vote, in this poll, 4% of those polled are “unsure” which may account for the ommission of this candidate.

Obama’s approval remains the same from this pollster, referring to the last poll taken a week ago and 48% oppose the President’s healthcare plan. More over the question asked regarding ACORN stealing the election is interesting: although it is doubtful that the majority of those polled know about the roll ACORN has played in the political arena (given the virtual news blackout by mainstream media regarding that organization) 37% show as unsure, and 25% expecting the organization to be involved in voter fraud. Had the question been posed a bit differently, as in: Do you think the Democrats in Massachusetts will try to steal the election: those numbers might have been a bit higher, due to rampant corruption associated with Beacon Hill and the majority of the electorate in the Commonwealth being well aware of said corruption.

The pollster points out that “if” Coakley can energize the base in the final hours of the campaign, she can still pull it off – however, that would be an ACORN miracle at this point in the game especially coming into the final 24 hours of the election with a favorable of 44%. Note: both candidates lost favorability with this pollster, contributed to negative campaigning.

If the pollster were confident, given the 2.8% margin of error, Brown would have Coakley by 2 points, which is still somewhat of a “toss-up” even if it is a lead. Also of interest: given the make-up of the poll and the heavy reliance on Obama’s approval, or the number of those who voted for Obama in 2008 versus McCain, one would be led to believe that Coakley, herself, hardly factors into the race. What will be the deciding factor in this race is going to be “grassroots” and organization and Coakley's campaign. That momentum lays with the Brown camp.
Projection: Brown in a squeaker, (Factoring in the Dead, Acorn and the Momentum on Browns side). It is imperative that Brown’s camp continue the push, and should Coakley continue negative advertising, the margin for Brown may end up being a point or two higher. The weather and turnout: Forecast for Tuesday, January 19th from the National Weather Service: Springfield: Rain and Snow 50%, Boston: 60%, Worcester: 60% - should the forcast hold: advantage: Brown

Obama Heckled in Massachusetts - 7 Year Old escorted from Rally - 2,000 in attendance

In the most ridiculous move of his presidency, Barak Obama flew to Massachusetts in an attempt to rally Coakley supporters. Instead, the President found anti-Coakley sentiment. A segment of the rally is shown below - video courtesy of You Tube. At one point he ended up walking away from the podium. Perhaps he didn't see the polls coming out of Public Policy Polling, where he enjoys a 44% approval rate in the Bay State, and Martha Coakley's imploding campaign just took another turn for the worse. Public Policy Polling will release a new poll tonight at approximately 10:30 eastern. From what they had gleaned so far in this second and final poll, was that Obama's popularity rose 20%, which was a 5 point bump up, however, Brown appeared to have picked up an equal amount of Democrat voters. All eyes on Massachusetts, the Bay State is poised to shake things up a bit.

Obama Schedule for Northeastern Coakely Rally - Doors Open at 1 PM

Courtesty of the Boston Globe:

President Barack Obama will headline a rally at 3 p.m. tomorrow at Northeastern University to try to boost support for Democratic US Senate candidate Martha Coakley, Coakley's campaign announced today.

Doors will open at 1 p.m. to the Solomon Court at the Cabot Center at 400 Huntington Ave.

The event is free and open to the public. The public is asked to limit personal items, and bags and umbrellas are prohibited.

The public is urged to use public transportation, either the Northeastern station on the Green Line or the Ruggles station on the Orange Line.

Mass Senate Election Update – Scott Brown has 5 point lead over Coakley – Suffolk University/Boston Globe Poll

Image AD showing Brown and Coakely's Now Infamous Watching as Aid knocks down Reporter - image Hillbuzz.org, h/t Rocky

A newly released poll from Suffolk University shows Republican Scott Brown with a 5 point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley. The poll was released on January 14th. The poll marginals available here show some interesting statistics:

90% of those polled are likely to vote in the Special Election

69% of those polled actually know when the election will be held

Poll has 39% democrats, 15% republican and 45% (other), the states actual makeup is 35% Democrat, 12% Republican and 50plus% Unenrolled.

57% have a favorable opinion of Brown, while 49% have a favorable opinion of Coakley

33% believe Massachusetts is heading in the right direction

50% would vote for Brown, 45% for Coakley

The Kennedy endorsement: 20% more likely to vote for Coakley, 27% less likely and 52% don’t care.

41% believe that Brown won the Debates, 25% believe Coakley won, 48% actually watched the debate

8% of respondents came from Suffolk University

What the Suffolk Poll tells us, coming only 5 days before the special election is that a poll, skewed towards Democrats, shows Brown surging. Suggest reading the marginals and questions to get an idea of exactly how the poll was conducted and why it might lean Democrat.

This poll was taken after a barrage of negative ads by Coakley, Coakley leaning PAC’s and the Democrat Senatorial Committee began to run. Public Policy Polling suggested they may take another poll this weekend – watch to see how those stats compare with Suffolk’s. One can hazard to guess that the 5 point lead, may stay the same, or increase, as the weekend is sure to bring the negative advertising that sank Kerry Healy’s campaign. Joe Kennedy, the Libertarian candidate was factored into the last few polls and appears to be coming in at 3% of the vote that may or may not go higher as those independents break for Brown.

The last Republican elected to the Senate in Massachusetts, and also the first African American, elected was Edward Brook. The state of Massachusetts voted twice for Ronald Reagan: the first time against Jimmy Carter in 1980. Although considered a minority party in Commonwealth, the Governor’s office is most often held by a Republican – the last to hold the office was Mitt Romney.

MA Senate Race-Boston Globe Poll – Coakley+ 15 with Poll Marginal’s Showing Sample of Majority Democrats – How Much Trouble is Coakley Really In?

University of New Hampshire Marginals MA Senate Special Election Weighed Heavily Democrat

A Boston Globe Poll released over the weekend, touts a 15 point lead for Democrat Martha Coakley over Republican Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Special Election for U.S. Senate. The poll was released immediately following the release of polls by Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling , both showing the race within a 9 to 1 point margin (Rasmussen: Coakley plus 9 with 4.5 margin of error, Public Policy Polling: Brown plus 1, with a 3.6 margin of error). Both Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling’s marginal’s were close to the actual makeup of the Massachusetts electorate: Democrats 35%, Republicans’ 11% and Unenrolled 50 plus percent.

In viewing the marginal’s used by the University of New Hampshire – Boston Globe Poll, here one finds that the sample of likely voters (see poll photo above), was comprised of: 307 Democrats, 86 Independents (Unenrolled) and 151 Republicans. This in no wise accurately represents the electoral make-up of the state. Therefore, with the fact that the poll grossly over-represents the Democrat party, how much trouble is Coakley really in when a 15 point lead is all they come up with?

Note: In addition, the likelihood of additional polling by reputable national polling companies (see Public Policy Polling), is extremely probable within the next week. Public Policy Polling correctly called the New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial Races, yet missed on the New York Special Election. In the case of the later, Public Policy Polling Data was released and completed prior to the Republican dropping out of the race and endorsing the Democrat. The type of poll released by the Boston Globe does two things: gives more incentive to Brown Supporters and sends a message to those who would vote Coakley – leaving the impression that the Globe in taking Brown’s side in this race.

Will Massachusetts Go The Way of Kentucky? Kentucky State Senate Special Election, Republican Wins by 12 Points, Despite 2 to 1 Democrat Advantage

Kentucky’s state special electionslast Tuesday resulted in two wins for Republican’s, on in the 96th district and one for State Senate in the 14th District. The State Senate Race generated greater interest in that the District was thought to be firmly in Democrat control, (Kentucky Sec. of State)with a 2 to 1 voter margin favoring the DNC. In addition, the Democrat, Jodi Hayden outspent the Republican candidate, Jimmy Higdon, focusing on job creation, while Higdon used the threat of nationalized health care and invoked the name of Nancy Pelosi – which appeared to be enough to push the district in his favor. Meanwhile, in the 96th State Congressional District, Jill York, Republican Candidate, won the seat over Democrat, Barry Webb. This is also of import due to the fact that Ms. York, is the first Republican to hold that seat in over a decade, where Registered Democrats also outnumber Republicans(Kentucky Secretary of State).

According to the blog ”The Hill”: Kentucky Democrats blamed the losses on the fact that National Issues were made the focus – so what of the Massachusetts special U.S. Senate election? After all, Massachusetts is not Kentucky – Massachusetts is seen as a northern “liberal” state (if not the most liberal), and Kentucky, a southern state, whereby most southern states are thought to be Republican strongholds. Historically, the opposite was true, the southern states being firmly in Democrat hands until the later part of the 20th century, with Republican’s (abolitionist) dominating northern states. As hearts and minds changed and the focus shifted from civil rights to labor, the Democrats picked up advantages in the north and established a stronghold in Massachusetts.

With that in mind, by all accounts, Democrat Martha Coakley should handily defeat the Republican candidate Scott Brown, simply because Democrats hold a majority status in the state. (In Massachusetts registered Democrats making up 30 plus percent of the voters, while Republicans are at approximately 11%). In addition, Coakley is expected to far outspend Brown in the short time leading up to the January 19th special election.

All politics are local

That said Coakley had been running ads up to the Democrat Primary last Tuesday, ads that promised she would go to Washington and do the President’s bidding; specifically voting for Health Care Reform. This message resonated well with the Massachusetts base – but both parties are far outnumbered by a larger force in Massachustts Politics: the unenrolleds voter which makes up the majority (50 plus percent) of registered voters in the Bay State. There are several polls on the subject, with the latest coming from CBS: noting that American’s support the Government option and, on top of that, they are willing to pay higher taxes to make this happen. Other polls, however, appear to contradict the CBS poll, With the latest polls showing that support for the administration’s health care plan has fallen to to 36 percent. Who to believe? Ask newly elected Kentucky Senate Senator, Jimmy Higdon.

In order for Coakley to win this particular election, she will have to hope that the majority of the State Electorate is of like mind – that the unenrolled voter is firmly behind the President. If not, then Brown, regardless of a disparity in Republican and Democrat registration, and a smaller “war chest”, will make history as the first Republican to hold a U.S. Senate seat from Massachusetts since the early 1970’s. Contrast and Compare the ads below to give a hint of what’s to come. All politics being local, Kentucky and Massachusetts may have more in common than one would think.

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Martha Coakley on the Need for Strong Public Option

Scott Brown on Fiscal Responsibility

Scott Brown on Kennedy’s Tax Cuts

Tuesday Elections – Will they be Predictive of 2010? Analysis VA, NJ, NY 23, California 10th and the Massachusetts Special Election - Senate Race

On Tuesday, four states are holding elections that have the eyes of the nation’s pundits and political party analysts doing a bit of hand-wringing. The Virginia Governor’s race is all but a foregone conclusion (these deductions are based on poll data from Real Clear Politics) with the race for Governor’s (and the balance of the majority of the State’s offices) going Republican. In New Jersey, it remains too close to call, as those same polls have either Corzine or Christie, up by any number of points, with Dagget, the independent in the mix; that said, the majority of the polls favor Christie, which in that Democrat stronghold, should Christie emerge as the victor, that is a real coup for the Republican Party.

The New York 23rd district and the California 10th are in play due to congressional representatives taking positions within the Obama administration. The New York 10th is being watched as it’s a drama based race, the Republican, Dede Scozzafava, bowed out of the race due to low poll numbers and has endorsed the Democrat, over Conservative Doug Hoffman. One can, given that last minute endorsement which, as her core constituency was those who would vote Republican, for the most part, those votes should transfer to either Hoffman and/or voters may still give Scozzafava the vote – whether it counts or no. In that race, like New Jersey, polls are up and down, that said; – consider that race, to likely go to Hoffman (based on those Scozzafava voters who would only vote Republican, pulling the lever for a like-minded Conservative.

Additionally, the California 10th, which has been underreported, finds the latest local news poll (CBS 5) with Democrat Garamendi up by 10 points over the Republican Harmer. Under most circumstances one would assume, given that the district is considered solid Democrat, that the Democrat would basically run away with the seat – however, something is afoot – certain conservative PAC;s have turned their attention to the 10th (and the NY 23rd and the New Jersey Governor’s race) in the past 48 hours.

This can only indicate one thing – the GOP nor for that matter any conservative, is never known to throw “good money after bad” – they may “smell blood” – If Harmon doesn’t outright win the election, then the fact that he comes within striking distance of the Democrat in this particular district is a real signal as to how hard the Democrats must work to keep their jobs in 2010.

Historically speaking, the house changes hand every three to four terms (or 4 to six years) – As the Democrats have controlled both houses since 2006, historical logic dictates that it is probable a change is going to occur giving Republican’s the edge. Therefore, two of the four races, historically would go Republican (the same is true for state Governors, a back and forth between political parties is the norm) that said, should three or all four of the races turn to the “right”, then that would herald something a bit more interesting, a shift in the mindset of the voting populace towards the right. Once the dust clears, it will be interesting to see how these states and districts voted by party affiliation – as it may not only be a rejection of the Democrat by Republicans (given), or Independents (looking increasingly given) but by the rank and file (moderates) of the Democrat Party).

If the GOP or the NRSC throw anything at all to the Special Election in Massachusetts in January, then the handwriting will be further imprinted upon the wall. In the special election to replace Ted Kennedy, a primary battle of some media magnitude is being hard fought by the Democrats, Coakley, Capuano and Pagliuca and Khaezi, as of this writing that, although the GOP has a viable candidate in Republican Scott Brown, he must face a primary from Jackie Robinson, who filed signatures last week . Should Brown win the primary in December (which give his grassroots campaign and Robinson’s lack thereof), if the NRSC and the GOP start to throw anything at all in Brown’s direction, that will signal more than an historical electoral pattern. Although, many pundits are now calling this race, “safe” by virtue of Massachusetts being Massachusetts, this is the next race to watch as far as the state of mind of the voting electorate. Should Brown receive any support from the RNC (NRSC) and become the second Republican Senator in over 3 decades from Massachusetts, that will be clearly indicative of the mind of the electorate, and the end to purely party driven voting for at the very least the 2010 and possibly 2012 cycles.

Scott Brown, MA Senate, Contemplates run for vacant Kennedy Seat – Formal Announcement Possible This Week - The Field of Contenders - Analysis

Scott Brown - Mass Senate -Image: sunchronicle

From The Boston Globe: Massachusetts State Senator, Scott Brown, will announce today, if he will run for the U.S. Senate Seat left vacant with the passing of Sen. Ted Kennedy. Brown conducted a survey on Facebook over the weekend, asking for input across the State; the responses, from a variety of Party affiliations, was extremely positive – Therefore, it is more than probable that Brown will enter the race today, if positive feedback is any indication.

The other contenders (mainly speculation) that will face off in a primary on December 9th; to date are Martha Oakley and Joe Kennedy has opted out of the race, as of today. On the Republican side, , Jeff Beatty and Jim Godowsky have been mentioned,(both ran against Kerry in 2008) as well as Michael Sullivan, former U.S. Attorney, and Chris Egan, a former U.S. Ambassador, Andrew Card, former State Representative, and Bob Barr, a Canton Selectman. Curt Shilling, baseball player, and independent is also considering a run for the Senate. Currently, Coakley is the only one who has officially announced her intent to run.

Out of that lofty field of politico’s, Brown is the only one who has current legislative experience, as a Massachusetts State Senator. Brown also offers his constituents the transparency that is often not delivered. He also writes monthly newsletters which are emailed to constituents, as well as legislative updates on his personal website: Scott Brown.com His State Legislative website, , is more of a legislative resume and offers some insight into his role in the Massachusetts Senate.

Brown is known as a fiscal conservative, and social moderate, should one take the time to investigate his voting record, he appears to listen to the concerns of his constituents, without divorcing himself from the reality of his position as a citizen legislator, hired by the people - not your typical east coast elitist. Based upon his past experience, and performance, his willingness to communicate with his constituents, Scott Brown gives the voters a solid option to Martha Coakley (which, as of this writing, it would appear that Coakley and Brown would be the two strongest candidates coming out of a primary on the 8th of December. The special election is slated for the 19th of January.

As for Coakley, she may be perceived as a member of the Patrick administration, which will likely translate into a three-fold burden in a general election: one, the aforementioned association with Deval Patrick. Secondly, the Democrat brand is damaged - even in Massachusetts (see current Polling at Real Clear Politics 2009 and 2010 races), nationwide polling suggests that Republican’s or Independent Candidates stand to best their Democrat counterparts as of this moment (polling and perception are subject to change).
Additionally, and much to this writers angst, women in Massachusetts general elections do not, historically, fare well – the last to run was Democrat Shannon O’Brien, who lost to Mitt Romney in 2004. Jane Swift, a Republican, held the seat as an Acting Govenor, not elected. Kerry Healey was the last women to run (against Deval Patrick), and lost by a significant margin (most of that attributed to negative campaign ads and a bad Republican Brand.)

Therefore, if the race boils down to a Coakley/Brown general election, Browns experience and ability to connect with constituents, a stronger Republican (or Conservative is more appropriate) brand given the majority of Massachusetts voters are designated unenrolled), would, in all likelihood, best Coakley in any match up.