Major Parties Court the South – Convention Placement for Democrats not Without Controversy - 2012 Begins

It goes without saying, that one cannot win a Presidential election without those Southern States, specifically those considered “swing” states one way or another -always considered more Conservative than the rest of the country, and there have been shifts in recent years, especially with the short-lived emergence of blue dog Democrat candidates. The 2010 Mid-terms, for all intents and purposes, changed the landscape from the mid-west to the west, to the northeast, with the usual glaring exceptions of the States of California, Massachusetts and New York. Therefore, the South, Florida specifically as a swing state of sorts, would be a logical location for the RNC to set up camp.

The RNC choice of Tampa, in the state of Florida, is somewhat of a “safe” choice, given the strength of the Republican party in the state, and the recent election of Mark Rubio, Tea Party/Republican, to the Senate. The setting is urban, and Tampa, like so many urban areas in Florida, could be any eastern city, with the exception of geography. The psychological implications of this setting, therefore, are twofold, demoralize the opposition and shore up the base.

On the other hand, the Democrats chose Charlotte, North Carolina, stepped in the history of the South, currently has one Democrat and one Republican Senator, their Congressional Representatives are split 7 republicans to 6 Democrats, and the state can be considered a swing state, having 15 electoral votes (2010). The south was, historically a Democrat stronghold up until the 1940’s, university logic suggests that with the Democrat Party adopting a civil rights platform, southern Democrats were disenfranchised and looked towards another party. In addition, as the decades progressed, the strong Christian base in the south, rejected the platform Why not at least attempt to reclaim some of the south by placing a Convention in Charlotte?

There are some objections, mainly form the key supports of the Democrat Party – the unions North Carolina has right to work laws, and are extremely unfriendly environments to unions. Who according to Politco, are not at all pleased with the choice of the Convention site, due to its anti-union atmosphere. One might however, take a closer look at early polling down by Democrat leaning polling firm Public Policy Polling which has been polling the country since the mid-terms in 2010. On hypothetical Republican primaries, as well as hypothetical match-ups between Obama and those Republicans used in the polls (most notably: Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and New Gingrich) the results are rather interesting. In most instances, the President does not fare well, however, he does best Huckabee in North Carolina, not as strong a showing as say the newly released poll from California, or polls taken in Massachusetts, but in order for this projected one-term president to get a toehold, in states other than California and Massachustts, he would need to stake out the south. No sense preaching to the choir.

Note: Massachusetts has, for decades, consistently voted Democrat in Presidential elections with the only exceptions being: Ronald Reagan, where the Bay State, not once, but twice, went red.
With the choice of convention cities, and the Obama campaign staff in place in Chicago, the race for 2012 is on. The only question now remaining is who will be included in the pack of Republican Primary candidates. Mitt Romney, former 1 term Govenor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts has all but officially announced. He would be the first from this observation. Newt Gingrich may be the second, he already has given an indication he will run (while in Georgia). Mike Huckabee, who is polling extremely well, is holding any announcements until summer; likewise Palin, who may be under contractual agreements with Fox and also, may want the time to test the water. One would gather though, that Huckabee, who, along with Romney ran in 2008, would decide one way or another earlier, perhaps forming an exploratory committee sometime in February and announcing shortly thereafter, if, his 2008 pattern holds true. Others who have announced they are thinking of running, Donald Trump (who will also announce in June (or the spring), Rick Santorum, former Senator from the State of Pennsylvania, that said, those with the most name recognition now, will stand the best chance at reaching the electorate needed to push a primary challenge. Those who are utilizing social media, and the media in general, will again, have an advantage with this obvious media engaged nation.