The current 2012 field - image pensitoreview.com
Newt Gingrich has taken a significant lead in the lasted Rasmussen poll, topping Mitt Romney by 21 points to lead the field with 38%. The Poll taken on the 30th of November and released December 1st by Rasmussen was based on 1000 likely GOP voters with a margin of error of plus/minus 3. The balance of the candidates polled as follows: Romney 17%, Cain 8%, Paul 8%, and Perry 4%, Santorum 4%, Bachmann 4%, Huntsman 3%, other 3%, and a narrowing field of. Should Herman Cain drop out of the race, the pickup for other candidates appears to favor Gingrich and Romney, with Gingrich at 43% and Romney at 19%. What this implies is that, of those polled, Gingrich and Romney are now considered the two top candidates going into Iowa and New Hampshire in 4 weeks.
Additionally, given the high rating on National Security issues, those polled are most likely closing watching the debates; where one saw Gingrich poll numbers take a turn upward after the National Security Debate held on November 22, and sponsored broadcast on CNN. The poll, which featured 73% Identified Republican and the balance as other, also indicated that Gingrich has the lead among both Republicans and Other Affiliations, as well as across ideological lines, all religious affiliations lines with the exception of “other” which went to Mitt Romney.
How firmly are those polled tied to a particular candidate? 42% are certain of their vote for Gingrich, with 35% on the fence, while Romney has 18% certain and 17% on the fence. The race, therefore, remains somewhat fluid.
More over with the Iowa and New Hampshire caucus /primary on the horizon, there are three debates prior to the caucus and primary in New Hampshire: December 10, 2011, co - sponsored by the Des Moines Register and the Iowa Republican Party and broadcast on ABC News at 9:00 PM eastern, December 15th, on Fox sponsored by the Iowa Republican Party at 9PM eastern and finally December 19th, PBS sponsored by the Des Moines Register, Iowa Public Television, PBS NEWSHOUR, Google and YouTube, at 4 PM EST.
It will be the performance at the debates that will allow for these candidates to make their point, not only to the Republican and likely Republican voters in each state for the respective primacy and caucus, but for all viewers, regardless of political affiliation, who may be seeking an alternative within the Republican Party.
As of this past week, Gallup suggested that from an historical perspective: Obama’s job approval was not encouraging for reelection. The President has an approval rating in this third year that is consistent with that of Jimmy Carter, and historically, if he were to win reelection, it would be an anomaly.
As to Newt Gingrich – now that he is at the top of the field, he has come under “scrutiny” from both his opposition candidates as well as the media (to be expected) – However, there are fewer questions arising regarding Gingrich’s background due to the fact that, of all the candidates, he has been the most “vetted” throughout his public life. Additionally, Gingrich has the ability, from all appearances, to swat away any criticism with ease, and has no compunction about meeting journalist head on in any venue. On the other hand, Romney, as the closest to Gingrich in polling, has had a dismal performance with a Fox News Journalist, Bret Bair. Romney appeared more than a bit uncomfortable taking questions, which could be due to several factors, such as the tight schedule that these candidates keep, causing exhaustion, the end result being a somewhat “testy” candidate. There have been, across the field, good and bad debate performances; however, Gingrich appears to have performed the best, in the majority of debates.
Should polls for Gingrich push him about the 40 percentile going into the early caucus and primary states, and should he take two of three early states (or all three for that matter), then one might see an early front runner as the established candidate for the nomination.
Although detractors in the media and the DNC are touting Gingrich as the one which Obama would prefer as his opposition on the basis of the DNC running ads against Mitt Romney (which are predictably about his change on position over the years on a range of issues, making him akin to John Kerry, (D-MA), the King of the Flip-Flops) - it is somewhat odd that one would consider that a sign that Gingrich is the preferred candidate of Team Obama. It is the silence on Gingrich, which gives pause. Perhaps that is because he has not, in the minds of the Democrat strategists, been in the “front runner” long enough, and alternately, there is little for them to say about Gingrich, that cannot be doubled for either their current or previous office holder. It would appear therefore, that by attacking Romney, they are pushing his “front-runner” status, in hopes that he will be recognized as the perpetual front runner, and that it is Romney who they would prefer to run against Barack Obama.
The aforementioned conclusion based on the fact, that consistently, as poll watchers, analysis and strategist, surely noted Romney holding 20 to 25% over the past 8 years, which, when taken in context, shows a candidate who may be weak in key areas, and unable to garner the support necessary, even within his own party going into a general election. Recent polling appears to be bearing that out, as one front runner after another has emerged.
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