Rasmussen: Gingrich Tops Field in Latest Poll by 21 Points, Trust in National Security at 36% over Nearest Competitor Mitt Romney - Analysis

The current 2012 field - image pensitoreview.com


Newt Gingrich has taken a significant lead in the lasted Rasmussen poll, topping Mitt Romney by 21 points to lead the field with 38%. The Poll taken on the 30th of November and released December 1st by Rasmussen was based on 1000 likely GOP voters with a margin of error of plus/minus 3. The balance of the candidates polled as follows: Romney 17%, Cain 8%, Paul 8%, and Perry 4%, Santorum 4%, Bachmann 4%, Huntsman 3%, other 3%, and a narrowing field of. Should Herman Cain drop out of the race, the pickup for other candidates appears to favor Gingrich and Romney, with Gingrich at 43% and Romney at 19%. What this implies is that, of those polled, Gingrich and Romney are now considered the two top candidates going into Iowa and New Hampshire in 4 weeks.

Additionally, given the high rating on National Security issues, those polled are most likely closing watching the debates; where one saw Gingrich poll numbers take a turn upward after the National Security Debate held on November 22, and sponsored broadcast on CNN. The poll, which featured 73% Identified Republican and the balance as other, also indicated that Gingrich has the lead among both Republicans and Other Affiliations, as well as across ideological lines, all religious affiliations lines with the exception of “other” which went to Mitt Romney.

How firmly are those polled tied to a particular candidate? 42% are certain of their vote for Gingrich, with 35% on the fence, while Romney has 18% certain and 17% on the fence. The race, therefore, remains somewhat fluid.

More over with the Iowa and New Hampshire caucus /primary on the horizon, there are three debates prior to the caucus and primary in New Hampshire: December 10, 2011, co - sponsored by the Des Moines Register and the Iowa Republican Party and broadcast on ABC News at 9:00 PM eastern, December 15th, on Fox sponsored by the Iowa Republican Party at 9PM eastern and finally December 19th, PBS sponsored by the Des Moines Register, Iowa Public Television, PBS NEWSHOUR, Google and YouTube, at 4 PM EST.
It will be the performance at the debates that will allow for these candidates to make their point, not only to the Republican and likely Republican voters in each state for the respective primacy and caucus, but for all viewers, regardless of political affiliation, who may be seeking an alternative within the Republican Party.

As of this past week, Gallup suggested that from an historical perspective: Obama’s job approval was not encouraging for reelection. The President has an approval rating in this third year that is consistent with that of Jimmy Carter, and historically, if he were to win reelection, it would be an anomaly.

As to Newt Gingrich – now that he is at the top of the field, he has come under “scrutiny” from both his opposition candidates as well as the media (to be expected) – However, there are fewer questions arising regarding Gingrich’s background due to the fact that, of all the candidates, he has been the most “vetted” throughout his public life. Additionally, Gingrich has the ability, from all appearances, to swat away any criticism with ease, and has no compunction about meeting journalist head on in any venue. On the other hand, Romney, as the closest to Gingrich in polling, has had a dismal performance with a Fox News Journalist, Bret Bair. Romney appeared more than a bit uncomfortable taking questions, which could be due to several factors, such as the tight schedule that these candidates keep, causing exhaustion, the end result being a somewhat “testy” candidate. There have been, across the field, good and bad debate performances; however, Gingrich appears to have performed the best, in the majority of debates.

Should polls for Gingrich push him about the 40 percentile going into the early caucus and primary states, and should he take two of three early states (or all three for that matter), then one might see an early front runner as the established candidate for the nomination.

Although detractors in the media and the DNC are touting Gingrich as the one which Obama would prefer as his opposition on the basis of the DNC running ads against Mitt Romney (which are predictably about his change on position over the years on a range of issues, making him akin to John Kerry, (D-MA), the King of the Flip-Flops) - it is somewhat odd that one would consider that a sign that Gingrich is the preferred candidate of Team Obama. It is the silence on Gingrich, which gives pause. Perhaps that is because he has not, in the minds of the Democrat strategists, been in the “front runner” long enough, and alternately, there is little for them to say about Gingrich, that cannot be doubled for either their current or previous office holder. It would appear therefore, that by attacking Romney, they are pushing his “front-runner” status, in hopes that he will be recognized as the perpetual front runner, and that it is Romney who they would prefer to run against Barack Obama.

The aforementioned conclusion based on the fact, that consistently, as poll watchers, analysis and strategist, surely noted Romney holding 20 to 25% over the past 8 years, which, when taken in context, shows a candidate who may be weak in key areas, and unable to garner the support necessary, even within his own party going into a general election. Recent polling appears to be bearing that out, as one front runner after another has emerged.

2012 GOP Polls: Gingrich Tied National Gallup, Dead Heat With Romney in NH – Most Capable to Meet Obama in Debate forum

The GOP Field, (sans Romney), at the Iowa 2012 Thanksgiving Family Forum

A newly released National Poll by Gallup shows Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in a virtual “tie” – out of 1062 Republicans and Republican leaning independents, Romney Leads Gingrich by 1 point, however, out of the Registered Voters, Gingrich leads Romney by 1 point, with the next closest candidate Herman Cain at 16%, and Dr. Ron Paul at 10% - the uncommitted, or undecided’s are still fairly high in national polls, at 19%. This may be due to the difficultly one might have choosing one candidate over another in this talent heavy GOP group. With the exception of Mitt Romney who has failed to rise about the 20 percent mark in almost every national poll, the balances of the candidates have seen poll numbers fluid.

Reviewing 2008 polling, Romney faced a similar scenario, with a solid base of supporters going into the early voting and caucus states through Super Tuesday, where, at that point, it was evident McCain and Huckabee were the two top tiers, candidates. However, at this time in the race in 2008, McCain was still not considered a front-runner, although rising in the polls, it was marginal.

Therefore, with at the least 4 to 5 solid candidates and six weeks to go until Iowa votes, it remains to be see exactly who will rise – bets right now are off on the following: Perry, Paul, Gingrich, Bachmann and Romney in Iowa – The reason is the high number of uncommitted (or those having a difficult time making a choice in candidate, not as the pundits pontificate the field is weak, rather, the opposite, where there are several strong candidate from which to choose. A great deal will depend upon which candidate can rise above the balance in the key states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and carry a majority going forward through Super Tuesday in February.

Speaking of New Hampshire: Gingrich is now tied with Romney (Wall Street Journal), in what has been known as Romney’s “state”. Again, there are those heavy numbers of undecided, which may propel a candidate, otherwise “given up for dead” to the top. This is the case for any national polls, however, the New Hampshire poll is telling, as Romney has consistently lead in New Hampshire in double digits, this was prior to the insurgence of the more Conservative Tea Party movement in the state in 2010 and forward bringing the State of New Hampshire into the “Red” column, in both the legislature, Governors Seat and Federal offices. Romney is known as a more moderate candidate, appealing to beltway pundits, and the national GOP.

Gingrich, although having somewhat of a “past”, is in a unique position to take advantage of the current status. He played well to a large audience of evangelicals in the Thanksgiving forum on Saturday (link to video available on this blog), in Iowa, hosted by the powerful, Focus on the Family. In the instance of any infidelities on the part of Gingrich, going back decades, his evident faith and lifestyle, is resounding with evangelicals and those of other faiths, while to Democrats seeking an alternative to Barack Obama, it matters little, (see Herman Cain Sexual Abuse Allegations and Bill Clinton).

Additionally, the brouhaha some conservatives (most likely opposition candidates) are making about his firm consulting Freddie and Fannie is not universally accepted. The point being that his business (consulting) was hired by multiple firms, The fact that this is a public firm (and the questions remains why this is a public firm), has some campaigns complaining that Gingrich took the taxpayer’s dollars. However, when one looks at the balance of the field, Congressional Reps, former Senators and Governor, the only one on the panel who did not take “taxpayer's dollars” in one form or the other is Herman Cain.

The next debate is the 22nd, of November on CNN, and will, once again, determine the rise or fall or solidify the positions held by the candidates. With each opportunity to view the candidates in a debate and/or forum setting, those potential GOP voters (who were so intent on watching the last CBS debate, which was broadcast on CBS for one hour with the final hour shown on the CBSNews website) crashed the CBS News website – apparently CBS either was not prepared or believed there would be such a lack of interest that they did not believe that their audience would choose a GOP debate over a rerun. Go figure.

That said, out of the entire field, should Gingrich continue to perform in the debates, as he has in those held to date, one should see Gingrich’s stock rise. It is the fact that those traditional GOP voters, as well as leaning Independents, and yes, Democrats who are moderate, are looking for the individual who will be able to out-perform Obama in the debate arena – Gingrich is clearly capable in that regards.